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Ridiculously early 2017 Predictions

Started by redleg, May 19, 2017, 01:25:43 pm

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Hollywood_HOGan45


b-ball coach

6-6 with a few collapses as normal under this staff.

 

bennyl08

Quote from: bphi11ips on May 19, 2017, 05:41:29 pm
Experience.

Fair enough. Though that can be a bad thing as well. They are returning players that were downright awful last year. As in, our defense last year genuinely looked good compared to their offense. Their defense this year looked like our defense last year.

Sure, I expect their players to improve from year to year. However, their coaching staff has a history of underperforming, especially on offense. If they improve 50 spots on offense and defense, this coming year from last year, which would be an insane coaching performance, they'd still be a worse team than we were last year and by all accounts, we should be a much better team this coming year than we were last year.
Quote from: PorkSoda on May 05, 2016, 09:24:05 pm
damn I thought it was only a color, didn't realize it was named after a liqueur. leave it to benny to make me research the history of chartreuse

bphi11ips

Quote from: bennyl08 on May 20, 2017, 07:33:54 pm
Fair enough. Though that can be a bad thing as well. They are returning players that were downright awful last year. As in, our defense last year genuinely looked good compared to their offense. Their defense this year looked like our defense last year.

Sure, I expect their players to improve from year to year. However, their coaching staff has a history of underperforming, especially on offense. If they improve 50 spots on offense and defense, this coming year from last year, which would be an insane coaching performance, they'd still be a worse team than we were last year and by all accounts, we should be a much better team this coming year than we were last year.

Wasn't referring to South Carolina's experience.  Was referring to mine.

You may or may not ever figure out that football is not entirely a game of measurables.  Even professional football is dependent on intangibles, but college is very much a game of itangibles, especially where teams are otherwise fairly closely matched.

A&M, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Missouri are all closely bunched in ESPN's much too early Power Index.  If the game were held today, South Carolina would probably be giving up four points to Arkansas if the Index were the indicator. 

I don't put much faith in computer simulations, but I do look at where the game is played and where it falls on the schedule.  Arkansas is 8-2 against South Carolina at home, but we're 5-6 in Columbia.  Reports out of Spring have been that SC has found a QB.  Maybe so.  But Muschamp is a defensive guy and I don't feel real warm and fuzzy right now about our offense with no proven go-to receivers or TEs and nothing beyond a true sophomore at RB.  Defenses have an advantage at home.  See LSU and Ole Miss in 2014. 

I think TCU is overrated in the Index.  Still can't figure out why they're such a media darling.Jerry World is about as neutral as neutral gets.  I think Ole Miss is about to cave from the drama.  We get Missouri and Mississippi State at home, and Mississippi State is overrated as well, at least in the Index.

So - that's why I think South Carolina is the toughest of the games that can go either way.
Life is too short for grudges and feuds.

HamSammich


LRRandy

This is fun, isn't it.

HamSammich


Hoggiedawg

Quote from: East Clintwood on May 20, 2017, 02:04:23 pm
6 - 6,  and I think that's being generous.

This.  D is going to kill us again.

Bubba's Bruisers

Quote from: Augustus on May 20, 2017, 02:19:34 pm
We've lost our WR Corps from last year, a great TE, our starting RB, and we're overhauling our defensive scheme...

I'm sincerely curious why you think we'll do better this year, versus last year (which included several meltdowns)?

Yes. We aren't suddenly better in 2017.  The defense especially will have some struggles.  7 wins tops and a trip to Memphis. 
I will put enmity between you and the woman, and between your offspring and her offspring; he shall bruise your head, and you shall bruise his heal.

Genesis 3:15

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: Bubba's Bruisers on May 21, 2017, 08:24:03 am
Yes. We aren't suddenly better in 2017.  The defense especially will have some struggles.  7 wins tops and a trip to Memphis. 

The thing is, whether it is on this board or in the media, no one knows how good our #2 and #3 RB's are going to be, no one knows for sure if our group of TE's are going to pan out, no one knows if the WR's are going to be as good as last year, better or worse, no one knows for certain if the defense is going to be better or worse and the same goes for our O-Line. So naturally, in the absence of such information, people are going to pick us low or pick us to lose or pick us middle of road (6-6). I'll be glad when the season gets here. About 102 days to go.
Go Hogs Go!

Steef

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on May 21, 2017, 11:14:14 am
The thing is, whether it is on this board or in the media, no one knows how good our #2 and #3 RB's are going to be, no one knows for sure if our group of TE's are going to pan out, no one knows if the WR's are going to be as good as last year, better or worse, no one knows for certain if the defense is going to be better or worse and the same goes for our O-Line. So naturally, in the absence of such information, people are going to pick us low or pick us to lose or pick us middle of road (6-6). I'll be glad when the season gets here. About 102 days to go.

Agree. At this point, it's all guess work for HV.


bphi11ips

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on May 21, 2017, 11:14:14 am
The thing is, whether it is on this board or in the media, no one knows how good our #2 and #3 RB's are going to be, no one knows for sure if our group of TE's are going to pan out, no one knows if the WR's are going to be as good as last year, better or worse, no one knows for certain if the defense is going to be better or worse and the same goes for our O-Line. So naturally, in the absence of such information, people are going to pick us low or pick us to lose or pick us middle of road (6-6). I'll be glad when the season gets here. About 102 days to go.

Very good list.
Life is too short for grudges and feuds.

GuvHog

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on May 21, 2017, 11:14:14 am
The thing is, whether it is on this board or in the media, no one knows how good our #2 and #3 RB's are going to be, no one knows for sure if our group of TE's are going to pan out, no one knows if the WR's are going to be as good as last year, better or worse, no one knows for certain if the defense is going to be better or worse and the same goes for our O-Line. So naturally, in the absence of such information, people are going to pick us low or pick us to lose or pick us middle of road (6-6). I'll be glad when the season gets here. About 102 days to go.

I think it's a pretty safe bet that Maleek Williams will be the #2 RB. The coaches were really raving about him during spring practice. Day transferring out is a good indicator that he saw the writing on the wall too.
Bleeding Razorback Red Since Birth!!!

 

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: GuvHog on May 21, 2017, 12:42:51 pm
I think it's a pretty safe bet that Maleek Williams will be the #2 RB. The coaches were really raving about him during spring practice. Day transferring out is a good indicator that he saw the writing on the wall too.

Yeah, I didn't say he wouldn't be, I just said that at this point, it is unknown how good he or our #3 will be. I know what the staff said and I think he will be a surprise to a lot of folks, but at this point we have nothing but staff and team reports to go by.
Go Hogs Go!

Steef

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on May 21, 2017, 01:15:57 pm
Yeah, I didn't say he wouldn't be, I just said that at this point, it is unknown how good he or our #3 will be. I know what the staff said and I think he will be a surprise to a lot of folks, but at this point we have nothing but staff and team reports to go by.

As we have discussed many times before, most RBs know how to run the ball. Once they learn the new lingo, off they go.

It's the blocking schemes that separate the newbies from the seasoned upper classmen.

Reports from spring practice were...'Maleek is really getting the blocking schemes' (my own paraphrase). That was BEFORE Rawleigh went down. I hope it's true, 'cause THAT ONE FACTOR...will be the difference this year between having a successful running game...or killing Whaley. We have to have two RBs and Maleek has to block.

Unfortunately, it was a practice report and I don't much believe them any more.

But... it could happen. I hope it does.

Augustus

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on May 21, 2017, 11:14:14 am
The thing is, whether it is on this board or in the media, no one knows how good our #2 and #3 RB's are going to be, no one knows for sure if our group of TE's are going to pan out, no one knows if the WR's are going to be as good as last year, better or worse, no one knows for certain if the defense is going to be better or worse and the same goes for our O-Line. So naturally, in the absence of such information, people are going to pick us low or pick us to lose or pick us middle of road (6-6). I'll be glad when the season gets here. About 102 days to go.

I would also add to this:  no one knows how good our backup QBs are.

Because, if our OL continues to allow defenses to get to Austin Allen like they did last year?  We may very well could be watching a #2 in the top spot.

hobhog


PonderinHog

12-0!  Is that ridiculous and early enough ???

jgphillips3

This needs to be a 9-3 type year.  I'm hoping for 8-4.  I'm afraid 7-5 is an all too real possibility.

ATU HOG

I want to be optimistic... I really do.

What worries me is there is always a learning period for replacing lots of starters.  On the offensive side of the ball we want to believe that there won't be a gap between last year and this year with the receivers.  There almost always is though.  We see talent and potential but in reality potential is exactly that... an unproven thing.  Tag that with losing our number 1 running back, I am a little worried.  We will be lacking experience this year in the skill positions besides QB.

The line should be improved, but I'm not buying into the coach talk.  I was skeptical last year, this year we should be improved though.  Gibson is hopefully going to roll with the 1's and lets hope the Froholdt experiment has a better outcome this year.  Anytime you move people positions and that person becomes an automatic starter it's cause for concern.

Schedule has a possibility of 9-3.  Reality tells me 7-5

Al Boarland

Quote from: ATU HOG on May 22, 2017, 09:51:01 am
I want to be optimistic... I really do.

What worries me is there is always a learning period for replacing lots of starters.  On the offensive side of the ball we want to believe that there won't be a gap between last year and this year with the receivers.  There almost always is though.  We see talent and potential but in reality potential is exactly that... an unproven thing.  Tag that with losing our number 1 running back, I am a little worried.  We will be lacking experience this year in the skill positions besides QB.

The line should be improved, but I'm not buying into the coach talk.  I was skeptical last year, this year we should be improved though.  Gibson is hopefully going to roll with the 1's and lets hope the Froholdt experiment has a better outcome this year.  Anytime you move people positions and that person becomes an automatic starter it's cause for concern.

Schedule has a possibility of 9-3.  Reality tells me 7-5

A pragmatic post. Well done.

jkstock04

We are staring in the face of another 6-8 win season. Vegas has set the over/under win total at 7 for us...so that's about right.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

bennyl08

Quote from: ATU HOG on May 22, 2017, 09:51:01 am
I want to be optimistic... I really do.

What worries me is there is always a learning period for replacing lots of starters.  On the offensive side of the ball we want to believe that there won't be a gap between last year and this year with the receivers.  There almost always is though.  We see talent and potential but in reality potential is exactly that... an unproven thing.  Tag that with losing our number 1 running back, I am a little worried.  We will be lacking experience this year in the skill positions besides QB.

The line should be improved, but I'm not buying into the coach talk.  I was skeptical last year, this year we should be improved though.  Gibson is hopefully going to roll with the 1's and lets hope the Froholdt experiment has a better outcome this year.  Anytime you move people positions and that person becomes an automatic starter it's cause for concern.

Schedule has a possibility of 9-3.  Reality tells me 7-5

On defense, only two positions will be played by people that don't have significant playing time. Only 1 position if we are in a nickel.

Don't think anybody out there will say there won't be some mistakes. Stewart, Pettway, and Jones are all faster than Hatcher and Morgan were. Martin coming in will be the fastest, biggest guy we've had since Childs. Bigger than Childs though not quite as fast. Route running and consistent catching from these is simply something we will have to take the coach's word on until we can see them live in action. The other good news with the receivers is that Austin actually has some good chemistry with them. He was the backup until last year, so he already has some good chemistry with Pettway and Stewart, plus we can't forget Cornelius and Martin and I think Nance have been here since spring.
Quote from: PorkSoda on May 05, 2016, 09:24:05 pm
damn I thought it was only a color, didn't realize it was named after a liqueur. leave it to benny to make me research the history of chartreuse

redleg

Martin is faster than Childs. Childs did not have blazing speed. He was tall, lanky, good route runner, with great hands. Brandon Martin is built thicker than Childs was, is an inch taller, and has been clocked at 4.38 in the forty. I don't know if that is a hand held time or a laser time, but there is a big difference between the two, and a 4.5 will not usually translate to a 4.38 with a hand time. Either way, Martin is faster than Childs was, and he's faster than most of the receivers on the team, except Jordan Jones, and maybe Deon Stewart. I am hopeful he steps up and becomes a major threat for Arkansas, ala Boo Williams.
:razorback:
If it ain't broke, fix it till it is.

 

bennyl08

Quote from: redleg on May 26, 2017, 01:16:22 pm
Martin is faster than Childs. Childs did not have blazing speed. He was tall, lanky, good route runner, with great hands. Brandon Martin is built thicker than Childs was, is an inch taller, and has been clocked at 4.38 in the forty. I don't know if that is a hand held time or a laser time, but there is a big difference between the two, and a 4.5 will not usually translate to a 4.38 with a hand time. Either way, Martin is faster than Childs was, and he's faster than most of the receivers on the team, except Jordan Jones, and maybe Deon Stewart. I am hopeful he steps up and becomes a major threat for Arkansas, ala Boo Williams.
:razorback:

Yeah, 4.39 forty time isn't blazing speed. That is what Child's ran at his pro day. I believe the pro day forties were laser finished but hand started. His combine time was a 4.55, but he also wasn't fully healed. For example, his vertical improved by a whopping 4 inches suggesting that different methodology doesn't nearly explain the difference in performance.

Put on tape of Childs and Martin and Martin is very obviously slower than Childs on the field. Martin reminds me a lot of Brandon Marshall.
Quote from: PorkSoda on May 05, 2016, 09:24:05 pm
damn I thought it was only a color, didn't realize it was named after a liqueur. leave it to benny to make me research the history of chartreuse

goodguytex

I'm going with 8-4 or 9-3. Losses to Bama, LSWho, or the road. Might lose to Auburn at home. Our Oline and Defense should be much improved.

j-mann

8-4  anything less  and i wouild call Chip Kelly or charlie stong   
calling the hogs from Jonesboro    i have  cerebral  palsy  Rheumatoid arthritis   and Chronic Fatigue Syndrome   i cannot space  well  or spell well   but i still  love the hogs

Hoggish1


Hoggish1

Quote from: bennyl08 on May 19, 2017, 03:00:58 pm
FAM: bigly win 1-0

BIGLY? LMAO
TCU: Close win at their place. Both teams lost/return a similar amount, but now in our place. Should be a win. 2-0

BINGO

aTm: This game has been very close for a long time with us not quite pulling out a victory. They lose a lot more than they return but until proven otherwise, will label this a toss-up. 2-0-1

WIN

NMst: 3-0-1

BINGO

@SC: Their defense was worse than our offense, their offense was ridiculously worse than our defense. Lets assume the worst and they improve by 50 spots on both sides of the ball this year. That gives them a top 10 defense which we've been able to put up 30 points on multiple occasions under Enos and an offense that still isn't even approaching top 50. Even at their place, should be a win. 4-0-1

BINGO

@Bama: until proven otherwise, 4-1-1

BINGO

Auburn: Last year was an anomaly for their team, our team, and our games against their team. I'll assume a regression to the norm, especially in our place. 4-1-2

WIN

@OM: We've won quite a bit against them, they've lost more talent than they've recruited, but playing at their place is hard. I definitely lean towards a win here, but I'll be conservative and label it a toss up 4-1-3

WIN

CCU: 5-1-3

BINGO

@LSU: This game is always a toss up. 5-1-4
MSU: They return fitz who should be improved, but lose a lot of the surrounding cast again. I'm going 6-1-4

BINGO

Mizz: We've been the better team for most of the games against them. Game this year is in our house. However, they had arguably the best offense in the SEC last year (to go along with the worst defense) and return almost all of that offense. Could bode troubles for us. Like OM, I lean towards the victory here, but I'll go extra conservative and label it a toss up. 6-1-5.

BINGO

Final score: 6-1-5

There is no way we shouldn't win at least 6 games. 2 of the 5 tossups are strong leans towards winning, but I'm remaining conservative here. If we split the toss-ups, that puts us at 8-9 regular season wins. Given the level of the toss ups, My baseline prediction next year is for 9 wins.


I'll go you one more and say 10.  Bigly,...

HiggiePiggy

Quote from: j-mann on May 26, 2017, 08:44:07 pm
8-4  anything less  and i wouild call Chip Kelly or charlie stong   

Charlie strong?  Why?
If a man speaks and no woman is around to hear him, is he still wrong?

Hoggish1

Quote from: bennyl08 on May 19, 2017, 03:00:58 pm
FAM: bigly win 1-0

BIGLY? LMAO
TCU: Close win at their place. Both teams lost/return a similar amount, but now in our place. Should be a win. 2-0

BINGO

aTm: This game has been very close for a long time with us not quite pulling out a victory. They lose a lot more than they return but until proven otherwise, will label this a toss-up. 2-0-1

WIN

NMst: 3-0-1

BINGO

@SC: Their defense was worse than our offense, their offense was ridiculously worse than our defense. Lets assume the worst and they improve by 50 spots on both sides of the ball this year. That gives them a top 10 defense which we've been able to put up 30 points on multiple occasions under Enos and an offense that still isn't even approaching top 50. Even at their place, should be a win. 4-0-1

BINGO

@Bama: until proven otherwise, 4-1-1

BINGO

Auburn: Last year was an anomaly for their team, our team, and our games against their team. I'll assume a regression to the norm, especially in our place. 4-1-2

WIN

@OM: We've won quite a bit against them, they've lost more talent than they've recruited, but playing at their place is hard. I definitely lean towards a win here, but I'll be conservative and label it a toss up 4-1-3

WIN

CCU: 5-1-3

BINGO

@LSU: This game is always a toss up. 5-1-4
MSU: They return fitz who should be improved, but lose a lot of the surrounding cast again. I'm going 6-1-4

BINGO

Mizz: We've been the better team for most of the games against them. Game this year is in our house. However, they had arguably the best offense in the SEC last year (to go along with the worst defense) and return almost all of that offense. Could bode troubles for us. Like OM, I lean towards the victory here, but I'll go extra conservative and label it a toss up. 6-1-5.

BINGO

Final score: 6-1-5

There is no way we shouldn't win at least 6 games. 2 of the 5 tossups are strong leans towards winning, but I'm remaining conservative here. If we split the toss-ups, that puts us at 8-9 regular season wins. Given the level of the toss ups, My baseline prediction next year is for 9 wins.


I'll go you one more and say 10.  Bigly,...
Quote from: Pudgepork on May 20, 2017, 10:29:18 am
3-9 until the O line improves AND a defense shows up.   

So you say the O-line won't improve and the defense won't show up?  LMAO  Remember the name of the thread and try again.  Go out on a limb even, it's good for you to be optimistic...