Yes or No? Does American Pharoah become the 12th Triple Crown Champion?

[HogFanInBryant]

First off...my apologies for starting another thread on the Belmont.
But...I thought this would make it interesting if everyone just simply answers the question and gives a short and sweet explanation as to saying yes or no.

I'm rooting for him to win...not as much as I rooted for Smarty Jones...but I am passionate about wanting him to do it.
With that said...I don't think he will...No I don't.
Why?  History is heavily going against him...and there is a bundle of talented horses that will be fresh and that are bred for the distance more than he is.  There you go...in a nutshell.

[mckinneyhog5]

First off...my apologies for starting another thread on the Belmont.
But...I thought this would make it interesting if everyone just simply answers the question and gives a short and sweet explanation as to saying yes or no.

I'm rooting for him to win...not as much as I rooted for Smarty Jones...but I am passionate about wanting him to do it.
With that said...I don't think he will...No I don't.
Why?  History is heavily going against him...and there is a bundle of talented horses that will be fresh and that are bred for the distance more than he is.  There you go...in a nutshell.

History will always be against the horse going for the triple crown until a horse breaks that streak.  Given that, the streak will be broken one day and that day will fall on June 6th of this year. AP has the best chance IMHO to win it since Smarty Jones.  We haven't seen the best of AP yet and that's scary.  He's not running against sub-par competitors.  I don't care what the times these races are ran in because they don't tell the whole story.  Anyway, AP is head and shoulders above his competition.

[riccoar]

I'll say he shows up and beats the sore losers that skipped The Preakness.  Yeah , yeah I know.  It's just part of the game.  No doubt Dortmund is a beast himself, and AP has handled him both times.  I just hope the jockey runs his own race rather than let any other horse and jockey dictate his.  He just has to out sprint the closers.

[oldman1015]

my heart says yes but my brain says no. i have bet him heavy on the nose the last two races. will put him 2nd in  some light exactas and hope he beats me.

[kingoftherapids]

Yes in jaw dropping style

[userpick]

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/05/21/sports/amid-triple-crown-bid-owner-of-american-pharoah-is-fighting-a-lawsuit.html?_r=1&referrer=

He can win but it won't make a difference to me. I refuse to cheer for scum. His owners are low life pieces of shitt and they always will be. This article barely touches the surface.

[kingoftherapids]

i dont understand... the horse is what this is about. do we say, XXXXXXX owners won the triple crown? no... we say, secretariat won or affirmed won... this can be american pharoah. not the zayats winning the triple crown. yes they will get prize money and all that stuff, but the triple crown is more about the horse, jock, and trainer... then the owner. the owner is about 4th down on the list of notations you see. at three chimneys in the cemetery, secretariat's tombstone has one thing on it.. it is 'Secretariat 1970-1989'      Seattle Slew's says, "Seattle Slew, Bold Reasoning - My Charmer by Poker, 1974-2002, Undefeated Triple Crown Winner"

can you root for big brown not to win? yes... everybody in the world knew that horse was a running with gobs of chemicals. and it is sad for the horse because that trainer was a sack of scum.

50 years from now, if Pharoah wins... nobody is going to be saying... American Pharoah/ Zayat- Triple Crown Winner. Nobody is going to be saying "the zayats won the TC."

it will be like the others before... American Pharoah won the triple crown.

just because some you guys might have a personal problem with the zayats, don't knock the horse or his accomplishments. this sport is about the horse.

Just because larry jones got pissed at oaklawn and wont run here anymore, doesn't mean i am going to root against his horses. if he had a triple crown hopeful, i would be rooting for him the same way.

the front and center of this sport are the ANIMALS. appreciate what the ANIMAL is accomplishing. Appreciate what the rider accomplishes. Appreciate was the trainer is accomplishing. am i supposed to say, appreciate the check the owners write? no thats completely monetary and takes no skill.

[kingoftherapids]

sorry HFIB for hijacking your post with my rant.
have to defend my four legged friends sometimes

[onebadrubi]

i dont understand... the horse is what this is about. do we say, XXXXXXX owners won the triple crown? no... we say, secretariat won or affirmed won... this can be american pharoah. not the zayats winning the triple crown. yes they will get prize money and all that stuff, but the triple crown is more about the horse, jock, and trainer... then the owner. the owner is about 4th down on the list of notations you see. at three chimneys in the cemetery, secretariat's tombstone has one thing on it.. it is 'Secretariat 1970-1989'      Seattle Slew's says, "Seattle Slew, Bold Reasoning - My Charmer by Poker, 1974-2002, Undefeated Triple Crown Winner"

can you root for big brown not to win? yes... everybody in the world knew that horse was a running with gobs of chemicals. and it is sad for the horse because that trainer was a sack of scum.

50 years from now, if Pharoah wins... nobody is going to be saying... American Pharoah/ Zayat- Triple Crown Winner. Nobody is going to be saying "the zayats won the TC."

it will be like the others before... American Pharoah won the triple crown.

just because some you guys might have a personal problem with the zayats, don't knock the horse or his accomplishments. this sport is about the horse.

Just because larry jones got pissed at oaklawn and wont run here anymore, doesn't mean i am going to root against his horses. if he had a triple crown hopeful, i would be rooting for him the same way.

the front and center of this sport are the ANIMALS. appreciate what the ANIMAL is accomplishing. Appreciate what the rider accomplishes. Appreciate was the trainer is accomplishing. am i supposed to say, appreciate the check the owners write? no thats completely monetary and takes no skill.

Robert Kraft, Donald Sterling, Atlanta Hawks previous owner all say high.  The superbowl is just as much about the teams and coach, same with the NBA, etc.  But people will still root against or for the patriots because of the owner, people HATED the clippers because of the owner, etc.  It happens every day and rightfully so.  People don't like the zayat family or stables have every right to root against them because of who owns the horse.  People didn't buy GM or Dodge because the government was part owner.  It happens every day. 

The TC is not just about the horses, hence why the sport is the way it is. 

[kingoftherapids]

Robert Kraft, Donald Sterling, Atlanta Hawks previous owner all say high.  The superbowl is just as much about the teams and coach, same with the NBA, etc.  But people will still root against or for the patriots because of the owner, people HATED the clippers because of the owner, etc.  It happens every day and rightfully so.  People don't like the zayat family or stables have every right to root against them because of who owns the horse.  People didn't buy GM or Dodge because the government was part owner.  It happens every day. 

The TC is not just about the horses, hence why the sport is the way it is. 

My point has been proven.    "you can root against them" but do not against the horse. The horse hasn't done a dang thing to you.  when you start comparing teams to horse racing, you have to get down to that level... Do you think i am going to root against chris paul to win the MVP because of his dumb owner?

The problem with horse racing over the last 30 years has been that the focus has been taken off the horse. the athletes.

when american pharoah is storming down the slop in the rebel, i  didnt see many people saying, "oh crap, oh crap, oh crap, the zayats are about to win dangit"
Everybody's focus was on the horse and that is what is pure about this game.

i thought to myself, "wow that animal is rare, is fast, is a potential hero that can save a sport that is dying"

My question is... Why don't you guys want Pharoah to win the triple crown? i'd like to see the negatives outweigh the positives.

Positives- List here
Negatives- list here


if you truly care about horse racing, you know what is needed.

[Torqued pork]

It would be nice for the sport and even Oaklawn for AP to win.

I also like the more humble and appreciative Bob Baffert since his heart issue.

[onebadrubi]

My point has been proven.    "you can root against them" but do not against the horse. The horse hasn't done a dang thing to you.  when you start comparing teams to horse racing, you have to get down to that level... Do you think i am going to root against chris paul to win the MVP because of his dumb owner?

The problem with horse racing over the last 30 years has been that the focus has been taken off the horse. the athletes.

when american pharoah is storming down the slop in the rebel, i  didnt see many people saying, "oh crap, oh crap, oh crap, the zayats are about to win dangit"
Everybody's focus was on the horse and that is what is pure about this game.

i thought to myself, "wow that animal is rare, is fast, is a potential hero that can save a sport that is dying"

My question is... Why don't you guys want Pharoah to win the triple crown? i'd like to see the negatives outweigh the positives.

Positives- List here
Negatives- list here


if you truly care about horse racing, you know what is needed.

Since the zayat's will become righteous in the sport if he wins the TC then yes, you root against AP if you don't like the zayat's. 

Listing positives and negatives won't work here.  You either want him to win or you don't, no positives or negatives to what people want here.  From the business sides of things, every big trainer is praying he DOESN'T win the TC, all the breeding/stud market will be locked up by the zayat's then.  They will have the all the demand by the lavish money people in the sport. 

You want numbers, look at the sportsbooks and gamblers %'s on june 4th or 5th

[kingoftherapids]

yea i didnt think you would dare touch the positives/negatives.

all breeding will be locked up by the zayats?  why on earth would you say that? do you really think all good mares are going to be sent to american pharoah just because he won the triple crown?

[jdelo77]

I totally agree with KOTR , I'm not a Zayat fan but , in rooting for the horse ! That's like saying well his Dad was a loser so he must be too ... It's about the freaking horse not the owner ....

[kingoftherapids]

it would be huge for oaklawn.... HUGE.  blows my mind honestly that people's personal reasons of not liking someone would not want oaklawn to be able to claim a winner for the first time in its 111 year history.

[kingoftherapids]

exactly jdelo. its like having a baby and people hoping that baby doesnt win his boxcar derby because the kids dad is not paying the bookie in town.

[cbhawg03]

My point has been proven.    "you can root against them" but do not against the horse. The horse hasn't done a dang thing to you.  when you start comparing teams to horse racing, you have to get down to that level... Do you think i am going to root against chris paul to win the MVP because of his dumb owner?

The problem with horse racing over the last 30 years has been that the focus has been taken off the horse. the athletes.

when american pharoah is storming down the slop in the rebel, i  didnt see many people saying, "oh crap, oh crap, oh crap, the zayats are about to win dangit"
Everybody's focus was on the horse and that is what is pure about this game.

i thought to myself, "wow that animal is rare, is fast, is a potential hero that can save a sport that is dying"

My question is... Why don't you guys want Pharoah to win the triple crown? i'd like to see the negatives outweigh the positives.

Positives- List here
Negatives- list here


if you truly care about horse racing, you know what is needed.

You root against CP winning MVP cause Curry is better

down the lane in the Rebel I thought, that was a paid work cause he ran against a bunch of claimers, he got easy fractions and nobody contested him

[kingoftherapids]

You root against CP winning MVP cause Curry is better

HAHAHA very correct. most exciting team to watch no doubt

[userpick]

I know I'm very much in the minority, but I don't give a damn about seeing a triple crown winner. I'm not cheering against it but it doesn't really make a difference to me. I read an article the other day that said a triple crown winner won't save horse racing. Having more quality races will save horse racing. I agree with that. If AP wins the belmont, it's not like it's going to draw a significant amount of people to the sport.

As far as the Zayat argument goes, I can very much cheer against a horse because of the owners. When they go on Good Morning America and all of these shows, it's defintely about them just as much as the horse. Ahmed Zayat will make sure it's about him just as much as the horse. I was cheering for Cali Chrome to win the belmont last year. After he lost and Coburn made an ass of himself, I havent cheered for him since. I just don't cheer for bad people and no matter how great AP is, he is still owned by a lousy, non-tax paying MF.

[cbhawg03]

I don't like the owner and his spoon fed son, plain and simple. I am not against seeing him win per se, but am against him winning at the same time. Do I want to see a TC winner? Yes, of course, but don't necessarily want to see the Zayat's win it. Really don't want to see them in the winner's circle talking about winning a TC.

This all will become moot though because he is going to lose. So whether we agree or disagree about the owner or whether or not to cheer for the horse because of the owner will all be irrelevant. I'm saying Carpe Diem, but wouldn't be surprised if it is Materiality or Frosted that beats him.

Remember the way Bailey rode the Belmont when Smarty was going for the TC? There will be some of that to beat AP.

[cbhawg03]

I know I'm very much in the minority, but I don't give a damn about seeing a triple crown winner. I'm not cheering against it but it doesn't really make a difference to me. I read an article the other day that said a triple crown winner won't save horse racing. Having more quality races will save horse racing. I agree with that. If AP wins the belmont, it's not like it's going to draw a significant amount of people to the sport.

As far as the Zayat argument goes, I can very much cheer against a horse because of the owners. When they go on Good Morning America and all of these shows, it's defintely about them just as much as the horse. Ahmed Zayat will make sure it's about him just as much as the horse. I was cheering for Cali Chrome to win the belmont last year. After he lost and Coburn made an ass of himself, I havent cheered for him since. I just don't cheer for bad people and no matter how great AP is, he is still owned by a lousy, non-tax paying MF.

Just go take a look at Belmont's card on Saturday. Perhaps the single worse card ever for a track that big on a holiday weekend.

You start with a New York bred maiden claimer.

Next up is a $12,500 claimer.

The third race is a first level allowance race, which drew only six despite being on the turf.

Then we have another New York bred maiden claimer.

The fifth is a $25,000 claimer.

Next up is a first level allowance race for New York breds. Thank goodness for New York breds.

The seventh is a starter allowance with a field of seven.

The feature, on the Saturday of Memorial Day Weekend, is a listed stakes, which, if it stays on the turf, will have a field no larger than six.

And we close it out with a straight maiden sprint on the turf where four of the nine entered are first time starters

Triple Crown winner can't resolve those kind of issues, period, end of conversation.

[onebadrubi]

yea i didnt think you would dare touch the positives/negatives.

all breeding will be locked up by the zayats?  why on earth would you say that? do you really think all good mares are going to be sent to american pharoah just because he won the triple crown?

Dare touch it?  It's not herpes or syphilis, it's simply an objective topic.  The positives/negatives can not be weighed in this situation.  A TC winner is not going to raise the TV ratings for the Kentucky derby next year.  The possibility of one to complete the TC however sends the Belmont ratings, attendance, ticket prices, and gamblers all on the uptick. 

You want to kill Horse racing?  Have a couple TC winners in a decade.  Horse racing may be declining, actually it is because it's even more prestigious and lavish than golf.  A millionaire can't even compete, it takes a billionaire.  The only positives to AP winning are feel good except for THE OWNER AND BREEDER, their's are monetary.

[kingoftherapids]

makes me nauseous when i hear y'all say a TC winner won't help the sport... did i say it was going to solve the problems. Hell no. You guys can not watch the winners circle deal or good morning america. thats your choice. what ive done the last 4 times he has won. as soon as the race is over, i pour up a drink and make a toast to a 4 legged freak that has put all rivals this year to shame.

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/edelson-would-pharoah-winning-the-triple-crown-save-racing/

[userpick]

i thought to myself, "wow that animal is rare, is fast, is a potential hero that can save a sport that is dying"

It looks to me like you said it would solve all the problems lol

[kingoftherapids]

Dare touch it?  It's not herpes or syphilis, it's simply an objective topic.  The positives/negatives can not be weighed in this situation.  A TC winner is not going to raise the TV ratings for the Kentucky derby next year.  The possibility of one to complete the TC however sends the Belmont ratings, attendance, ticket prices, and gamblers all on the uptick. 

You want to kill Horse racing?  Have a couple TC winners in a decade.  Horse racing may be declining, actually it is because it's even more prestigious and lavish than golf.  A millionaire can't even compete, it takes a billionaire.  The only positives to AP winning are feel good except for THE OWNER AND BREEDER, their's are monetary.

I lost you after you say a TC winner the year before doesnt help ratings. we just saw the highest rated Kentucky Derby since 1992... thats off a year a horse won 2/3.

[jdelo77]

Having another triple crown winner won't hurt the sport either ...

[onebadrubi]

I lost you after you say a TC winner the year before doesnt help ratings. we just saw the highest rated Kentucky Derby since 1992... thats off a year a horse won 2/3.

So a triple crown winner every 5 years won't water it down? 

Having one every 20-40 years is not a negative thing so much but if they become common it won't be a good thing.  There are many people, hell me included, that watch more attentively when one is on the line.  I'm not the only one.

[kingoftherapids]

It looks to me like you said it would solve all the problems lol

Just because you save someone from drowning doesnt mean they dont have tons of other problems...

[kingoftherapids]

It looks to me like you said it would solve all the problems lol

another example. when you pluck a shot out of a 10 foot bunker for bogey. thats a sand save and maybe saved your round and a potential huge number. again it helps.

[kingoftherapids]

So a triple crown winner every 5 years won't water it down? 

Having one every 20-40 years is not a negative thing so much but if they become common it won't be a good thing.  There are many people, hell me included, that watch more attentively when one is on the line.  I'm not the only one.

we wont have to worry about one every 5 years... when you get all the talk about people wanting to change the format, you know it is very rare in this day and age to actually win it all.

[jdelo77]

Will we go from having one every 40 years to having one every five years ? No we will not , but what about every 15-20 years ? That wouldn't hurt would it ?

[onebadrubi]

Put me in the category the less something happens the more special it is.  Meaning that every year that goes by that there isn't a TC winner, the more special it is along with the more people that will be lured in to want to see it. 

[kingoftherapids]

Put me in the category the less something happens the more special it is.  Meaning that every year that goes by that there isn't a TC winner, the more special it is along with the more people that will be lured in to want to see it. 

lol 37 is a good amount of time for it to happen! thats literally once in the average american man's life time at this rate!

[onebadrubi]

lol 37 is a good amount of time for it to happen! thats literally once in the average american man's life time at this rate!

All I'm saying you wanted positives and negatives and you took one of those bullets and ran with it.  My comment was if you start having a bunch of TC winners the "lust" would be gone that you have RIGHT now.  AP wins it so be it and good for the horse.  I personally believe it's only good for people wanting a feel good moment, everything else it hurts.  Why do you think so many people put so much effort in to making sure one ISN'T won?  People take the chance to make zero in the preakness by holding a horse out to attempt a win at the Belmont, but more so they are trying to make sure a TC isn't won.  The only horse trainer, owner, or stable owner that wants a horse to win the TC is the won with skin in the game. 

1 every 37 years, sure for you analytic point of view.  Still you haven't said enough for me to change to my mind and wish for AP to win the TC and pad Zayat's pocket.  That all being said, I think he has the best chances to do it than any I have personally seen but I'm not that old either.

[cbhawg03]

Put me in the group that hopes the beat is this bad...............

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLV7xZPwvM0

[songofthesword]

yep

[The Hogfather]

Yes!

[showhimthewhip]

I say yes...

Sometimes, horses are just faster than other horses, no matter what the conditions are.

[cbhawg03]

it would be huge for oaklawn.... HUGE.  blows my mind honestly that people's personal reasons of not liking someone would not want oaklawn to be able to claim a winner for the first time in its 111 year history.

you mean we would get another bobble head day at Oaklawn?

[kingoftherapids]

Those little suckers are valuable.  A guy from horse racing talk gave me his Tampa condo for the week if I got the zenyatta one and sent it to him.  Lol

[HawgWild]

A Triple Crown winner would be good for the sport and Lord knows it's about time to break the drought. It was 25 years between Citation and Affirmed. It's been 37 years since Affirmed; however we've seen 13 or is it 14 win two and lose the Belmont since? I'll enjoy watching the race but won't be betting AP to win.

[cbhawg03]

Those little suckers are valuable.  A guy from horse racing talk gave me his Tampa condo for the week if I got the zenyatta one and sent it to him.  Lol

Oh I got them all them have been given away

[ghostzapper]

Some interesting opinions being shared here.

Someone made the point that this was the best opportunity for a contender to win the TC since Smarty Jones.  No, since Big Brown.  His loss was as a big an upset as Spectacular Bid because he towered over that Belmont field.

For Beyer figure calculators, the answer may be hidden in the calculations.  Beyer figures do not take into account trips.  If you do that for the Derby for AP, giving him a two wide trip instead of the one he got, he probably ran a 110, his lifetime best, carry his highest weight ever.  In the Preakness, it is possible to give him a 110 again, if you assume Divining Rod ran his Lexington race (not an unreasonable assumption).   The problem with that assumption is you have to assume that Tale of Verve ran a 96, a 26 point improvement over his lifetime best fig.  Beyer obviously settled on an assumption that says AP ran slightly worse than the Derby, Divining Rod regressed and Tale of Verve only improved 18 points when he gave AP a 104.  There's no clearcut answer to the calculation dilemma so I imagine the way you view it may be determined by your personal opinion of AP.

But, if you take the 10 - and I would be inclined to - you need to add another 3 points to it.  Gary Stevens said he weighed 131 when he stepped on the scales post race because of water in his boots and saddle cloth.  An accepted rule of handicapping is to add or subtract points to an earlier figure to make it match the race the horse is going to run today.  AP will actually have a 5-6 pound weight decrease in the Belmont from the Preakness, making his adjusted number in the Preakness carrying Belmont weight a 112.5. 

So, AP's last three race numbers, adjusted for Belmont weight and taking trip into consideration are: 103.5, 110 and 112.5.  He's getting better each race.  If he runs that last number in the Belmont, he's likely not going to lose.  Will he run it?  I think so.  Baffert has sent three horses to NY in this situation, and he has gotten optimal performances out of two of them.  His lone exception was with a horse that required the lead who stumbled out of the gate and couldn't get there. I realize that some think AP will run his best race regardless of the trainer, but his trainer won't be the reason this horse gets beat in NY if he does. 

The other thing bolstering this opinion is my belief that there are few contenders I think can beat AP, even if his projected figure falls around 105.   Believe it or not, Tale of Verve falls into this category if he's in third race of improving form cycle and he improves as much in Belmont as he did in Preakness.  (I am not saying he will.  Just saying there will be those who will use that explanation saying it was predictable in the unlikely event he does win). Frosted and Materiality are the other two.  Both have run races at 104+ and, as with all three year olds who can improve markedly between races, could move to the 110 area.  If neither of them fires, I think you see another dominant AP performance.  (What horse, other than those two have run races that suggest they'll be in the 110 area on Belmont Day?  Carpe Diem?  Please.)

I think the really interesting part of this race is whether Materiality gets a clean break.  He had faster pace figs than AP going into Derby and, if he gets away cleanly, may set up a pace scenario AP doesn't want or need in the Belmont. 

[HawgWild]

Appreciate your analysis.

[FATHAWG08]

Been going to the races 40 years. Yes, AP wins Triple Crown. He has had one hard race this year. The Preakness was the prefect race for him to keep him sharp without taking to much out of him. AP is versatile enough to stay out of trouble. AP wins by 3 lengths Frosted runs 2nd.

[HogFanInBryant]

I am rooting for AP big time...but as I said history is going hard against him.  The Belmont will always be a moot type race for me due to one line and one line only:
"Birdstone surges past...Birdstone wins the Belmont Stakes"
I still want to throw-up just typing that!

[SuperSid4Ever]

A few things I noticed from AP's first two triple previous crown wins which, in my opinion, he cannot afford to do in the Belmont:

He ran anywhere from 5-10 wide all the way around the track in the Derby.  If he does it at the Belmont, it will work against him.  While there is no difference between the inside and outside positions on the straightaways, there is plenty of difference on those cavernous turns on this track.  The track is long enough as it is, it is more sand-based than the previous 2 which makes it harder to run on for longer distances, and the extra distance of those huge turns will hurt him.  It's a 1.5 mile track.  No need to add another 1/16th of a mile to the total by swinging too wide on the turns.

He took on an early speed challenge at the Preakness.  His jockey has to try and control the horse early on.  There are going to be horses who will surge to the lead and run much too fast early, and there is no need to take on a speed challenge early.  Let them run their horses into the ground, then pick up the pieces.  AP has good late race speed and can make up distance well.

Positioning is all important. There is going to be plenty of gamesmanship in the race to try and spoil a TC sweep. Don't pin him on the rail in a crowd.  Put him in a good position to pick up any distance going around the final turn and into the home stretch.

My gut feeling is that Espinoza lets him run too fast, too early, and it winds up costing him in the stretch causing AP to come up a little short.  I can only hope I am wrong.

[Torqued pork]

I said before Louisville that I doubted AP was a TC winner, but it was mostly because this crop looked deeper and better at the time than it looks now. That being said, with the Belmont Stakes being such a ball-busting beast for less than fresh horses, I can only muster cautious optimism.

[ghostzapper]

Does anybody know what the quarter, half mile and mile fraction times AP must run in order to win?  What times at each of those marks is "too fast?"  When you knows those points, then I will tell you you knew who might win the Belmont.

[HogFanInBryant]

Does anybody know what the quarter, half mile and mile fraction times AP must run in order to win?  What times at each of those marks is "too fast?"  When you knows those points, then I will tell you you knew who might win the Belmont.

Let's assume that everything is the same as it was on the day Smarty came up short in 2004.  Here is the chart:
http://www.belmontstakes.com/UserFiles/file/2004.pdf

If AP is at or right near the lead...I think 2 factors will determine if he can win the TC or not. 
1.  How fast is the half mile click?
Smarty's Belmont went in 48.3/5
I think AP will be just fine with anything 47.4 or slower

2.  How fast is the mile and a quarter click?
Smarty's Belmont was 2:00.2/5
This is where I really think you will find your winner...if AP goes this fast I say someone will run him down in the final 100 yards...if AP can keep this around 2:01 or slower he will keep going and hold off the fresh horses.

Thoughts?