UNC opens as 8.5 favorite

[Mr. Porkleone]

I thought might be more.

Thoughts.

[PorkRinds]

I feel like we won today with both Dusty and Macon as non-factors. If they get hot and Moses plays like he did today we have a shot. Not a good one, but a shot.

[HawgnCorona]

It means they are beatable....We will need all hands on deck Sun.

[Tick Hog]

I thought might be more.

Thoughts.

I'm with you, thought maybe 10-12 range. If we can manage to keep it close never know what happens. You'd think the pressure is all on them

[HogAlum99]

I thought might be more.

Thoughts.

I kinda feel like this game will be similar to when we faced them in the 2007 tournament (I think that was the year. The year when Pelphrey took Heath's players to the tourney). We faced UNC after defeating Indiana in the first round (another 8 vs. 9 matchup nonetheless). We were totally overmatched by that Carolina team and while Sunday's result shouldn't be as lopsided as that one (lost by about 30), Carolina should win going away by 15-20, but at least the future looks bright for the Hogs regardless of what happens Sunday.

[Hollywood_HOGan45]

Usually a one goes down in the second round of the NCAA.

Might as well be us that knocks off a one on our way to memphis.

[BrooklynRoss]

Ha, seems low. That being said, if we are insanely hot from the 3-point line, we have a chance.

[sickboy]

3 out of the last 4 tourneys an 8/9 seed has knocked off a 1 seed in the second round. Are the Tar Heels that 1 seed and are we the 8 match up? History says probably not -- but it's possible.

[Hogz87]

Usually a one goes down in the second round of the NCAA.

Might as well be us that knocks off a one on our way to memphis.

In the last 10 NCAA tournaments 8/9 seeds have beaten a 1-seed five times and are 5-35 overall.

But you are right that a one goes down in the second round usually if you look at very recent history.  Maybe it will be us this year, but I just hate the matchup.  It's an awful one for us.

[Sharky]

Would have been better if they played a tougher first round game imo. They will be fresh. I do think our style is different enough that teams who don't prepare for it can have trouble. Lots of teams forget, leave one player or forward to bring the ball down--we trap and steal or intercept a pass downcourt, but I think Anderson's system will always have trouble against elite guard play, especially if the guards know how to help each other get the ball down the court. Hopefully, we keep it close like we did today, then they wear down enough in the final 10 minutes that we can pull it out.

[Hogz87]

I kinda feel like this game will be similar to when we faced them in the 2007 tournament (I think that was the year. The year when Pelphrey took Heath's players to the tourney). We faced UNC after defeating Indiana in the first round (another 8 vs. 9 matchup nonetheless). We were totally overmatched by that Carolina team and while Sunday's result shouldn't be as lopsided as that one (lost by about 30), Carolina should win going away by 15-20, but at least the future looks bright for the Hogs regardless of what happens Sunday.

To be fair that 2008 UNC team was ridiculously loaded, brought everyone back in 2009, and blitzed their way through the tournament en route to a national championship.  This UNC team isn't on the same level as their 2008 team.

[RaisinHog]

Would have been better if they played a tougher first round game imo. They will be fresh. I do think our style is different enough that teams who don't prepare for it can have trouble. Lots of teams forget, leave one player or forward to bring the ball down--we trap and steal or intercept a pass downcourt, but I think Anderson's system will always have trouble against elite guard play, especially if the guards know how to help each other get the ball down the court. Hopefully, we keep it close like we did today, then they wear down enough in the final 10 minutes that we can pull it out.

But I wouldn't consider there guards elite .. I would venture to say both Kentucky and Florida have better guards

[RaisinHog]

I would also venture to say our overall guard play is better on this team than the 14-15 team

[Hogz87]

Something to keep an eye on is Joel Berry tweaked his ankle (the same ankle that caused him to miss a few games earlier in the season) and left the game. He did return but didn't look like he was moving the same as he usually does.  That may just be because he came back in with UNC already up by nearly 40 to loosen up his ankle and not let it get stiff, and may have been told to just go out there and go about 50% and not do anything dumb.

But if he is playing at 75% on Sunday, then that does help our chances because, as is the case with pretty much every UNC team, the PG is the lifeblood of the team.  He always has a mega stud at PG, but if something happens to that mega stud PG then UNC all of a sudden goes from being a nearly unstoppable force to just being a regular good team. 

[Poker_hog]

I know it's not going to happen, but how cool would it be to play MTSU and Williams in the Sweet 16?

In Memphis no less.  Then eliminate monk and UK would be the dream scenario.

[Hogz87]

But I wouldn't consider there guards elite .. I would venture to say both Kentucky and Florida have better guards

Joel Berry is one of the best PGs in the country and arguably UNC's best player.  Justin Jackson isn't a guard but he is a perimeter player who won ACC POY.  But yes, as a whole, UNC's guard group isn't as good as Kentucky's or Florida's because UNC's other true guards (Nate Britt and Seventh Woods) leave a lot to be desired some games but also have a good deal of talent.  If you consider Theo Pinson a guard, then the discussion gets more interesting.

Regardless, as usual, UNC has a very good 3-4 man rotation in the frontcourt and, as much as I love Moses, three of them (Hicks, Meeks, and Bradley) are on Kingsley's level talent wise.  Kingsley is pretty much all we've got inside (unless Trey Thompson from a month ago returns), so if he gets in foul trouble UNC will have a field day inside and won't really need their guards to do anything.

[Vantage 8 dude]

I thought might be more.

Thoughts.

Concur totally! IMHO it ought to be at least 12-15.

[VivanLosCaniches!]

I think Macon is the key to this game.  If UNC focuses on Barford/Kingsley/Hannahs then that might open things up for Daryl.  He is capable of scoring 20-30 points.  I don't think we can go to our bench as early and often as we usually do.  We are gonna get hounded inside.  I think we have to go small and try to beat them with our shooting and lots of ball movement among the guards

[Hootiethehog]

Avoiding the Ray Biggers joke, I honestly figured it would be in the 10-12 range, more along 12 points seems right. I love my Hogs very much, but we don't match up with the Tar Heels well at all.

[Poker_hog]

I'm seeing unc -10.  That's about what we were vs Kentucky.

[MtPorker]

Not sure we can stay within 8.5, but I can hope.  Go Hogs.

[BrooklynRoss]

I think Macon is the key to this game.  If UNC focuses on Barford/Kingsley/Hannahs then that might open things up for Daryl.  He is capable of scoring 20-30 points.  I don't think we can go to our bench as early and often as we usually do.  We are gonna get hounded inside.  I think we have to go small and try to beat them with our shooting and lots of ball movement among the guards

This is an interesting take. If you look at SH's game plan, they were double-teaming Moses and running a poor man's "box and 1" on Hannahs. No doubt, Barford will be targeted by NC. That would free-up Macon for free reign to a big game. God bless this team and its depth, haha.

[orvillesghost]

I would expect this to move to about 11 or 12


very tempted to load up right now on Carolina at 8.5 but I wont bet against Arkansas