Gafford isn't ready

[daprospecta]

In my assessment, Gafford isn't going to the NBA in 2018.  He will be back.  98 1/2% probability.  I think Daniel is smart enough himself to know he needs another year in college to fill out into big boy shoes, and he will benefit financially by it in the long haul.  He is still a little raw. 

Daniel needs to develop a better turn around jumper in the lane to play the power forward position in the NBA, which is likely where he'll play at the next level unless he grows two more inches.  Still, even at center, he needs to work on that same shot.  He has all the athletic ability, he just needs a little more work on his offensive skill set. 

Daniel won't go near in the lottery this season, (because he isn't top 6 in the land)...  But next season if he is dominant he will probably go top 10 at worst.  I'd be surprised if he went in the first round if he came out now.  Late first round at best.

If someone walked into your house today and said I will give 3 million today OR I might give you 6 million next year depending on your growth, which would you take? If your family is well off, you wait.  I don't know the Gaffords but someone who claims they do said they are middle class.  3-5 million dollars changes a middle class family immediately.  Gafford will be playing basketball for the next 15 years barring injury.  I love when top recruits choose to stay home. I also love when the same recruit can go the 1st round and change his life. Cherish what we have until this season ends and let the young man go be great.

[jgphillips3]

It's 50/50.  He can go now or, by coming back, he can improve his game and probably be a lottery pick.

[Athog]

Another year would make him a lot more money and provide us fans a lot more fond memories. Yeah, I agree, he's not really ready.

If he can be a First round pick he is nuts not to go.
That is a lot of money now not maybe more money in the future.
Selfishly I want him to stay.

[daprospecta]

If he can be a First round pick he is nuts not to go.
That is a lot of money now not maybe more money in the future.
Selfishly I want him to stay.

I love your honesty. Very few will admit that. If I hadn't played on the hill I would feel that way but I personally knew guys that should have gone and didn't and it hurt their stock.  When you get a chance to play at the highest level and get a guaranteed contract, you don't turn that down.

[golfinpig]

I've not seen a mock draft because I couldn't care less about the NBA. I just go by what I see on the court. As some have said, if he can get the millions then why not go. However, he is a long way from being an impact player in the NBA. If he is drafted in the 1st round it will be purely on potential. Not saying he won't get there but right now he doesn't have the mature body or game.

[BigBrandonAllenFan]

Not sure what your evaluation skills include or what your NBA connections are that make you so sure that he's a late first round pick right now "at best", but other people who have years of a proven track record have Gafford going not only in the 1st round but have him going mid-1st round.

My evaluation comes from watching the player and how he stacks up against his man.

Take today with Gafford against Tennessee for a single instance... Gafford had 8 points, 5 rebounds, and no assists and was 2-6 from the line, with no blocks.  Meanwhile, Daniel's herculean counterpart of UT, Admiral Schofield, pictured here, had 16 points, was 2-2 from 3 point land, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 2-2 from the line, and defensively pushed Daniel around like a freshman in the game.  Mind you I am not an NBA scout, but, I kinda am.   


 

There are a good handful of college power players out there this season that are physically NBA strong like Schofield.  Guys Gafford can't handle quite yet.  Today, I saw Gafford dominated by a guy he will face on the NBA floor.  And there are a lot of players like Schofield in the NBA.

Again, that's just what I saw today.  I can't tell you what the scout's eyes saw.  One look at the picture above and I can tell you without even seeing the picture of the other guy which one I will take first in a pick up game when choosing sides.  Some assessments are really that simple. 

[BigBrandonAllenFan]

If someone walked into your house today and said I will give 3 million today OR I might give you 6 million next year depending on your growth, which would you take? If your family is well off, you wait.  I don't know the Gaffords but someone who claims they do said they are middle class.  3-5 million dollars changes a middle class family....

I'm not much on knowing NBA dollar numbers for draftees.  Does a second round NBA pick get 3 to 5 million as a rookie?  I really don't know. 

[riccoar]

If someone walked into your house today and said I will give 3 million today OR I might give you 6 million next year depending on your growth, which would you take?

If you are smart, financially smart, you go for the 6 million.  People act like 3 million is gonna pad his life from here to eternity.  You might want to calculate that his agent gets 20% and the IRS is gonna take near 40%.

Gafford would go 1st round, but mid to late.  But he has a lot of gains to make and I fully believe IF he came back he would move into a definite lottery pick next year.

[BigBrandonAllenFan]

I've not seen a mock draft because I couldn't care less about the NBA. I just go by what I see on the court. As some have said, if he can get the millions then why not go. However, he is a long way from being an impact player in the NBA. If he is drafted in the 1st round it will be purely on potential. Not saying he won't get there but right now he doesn't have the mature body or game.

Everything I was trying to say in a nutshell. 

Me and Golfinpig are not NBA scouts, but we kinda are.

[moses_007]

He didn't compete very well today with Tennessee's forwards, so how could he compete in the NBA?  I agree he's not ready yet.

[Hogz87]

My evaluation comes from watching the player and how he stacks up against his man.

Take today with Gafford against Tennessee for a single instance... Gafford had 8 points, 5 rebounds, and no assists and was 2-6 from the line, with no blocks.  Meanwhile, Daniel's herculean counterpart of UT, Admiral Schofield, pictured here, had 16 points, was 2-2 from 3 point land, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 2-2 from the line, and defensively pushed Daniel around like a freshman in the game.  Mind you I am not an NBA scout, but, I kinda am.   


 

There are a good handful of college power players out there this season that are physically NBA strong like Schofield.  Guys Gafford can't handle quite yet.  Today, I saw Gafford dominated by a guy he will face on the NBA floor.  And there are a lot of players like Schofield in the NBA.

Again, that's just what I saw today.  I can't tell you what the scout's eyes saw.  One look at the picture above and I can tell you without even seeing the picture of the other guy which one I will take first in a pick up game when choosing sides.  Some assessments are really that simple. 

Admiral Schofield is a skilled, very strong 6'5" combo-forward with low-end athleticism (by NBA standards) and limited upside.  Gafford is a 6'10" PF/C who is an athletic freak and has a fairly high ceiling.  I'm not saying Gafford will be a stellar NBA player, but the vast majority of the "experts" and mock draft sites that have years of a proven track record of getting it mostly right have Gafford going in the 15-20 range; that's a guaranteed $5M-$7M essentially being offered to a 19 year old kid to make as a 20-22 year old kid.  After that, if a player is going to reach their second contract where their career earnings can reach $50M+, they're going to get there regardless of whether they stayed for an extra year or not. 

I agree, his game could use some fine tuning and he could stand to bulk up some more.  However, he can either take $5M-$7M now and be allowed to dedicate every waking hour of his life to bulking up and working on fine tuning his game starting in June 2018, or MAYBE make $10M-$12M starting in June 2019 and dedicate every waking hour to bulking up and working on fine tuning his game.  Waiting another year is a pretty big gamble when you already have $5M-$7M sitting on the table waiting for you to pick it up. 

[Hogz87]

I'm not much on knowing NBA dollar numbers for draftees.  Does a second round NBA pick get 3 to 5 million as a rookie?  I really don't know. 

A second round draft pick in the NBA doesn't have a guaranteed contract.  They can be cut after training camp and their NBA team doesn't suffer any kind of salary cap hit.  A first round pick has a guaranteed contract and, again, pretty much everyone has Gafford as a comfortable 1st round pick.

[MikePiazza]

He is mocking in the late teens, early 20s by most I've seen.

That being said, the guys that do these miss all the time. Portis was mocking in the 13-14 range all of 2015 and didn't get drafted until 22.

I talked to a scout for the Bulls a week or so back and he said that Gafford wasn't on their radar. Not that he wasn't a prospect but that he and a few other scouts didn't think he was first round material, at least not after a year of college.

[steveaustin69]

Doubt you watch much NBA or follow the draft year in year out with this take.

By the way, Clint Capela averages 26 minutes on the team with the best record in the league. He's six pounds heavier than Gafford. Gafford's size isn't an issue.

[rude1]

He didn't compete very well today with Tennessee's forwards, so how could he compete in the NBA?  I agree he's not ready yet.

Geez when are you guys going to learn that today's NBA has NOTHING to do with a player "BEING READY", because kids are coming out early they are PROJECTING what type of player the kid will be with maturation and working on his game full time. Right now Gafford is projected as a mid first round player, regardless of what the pot belly arm chair scouts think of his readiness. Now you decide what you would do based on this:
https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale

[Pig in the Pokey]

If he's a no doubt first rounder, he needs to go.

he's from el dorado - he gone.

i hope im wrong.

[razorback1829]

Admiral Schofield is a skilled, very strong 6'5" combo-forward with low-end athleticism (by NBA standards) and limited upside.  Gafford is a 6'10" PF/C who is an athletic freak and has a fairly high ceiling.  I'm not saying Gafford will be a stellar NBA player, but the vast majority of the "experts" and mock draft sites that have years of a proven track record of getting it mostly right have Gafford going in the 15-20 range; that's a guaranteed $5M-$7M essentially being offered to a 19 year old kid to make as a 20-22 year old kid.  After that, if a player is going to reach their second contract where their career earnings can reach $50M+, they're going to get there regardless of whether they stayed for an extra year or not. 

I agree, his game could use some fine tuning and he could stand to bulk up some more.  However, he can either take $5M-$7M now and be allowed to dedicate every waking hour of his life to bulking up and working on fine tuning his game starting in June 2018, or MAYBE make $10M-$12M starting in June 2019 and dedicate every waking hour to bulking up and working on fine tuning his game.  Waiting another year is a pretty big gamble when you already have $5M-$7M sitting on the table waiting for you to pick it up.

Most well crafted quote. It pretty much takes care of this arguement: I want him to stay, but he's played himself into a pretty good position to take care of the family.

[MountieDawg]

Not really true.  Being drafted higher - say top 10 = $10M+ where as say 20 = $3M over 3 years.  Correct about the 2nd contract getting you more money - but you got to get the 2nd contract first.

Not going to classes and having full time to work on basketball against the best players in the world will help him improve more than taking classes and practicing against incoming freshman.

[AlmaHog2011]

Jarrett Allen went 22nd last year. I dare someone tell me he is better than Gafford at this point last year. I DARE YOU!  I hope he does not come back.  He chose Arkansas and proved his worth to scouts.  Go make that money Big Dan!

He's not the talent Gafford is. I want him to come back but honestly if he's inside the top 20 he almost has to go.

I totally agree he needs another year heck he probably needs two or more but he can bank millions and develop.. If he come's back we get a huge gift he's a monster.

[Pinto]

If someone walked into your house today and said I will give 3 million today OR I might give you 6 million next year depending on your growth, which would you take? If your family is well off, you wait.  I don't know the Gaffords but someone who claims they do said they are middle class.  3-5 million dollars changes a middle class family immediately.  Gafford will be playing basketball for the next 15 years barring injury.  I love when top recruits choose to stay home. I also love when the same recruit can go the 1st round and change his life. Cherish what we have until this season ends and let the young man go be great.

No where close to middle class!

[The NewEra]

I would love to see Gafford stay and develop his offensive skill set in the paint.  To me, that's the biggest area he has to work on.  It would allow him to put on some weight and muscle and be a leader for the young squad we will have next year.  Plus, he will be the talk of the SEC, maybe the NCAA if he returns.

Having said that, I just love the guy.  He plays with a heart and passion for the game you wish every player had.  His upside is through the roof.  I just want him to make a decision that's best for him, but barring injury, his stock would only increase if he played one more years at the college level.

Good luck in whatever decision you make young Gafford.  Arkansas fans have been blessed to watch you perform for one year, that's for sure.

[k.c.hawg]

So much misinformation in this thread from people that know wheather a young man should go to the NBA.

20th pick $3million............no actually double that.

Agent will get 20%......no actually the NBA caps agent commissions at 3%.

what does an NBA scout see.  Well he's not interested in points and rebouds. He see's 6'11", 7'2" wingspan, 36" vertical leap, 12'4" standing jump, see's him out running guards down the floor, checks footwork to see if it is coordinated and capable, does he have good hands, can he catch entry passes, see's rapid development in well less than a year. They are check a lot of boxes watching DG.

[liljo]

I keep coming back to this: what is the purpose of college? To get an education that should enable a person to make more money afterwards.

If Daniel Gifford turns down millions of dollars to stay in school--then he DEFINITELY needs more education.

As a Hog fan, sure I hope he stays, thrives, and makes All-American first team, and is a lotto pick. But none of us are guaranteed any tomorrows. If the NBA throws 3,4,5 million or more at him, then I don't know how anyone could blame him for going--or even expect him to stay.

[jm]

He does everything many if not most NBA teams will ask of him. The days of having a center "post up" are mostly over. The NBA is all pick and roll now. The hard part is finding guys that are close to 7' and quick enough to get from the rim to the 3 point line and back with the additional ability to rebound. That is exactly his strength.

[Pinto]

So much misinformation in this thread from people that know wheather a young man should go to the NBA.

20th pick $3million............no actually double that.

Agent will get 20%......no actually the NBA caps agent commissions at 3%.

what does an NBA scout see.  Well he's not interested in points and rebouds. He see's 6'11", 7'2" wingspan, 36" vertical leap, 12'4" standing jump, see's him out running guards down the floor, checks footwork to see if it is coordinated and capable, does he have good hands, can he catch entry passes, see's rapid development in well less than a year. They are check a lot of boxes watching DG.

Agents don't get commission from his rookie contract

[thebignasty]

Everything I was trying to say in a nutshell. 

Me and Golfinpig are not NBA scouts, but we kinda are.

If he goes, he's going to be in the first round.  You'll be the only nba scout who is stunned.

[code red]

If he's a no doubt first rounder, he needs to go.

This.  Plus tho OP said he is not ready.  Maybe true but, look at how much Gafford has grown in the last 4 games?  Do you really think he won't do the same in the NBA summer league?  In addition.  He is improving with little to no help in the paint.  He IS ready, to get paid.

[Kevin]

Gafford is not ready to play and help an nba ream win

Gafford is ready to be a top 20 pick

[thebignasty]

Gafford is not ready to play and help an nba ream win

Gafford is ready to be a top 20 pick

This is true.

[rude1]

Admiral Schofield is a skilled, very strong 6'5" combo-forward with low-end athleticism (by NBA standards) and limited upside.  Gafford is a 6'10" PF/C who is an athletic freak and has a fairly high ceiling.  I'm not saying Gafford will be a stellar NBA player, but the vast majority of the "experts" and mock draft sites that have years of a proven track record of getting it mostly right have Gafford going in the 15-20 range; that's a guaranteed $5M-$7M essentially being offered to a 19 year old kid to make as a 20-22 year old kid.  After that, if a player is going to reach their second contract where their career earnings can reach $50M+, they're going to get there regardless of whether they stayed for an extra year or not. 

I agree, his game could use some fine tuning and he could stand to bulk up some more.  However, he can either take $5M-$7M now and be allowed to dedicate every waking hour of his life to bulking up and working on fine tuning his game starting in June 2018, or MAYBE make $10M-$12M starting in June 2019 and dedicate every waking hour to bulking up and working on fine tuning his game.  Waiting another year is a pretty big gamble when you already have $5M-$7M sitting on the table waiting for you to pick it up. 

Yes. And I have done a complete 180 on this topic, I use to think that if a kid wasn't a lottery pick you come back to improve your draft status period. After listening to others around here it's not that cut and dried for me any longer.

If you are a solid mid 1st round pick, the gamble is to come back and risk having your game picked apart, having a down sophomore season, or having an injury. If a kid wants to come back because he loves college, is in no hurry to get to the NBA, or wants to gamble he will move up in the draft, I understand. But the right dollars and cents decision is to take the money and start your NBA career.

[razorback1829]

Kid comes from a poor background. He has a chance to take care generations of his family. Thankful for him being a Hog. Hope he comes back, but man that would be tough for me personally. The chance to take care of everybody is priority.

[Letsroll1200]

I think Gafford should declare for the draft and not hire a agent. Go and put  his best feet forward at the combine and if he's a top 15 pick, take the money.
I would like to see him return and see can he lead the team next season. He was just not effective yesterday against 6'5-6'6 guys. He should've been the best post player on the court yesterday.

[Pinto]

I think Gafford should declare for the draft and not hire a agent. Go and put  his best feet forward at the combine and if he's a top 15 pick, take the money.
I would like to see him return and see can he lead the team next season. He was just not effective yesterday against 6'5-6'6 guys. He should've been the best post player on the court yesterday.

He'll definitely test the waters

[King Kong]

It's not about being "ready" it's about getting paid.

He can get paid and paid well if current projections remain true

[King Kong]

Kid comes from a poor background. He has a chance to take care generations of his family. Thankful for him being a Hog. Hope he comes back, but man that would be tough for me personally. The chance to take care of everybody is priority.

When I was a kid. I thought every one should come back. College is a once in a lifetime thing.

Now that I'm an adult and understand how life changing this type of money is. I say go make it now. His athleticism won't always be there. Make as much as he can

[Wooderson]

Gafford is not ready to play and help an nba ream win

Gafford is ready to be a top 20 pick

Gafford will be drafted on potential in the first round.  It won't be based upon his performance because he was often DOMINATED by quality big men.  However, he has all the physical tools to be a dominant player in a couple of years with NBA development. 

[redneckfriend]

First I'll dispute my statement—
-I admit it's coming from a place of "homerism."
-He doesn't need to stay in college another year to develop his body, shooting, defense/play against other big men--an NBA D-league can take that on.
-The $$ is better in the pros.
If those points are in the counter-argument, I have nothing to say.

The real reason I say he isn't ready, he just doesn't pass the eye test. We can all say "he's gone" after his windmill dunk yesterday. But is he always dominant? No. Does he have a complete game yet? No. Look, there are clear first-rounders that still don't make the big squad after they're drafted. How do NBA teams look at "projects"? (I don't know the answer to that.) A guy with his frame is NOT going to become a type of center who battles guys with big-time size--I doubt he's going to grow and inch or two and put on 50 plus pounds. For Gafford to succeed, he has to find his place, his game.

OK, fire away.

So you're saying he is a forward and needs to be able to score away from the basket?  As far as "projects" I don't think you have to look further than Portis. He really wasn't ready to step in when he was drafted but the NBA thought that, with professional coaching, he would be able to take the next step.

The whole issue of whether or not Gafford returns will probably come down to whether or not the NBA thinks he can develop under the tutelage of a pro coach. If they do they will signal it and he will leave, if they aren't sure they won't and wait to see if he develops further in college before taking a chance. In this context it is all about trying to divine the next Jimmy Butler, someone who can come in as a modestly successful college player and make the big leap to NBA starter.

[steveaustin69]

If you are smart, financially smart, you go for the 6 million.  People act like 3 million is gonna pad his life from here to eternity.  You might want to calculate that his agent gets 20% and the IRS is gonna take near 40%.

Gafford would go 1st round, but mid to late.  But he has a lot of gains to make and I fully believe IF he came back he would move into a definite lottery pick next year.

6 mil is not guaranteed (he could get injured, not develop, etc.), it's a year later (PV factor) and it's gonna take you another year to get to your second contract (where you really make the big bucks)

After discounting for the loss of a year, and the likelihood (or lack thereof) of jumping into sure fire lottery range it's likely in your best interest to take the money now.  If you're gonna talk down to people based on being "financially smart" you might want to cover all of your bases.

Also agent's don't take that much salary. It's usually under 10%.

[thebignasty]

Yes. And I have done a complete 180 on this topic, I use to think that if a kid wasn't a lottery pick you come back to improve your draft status period. After listening to others around here it's not that cut and dried for me any longer.

If you are a solid mid 1st round pick, the gamble is to come back and risk having your game picked apart, having a down sophomore season, or having an injury. If a kid wants to come back because he loves college, is in no hurry to get to the NBA, or wants to gamble he will move up in the draft, I understand. But the right dollars and cents decision is to take the money and start your NBA career.

I agree with the mostly, but I'll amend it this way.  Either choice could be the 'right' choice.  There is certainly the possibility that he comes back and dominates college basketball, and becomes a top 5ish pick.  If he does that, the extra year in college was worth it. Its definitely safer to take the money now, imo, but coming back isn't totally without merit.

[rzrbackramsfan]

Rzrbackramsfan checking in here, the same guy that refused to call Gafford anything less than a 5 star and repeatedly said he will most likely be a 1 and done months before he stepped foot on campus. I'm here to say that he is ready for the NBA.  If he goes pro next year, he'll get productive minutes running the court, dunking it, rebounding and blocking shots. 

Whatever decision Gafford makes will be a good decision. 

[PonderinHog]

If we get to see him play in three more games as a Hog, we'll be lucky.

[k.c.hawg]

Agents don't get commission from his rookie contract

Of course they do. It can be a fee or a % but regardless it's capped at 3%. They ceratainly don't have as much work to do as they used to but there is still 30% to 40% of wiggle room in contracts from 120% of slot down to 80% of slot. That is worth paying for.

[RebHog]

Yes. And I have done a complete 180 on this topic, I use to think that if a kid wasn't a lottery pick you come back to improve your draft status period. After listening to others around here it's not that cut and dried for me any longer.

If you are a solid mid 1st round pick, the gamble is to come back and risk having your game picked apart, having a down sophomore season, or having an injury. If a kid wants to come back because he loves college, is in no hurry to get to the NBA, or wants to gamble he will move up in the draft, I understand. But the right dollars and cents decision is to take the money and start your NBA career.

This I would love for him to stay but I think its a bigger gamble at this point for him to return. With Barford and Macon leaving his name will be circled on every team's scouting report we play and will be the main focal point to stop.

[rtr]

He will get paid but life in the "D" league is probably not as rewarding as college.

[KlubhouseKonnected]

Not really... The contracts for the 1st 3 years are capped.... Your real money starts in the NBA in year four.  His body will have gotten bigger and stronger and his shooting will have gotten better.  Fining a player of his size with his athletic ability is what the NBA dreams about.  If he would have had the same supporting cast Anthony Davis did in college he may have out performed him.  It will be his decision on how he wants to handle it but coming back to a team losing all those seniors will not help in his spotlight time.  You cannon teach size and athletic ability... He has both. 

I'm afraid he has it pegged pretty much the same as me.

[PonderinHog]

He will get paid but life in the "D" league is probably not as rewarding as college.

Except for the "getting paid" part.

[KlubhouseKonnected]

He may be. But he will definitely be more of a man at 19 than 17. Just think about yourself at that age. Corliss was a beast as a freshman but still a boy at 18. At 20 years old he was a mature man and much more ready than he was at 18 as a freshman. Gafford will be 20 in October and then his body will be more of a man than a boy. My dad used to tell me my balls hadn't dropped by then. Let's hope he doesn't rush it. But millions are calling.

Your dad sounds like an interesting dude.

[KlubhouseKonnected]

Going just because you are a first round pick really isn't wise. Who drafts you has as much or more to do with individual success.

Portis comes to mind. He was drafted as more of a best available guy rather than a player targeted to become a core member of the Bulls future. As such, the Bulls have never really invested in Portis in terms of playing time and opportunity.

If your ceiling is as a mid first rounder then you go for the check first chance you get.

If you can play another year of college ball with a realistic chance to improve your draft slotting, then you are committing career suicide going in the draft just because you can.

Yeah but Portis is about to get PAID.

And it won't be in Chicago.

[TNhawgfan]

If bar and Macon were not seniors, i might consider coming back to have that really special year. But looking at what the roster will be next year, I'd be gone. Of course, no one will ever confuse me for first round talent

[riccoar]

So much misinformation in this thread from people that know wheather a young man should go to the NBA.

20th pick $3million............no actually double that.

Agent will get 20%......no actually the NBA caps agent commissions at 3%.

what does an NBA scout see.  Well he's not interested in points and rebouds. He see's 6'11", 7'2" wingspan, 36" vertical leap, 12'4" standing jump, see's him out running guards down the floor, checks footwork to see if it is coordinated and capable, does he have good hands, can he catch entry passes, see's rapid development in well less than a year. They are check a lot of boxes watching DG.

My commission percentage was wrong. But 20th pick is $4 million for 2 year contract. So 2 mil per year.  Now compare that to a lottery pick. I'd wait and cash in.