Should the SEC expand to 16 teams??????

[GuvHog]

This creates two possibilities for realignment within the SEC.  Alabama and Auburn to the East and Missouri to the West makes sense from the standpoint of geographics and natural rivalries, both of which increase ticket sales.  Balance may shift in favor of the East, but the West would still be a bear with Oklahoma, LSU, Arkansas, A&M, Ole Miss, Oklahoma State, Missouri and Mississippi State ranking in about that order historically.  The East would be Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn, South Carolina, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.  Stronger through the top 5 than the West, but less balanced from top to bottom.  The East would preserve many of the old guard rivalries and original SEC tradition. Conference games could go to 9, with one rotation and one permanent rival. 

Another way to divide the conference would be North and South.  It might look like this:

North                      South

Oklahoma              Alabama
Tennessee             Florida
Arkansas                LSU
Oklahoma State    Georgia
Missouri                 Auburn
South Carolina      A&M
Kentucky                Ole Miss
Vanderbilt              Mississippi State

The South here might be too strong, and the rivalries don't set up as well.  Either realignment favors Arkansas though - geographically and with respect to relative position within its division.

This might be better:

WESTERN DIVISION

Arkansas
LSU
Ole Miss
Miss. State
Missouri
Texas A&M
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State

EASTERN DIVISION

Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt

[bphi11ips]

I tried coming up with 8 10 team conferences but could only get to 7.  Just not enough teams without watering down the conferences.  Would end up with a conf with a Texas and A&M with a Boise and Col St or a Clemson with a USF or Fl St with a Cincy.  Could have 7 and let the piss ant wannabes like the Sun Belt, CUSA, MAC etc have a spot in a playoff.  That doesn't appeal to me much.  I would like to see a solution instead of this progression we are on. 

When you get to 16 teams, unless you do some sort of pod rotation you might as well be in two separate conferences in terms of frequency of facing 8 opponents except for a ch game. 

That's why the natural break is essentially 8 groups of 8.  There will be a few disappointed programs at the margin, just like there are every year with bubble teams and the basketball tournament.

It really doesn't matter whether we wind up with 4 megaconferences broken down into two divisions with a championship game or 8 conferences and an 8 team playoff.  But it seems the natural evolution is to 4 megaconferences.  That simplifies scheduling and preserves as much of the status quo as possible.

[uams1989]

The ACC schools are no longer options. This new deal locks them in for 20 years. This move has blocked anyone from grabbing an ACC school.

SEC is done expanding unless the Big XII imploded.

[bphi11ips]

This might be better:

WESTERN DIVISION

Arkansas
LSU
Ole Miss
Miss. State
Missouri
Texas A&M
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State

EASTERN DIVISION

Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt

I like that better myself.  It's also the way I broke down the East and West in the post you replied to, just didn't do it in column form.  Would have been clearer had I done it that way.

[bphi11ips]

The ACC schools are no longer options. This new deal locks them in for 20 years. This move has blocked anyone from grabbing an ACC school.

SEC is done expanding unless the Big XII imploded.

The search for new Big 12 members may hasten the implosion.  It may also be a ruse that will allow the Presidents to say "we tried" before everything falls apart.  If a Big 12 team fails to make the playoff this year, it may be all she wrote.

[sowmonella]

This might be better:

WESTERN DIVISION

Arkansas
LSU
Ole Miss
Miss. State
Missouri
Texas A&M
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State

EASTERN DIVISION

Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt

For once I vote with the GUV.

[bphi11ips]

For once I vote with the GUV.

So did I. 

[Inhogswetrust]

The prizes would be UNC and UVa.  Not happening though.  And no reason to disrupt the ACC like that.

IF they could get VT some of the old timers in the ACC would say fine. It is the better option in Virginia. I also don't think UNC or UVA would happen either. IF they could get OU and VT that would be a good set.

[oldhawg]

That's why the natural break is essentially 8 groups of 8.  There will be a few disappointed programs at the margin, just like there are every year with bubble teams and the basketball tournament.

It really doesn't matter whether we wind up with 4 megaconferences broken down into two divisions with a championship game or 8 conferences and an 8 team playoff.  But it seems the natural evolution is to 4 megaconferences.  That simplifies scheduling and preserves as much of the status quo as possible.

The problem with four mega-conferences is that the four conference winners are going to make up the final four bracket.  I can see where the ACC mega-conference would be weaker overall that the SEC mega-conference and a deserving SEC team could be left out because they aren't conference champions.  Even if the conference is broken into two divisions, and the conference championship is considered a "playoff" game, it's still an intra-conference game.  A one loss SEC team could be left out of the final four because they are not conference champions, while a three loss ACC team could qualify because they are conference champions.

[bennyl08]

There was a thread about building your own conference.  I suggested using the following quad system:


NW Quad
Arkansas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Missouri

SW Quad
AnM
LSU
Ole Miss
Miss State

NE Quad
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Kentucky
South Carolina

SE Quad
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia

Keep both east and west division- winner of each division plays in SEC championship


9 conference game schedule:

A. 3 permanent intraquad games.  6 rotating games: 2 from every other quad every two years (play a home and an away)

-or-

B. 7 permanent: 3 intraquad and 4 vs. crossquad (SW for us).  2 rotating vs. east division (1 north and 1 south quad)

I think 'B' works better to decide a true east and west division champion.

*if you don't want Oklahoma or Ok State in the conference you can sub in Kansas and Kansas State.

The two east quads just aren't right IMO. NE quad Tenner would have zero competition b/w three of the worst teams in the SEC. SE quad has arguably 4 of the better teams in the conference. Replace Georgia in with Vandy and while it loses some of the geography, it balances out better.

[hobhog]

OU and OSU to sec would be even worse than when we added A$M.

Doesn't matter. Big12 is expanding and there will be 5 power conferences and an eventual 8 team playoff. Book it.

[Hugo Bezdek]

I like that better myself.  It's also the way I broke down the East and West in the post you replied to, just didn't do it in column form.  Would have been clearer had I done it that way.

It's how I'd break it down whether the 16th member is OSU, Texas, or Kansas. Pods/Quads can make sense if you don't have clean division for sixteen members, but I think adding two to the West makes a very clean East-West divisional format that makes a pretty balanced league overall:

West             East
Oklahoma      Alabama
Texas            Florida
LSU               Georgia
Arkansas       Tennessee
Texas A&M     Auburn
Ole Miss         South Carolina
Missouri         Kentucky
Miss State      Vanderbilt

I do think that if OU and Texas are on the table that's who the SEC would pursue. I think the ACC just solidified itself and the B12 is scrambling to remain relevant.

[Piggfoot]

This creates two possibilities for realignment within the SEC.  Alabama and Auburn to the East and Missouri to the West makes sense from the standpoint of geographics and natural rivalries, both of which increase ticket sales.  Balance may shift in favor of the East, but the West would still be a bear with Oklahoma, LSU, Arkansas, A&M, Ole Miss, Oklahoma State, Missouri and Mississippi State ranking in about that order historically.  The East would be Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn, South Carolina, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.  Stronger through the top 5 than the West, but less balanced from top to bottom.  The East would preserve many of the old guard rivalries and original SEC tradition. Conference games could go to 9, with one rotation and one permanent rival. 

Another way to divide the conference would be North and South.  It might look like this:

North                      South

Oklahoma              Alabama
Tennessee             Florida
Arkansas                LSU
Oklahoma State    Georgia
Missouri                 Auburn
South Carolina      A&M
Kentucky                Ole Miss
Vanderbilt              Mississippi State

The South here might be too strong, and the rivalries don't set up as well.  Either realignment favors Arkansas though - geographically and with respect to relative position within its division.

Your east west division has been my thought as well. It would keep some of the old rivalries intact. ie Bama Tenn and allow some New possibilities.
With eight team divisions we would play seven division games and two cross division rotating each year. Eg year 1 Tenn, Vandy
Year 2 Kentucky , SC year 3 Ga, Fl, year 4
Ala, Au. Nine confrence games. 3 out of confrence. 2 cup cakes. 1 power 5. 12 total games.

[PorkSoda]

I like the idea of adding Kansas to help boast our basketball prestige. Football is already good enough as it is.

I agree with adding basketball schools.  but I think it needs to be schools that are competitive all around.  the SEC is strong in football, baseball, track, basketball, etc.  any school would need to be competitive in multiple sports.

I would like to see 16 then set it up into 4 divisions. Every team plays the 3 in their division then 2 of the other 3 divisions for 9 sec games total. Top 2 teams play each other for the sec championship. 

I also like this set up.  it provides for both permanent rivals and variety of schedule.

[PorkSoda]

It's how I'd break it down whether the 16th member is OSU, Texas, or Kansas. Pods/Quads can make sense if you don't have clean division for sixteen members, but I think adding two to the West makes a very clean East-West divisional format that makes a pretty balanced league overall:

West             East
Oklahoma      Alabama
Texas            Florida
LSU               Georgia
Arkansas       Tennessee
Texas A&M     Auburn
Ole Miss         South Carolina
Missouri         Kentucky
Miss State      Vanderbilt

I do think that if OU and Texas are on the table that's who the SEC would pursue. I think the ACC just solidified itself and the B12 is scrambling to remain relevant.

the problem with only 2 divisions is that you play 7 intra division games, and only 1 or 2 inter division games.  meaning you might only play a team in the other division once per decade.

[bphi11ips]

It's how I'd break it down whether the 16th member is OSU, Texas, or Kansas. Pods/Quads can make sense if you don't have clean division for sixteen members, but I think adding two to the West makes a very clean East-West divisional format that makes a pretty balanced league overall:

West             East
Oklahoma      Alabama
Texas            Florida
LSU               Georgia
Arkansas       Tennessee
Texas A&M     Auburn
Ole Miss         South Carolina
Missouri         Kentucky
Miss State      Vanderbilt

I do think that if OU and Texas are on the table that's who the SEC would pursue. I think the ACC just solidified itself and the B12 is scrambling to remain relevant.

Would much rather have Texas than Oklahoma State.  Imagine a schedule where Arkansas plays Texas, A&M, Oklahoma, LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri, Mississippi State, and Tennessee (permanent rival?I'd take Kentucky or Vanderbilt, too, for proximity's sake) every year.  Would we ever make the playoffs?  Would it matter?  Every game would feel like Christmas. 

[shotgun7]

The problem with four mega-conferences is that the four conference winners are going to make up the final four bracket.  I can see where the ACC mega-conference would be weaker overall that the SEC mega-conference and a deserving SEC team could be left out because they aren't conference champions.  Even if the conference is broken into two divisions, and the conference championship is considered a "playoff" game, it's still an intra-conference game.  A one loss SEC team could be left out of the final four because they are not conference champions, while a three loss ACC team could qualify because they are conference champions.

And that is why the play off should be expanded to atleast 6-8 teams. 4 conf champs 2 or 4 at large. with conf championship games NOT being part of the play off.

[Hugo Bezdek]

the problem with only 2 divisions is that you play 7 intra division games, and only 1 or 2 inter division games.  meaning you might only play a team in the other division once per decade.

I think you'd have to play two crossover games with no permanent rivals. If you rotate them yearly you play everyone once in four years and the return games over next four years. You're not going to build any meaningful rivalries with the East any way you schedule it, but you'd add some variety to the schedule and some interesting match-ups.

[Hugo Bezdek]

Would much rather have Texas than Oklahoma State.  Imagine a schedule where Arkansas plays Texas, A&M, Oklahoma, LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri, Mississippi State, and Tennessee (permanent rival?I'd take Kentucky or Vanderbilt, too, for proximity's sake) every year.  Would we ever make the playoffs?  Would it matter?  Every game would feel like Christmas.

I think it would be fun. Honestly I see an eight team Division in the mega-conference era as essentially the same as an eight team conference in the pre-expansion era. That's where our rivalries exist. That identity is developing now already where we see ourselves as members of the SEC West as much as we do the SEC as a whole.

[Hog Nutt]

No

Cut all conferences back down to a size where they play a round robin schedule every year.

Who do you think would be one of the first schools the SEC would boot out?

[duck slayer]

Why are ACC schools the only ones that make economic sense?

Because they add the households to increase the tv packages.  But not any ACC school.  Adding Clemson or FL St. for example would not do that. Adding viewers from VA, NC or Maryland would, plus you get DC too for whatever that is worth.

The problem with ACC schools is that the ACC isn't the conference with the problem.  It's not only stable, it is successful in football and far more successful  in basketball than the SEC.

The stability is a huge issue and does make this difficult. So I agree completely, however, I believe there would be an economic incentive for an ACC power to move.  I'm just not sure that would be enough to make someone leave.

Don't forget that OU and Oklahoma State bring a lot in basketball and baseball as well.  Both are strong athletic programs from top to bottom with SEC caliber facilities.

Agree completely here too, but adding just one of these schools does not help the economics. OK divided 16 ways would dilute the revenue of the league imo not increase it.  And bringing another NC football contender to the league, specifically the west, just doesn't seem like a good idea.  Adding both OK schools would be worse.

I really only think this works if there is a global move to 4 16 team leagues that separate themselves and create a new division of the NCAA and I don't think its likely.  I've just been intrigued with this subject since the days when we decided to leave the SWC.  It has actually been quite surprising to me how slow conference realignment has developed.

[HogScoutMaster]

Yes

[hogsanity]

The issue I have with expansion is that it would just make the unbalance schedule problem even worse. If each div was 8 teams, and they stay at 8 sec games or expand to 9, then it would be really easy to envision a team from one division getting the 2 easiest teams from the other, while another team gets the 2 toughest. Just like how in 10 and 11 I think it was GA that did not play Aub, Bama or Ark from the secw.

I would rather they go to 18 teams, 2 9 team divisions, play 8 division games then play a cross division game that does not count in league standings.

[bphi11ips]

I think it would be fun. Honestly I see an eight team Division in the mega-conference era as essentially the same as an eight team conference in the pre-expansion era. That's where our rivalries exist. That identity is developing now already where we see ourselves as members of the SEC West as much as we do the SEC as a whole.

I agree. 

I also agree with canning the permanent rival concept and adding a ninth conference game.  Rotating two intra-conference opponents not only makes for interesting matchups, it removes the competitive advantage teams gain when their permanent rival is a weak sister.

[hogsanity]

I agree. 

I also agree with canning the permanent rival concept and adding a ninth conference game.  Rotating two intra-conference opponents not only makes for interesting matchups, it removes the competitive advantage teams gain when their permanent rival is a weak sister.

But it can exacerbate the problem year to year. A unbalanced schedule is always going to have an element of some teams drawing the top of the other division and someone else drawing the bottom.

[Pork Twain]

I cannot imagine why UVA or VT would leave the ACC for the SEC and the market they bring would not get me pumped.

[Hugo Bezdek]

But it can exacerbate the problem year to year. A unbalanced schedule is always going to have an element of some teams drawing the top of the other division and someone else drawing the bottom.

As long as you have crossover games they'll always be an X-factor. I'm not sure how you get around that other than the league will have to make some effort to balance the pairings (assuming two crossovers). Even then you can't account for everything. You could pair Alabama with Vanderbilt as our crossover games one year, but if that's the year Vandy has Jay Cutler what are you going to do?

[bphi11ips]

As long as you have crossover games they'll always be an X-factor. I'm not sure how you get around that other than the league will have to make some effort to balance the pairings (assuming two crossovers). Even then you can't account for everything. You could pair Alabama with Vanderbilt as our crossover games one year, but if that's the year Vandy has Jay Cutler what are you going to do?

College football has always had its elements of luck.  That's one of the things that makes it such a beautiful game.  Some detract from Arkansas's 1964 season by pointing to its schedule.  But everyone except Alabama fans now agree we won the NC nonetheless.

[GuvHog]

Agree completely here too, but adding just one of these schools does not help the economics. OK divided 16 ways would dilute the revenue of the league imo not increase it.  And bringing another NC football contender to the league, specifically the west, just doesn't seem like a good idea.  Adding both OK schools would be worse.

Actually if OU and OSU were added to the West, Alabama and Auburn would move to the East with Missouri moving to the West where they really belong so to be honest, it wouldn't make things any worse. See reply #50 in this thread to see my suggested East-West Layout.

[GuvHog]

I cannot imagine why UVA or VT would leave the ACC for the SEC and the market they bring would not get me pumped.

They won't leave the ACC, no team will because they just strengthened their loyalty clause and it would be ridiculously expensive for any school to leave. Any team that leaves would lose their TV rights for years.

[hogsanity]

Actually if OU and OSU were added to the West, Alabama and Auburn would move to the East with Missouri moving to the West where they really belong so to be honest, it wouldn't make things any worse. See reply #50 in this thread to see my suggested East-West Layout.

Bama would move to the east IF bama wanted to move to the east. The reason they are in the west now is because they dictated that when the sec went to 2 divisions.

[GuvHog]

Bama would move to the east IF bama wanted to move to the east. The reason they are in the west now is because they dictated that when the sec went to 2 divisions.

Both Bama and Auburn have already agreed to move to the East when the need arises and Missouri was promised that they would eventually be moved to the West when they joined so it would work perfectly if OU and OSU decide to make the move. I have heard that both schools have standing invitations to join the SEC and have had them for some time now but I can't verify that its true.

[Inhogswetrust]

I cannot imagine why UVA or VT would leave the ACC for the SEC and the market they bring would not get me pumped.

Virginia has OVER 8 million people. They also have 4 good sized media markets (including DC). VT fans are football CRAZY just like in the SEC and it is close to the current SEC footprint. I've lived there and worked there and VT would be a very good addition.

P.S. The current attendance record for college football is ND/ Michigan at a little over 115,000. The upcoming game between Tennessee and VT in Bristol is expected to blow that out of the water and might fill the speedway there and could draw in excess of 150,000. 

[Inhogswetrust]

Both Bama and Auburn have already agreed to move to the East when the need arises and Missouri was promised that they would eventually be moved to the West when they joined so it would work perfectly if OU and OSU decide to make the move. I have heard that both schools have standing invitations to join the SEC and have had them for some time now but I can't verify that its true.

Do you have proof of that promise to Mizzou? Also doubt both OU and OSU have a standing invitation. I would not be surprised though if OU has one.

[Pork Twain]

Virginia has OVER 8 million people. They also have 4 good sized media markets (including DC). VT fans are football CRAZY just like in the SEC and it is close to the current SEC footprint. I've lived there and worked there and VT would be a very good addition.

P.S. The current attendance record for college football is ND/ Michigan at a little over 115,000. The upcoming game between Tennessee and VT in Bristol is expected to blow that out of the water and might fill the speedway there and could draw in excess of 150,000. 

VT loves what Beamer built and will pack their stadium for football games.  After looking into it more, I actually think this is about the best we could hope for but do not see it ever happening.  Why leave the ACC and at what cost?  I think any two of VT, WVU, Okie St, OK would be my wish list.

I live here and work here now and my daughter is attending VT.  You cannot count the DC, Langley, Hampton, Ft Belvoir, Ft Lee Virginia Beach and NoVa areas in with the rest of Virginia because so many of them are not Virginias and could care less about Virginia teams and that greatly reduces their numbers.  There are also several colleges that split up those numbers (George Mason University, James Madison University, Liberty University, Old Dominion University, Radford University, University of Richmond, University of Virginia, VCU, VMI, Virginia Tech, William and Mary) compared to Arkansas (ASU, UofA, and UCA).  Blacksburg is in the middle of nowhere, even more remote than Arkansas, so at least we would have that going for us. 

P.S. who does not want to be part of the biggest crowd ever?  Several of my DoD friends are going and could care less about either team.  Plus TN packs one of the biggest stadiums in the country all alone.

[Pork Twain]

Do you have proof of that promise to Mizzou? Also doubt both OU and OSU have a standing invitation. I would not be surprised though if OU has one.

NEVER ask Guv for proof.

[Inhogswetrust]

VT loves what Beamer built and will pack their stadium for football games.  After looking into it more, I actually think this is about the best we could hope for but do not see it ever happening.  Why leave the ACC and at what cost?  I think any two of VT, WVU, Okie St, OK would be my wish list.

I live here and work here now and my daughter is attending VT.  You cannot count the DC, Langley, Hampton, Ft Belvoir, Ft Lee Virginia Beach and NoVa areas in with the rest of Virginia because so many of them are not Virginias and could care less about Virginia teams and that greatly reduces their numbers.  There are also several colleges that split up those numbers (George Mason University, James Madison University, Liberty University, Old Dominion University, Radford University, University of Richmond, University of Virginia, VCU, VMI, Virginia Tech, William and Mary) compared to Arkansas (ASU, UofA, and UCA).  Blacksburg is in the middle of nowhere, even more remote than Arkansas, so at least we would have that going for us. 

P.S. who does not want to be part of the biggest crowd ever?  Several of my DoD friends are going and could care less about either team.  Plus TN packs one of the biggest stadiums in the country all alone.

Of all those other teams you mention only one has any draw close to what VT has and that's obviously UVA. I've lived and worked in Richmond and Roanoke and VT is a big draw all over those areas and the DC burbs inside Virginia are as well.  You are correct about the Tidewater area but there are enough Viginians there to draw well also.

[Pork Twain]

Of all those other teams you mention only one has any draw close to what VT has and that's obviously UVA. I've lived and worked in Richmond and Roanoke and VT is a big draw all over those areas and the DC burbs inside Virginia are as well.  You are correct about the Tidewater area but there are enough Viginians there to draw well also.

The point is that there are several other schools to split up what is left of that 8 million that actually even care about Virginia football.  We can agree to disagree about NoVa, but obviously Roanoke loves VT, you could throw a rock from there and hit VT.

[NaturalStateReb]

I don't think Kansas will ever be part of the SEC.

First, it's Kansas.  It's hard to imagine somewhere less SEC country that close to actual SEC country.  It's a good school with good basketball, but it would be a cultural and geographical outlier. 

Second, it doesn't bring any markets that Missouri doesn't already bring. 

Third, we're going to have to move some teams around to make this work.  It's hard to imagine moving Bama and Auburn to the East just so Missouri and Kansas can get the band back together in the West.  It would disrupt the competitive balance of the league.

[Exit Pursued by a Boar]

If it's about television and similar fit, I see the ACC as the place to raid, if that's all possible. It may not be given the new tv agreement they've signed.  And, if I were king, I'd look at VT and UNC/NC State.  I'd prefer UNC over NC State, but I think NC State to be more likely.  WVU from the Big 12 would be a possibility as would Maryland from the Big 10 (nobody in college football can count anymore).  As much as I personally would like to play OU or OSU every year, the market is in the East Coast.  You want DC, Baltimore, Richmond, Norfolk/VA Beach/Hampton Roads or maybe the cities in the Carolinas.  VT and WVU would bring in DC, VA cities, and Baltimore as would Maryland (sort of). They may even bring some Ohio and PA markets.  A Carolina school would draw Carolina eyes and maybe the southern VA cities.

In reality, though, I see the SEC taking a wait and see approach.  They may have plans if things start moving, but the SEC is fine where it is.

EFBAB

[TPS_Report]

ECU?  Come on, need schools at the SEC level.

For me, I want Oklahoma and Texas.  Let the Big 12 expand to 14 so that when their GOR expires, Oklahoma and Texas can leave their little brothers in a decent conference. 

Put us in a pod with UT, OU, Mizzou and rivalry games against A&M and Ole Miss.  (LSU would have rivalry games with Alabama and Auburn). The other pods would be:
2. A&M, LSU, MSU Ole Miss
3. Bama, Tenner, Vandy, UK
4. UGa, FL, Auburn, USCE

What is the world coming to when Razorbacks want to invite the orange menace into the SEC?  For shame!  Those jerks have destroyed two conferences already, don't give them a shot at this one.

[GuvHog]

Do you have proof of that promise to Mizzou? Also doubt both OU and OSU have a standing invitation. I would not be surprised though if OU has one.

It was discussed a great deal on the ESPN networks when Missouri joined the SEC. When informed that they were to become part of the SEC East Missouri balked on it until the SEC agreed to eventually move then to the West.

[bphi11ips]

For purposes of perpetuating an argument on Hogville, it's fine to talk about the impact adding a school to the SEC will have on the conference "footprint" as if it were the only factor to consider.  But numerous factors will determine long-term conference affiliation, and they will be the same factors that have always determined conference affiliation with the added dimension of the emerging football playoff system. 

Conference television revenue is likely to have a bell shape like all business.  Geography has no bell shape.  They aren't making any new land.  The first sign the Big 12 was in trouble was when West Virginia became a member.

Related to geography are time zones.  Muskogee pointed out the two hour difference between Austin and Los Angeles.  That may be a bigger hurdle to a Texas/PAC 12 affiliation than Texas pride.  Texas fans won't be excited about 9:00 pm kickoffs.  Few have three or four days to drive to games and back.  Airline capacity is limited no matter how many can afford to fly.  Those problems work in reverse for west coast schools. 

Geography also drives rivalries.  Rivalries drive interest.  Interest drives loyalty.  Loyalty and geography drive enrollment, philanthropy, and, to a large extent, recruiting. 

Virginia Tech has a lot to offer and would make a better addition, in my opinion, to the SEC than Oklahoma State.  The Virginia television footprint is one reason.  Tennessee/Virginia Tech is a natural geographic/cultural rivalry, and Virginia Tech fits well within the Southeast geographic footprint.  But I don't see the SEC "raiding" the ACC for television ratings.  If it makes sense to Virginia Tech to petition the SEC for admittance, then the SEC would surely consider it.  But I don't see SEC officials having this discussion in the boardroom with the defining consideration being television ratings. 

At the end of the day, the emerging playoff structure, geography, and strength of athletics at a given school, with special emphasis on football, will determine conference realignment.  Much of that realignment has already occurred.  The only conference structure that doesn't currently make sense is the Big 12.  Adding four metro-based schools further dilutes the power and prestige of the conference.  The more remote those schools are to the heart of the conference, which is Austin to Dallas to Norman, the more fractured it will become. 

It may be that the Texas problem will ultimately preserve the Big 12 in the short run.  Surely Big 12 administrators and fans want to see the conference preserved.  Maybe the NCAA and the other four P5 conferences will do whatever it takes to prop the Big 12 up.  A playoff system can be devised to support any number of eligible teams.  The metro schools under consideration now may be able to elevate their football programs to P5 level.  Houston has been there many times in the past and appears to be there now.  Houston's metro population is 6.3 million, over the twice the population of Arkansas.  Houston's problem has always been that it is essentially an urban school with comparatively little local interest in the football program.

It seems to me the writing is on the wall where the Big 12 is concerned.  An even number of conferences and divisions works best for a playoff system.  Coincidentally or not, there are currently 128 schools in the FBS.  Of course, "FBS" is now a misnomer.  Break it in half, and you have FCS I and FCS II.  The current FCS becomes FCS III.  Or maybe the "playoff" designation becomes obsolete when every division has a playoff.  NCAA I, II and III may make sense. 

No matter what you call them, two NCAA divisions of 64 teams each is a natural solution in the existing landscape.  Each division would have four major conferences, divided into 8 or 4 team subdivisions.  The number of "playoff" games could depend on whether a game is officially designated as a playoff game, but conference playoff games are currently de facto playoff games for the most part.  Therein lies one of the problems facing the Big 12.  But it isn't the only problem.  Geography and the football gulf between the haves and have nots are bigger long-term Big 12 issues that will be exacerbated by adding remote metro schools to the bottom of the conference.

Breaking down the FBS into two 64 team divisions won't eliminate the need for games between the two primary divisions.  Eight or nine game conference schedules leave room for at least two intra-division money games between upper and lower tier schools.  More importantly, lower division schools won't be relegated to lower tier bowl games every year.  They suddenly become eligible for their own playoff and championship.  Playoff games at both tiers need only plug into the current bowl structure.  Neutral site playoff games are much more interesting from all but the homer's viewpoint.  With more at stake, bowl game/playoff viewership ratings would increase along with sponsorship dollars.  Win-win-win. 

Needless to say, the situation is fluid.  Big 12 expansion/not will dictate to a large extent what happens next.  But if the Big 12 implodes, the structure I am suggesting above is in place for the most part.  Maybe the best thing from a fan's perspective is that we may be close, finally, to a system where no subjectivity is involved, because whether we believe the current committee structure works well or not, until a committee becomes unnecessary, there will always be a subjective component that compromises a true "playoff".         

[scorekeeper]

Drop Missouri and add Kansas, UNC, and Duke. Doesn't hurt football and upgrades basketball significantly.

West             East
Kansas          Duke
Ole Miss        Florida
LSU              Georgia
Arkansas       Tennessee
Texas A&M     Auburn
Kentucky       South Carolina
Vanderbilt      Alabama
Miss State      UNC

[bphi11ips]

Drop Missouri and add Kansas, UNC, and Duke. Doesn't hurt football and upgrades basketball significantly.

West             East
Kansas          Duke
Ole Miss        Florida
LSU              Georgia
Arkansas       Tennessee
Texas A&M     Auburn
Kentucky       South Carolina
Vanderbilt      Alabama
Miss State      UNC

If we were playing chess that might make sense. 

[GuvHog]

Drop Missouri and add Kansas, UNC, and Duke. Doesn't hurt football and upgrades basketball significantly.

West             East
Kansas          Duke
Ole Miss        Florida
LSU              Georgia
Arkansas       Tennessee
Texas A&M     Auburn
Kentucky       South Carolina
Vanderbilt      Alabama
Miss State      UNC

Yes it would hurt in Football, it would weaken the west considerably.

[bphi11ips]

Yes it would hurt in Football, it would weaken the west considerably.

Works for me.   

[scorekeeper]

Yes it would hurt in Football, it would weaken the west considerably.

If that is the case switch Alabama and Miss St. then the west would be powerful again.

[Pig in the Pokey]

Pick a new creme puff for each division so we can have 9 conference  games and everyone can shut up about how we have it easier.

add kansas and duke.

[PorkSoda]

add kansas and duke.

would be good for basketball