Big 12 to Begin Exploring Expansion Candidates

[Inhogswetrust]

I agree.  Memphis is in a good TV market. The city is built to host visitors.

They play in a good stadium (Liberty Bowl) with sufficient capacity. They average a respectable attendance (43,802 for 2015).
I'm not sure how well their fans travel.  They also have a historically good basketball program.

The Memphis TV market is a decent size yet it is divided up between them the SEC the Grizzlies, the Cardinals and others. I've never understood why but it is shocking how many Pittsburg Steeler fans there are here. There is a lot of SEC alums here. The Tigers only started to draw that many for football the last few years when they started to do better than perhaps at any time in their programs history. Their fans are very fickle but I'm sure they would draw better for some of the upper echelon of the little 12. I've been to a game against MSU and there were about as many Bulldog fans there as Tiger fans. I've been to several of their basketball games. They were not even close to a good crowd. Their fans do not travel well except for March Madness and not well at all for football. Obviously the sports media over here in Memphis wants them to get in the little 12 but a lot of them think they are not one of the top candidates from the little 12s perspective even with the Fred Smith helping commitment. They don't think they will get it if it only expands by two teams. If four they think they have a shot. They DO think they should push as hard as possible for it and maybe they can squeeze in if four are taken depending on how hard the other candidates push.

[Inhogswetrust]

Memphis will be a lock for the same and only reasons that Memphis TN even exists on this planet

FED EX and Fred Smith!

Fred has already guaranteed to sponsor the Big 12 championship game, and believe it or not, they are actually doing some serious upgrades to their practice facilities as we speak.

Not even the sports media in Memphis thinks that Freds offer makes them a lock. Remember we don't know what the other candidates might offer. As far as those upgrades they are good but not great. They are badly needed though. 

[Inhogswetrust]

BYU fans making bid for lil 12 acceptance:

http://www.byutobig12.com/

BYU in my opinion is by far and away the best option IF they can work out the scheduling for other sports besides football that do sometimes compete on Sundays. All the rest are probably fighting for the second spot which would be critical if they only expand by two teams and I'd bet thats the number right now.

[LZH]

USF and UCF are in big markets, but they don't move the needle in those markets.  They're basically supersized FIUs and FAUs.  You get a spot in Florida, alright--a spot that's at least 4th or 5th.  You've already got Texas, which is full of recruits, that's much closer.  The number of Florida recruits you'd add by taking USF and UCF would be pretty small--most of those high D1 recruits are already going to an SEC or ACC school.  Taking them would be a mistake.

This is 100% correct. I can not speak for UCF in the Orlando market, but they get zero coverage in the local media here in Tampa Bay even though the two overlap because we are only an hour and a half apart. And USF is supposed to be the home team, but you rarely hear a peep about them either. It's the Seminoles, the Gators, the Canes, mostly in that order......and that's it.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

This is 100% correct. I can not speak for UCF in the Orlando market, but they get zero coverage in the local media here in Tampa Bay even though the two overlap because we are only an hour and a half apart. And USF is supposed to be the home team, but you rarely hear a peep about them either. It's the Seminoles, the Gators, the Canes, mostly in that order......and that's it.

While I don't think the Big 12 is likely to choose either one if the expansion is limited to two teams, I think you have to consider that the competition that you mentioned are all P-5 schools, which may have a lot to do with your point that USF and UCF receive less attention. I would think that it would only be natural that the P-5 schools would get a larger share of the spotlight than AAC teams. But move USF or UCF into a P-5 conference and that probably changes, at least to some degree.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

BYU in my opinion is by far and away the best option IF they can work out the scheduling for other sports besides football that do sometimes compete on Sundays. All the rest are probably fighting for the second spot which would be critical if they only expand by two teams and I'd bet thats the number right now.

BYU brings the reputation and a fan following, but the Big 12 has regional relevance problems and the addition of BYU would only exacerbate that problem and do nothing to help an existing member in WVA. Additionally, it adds yet another time zone to scheduling and one that is at the most western reaches of that time zone.

If they limit their expansion to two teams I think that they try to pick up Cincy and Memphis. Now if they add 4 teams, maybe they try to add one of UCF or USF as well and then maybe Colorado State who has more regional relevance to the Big 12 region. Of course if they add Cincy and Memphis, they could always choose to also add CSU and BYU as a package, but I just see a lot more problems in adding BYU than any of the others. JMO

[East TN HAWG]

While I don't think the Big 12 is likely to choose either one if the expansion is limited to two teams, I think you have to consider that the competition that you mentioned are all P-5 schools, which may have a lot to do with your point that USF and UCF receive less attention. I would think that it would only be natural that the P-5 schools would get a larger share of the spotlight than AAC teams. But move USF or UCF into a P-5 conference and that probably changes, at least to some degree.

I think your right.  If you bring Oklahoma, TCU and Texas (more prestigious schools) in town, that changes the coverage that these teams receive.  Their games grow into events. 

Second point, its about all number of televisions in a particular area.  The conferences want enough support for a particular school or league to drive local cable companies to carry their network.  Once the network is carries, they don't care if people watch Disney as long as they are included in the plan and receiving $$ per subscription.  At that point, they get paid for every television.  If Memphis is split, between NBA, SEC, etc.  it does not matter as long as they have enough support for local cable companies to carry the network. 

[Hogwild]

BYU brings the reputation and a fan following, but the Big 12 has regional relevance problems and the addition of BYU would only exacerbate that problem and do nothing to help an existing member in WVA. Additionally, it adds yet another time zone to scheduling and one that is at the most western reaches of that time zone.

If they take BYU it would likely be only for football, because of the Sunday rule for other sports.

As far as West Virginia, do they compound their mistake? Yes they have buyer's remorse, Andrew Luck's father pull a few strings, but he did his job. Finding a school that would further the conference revenue or a travel partner for West Virginia, is the question.

[bphi11ips]

Not even the sports media in Memphis thinks that Freds offer makes them a lock. Remember we don't know what the other candidates might offer. As far as those upgrades they are good but not great. They are badly needed though. 

What Justin Fuente was able to accomplish at Memphis with its facilities was truly amazing.  You really have to see them to understand how handicapped Memphis must be by comparison when hosting recruits.  Think Arkansas Delta vs. NWA and you'll have a pretty good idea.  That's just a visual analogy and not a comparison of the Arkansas and Memphis facilities. 

I do hope Memphis is able to improve its athletic facilities because it will lift up the city as a whole. 

[rhog1]

http://www.hookem.com/story/texas-lawmakers-line-support-houstons-bid-join-big-12/
Here is the real reason Texas suddenly wants Houston in the Big 12.  Houston will drop opposition to the University of Texas building an expansion campus in Houston.

[Tusks]

This is like picking the prettiest girl on the prison website.

[Adam Stokes]

This is 100% correct. I can not speak for UCF in the Orlando market, but they get zero coverage in the local media here in Tampa Bay even though the two overlap because we are only an hour and a half apart. And USF is supposed to be the home team, but you rarely hear a peep about them either. It's the Seminoles, the Gators, the Canes, mostly in that order......and that's it.

That's about right, people around here are mostly Gators, with some Seminoles and the occasional Hurricane.  My wife is finishing her undergraduate at UCF right now.  Their student population of 60,000 can't even fill up the stadium, even though they are allowed in free and they cancel class the whole day for any game falling on a weekday.

For the same reason, the ceiling is also very high because of that large alumni base they are going to be building.  They are also invested gaudy amounts of taxpayer money into the sporting programs, so I almost wish that they would get into a better conference to make the investment seem a little more worthwhile.  I work in commercial real estate, Orlando is the highest growth area in the state in almost every category.  Ferver for the Orlando soccer surprisingly has exploded and they aren't even that great, so I could see similar enthusiasm if UCF were to get into the Big 12.

[Adam Stokes]

As for BYU, I don't see how a third time zone would necessarily be a detriment.  Besides keeping east coast teams from starting at noon when BYU comes into town, it would only create a greater window for the time slots when you could show games. 

Sunday play is really the only knock against BYU, here is an article showing how adamant they are about it. 

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865656920/Never-on-Sunday-BYU-wont-compete-on-the-Sabbath-Day-regardless-of-the-consequences.html?pg=all

You almost wish that religious based schools such as TCU and Baylor would've held stronger to similar convictions.  At worst BYU could be basketball and football only, and all they would have to do is move the Sunday morning basketball conference title game that everyone wishes was on Saturday anyways.

[Inhogswetrust]

BYU brings the reputation and a fan following, but the Big 12 has regional relevance problems and the addition of BYU would only exacerbate that problem and do nothing to help an existing member in WVA. Additionally, it adds yet another time zone to scheduling and one that is at the most western reaches of that time zone.

If they limit their expansion to two teams I think that they try to pick up Cincy and Memphis. Now if they add 4 teams, maybe they try to add one of UCF or USF as well and then maybe Colorado State who has more regional relevance to the Big 12 region. Of course if they add Cincy and Memphis, they could always choose to also add CSU and BYU as a package, but I just see a lot more problems in adding BYU than any of the others. JMO

I'm thinking they prefer BYU and Cincy. However I heard on Memphis sports radio today that UT is wanting Houston.

[Inhogswetrust]

What Justin Fuente was able to accomplish at Memphis with its facilities was truly amazing.  You really have to see them to understand how handicapped Memphis must be by comparison when hosting recruits.  Think Arkansas Delta vs. NWA and you'll have a pretty good idea.  That's just a visual analogy and not a comparison of the Arkansas and Memphis facilities. 

I do hope Memphis is able to improve its athletic facilities because it will lift up the city as a whole. 

I have seen their facilities. They are not up to par. ANY improvement is needed and supposedly on the way but what I've seen proposed only brings them up to an upper G5 level or lower P5 level. Not sure an urban schools athletic facilities improvement lifts up the city as a whole. Fuente did a magnificent job. It will be interesting to see IF having the QB he had was the reason and that's been true  sometimes at other places but I hope he does well at VT and most people here in Memphis do as well.

[theFlyingHog]

ESPN reporting BYU is making overtures to get into the big 12. Willing to do football only but want all sports if possible

[LZH]

While I don't think the Big 12 is likely to choose either one if the expansion is limited to two teams, I think you have to consider that the competition that you mentioned are all P-5 schools, which may have a lot to do with your point that USF and UCF receive less attention. I would think that it would only be natural that the P-5 schools would get a larger share of the spotlight than AAC teams. But move USF or UCF into a P-5 conference and that probably changes, at least to some degree.

Well that probably ties in with my point and yours. With three major teams (although the Canes really have a lot of catching up to do around here) maybe there just isn't any room for another college program for people to root for in these parts. They certainly have the alumni and the money, and sit right slap in the middle of the second or third-best recruiting state in the country. But I would think that a lot of these people are kind of like Arkansas State and UCA alumni. They went to school there but they are still diehard Razorback fans. If they are going to spend some money on an athletic program, it won't necessarily be their own.

And Stokes, I too would like to see one or both of these programs get into a P5 conference because they have certainly grown enough to be considered and have spent the $$$ and poured more than enough resources into their athletic departments to deserve a shot.

[Inhogswetrust]

ESPN reporting BYU is making overtures to get into the big 12. Willing to do football only but want all sports if possible

I've always been of the opinion that the NCAA should not allow single sport affiliation.

[Inhogswetrust]

http://www.hookem.com/story/texas-lawmakers-line-support-houstons-bid-join-big-12/
Here is the real reason Texas suddenly wants Houston in the Big 12.  Houston will drop opposition to the University of Texas building an expansion campus in Houston.

IF the horns persist in their arrogance then they will cause others to leave the little 12 just like they did TAMU, Mizzou, Nebraska and Colorado. I could see OU, OSU and Kansas leave at some point.

[Inhogswetrust]

This is like picking the prettiest girl on the prison website.

From a male prison no less......................

[LZH]

IF the horns persist in their arrogance then they will cause others to leave the little 12 just like they did TAMU, Mizzou, Nebraska and Colorado. I could see OU, OSU and Kansas leave at some point.

Before it's all over, the Longhorns are going to be "dancing with themselves". I know there is still a lot of pride in that program, and I used to have a ton of respect for them myself. But over the last few decades I have lost most of that, and nothing would tickle me more to see them screw this up worse than they already have.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I'm thinking they prefer BYU and Cincy. However I heard on Memphis sports radio today that UT is wanting Houston.

I can't even imagine the Big 12 wanting to add only one team in the East (to help WVU) and then going as far west as you can go without being in California to add BYU. It makes no sense. But with the guy that they have at the Big 12 helm right now, it wouldn't surprise me in the least. Personally, I think that Bowlsby is doing a terrible job for the Big 12.

[Inhogswetrust]

Before it's all over, the Longhorns are going to be "dancing with themselves". I know there is still a lot of pride in that program, and I used to have a ton of respect for them myself. But over the last few decades I have lost most of that, and nothing would tickle me more to see them screw this up worse than they already have.

I'd have huge party!

[Inhogswetrust]

I can't even imagine the Big 12 wanting to add only one team in the East (to help WVU) and then going as far west as you can go without being in California to add BYU. It makes no sense. But with the guy that they have at the Big 12 helm right now, it wouldn't surprise me in the least. Personally, I think that Bowlsby is doing a terrible job for the Big 12.

I do think, but have no proof, that possible discussions were made back when WVU joined that any future expansion would consider teams close to them.   

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Before it's all over, the Longhorns are going to be "dancing with themselves". I know there is still a lot of pride in that program, and I used to have a ton of respect for them myself. But over the last few decades I have lost most of that, and nothing would tickle me more to see them screw this up worse than they already have.

Unfortunately, and I do mean unfortunately because I dislike Texas on a higher level than most, they will always find a soft landing spot because of the academic and athletic reputations and the financial strength of their programs. If they wind up destroying the Big 12 they will still either land in the Pac 12 or go Independent. I think they want a conference affiliation so I assume that they will attempt to go to the Pac 12 and try to take someone like a private institution like TCU with them to fill in the future Eastern Division of  the Pac 12/14. I'm not sure that the Pac 12 would find Texas Tech's academics acceptable or otherwise it would be them.

On the other hand, assuming Texas is committed to the Big 12 (and I don't think they are actually committed to anyone but themselves), I can't see them ever wanting Houston in the Big 12 Conference. That just helps erode their recruiting base to a greater extent.

[Inhogswetrust]

Unfortunately, and I do mean unfortunately because I dislike Texas on a higher level than most, they will always find a soft landing spot because of the academic and athletic reputations and the financial strength of their programs. If they wind up destroying the Big 12 they will still either land in the Pac 12 or go Independent. I think they want a conference affiliation so I assume that they will attempt to go to the Pac 12 and try to take someone like a private institution like TCU with them to fill in the future Eastern Division of  the Pac 12/14. I'm not sure that the Pac 12 would find Texas Tech's academics acceptable or otherwise it would be them.

On the other hand, assuming Texas is committed to the Big 12 (and I don't think they are actually committed to anyone but themselves), I can't see them ever wanting Houston in the Big 12 Conference. That just helps erode their recruiting base to a greater extent.

TCU has done a magnificent job improving their athletic department. They in my opinion are the most suitable of the smaller schools in the little 12 for inclusion in the Pac12 or anywhere else. The biggest prizes there are obviously tejas and OU followed by OSU and Kansas. IF I were the commissioner of the Pac12 and wanted tejas to come I'd take them only if they morphed the longhorn network into the Pac12 network somehow. I'd almost bet though if the little 12 broke up that tejas would go independent. They are that arrogant.

[Hugo Bezdek]

Unfortunately, and I do mean unfortunately because I dislike Texas on a higher level than most, they will always find a soft landing spot because of the academic and athletic reputations and the financial strength of their programs. If they wind up destroying the Big 12 they will still either land in the Pac 12 or go Independent. I think they want a conference affiliation so I assume that they will attempt to go to the Pac 12 and try to take someone like a private institution like TCU with them to fill in the future Eastern Division of  the Pac 12/14. I'm not sure that the Pac 12 would find Texas Tech's academics acceptable or otherwise it would be them.

On the other hand, assuming Texas is committed to the Big 12 (and I don't think they are actually committed to anyone but themselves), I can't see them ever wanting Houston in the Big 12 Conference. That just helps erode their recruiting base to a greater extent.

The LHN is a pretty big hurdle for Texas to the Pac-12 in my opinion. It's one of the reasons I could see the SEC being more of an option than most think. I could see ESPN folding the LHN into the SECN pretty easily and having incentive to do so given the losses they're taking on the LHN.

[Inhogswetrust]

The LHN is a pretty big hurdle for Texas to the Pac-12 in my opinion. It's one of the reasons I could see the SEC being more of an option than most think. I could see ESPN folding the LHN into the SECN pretty easily and having incentive to do so given the losses they're taking on the LHN.

The LHN is a big problem for all the other P5 conferences. Texas cannot move to another with it in tow as is. That and their arrogance is one reason why I think independence is their choice if it comes down to a little 12 breakup. The only other option is for ESPN to put pressure on them to somehow eliminate it while they find a way to save face for them and the Horns.

[Hugo Bezdek]

The LHN is a big problem for all the other P5 conferences. Texas cannot move to another with it in tow as is. That and their arrogance is one reason why I think independence is their choice if it comes down to a little 12 breakup. The only other option is for ESPN to put pressure on them to somehow eliminate it while they find a way to save face for them and the Horns.

That's kind of my point about folding the LHN into the SECN. ESPN is the network partner for both.

[Inhogswetrust]

That's kind of my point about folding the LHN into the SECN. ESPN is the network partner for both.

I understood your post and it is a good point and valid scenario. However I don't believe that the horns would go for that unless it would mean significantly more money for them do so above what they already get. The SEC would not want to do it unless ALL the schools were given an equal share of any increase in media and I know the Horns could care less about that. They sure as heck didn't care about the other little 12 members when they started it. In other words IF the horns get $10 million a year from the LHN they would probably want more than that from any "folding of the LHN" into the SEC network. Then the other SEC schools would have to get that same amount more or they wouldn't vote to let the horns in. Let's say all get $15 million more per year like the horns would potentially want. Therefore it would cost ESPN at least an additional $215 million a year more. (14 teams x 15 mil plus the 5 mil increase the horns would want). Even if no increase for the horns was involved it would still cost ESOPN and additional $140 million. I doubt they would go for that much less any increase above it. Without an equal increase for all schools in media rights there is no reason to take them. The best scenario would be for ESPN to let the LHN contract expire and then have negotiations for an expanded SEC that might include the horns if they couldn't get another network to pay what they already receive and the LHN folded at that time.

[Hogsolo]

BSU unless they are afraid to add a real team

[Hawghiggs]

 This is pure speculation on my part. But I will guess that the Big 12 expands by only three at first. Those three will be Arkansas, Colorado state, and Houston.  Why Arkansas? Jerry Jones and a huge conference bribe.

1st, The bribe. Its been said that the Big12 conference would receive additional payouts from its media contract. To the tune of 30 million per team. So Arkansas will receive an additional 20 million each season for the first 5 years from the conference. This will be off the backs of Colorado state and Houston. Which will be happy to do it. Because they currently don't make nowhere near that now.

Now for Jerry Jones. It's no secret that he lost money when the Big 12 championship game went away. So in order to get that revenue back. He agrees to form a trust for the UofA. He pays in 3-5 million per season as long as the Big 12 championship game is played in Jerryworld.

The Big 12 will agree to extend the GOR and form an network. They will leverage ESPN or Fox to give them the same deal that the ACC just got. Texas will also agree to put its content into the network. Just as soon as it's LHN media deal runs out.

[SMB Hogfan]

This is pure speculation on my part. But I will guess that the Big 12 expands by only three at first. Those three will be Arkansas, Colorado state, and Houston.  Why Arkansas? Jerry Jones and a huge conference bribe.

1st, The bribe. Its been said that the Big12 conference would receive additional payouts from its media contract. To the tune of 30 million per team. So Arkansas will receive an additional 20 million each season for the first 5 years from the conference. This will be off the backs of Colorado state and Houston. Which will be happy to do it. Because they currently don't make nowhere near that now.

Now for Jerry Jones. It's no secret that he lost money when the Big 12 championship game went away. So in order to get that revenue back. He agrees to form a trust for the UofA. He pays in 3-5 million per season as long as the Big 12 championship game is played in Jerryworld.

The Big 12 will agree to extend the GOR and form an network. They will leverage ESPN or Fox to give them the same deal that the ACC just got. Texas will also agree to put its content into the network. Just as soon as it's LHN media deal runs out.

I would like some of what you are smoking. However; I am sure it is probably illegal.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

The LHN is a big problem for all the other P5 conferences. Texas cannot move to another with it in tow as is. That and their arrogance is one reason why I think independence is their choice if it comes down to a little 12 breakup. The only other option is for ESPN to put pressure on them to somehow eliminate it while they find a way to save face for them and the Horns.

I have no way of knowing for certain but given how big of a failure the LHN has been, I wouldn't be surprised if ESPN would jump at the chance to arrange some kind of settlement with Texas to make that network go away.

Now despite the money involved by being a member of the SEC, I don't think that Texas wants any part of the SEC. As far as the SEC is concerned, they already have a solid footprint in Texas and I am not sure what would be gained by adding Texas. And then the schools who seem to have the most influence in the SEC probably aren't interested in adding the Texas ego to the conference.

If the Longhorns seek to be a part of a conference at all the Pac 12 would probably be their best choice. As a University they are liberal enough to be a good west coast fit, their financial stability would probably be welcomed in the Pac 12 and Texas might actually consider it if ESPN and the LHN could settle up and Texas would join the Fox package in the Pac 12. On the other hand, if Texas is just absolutely married to the LHN and won't consider eliminating it, I agree that going Independent is just about their only other choice.

Of course they can always choose to stay where they are and be smart about this and use their influence to save the Big 12 and make it a better place for all of the schools involved. But I can't see them changing their spots.

[Inhogswetrust]

This is pure speculation on my part. But I will guess that the Big 12 expands by only three at first. Those three will be Arkansas, Colorado state, and Houston.  Why Arkansas? Jerry Jones and a huge conference bribe.

1st, The bribe. Its been said that the Big12 conference would receive additional payouts from its media contract. To the tune of 30 million per team. So Arkansas will receive an additional 20 million each season for the first 5 years from the conference. This will be off the backs of Colorado state and Houston. Which will be happy to do it. Because they currently don't make nowhere near that now.

Now for Jerry Jones. It's no secret that he lost money when the Big 12 championship game went away. So in order to get that revenue back. He agrees to form a trust for the UofA. He pays in 3-5 million per season as long as the Big 12 championship game is played in Jerryworld.

The Big 12 will agree to extend the GOR and form an network. They will leverage ESPN or Fox to give them the same deal that the ACC just got. Texas will also agree to put its content into the network. Just as soon as it's LHN media deal runs out.

For someone known for posting really dumb stuff you might have set yourself a new standard for doing such.

[hobhog]

Cincy and Houston makes the most sense to me, or possible BYU. They only need two and thats all they take. Memphis and the Florida schools would be laughable.

[Inhogswetrust]

I have no way of knowing for certain but given how big of a failure the LHN has been, I wouldn't be surprised if ESPN would jump at the chance to arrange some kind of settlement with Texas to make that network go away.

Now despite the money involved by being a member of the SEC, I don't think that Texas wants any part of the SEC. As far as the SEC is concerned, they already have a solid footprint in Texas and I am not sure what would be gained by adding Texas. And then the schools who seem to have the most influence in the SEC probably aren't interested in adding the Texas ego to the conference.

If the Longhorns seek to be a part of a conference at all the Pac 12 would probably be their best choice. As a University they are liberal enough to be a good west coast fit, their financial stability would probably be welcomed in the Pac 12 and Texas might actually consider it if ESPN and the LHN could settle up and Texas would join the Fox package in the Pac 12. On the other hand, if Texas is just absolutely married to the LHN and won't consider eliminating it, I agree that going Independent is just about their only other choice.

Of course they can always choose to stay where they are and be smart about this and use their influence to save the Big 12 and make it a better place for all of the schools involved. But I can't see them changing their spots.

I agree that ESPN would love some sort of settlement with teas over the LHN but I'd think they wouldn't settle IF it cost ESPN more money to settle than what its costing now. I also think that tejas doesn't want in the SEC but would like to get in the PAC12. The issue of course is the fact the PAC12 has Fox instead of ESPN. Thats one reason why ESPN would not want to settle and lose coverage of them to a good degree. The SEC members would not want tejas with all the things they bring with that ego but they would like to have the "rest" of the Texas media coverage that it would bring. You are correct in that their best course of action as long as they insist on the LHN is to stay put and play nicer in the little12. The problem with that is what will ESPN do when the LHN contract expires. IF they decide to pull the plug then the horns will need to do something.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I agree that ESPN would love some sort of settlement with teas over the LHN but I'd think they wouldn't settle IF it cost ESPN more money to settle than what its costing now. I also think that tejas doesn't want in the SEC but would like to get in the PAC12. The issue of course is the fact the PAC12 has Fox instead of ESPN. Thats one reason why ESPN would not want to settle and lose coverage of them to a good degree. The SEC members would not want tejas with all the things they bring with that ego but they would like to have the "rest" of the Texas media coverage that it would bring. You are correct in that their best course of action as long as they insist on the LHN is to stay put and play nicer in the little12. The problem with that is what will ESPN do when the LHN contract expires. IF they decide to pull the plug then the horns will need to do something.

I'm not sure when that LHN deal expires with ESPN but I'll bet ESPN is counting the days.

[Inhogswetrust]

I'm not sure when that LHN deal expires with ESPN but I'll bet ESPN is counting the days.

I'd bet negotiations will take place long before that and ESPN doesn't renew anything close to what it currently is if at all. They will not make the same mistake twice and continue to lose that much money when they have control as to knowingly doing so or not. The horns will not have a position of power in those negotiations.

[hog1984]

The Big 12 doesn't really have good longterm options.  Oklahoma and Texas are the only true power players in the league.  The others have dragged them down closer to their level since realignment began in earnest after Arkansas left the SWC and the Big 8 and SWC merged.  Adding metropolitan schools only further dilutes conference power and prestige.  To do that for a short term benefit in a nascent playoff situation doesn't make sense.

The better option for Texas and Oklahoma is to petition the SEC, PAC, or B1G for admission and leave the rest scrambling.  The SEC offers the best regional/cultural fit, but it would also be the most difficult conference in which to compete for titles.

I'll predict Big 12 expansion doesn't happen, Oklahoma and Texas bolt, and we wind up sooner than later with four 16-team super conferences.  The rest  of the Big 12 scramble for the remaining slots in the Big 64.

I agree. But Texas has to back out of their ESPN TV deal or they will be an independent when OU bolts.

[hog1984]

This is pure speculation on my part. But I will guess that the Big 12 expands by only three at first. Those three will be Arkansas, Colorado state, and Houston.  Why Arkansas? Jerry Jones and a huge conference bribe.

1st, The bribe. Its been said that the Big12 conference would receive additional payouts from its media contract. To the tune of 30 million per team. So Arkansas will receive an additional 20 million each season for the first 5 years from the conference. This will be off the backs of Colorado state and Houston. Which will be happy to do it. Because they currently don't make nowhere near that now.

Now for Jerry Jones. It's no secret that he lost money when the Big 12 championship game went away. So in order to get that revenue back. He agrees to form a trust for the UofA. He pays in 3-5 million per season as long as the Big 12 championship game is played in Jerryworld.

The Big 12 will agree to extend the GOR and form an network. They will leverage ESPN or Fox to give them the same deal that the ACC just got. Texas will also agree to put its content into the network. Just as soon as it's LHN media deal runs out.

Hogs are not going anywhere.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

The Big 12 doesn't really have good longterm options.  Oklahoma and Texas are the only true power players in the league.  The others have dragged them down closer to their level since realignment began in earnest after Arkansas left the SWC and the Big 8 and SWC merged.  Adding metropolitan schools only further dilutes conference power and prestige.  To do that for a short term benefit in a nascent playoff situation doesn't make sense.

The better option for Texas and Oklahoma is to petition the SEC, PAC, or B1G for admission and leave the rest scrambling.  The SEC offers the best regional/cultural fit, but it would also be the most difficult conference in which to compete for titles.

I'll predict Big 12 expansion doesn't happen, Oklahoma and Texas bolt, and we wind up sooner than later with four 16-team super conferences.  The rest  of the Big 12 scramble for the remaining slots in the Big 64.

And there is the problem, bp. Being from this state (and maybe others who live here will have differing opinions) I have seen how closely tied OU and OSU are in terms of state politics. Oh sure, they hate each other (almost as much as they hate Texas, and I think some OSU fans hate OU more than they do Texas) but when it comes down to it, they have in the past, been joined at the hip. It's a big brother-little brother relationship but politically, the politicians of the state aren't going to allow OU to go anywhere without OSU.

Why? Because they know that 1) the Big 12 would be weakened greatly by the absence of OU, potentially leaving OSU holding the bag because the departure of OU would most likely mean a Texas departure shortly thereafter 2) and OSU isn't going to receive an invitation to join any other P-5 conference unless they go with OU. Their academics limit them and they just don't possess the athletics draw that an OU does.

I'll suggest that because of all of these reasons, along with Texas having to ditch the LHN if they go to any other conference (unless they go Independent), and the notion that at the very least the LHN will be worth a lot less to Texas once re-negotiations come up between ESPN and Texas, that Texas will swallow their pride and try to save the Big 12 by pressing for expansion. If and when the LHN package is re-negotiated, Texas is going to need the revenues that only a conference alignment and t.v. package can guarantee. So I think they eventually forego the LHN and either preserve the Big 12 (and their ability to be the boss) or they go join the Pac 12, where they would meet with less resistance to their considerable ego, than they would in the Big Ten or SEC.

JMO

[Hugo Bezdek]

I understood your post and it is a good point and valid scenario. However I don't believe that the horns would go for that unless it would mean significantly more money for them do so above what they already get. The SEC would not want to do it unless ALL the schools were given an equal share of any increase in media and I know the Horns could care less about that. They sure as heck didn't care about the other little 12 members when they started it. In other words IF the horns get $10 million a year from the LHN they would probably want more than that from any "folding of the LHN" into the SEC network. Then the other SEC schools would have to get that same amount more or they wouldn't vote to let the horns in. Let's say all get $15 million more per year like the horns would potentially want. Therefore it would cost ESPN at least an additional $215 million a year more. (14 teams x 15 mil plus the 5 mil increase the horns would want). Even if no increase for the horns was involved it would still cost ESOPN and additional $140 million. I doubt they would go for that much less any increase above it. Without an equal increase for all schools in media rights there is no reason to take them. The best scenario would be for ESPN to let the LHN contract expire and then have negotiations for an expanded SEC that might include the horns if they couldn't get another network to pay what they already receive and the LHN folded at that time.

Well I'm certainly not an expert on the financials for the LHN vs. the SECN, but I don't think Texas is getting a flat $15M a year, that's just what they're expected to average over the course of their deal. It's probably less than $15M now and steps up over time. I would also expect SECN payouts to the SEC to increase over time as well, meaning the delta is probably not as big as it seems on its face. It would be more likely in my opinion that ESPN could buyout the difference with UT, especially when you factor in the reduced operating costs from eliminating the LHN.

Long-term they also have to look at their media revenue potential in the B12 if OU decides to bolt. It can't be good after their current deals expire. Geographically the Pac12 and the SEC make the most sense for UT. I'm sure the P12 would love to have them, but they own the Pac12 Network and it's struggling mightily compared to the BTN and SECN. Can they afford to buy out the LHN? Maybe they would, but if not is it worth adding probably four new programs based in the Central time zone? If they decide to stay and the B12 expands, what's the long-term effect on OU/UT if they stay in a watered down league for the next decade? It's going to be interesting to watch.

[Inhogswetrust]

And there is the problem, bp. Being from this state (and maybe others who live here will have differing opinions) I have seen how closely tied OU and OSU are in terms of state politics. Oh sure, they hate each other (almost as much as they hate Texas, and I think some OSU fans hate OU more than they do Texas) but when it comes down to it, they have in the past, been joined at the hip. It's a big brother-little brother relationship but politically, the politicians of the state aren't going to allow OU to go anywhere without OSU.

Why? Because they know that 1) the Big 12 would be weakened greatly by the absence of OU, potentially leaving OSU holding the bag because the departure of OU would most likely mean a Texas departure shortly thereafter 2) and OSU isn't going to receive an invitation to join any other P-5 conference unless they go with OU. Their academics limit them and they just don't possess the athletics draw that an OU does.

I'll suggest that because of all of these reasons, along with Texas having to ditch the LHN if they go to any other conference (unless they go Independent), and the notion that at the very least the LHN will be worth a lot less to Texas once re-negotiations come up between ESPN and Texas, that Texas will swallow their pride and try to save the Big 12 by pressing for expansion. If and when the LHN package is re-negotiated, Texas is going to need the revenues that only a conference alignment and t.v. package can guarantee. So I think they eventually forego the LHN and either preserve the Big 12 (and their ability to be the boss) or they go join the Pac 12, where they would meet with less resistance to their considerable ego, than they would in the Big Ten or SEC.

JMO

You make some very good points. Even with all their money where would media revenue come from for Tejas as an independent without the LHN and a conference? With no conference affiliation they don't have to share but they also don't get on TV as much except the LHN and even IF ESPN paid them a little more for it, it still wouldn't cover any lost conference affiliation revenue. They have a good draw but don't have the national draw that a ND has or a religious tie such as BYU. IF the LHN goes away for any reason they need the little 12 to increase any media rights conference wise or if possible join another conference.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

You make some very good points. Even with all their money where would media revenue come from for Tejas as an independent without the LHN and a conference? With no conference affiliation they don't have to share but they also don't get on TV as much except the LGN and even IF ESPN paid them a little more for it it still wouldn't cover any lost conference affiliation revenue. They don't have the national draw that a ND has or a religious tie such as BYU. IF the LHN goes away for any reason they need the little 12 to increase any media rights conference wise or if possible join another conference.

Well yeah, think about it. Is Texas going to join the SEC and supplant Alabama, Georgia, Florida or LSU as most influential in conference politics? Uh, no.

Are they going to move to the Big Ten and supplant Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State or anyone else in terms of influence?

They aren't going to go to the ACC because again, Florida State, North Carolina, Clemson and maybe some other team are going to be the reigning power players.

But the Pac 12 offers them the opportunity to be on the same level of standing (or nearly) of that of Oregon, USC, UCLA, Stanford. Only problem for Texas is bringing another Big 12 member to the Pac 12 to make 14 members and we all know that isn't going to be Texas Tech if for no other reason than academics. TCU or Baylor are probably the most likely candidates and Baylor could probably use a change of venue right now.

But what if, the Pac 12 sees this as an opportunity to move to 16 teams, ahead of everyone else and create a ginormus t.v. package? Texas would then need to bring both of TCU and Baylor and one other to complete the Eastern Division of the Pac 16 with a projected Eastern 8 of Texas, TCU, Baylor, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado. This would leave the Pac 16 West to include UCLA, USC, Stanford, Cal, Wash, Wash St, Oregon and Oregon St.

Would the Pac 12 then pick up Texas Tech or Houston to complete the Eastern 8 despite the lack of academic qualifications? SMU would absolutely "kill" to be a part of this, but I don't think that they bring enough to the table. Maybe Colorado State that would create an instant Turnpike Rivalry between them and Colorado, but that just seems so, "who cares outside of Colorado"?

Maybe the Pac 12/16 would soften their stance towards BYU at that point with the necessity of needing another credible team to add to the mix? If this scenario played out the addition of BYU would be the magic #16 team to complete the conference.

I'm not sure how all of this will work out, but the one thing that is sure is that there are some interesting scenarios that will become reality at some point in the future.

[rzrbackramsfan]

This is pure speculation on my part. But I will guess that the Big 12 expands by only three at first. Those three will be Arkansas, Colorado state, and Houston.  Why Arkansas? Jerry Jones and a huge conference bribe.

1st, The bribe. Its been said that the Big12 conference would receive additional payouts from its media contract. To the tune of 30 million per team. So Arkansas will receive an additional 20 million each season for the first 5 years from the conference. This will be off the backs of Colorado state and Houston. Which will be happy to do it. Because they currently don't make nowhere near that now.

Now for Jerry Jones. It's no secret that he lost money when the Big 12 championship game went away. So in order to get that revenue back. He agrees to form a trust for the UofA. He pays in 3-5 million per season as long as the Big 12 championship game is played in Jerryworld.

The Big 12 will agree to extend the GOR and form an network. They will leverage ESPN or Fox to give them the same deal that the ACC just got. Texas will also agree to put its content into the network. Just as soon as it's LHN media deal runs out.

I'm not sure about all that but I'm sure if the big 12 gave Arkansas around $500MM they would do it. I honestly think that's about how much money it would take for Arkansas to go over and I highly doubt the big 12 is about to for over that kind of moolah.
I wish they would haha, they'd probably have to take a loan out to do it and that would be a very positive pr story for us.

[Hugo Bezdek]

Well yeah, think about it. Is Texas going to join the SEC and supplant Alabama, Georgia, Florida or LSU as most influential in conference politics? Uh, no.

Are they going to move to the Big Ten and supplant Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State or anyone else in terms of influence?

They aren't going to go to the ACC because again, Florida State, North Carolina, Clemson and maybe some other team are going to be the reigning power players.

But the Pac 12 offers them the opportunity to be on the same level of standing (or nearly) of that of Oregon, USC, UCLA, Stanford. Only problem for Texas is bringing another Big 12 member to the Pac 12 to make 14 members and we all know that isn't going to be Texas Tech if for no other reason than academics. TCU or Baylor are probably the most likely candidates and Baylor could probably use a change of venue right now.

But what if, the Pac 12 sees this as an opportunity to move to 16 teams, ahead of everyone else and create a ginormus t.v. package? Texas would then need to bring both of TCU and Baylor and one other to complete the Eastern Division of the Pac 16 with a projected Eastern 8 of Texas, TCU, Baylor, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado. This would leave the Pac 16 West to include UCLA, USC, Stanford, Cal, Wash, Wash St, Oregon and Oregon St.

Would the Pac 12 then pick up Texas Tech or Houston to complete the Eastern 8 despite the lack of academic qualifications? SMU would absolutely "kill" to be a part of this, but I don't think that they bring enough to the table. Maybe Colorado State that would create an instant Turnpike Rivalry between them and Colorado, but that just seems so, "who cares outside of Colorado"?

Maybe the Pac 12/16 would soften their stance towards BYU at that point with the necessity of needing another credible team to add to the mix? If this scenario played out the addition of BYU would be the magic #16 team to complete the conference.

I'm not sure how all of this will work out, but the one thing that is sure is that there are some interesting scenarios that will become reality at some point in the future.

You really think the California schools are going to let Texas come in and start running the show? Texas has the same problem anywhere they go besides the B12, they'll have to come in on equal footing with the established membership. And the B12 well is running dry even if they do expand, especially if OU leaves.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

You really think the California schools are going to let Texas come in and start running the show? Texas has the same problem anywhere they go besides the B12, they'll have to come in on equal footing with the established membership. And the B12 well is running dry even if they do expand, especially if OU leaves.

And you have hit upon the key to the Big 12. As much as many hate Oklahoma, it is they who are the anchor for the Big 12, not Texas. If OU departs, they take Oklahoma State with them and then, the conference is doomed.

If Texas would go to the Pac 12 they would be highly regarded and instantly respected, not only because they are a team with a solid reputation (mostly from the past) but also because of their financial prowess and because their addition would be moving the conference towards an even better financial package that would add a lot of national viewers (not just Austin based). Something that few Pac 12 teams can contend with.

[Kevin]

drop west Virginia

pick up Houston Colorado byu

[MuskogeeHogFan]

drop west Virginia

pick up Houston Colorado byu

They aren't going to expel WVA, though they were a desperation move at one time.