Europeans in BC

[Horsesrus]

I enjoy following European racing and put together my thoughts on the Euros running this weekend.  I will miss a lot of the races live due to visiting my daughter in Fayetteville while attending the football game, parade and basketball game.  Hopefully this helps some of you out and sorry in advance for the long post.

Juvy Sprint
Ceiling Kitty – Broke her maiden on the all weather at Kempton and went on to land the Queen Mary over 5 furlongs at the Royal Meeting at 20-1. Followed up with a 4th in a Group 2 and 7th in G1 Cheveley Park when stepped up to 6 furlongs. Nice story with Black raffling off partial ownership to Betfair employees but a placing on dirt in America during her 8th start of the year would be shocking to me.

Marathon
Fame and Glory – 6 year old exudes back class with multiple G1 wins including a Derby and Gold Cup. However he's only won his initial start this year and hasn't threatened in three other starts, granted at longer distances in higher class company on ground he didn't care for. The dirt is a huge question mark and O'Brien's comments of him being clever and taking care of himself when the going gets tough leaves major cause for concern. Can't consider him unless he's completely ignored at the windows, which is unlikely based on connections.

Sense of Purpose – A quick glance at the pps would have most throwing this Galileo mare out of contention. The price on offer makes me delve deeper. She has met up with soft ground in all three starts this year but when on good ground last term, she won 3 of 5 stars with a second. Weld has taken plenty of US $ back to Ireland with him in the past and has worked over the all weather at Dundalk and says she handled it well. She's won over the distance and would be the Euro I'd include in this race provided she hangs around that 15-1 morning line.

Juvy Fillies Turf
Sky Lantern – Despite his public disdain for the BC, Richard Hannon is making a habit of bringing horses over to compete. This 2 year old is top class coming in with a G1 win at the Curragh along with a second place finish to Certify, who will be champion 2 year old filly in England and winter book favourite for the 1000 Guineas. Ground should not be a concern as she's performed on everything but there won't be much of a price. In a big field and with the travel there are reasons to try and beat her, but her form suggests that will be a tough ask but at the price I'll try elsewhere.

Flotilla – This French filly broke her maiden on good ground before being thrown into the deep end on Arc day in the Marcel Boussac. She ran 4th that day beaten 1 ½ lengths on soft ground at 25-1 but showed enough for Delzangles to put her on the plane. She'll be the highest price of Lemaire's three rides over the weekend and while I can't make a great case for her, I don't feel confident making a case against her. Watch the odds and include if higher than 10-1.

The Gold Cheongsam – Noseda never hesitates to come to America and sends this filly with 7 starts already this year. Obviously was well thought of being sent to the Albany in her second start while still a maiden. Ran a creditable 5th of 14 before reeling off 3 wins in lesser company with the third being a valuable sales race at Doncaster. Tried the big girls in the G1 Cheveley Park and was last of 11 on good ground. Went back to the valuable sales race route and ran 3rd of 19 on soft ground. She should appreciate the quick ground and Buick is top class in the saddle. Post position is a concern but she has been held up in most of her starts so William will likely snatch her up early to get a better trip. 20-1 is a good price for a three time winner.

Waterway Run – 3 for 4 last time including a G3 win when favoured at Newmarket in her BC prep. Beckett targeted this race for her next start and feels the daughter of Arch will relish the quick ground at Santa Anita. Gets Frankie on her back but post is more of a concern for her as she will want to be closer to the pace and faces the task of avoiding being wide with the short run into the first turn. I can't back them all so I would take her on at the 10-1 morning line.

Filly & Mare Turf
The Fugue – Factor in my worship of Gosden but this is a top class 3 year old filly who comes over with every chance but also is the 7-2 morning line favourite. After throwing it down with Shareta in a great race at York, Gosden pointed her for the BC knowing firm ground awaited. She won the Nassau over the same 10 furlongs she faces Friday beating her stable mate Izzy Top, who came back to run 2nd to Ridasiyna in the Opera. The field is too deep to suggest single but she has to be on your tickets.

I'm A Dreamer – Noverre mare has proven her ability to ship with a win in the Beverly D just holding off Marketing Mix, a second last year at Woodbine and when beaten a length in 4th in the Flower Bowl in her last race. The aforementioned Izzy Top left her back in 3rd in two stakes this year so that form line places her below a couple other Euros in here but her proven ability to travel keeps her in exotics plans when wagering and she has kept top notch company all season. No offense to Hayley Turner but getting top English jockey Richard Hughes to ride only enhances her chances.

Ridasiyna – She won the Opera making her 4 for 5 lifetime with her only loss on good ground at Deauville. She ran down Izzy Top on soft ground in her BC prep. The Aga Khan doesn't send many but Delzangles brings this one after winning her only try at the top level. I feel the ground suits The Fugue better and back class is also in the English filly's corner so unless the odds separate between the two significantly I like The Fugue more.

Nahrain – Varian almost pulled the Opera / BC double last year with this Selkirk filly as she just missed to Perfect Shirl in this race last year. Her first two runs of '12 were poor including a beating in the Nassau by The Fugue. She appeared to turn it around in a G3 in Ireland finishing third to Up before winning on favored yielding ground in the Flower Bowl at Belmont. She has also won her scout patch for shipping but her form this year doesn't match last year's campaign. I think she's fairly priced at 6-1 but the form of the other fancied Euros is better and I'll leave her off tickets unless her price goes on the drift in a big way.

Up - She's been a busy filly running 10 times this year. She's made one visit to the States finishing 6th in the Beverly D. She did beat Nahrain two back at the Curragh in a G2 and ran a good 2nd in the French 1000 Guineas earlier this year. That said she has finished behind I'm A Dreamer twice and seems to be just a step below the other Euros in this race. O'Brien did say that she should like the firm ground in America so that could move her up and in other years she could be right there, but at the end of a long season I could only include her if she is completely ignored at the windows.

Juvy Turf

Artigiano – The overall quality of the Euro 2 year olds is much higher this year.  I'll leave it for discussion to decide if the Lasix ban is responsible.  This Distorted Humor colt has been knocking heads with the best in England in four G2 events at all of the top meetings.  Any of the three that beat him would be a very short price in this race so he has every chance at a good 8-1 price.  He has enough tactical speed for Dettori to get him a great rail trip behind Joha and a couple other early pace types.  Form on good to firm is another positive. Very live.

Dundonnell – Juddmonte homebred broke his maiden by 12 against a weak bunch but then beat Steeler in a G3 at York giving him a form edge on Artigiano, who narrowly went down to Steeler.  Both of his wins were on good to firm so US turf should be a plus.  Was more forwardly placed in the Group 2 Champagne but couldn't catch all the way leader Toronado, an unbeaten Hannon colt.  He will likely be mid-pack before launching his challenge in the straight.  Don't let the jockey Doyle concern you as he won on Cityscape at the Dubai World Cup meeting so while unknown in the States be happy that his anonymity might help the price.  Don't see him being clearly better than other imports in the field so it would be difficult to back him as a favourite but if the drift occurs do not ignore.

Fantastic Moon – Connections considered the Racing Post for his last run of the season but opted to bring him to America.  The distance should be no question for this son of Dalakhani and he will eventually be a middle distance horse in Europe.  He won his first two starts including the G3 Solario on good to firm ground coming from last.  This made him the favourite in the Royal Lodge (where Artigiano ran second) but he had trouble 2 furlongs out and managed only fifth place.  He will likely come from far back again so finding a trip for Fallon is a concern.  He has the look of an overlay at 12-1 but for success he will need luck in running, but would really help your exotics in the bottom places.

George Vancouver – One of two from the Coolmore brigade and the first choice of Ryan Moore.  He ran an ok third in the Dewhurst behind Dawn Approach (champion 2 year old) and also ran second to Reckless Abandon, an unbeaten dual G1 winner so the class is there.  O'Brien believes a mile is his limit but being a son of Henrythenavigator leads him to believe the firm ground will improve his chances.  He has yet to win on turf and will likely be overbet due to the Coolmore connections.  Of course he could win but I'll try to beat him as I see his odds below the 8-1 morning line.

Lines of Battle – Broke his maiden back in May at the Curragh and stepped right up into the Coventry at the Royal Meeting managing a 6th place finish in a loaded race where Artigiano finished 5th.   Dropped into a G3 to finish 2nd to a smart Jim Bolger colt who won his third in a row that day.  He prepped for this with a win in a listed stake on the synthetic at Dundalk.  He does get champion jockey Hughes but his form does not match the other Euros and his post position is a liability.  While always dangerous to toss a Coolmore colt, I feel he would be a shocker to place and the 12-1 morning line is surely too low.

Turf Sprint

Starspangledbanner – In 2010 at his peak he would be odds on in this race.  After fizzling at stud he came back off a two year layoff finishing way back at the Curragh in a G3 (albeit a very salty G3).  He showed great improvement running second to Maarek, who went on to win the British Champion Sprint at Ascot two weeks ago.  They then stepped him up to the highest level only to be disappointed on Arc day finishing last in the Foret.  O'Brien then took the unusual step to prep him on the synthetic at Dundalk 8 days prior to his Breeders Cup run and he only managed a fourth place finish.  This is sounding very negative but here are the positives.  He has oodles of back class, his three runs on turf have all been on soft ground and he absolutely thrives on firm ground and they're obviously not just bringing him here to enhance his stallion CV.  There are plenty of pros and cons but if you get 10-1 there's no way to leave him off with any confidence when facing a suspect field of American turf sprinters.

Turf
Treasure Beach – His three year old form shows two Group 1 wins in the Irish Derby and Secretariat.  He somehow avoids the Coolmore hype machine and usually manages to place himself in the top 5.  It's almost unfair to claim him a Euro as 3 of his 5 starts this year have been in America.  He did not run well off the layoff beaten 10 ¼ by Point of Entry in the Man o War.  He also didn't threaten in the Arlington Million but in his last he closed the gap to 1 ¾ behind Point of Entry in the Turf Classic.  The key point being this race was on yielding ground while many of his poor efforts were on firm.  Despite his CV, he's been used as a rabbit before and I feel that will be his role on behalf of his stable mate St Nick and at the expense of Little Mike.

St Nicholas Abbey – Multiple G1 winner and defending champion of this race.  He will relish the firm ground at Santa Anita but will be looking to break a four race losing streak although his form coming into last year was eerily similar.  The exception being his Arc run this year was far inferior but can be excused due to the ground and Joseph taking care of him to run another day.  He's always been just a touch below the top European runners and took advantage of the Americans last year.  This year a top American runner in Point of Entry is waiting along with a top class filly in Shareta and a smart Japanese colt in Trailblazer.  I will play against St Nick this time as I feel his optimal finish would be third.

Shareta – Forgive her run in the bog on Arc day and you have a filly that won 2 G1s vs her own sex and ran a good 2nd vs the boys in her previous two starts including a nose defeat to Arc winner Solemia.  The ground and distance are right up her street and The Fugue's performance will provide another form line to watch having outlasted that one in an exciting Yorkshire Oaks.  Travel could be a concern with her running seventh in a loaded Japan Cup last term.  She will look to reverse form with the 4th place finisher that day, Trailblazer, on a neutral track in America.  She won't be much of a price but at the odds I like her more than St Nick and feel she is very likely to be in the trifecta.

Cogito – Currently trained by O'Neill but previously trained by Meehan in England.  He did not have the best of trips as a longshot in the G1 St James's Palace, but followed that up with a solid second to subsequent G1 Secretariat winner Bayrir in France.  Tried G1 company in the Jamaica at Belmont and ran 4th versus a lot softer field than he will see on Saturday.  30-1 seems an accurate assessment with the only hope being Frankie being able to channel the spirit of Red Rocks and Dangerous Midge while riding a lesser known Euro to victory in the Turf.

Mile

Excelebration – Many in the US know this colt as the bridesmaid to Frankel.  What they may not know is he is the highest rated horse O'Brien has brought to the Breeders Cup.  That would be higher than Giant's Causeway, Gorgeous George and dual Turf winner High Chaparral.  Bar Frankel and this son of Exceed and Excel would be coming into this on an 8 race winning streak with 6 of those Group 1s.  He has won on good ground but seems to prefer some give.  He will be neck and neck with Wise Dan for favoritism and will probably have a similar trip during the race.  I've loved this horse for two years and badly wanted him to come to the States last year for this race.  Now he does make an appearance but it will be two weeks after his impressive win in the QE II.  While appearing to be a non-taxing run after escaping the rail, he drew away easily, but you can't safely ignore the quick turnaround along with a trip across the pond as well as the poor record of QE II winners in the Mile.  I think he is a great horse but he won't be a price and there are questions that have to be answered.  I won't bet him at the price, but I'd be very happy if he won.

Moonlight Cloud – The Euros may not have quantity in this field but they have quality.  Freddie Head can obviously chart a course for a filly to peak on Breeders Cup day having trained the unbelievable Goldikova.   This four year old daughter of Invincible Spirit was a crack sprinter and displayed her quality when flashing home to just miss taking down the colours of Black Caviar at the Royal Meeting.  She went back to France and aired by 5 in the Maurice de Gheest over subsequent Abbaye winner Wizz Kid.  She then tried Excelebration at a mile and encountered trouble to finish 4th though most admit not enough trouble to cost her the win.  She utilized the G1 Moulin as her BC Mile prep and won at even money over a solid Godolphin colt name Farhh, who had finished second to Frankel in his prior two starts.  Admittedly Excelebration is probably a better horse, but Moonlight Cloud has rest and the talents of BC maestro Head on her side.  The firm ground should suit and European sprinters have fared very well when stretching out to a mile on the fast American turf courses.   She'll likely make the last run and while Wise Dan and Excelebration have their sights on the free running Obviously, the boys might all forget the girl that will mow them down on the line at a good price.