Welcome Coach Morris - What's a realistic first-year expectation?

[Hog Milanese]

What's a realistic first-year expectation?

[OneTuskOverTheLine™]

 I said 5-7... Gonna be a bunch to retool, and one helluva time conditioning for the guys already on the hill... It really all hinges on the O-Line.. Enos did a stellar job with QB's compared to any time before Petrino. The QB battle will be fun to watch. I think 6-6 on the high side.

[GringoHog]

Might go 0-12.  Might take 7 years to win an SEC game like the Bielema era.  I've heard that the group of players on the Hill is rich with talent, the schedule is favorable.  I'm overly optimistic but I could see a 7 win season.  The cupboard isn't bare like when Morris arrived to SMU.

[hawgball40]

I say 4-8. Set the bar low and see where he can get us. He holds himself accountable for his teams short comings. I will be happy if he wins 4 games, but i think there is an outside shot if he wins bielema's players over and gets them ready, we could  be a pretty good, albeit slow team.

[phadedhawg]

I imagine Bert's players are looking for a reason to have hope.  It was obvious they loved their coach but they didn't play like they thought they could win a game vs a decent team.  This should give them a new lease on life.

But the talent issue is what it is, I voted 5-7

[DeltaBoy]

7+

[coachingsearchbro]

I think it mostly depends on whether he can get the offensive line play turned around before next season.

I think 6-6 is likely, 7-5 is definitely possible:


2018 Arkansas Football Schedule
Sept. 1 – EASTERN ILLINOIS WIN
Sept. 8 – at Colorado State WIN
Sept. 15 – NORTH TEXAS WIN
Sept. 22 – at Auburn
Sept. 29 – vs. Texas A&M (Arlington, Texas)
Oct. 6 – ALABAMA
Oct. 13 – OLE MISS WIN
Oct. 20 – TULSA WIN
Oct. 27 – VANDERBILT WIN
Nov. 3 – Open Date
Nov. 10 – LSU
Nov. 17 – at Mississippi State TOSS UP
Nov. 24 – at Missouri TOSS UP

[MontanaHog]

6-6 minimum. Run the table out-of-conference (admittedly CSU in Ft. Collins won't be easy), Vanderbilt, and please, dear God, Mizzou. And in 2019 we have to finally beat the Aggies.

[AirWarren]

Got a LOT of weight to lose.



Ready for body by herb to see his way out.

[tasteslikechicken]

Got a LOT of weight to lose.



Ready for body by herb to see his way out.

Damn skippy!

[Hog Milanese]

My vote is 6-6. That's what I'd be "okay with" at this point.

[gawntrail]

7-6 including bowl win

[HotlantaHog]

I voted 6-6.

1. There are big holes in talent -- offensive line was terrible this year, defense worst in Arkansas history, special teams poor, no consistent threats in skill positions like WR and running backs.
2. There will be some mismatches between the skills the players do have and what fits in the Chad Morris faster-paced offensive system.
3. The schedule is incredibly easy for an Arkansas schedule (though honestly not sure how Colorado State and Tulsa will be.)
4. Much of the SEC will be less than awesome. It's a top-heavy league dominated by Auburn, Alabama and Georgia.

Put it all together and the likely outcome is somewhere between 5-7 and 7-5. With good luck could be at the high end or better. With bad luck (transfers, injuries), could be at the low end.

(Worth noting this year's schedule looked on the easy side too-- and Hogs ended up 4-8 and were a couple plays from 2-10.)

[RazorChuck]

Probably 1-11, may improve in year two, but probably never get over 4 wins per year.

[RazorChuck]

I think it mostly depends on whether he can get the offensive line play turned around before next season.

I think 1-11 is likely, 0-12 is definitely possible:


2018 Arkansas Football Schedule
Sept. 1 – EASTERN ILLINOIS WIN
Sept. 8 – at Colorado State LOSS
Sept. 15 – NORTH TEXAS LOSS
Sept. 22 – at Auburn LOSS
Sept. 29 – vs. Texas A&M (Arlington, Texas)LOSS
Oct. 6 – ALABAMA
Oct. 13 – OLE MISS LOSS
Oct. 20 – TULSA LOSS
Oct. 27 – VANDERBILT LOSS
Nov. 3 – Open Date Possible LOSS
Nov. 10 – LSU LOSS
Nov. 17 – at Mississippi State LOSS
Nov. 24 – at Missouri LOSS

[hogsanity]

Everyone needs to stop counting Co St as a easy win. Hogs go on the road in only their 2nd game trying to install a new offense, with, possibly a FR, RSFR or Soph Qb, maybe a new defensive scheme, and will be playing at altitude as well. NOT an easy 2nd game out for a program retooling.

I'd say a REALISTIC expectation is 5 or 6 wins.

[supersaint]

My analysis shows that we should expect a 41.67% increase in wins.  Looking at 5.668 wins. I'll post more later once I can take a break from making bank and put my charts together. 

[HF#1]

6-6 is a solid goal. Schedule is setup to make a bowl game in part because Long thought he was going be able to use it to justify another year for Bielema.

[RazorPiggie]

4-0 in the non conference. I think we could beat Ole Miss, Vandy. Tossups will be aTM, Miss State and Mizzou.

[HawgWyld]

7-5. That's four wins in the OOC schedule and 3-5 in the SEC. Realistic record with a new coach and the talent on hand.

[Coondog Hog]

talent level is better than those who coached it. 7 or 8 wins is possible

[hogsanity]

6-6 is a solid goal. Schedule is setup to make a bowl game in part because Long thought he was going be able to use it to justify another year for Bielema.

How so? Hogs were supposed to play Michigan, until they bailed out, so just how did Long set it up to make a bowl? SEC schedule is set by the SEC office.

[The OTR]

I'd say 50-60 lbs if history is our guide.

[arsuperhog]

My analysis shows that we should expect a 41.67% increase in wins.  Looking at 5.668 wins. I'll post more later once I can take a break from making bank and put my charts together. 

you forgot to carry the one and account for inflation. My statistics show 7.6666666666666667 wins in year one.

[100percentFactz]

5-7. 6-6 If his buddy gus gives him a free win. That's what friends are for. 

[supersaint]

you forgot to carry the one and account for inflation. My statistics show 7.6666666666666667 wins in year one.

I guess you've been studying common core and it rotted your synapses. 
Does your mom know that you have the computer?

[BearsBisonsBoars]

I think it mostly depends on whether he can get the offensive line play turned around before next season.

I think 6-6 is likely, 7-5 is definitely possible:


2018 Arkansas Football Schedule
Sept. 1 – EASTERN ILLINOIS WIN
Sept. 8 – at Colorado State WIN
Sept. 15 – NORTH TEXAS WIN
Sept. 22 – at Auburn
Sept. 29 – vs. Texas A&M (Arlington, Texas)
Oct. 6 – ALABAMA
Oct. 13 – OLE MISS WIN
Oct. 20 – TULSA WIN
Oct. 27 – VANDERBILT WIN
Nov. 3 – Open Date
Nov. 10 – LSU
Nov. 17 – at Mississippi State TOSS UP
Nov. 24 – at Missouri TOSS UP

This is where I am.

[BearsBisonsBoars]

4-0 in the non conference. I think we could beat Ole Miss, Vandy. Tossups will be aTM, Miss State and Mizzou.

If we beat the Aggies, they will melt so hard. That one is circled on my calendar. Most important on the schedule.

[Little Lady Back]

6-6 for first year would be good.

[ICEman]

The SEC is going to show this new hire a good hearted butt whoopin' during his first year. A record of 5 and 7 probable.

[Rzrbckr]

7+

[Hogarusa]

4-0 NC and conf wins over Vandy/Mizzou/Ole Miss

[FutureMan]

I went with the conservative 5-7.  A new system to break in always results in some growing pains.  But there is also the new coach bump and excitement; schedule is favorable, too.  All said, 5-7 seems right.

[GoHogzzGo]

7 wins due to schedule. I could except 6 since he is changing scheme so significantly.

That being said I'll give dude several years to get his system and players in place before getting the pitchfork out.

[PerfectMedium]

I was gonna say 5-7 until I looked at the schedule. We could easily go 7-5

[HWY 7]

If we go 6-6 I think you have to consider it a success, comparatively speaking.

[farmhawg]

7+

I agree, 7 or more.

[BroyledNutts]

I'd say 50-60 lbs if history is our guide.

Hysterical ...

[RexMentor]

You should ask this question after he names a defensive coordinator. Defense will determine what kind of season we have.

[Hoggie17]

What's a realistic first-year expectation?

4 games we should win
The 2 Miss schools games, 1 for sure
Mo and Vandy 50-50
I think 7 games

[Boardon Hamsay]

I'd say 50-60 lbs if history is our guide.

Most under appreciated post of the thread. Well done!

[Billy Bats]

Six reg season, seven with the bowl game.  This dude is going to be legit. 

[Boardon Hamsay]

I shall bookmark this thread and return once I have more info (staff, recruiting class finalization, etc.) but based on what we know right now, 6-6 feels like a fair starting point.

[Tortfeasor]

Just get us to a bowl game next year and I'm happy.