Belmont Stakes...somebody has to start the conversation!

[HogFanInBryant]

Matt C on TVG just basically said Exaggerator is "a lock" based on the group that is under consideration for the Belmont.  I agree with him about 97%, but only because it's always a horse race and none of these have ever been the distance.  I can't see it unfolding where he would get passed by horses like Creator or SBN, etc...anyone totally disagree on this?

[jdelo77]

I just looked at the probables , will Mo Tom or lani do anything ? SBN maybe ?

[cbhawg03]

Think they might set record for the slowest Belmont in history this year. 

Destin and/or Stradavri are the only horses that show any kind of speed said to be considered for the Belmont.  If only one of them enters, you could see :50 opening half mile. 

Every horse under consideration is a closer, Exaggerator, Creator, Mo Tom, SBN, can't recall all the others, but its closer after closer with only Destin the one that would be the actual pace.

[cbhawg03]

I just looked at the probables , will Mo Tom or lani do anything ? SBN maybe ?

I wouldn't discount Lani. He was rolling late in the Preakness and think he will make a run regardless of the pace, but just will Lani actually show up. It's hard to bet on a horse like him, just don't know what he will do.

[yraciv]

If SBN is on the card, he has a shot. Should be an interesting race, and IDK how Exaggerator will react if no one goes quick.

[jdelo77]

If it's that slow will exaggerator be closer to the pace than normal ? Not the usual 10-15 lengths back ? Maybe more like 6-8 ??

[cbhawg03]

If it's that slow will exaggerator be closer to the pace than normal ? Not the usual 10-15 lengths back ? Maybe more like 6-8 ??

Think he has to be. He made that move in the PReakness and got a lot closer to the pace. He was basically a length or two back at the top of the stretch, some of that was Nyquist slowing down, but Kent did make a big early move to get closer and not let Nyquist get away.  I think it will put everybody a little closer and if you end up really far back then i think your chances are eliminated unless all others completely stop due to the distance. SBN, Creator can drop so far back, I don't know if either can make up that kind of ground without some kind of pace, otherwise will have to stay closer.

[kingoftherapids]

made it clear that SBN is my horse this TC, but my goodness cb is right... this is going to be slow. if a closer wins this, it will be a ridiculously talented horse. also... did anbydoy just see that SBN is a ridgling? not a gelding like first thought... both testicles are raised...   

don't know about y'all but that makes me double over just typing/reading

[HogFanInBryant]

I can totally see Exaggerator on the lead if the half is around 50 seconds.  Kent D is no dummy and another thing Matt C on TVG said was it is a farce that Exaggerator has to come from way out of it.  I do believe he has been super close in races early in his career?  I'll have to find his lifetime PP's.

[HogFanInBryant]

I am not sure how good Destin is, but can you see him on a lone lead after a mile in like 1:39?  He'd have to really suck to not re-break and have a shot at winning based on his breeding.

[heavylifting]

Sometimes when everybody is waiting for the closers to kick in, somebody gets loose on the lead and pulls off an upset.

Somebody like Da'Tara in 2008, when Big Brown was pulled up at the head of the stretch by, oh, what was his jockey's name again? Oh, yeah, Kent Desormeaux.

And I had my biggest racetrack score back when Commendable won the 2000 Belmont; he'd shown some speed before, Pat Day was riding, nobody looked as if they were going to bring it early and everything fell into place for me.

Haven't looked closely at this year's field and it certainly seems stronger than the one that went to the gate in 2000 (when, I think, Fusaichi Pegasus won the Derby, Red Bullet won the Preakness, and neither went to the Belmont). But might be worthwhile to take a close look at anything that raced near the front, consider who is riding him and try to envision a scenario that might see that horse tow-rope the field home.

[cbhawg03]

This is he hard part of figuring out the Belmont.

Purely by default, it is not hard to envision Stradivari on the lead in the Belmont Stakes.
With a set of Saturday stakes results that fell shy of noteworthy, this seems like a good time to talk a little Belmont Stakes, and specifically what is to me the most interesting aspect to this Belmont – the abject lack of pace.

As of Sunday morning, Daily Racing Form has 10 listed as possible Belmont Stakes starters. They are, in alphabetical order: Brody's Cause, Cherry Wine, Creator, Destin, Exaggerator, Governor Malibu, Lani, Stradivari, Suddenbreakingnews, and Wild About Deb.

What is striking about this group is not one of them – not a single one – fits the traditional definition of a front-runner. None even fits a loose definition of a speed horse. When Nyquist was withdrawn from consideration for the Belmont due to illness, there went the race's controlling speed.

Now, the Belmont isn't until June 11, so there is still plenty of time for a horse with legitimate speed to join the cast. But in the five days since Nyquist's defection was announced, no speed horse has surfaced as a possible starter in the Belmont, which is a bit of a surprise. So let's confine the discussion to the 10 who are known to have intentions on the final leg of the Triple Crown.

How scarce is early speed in this group of 10? Only two of the 10 have managed to have the lead as early as the second call in any race in their career past performances, and they managed to do it just once each. And the identity of these two will probably make you laugh. They are Exaggerator and Suddenbreakingnews.

Exaggerator had the lead by a half-length a half-mile into the Delta Downs Jackpot last November, and stuck it out to prevail by a neck over the sort of wet track he clearly relishes.

Suddenbreakingnews was a head in front through very slow fractions a half-mile into a one-mile maiden special weight contest at Remington Park last September in his second career start, a race he went on to win decisively.

What's so funny about Exaggerator and Suddenbreakingnews being the two who, even if just in a technical sense, have previously shown the most forward position of the 10 Belmont contenders? Well, as both have emerged, both have also adopted deep closing styles, and I mean deep closing.

These are not coincidental points. Exaggerator and Suddenbreakingnews might not be 15 to 20 lengths back in the Belmont as they have been in their recent races only because the current lack of pace will result in slow fractions, and slow fractions won't allow these two to be that far back. But Exaggerator and Suddenbreakingnews won't be pace involved, either. Even in extreme circumstances, it's difficult envisioning the connections of these two abandoning running styles that obviously work so well for their horses.

Here's another illustration of how little speed there is in this Belmont. Just two other Belmont aspirants have managed to have the lead as early as the third call in their career past performances. In actuality, there is nothing "early" about having the lead at this point. It's really pretty late; in these cases, three-quarters of a mile into their races.

These two are Stradivari and Governor Malibu. Governor Malibu managed to see the lead at the third call only once, in a New York-bred maiden race at Aqueduct last November, which was his first start with Lasix, and a race he won by six lengths. But since then, in longer races, Governor Malibu has increasingly adopted a deeper closing approach. And it's been successful, not unlike in the way it has worked for Exaggerator and Suddenbreakingnews, just to less of an extreme.

Stradivari is not a true front-runner, but he is a slightly different case. He had the lead three calls into both his second and third career starts, which also happened to be his first starts around two turns, and races he went on to win by lopsided margins. Stradivari was also four to five lengths off what was a destructively fast early pace in the Preakness, in which he finished fourth.

Purely by default, it is not hard to envision Stradivari on the lead in the Belmont because it's impossible to picture Exaggerator or Suddenbreakingnews there, or, for that matter, dyed-in-the-wool closers Brody's Cause, Cherry Wine, Creator, Lani, and probably Wild About Deb, too. But what about Destin?

Destin is even farther from the profile of a speed horse than Stradivari is. However, and again purely by default, it is easy to see Destin being involved early because of the positional speed he showed when he won the Tampa Bay Derby in March.

Right here, it is important to note that the Tampa Bay Derby figured on paper to be a fast-paced race, but turned into a slow-paced affair when a legitimately fast stretch-out sprinter inexplicably did not go from his outside post position. That slow pace put Destin into the game early, and the same might happen in the Belmont.

But don't expect a pace battle in the Belmont between Stradivari and Destin. That's not going to happen. They might race for different interests, but both are trained by Todd Pletcher.