Breaking News: AP draws the 4 hole! Beholder in the 10 hole far outside!

[HogFanInBryant]

hmmmm?

[cbhawg03]

Not a big deal. Long run into first turn, Beholder will be able to tuck in easily and save ground. Don't think post position matters one bit for AP, even if he got the 1 hole.

Craziness on Twitter cause Golden Horn got the one hole, when Euro horses need to be covered up then have the ability to explode.  In addition, 1 hole is most productive in turf routes at Keeneland. 

Saw 6/1 ml odds on Honor Code.  Hope to get 5/1 to 8/1.  Will unload on acacia with AP and some others and then include other bombs for exotics.

[jdelo77]

Is the distaff an All button race ?

[cbhawg03]

Is the distaff an All button race ?

Should be but I'm going with I'm a Chatterbox and Salama. Will use Peace and War if she gets in and Pletcher duo cause they will beat me if I don't, but those two will be on small ticket.

[kingoftherapids]

Is the distaff an All button race ?

i have wittled it down to about 10... the guys on tvg would curse me if they knew i didnt hit all but kept 10.

[cbhawg03]

i have wittled it down to about 10... the guys on tvg would curse me if they knew i didnt hit all but kept 10.

Does that include the AE or you toss her until she gets in?

You have left out Calamity Kate, My Sweet Addiction, Warren's Veneda and Salama? I wouldn't leave out Salama, 2nd off the layoff and the horse had some huge wins back home albeit she will have to run faster. Just remember Calidoscopio.

[jdelo77]

I would like to use about five horses , wedding toast , I'm a chatterbox and stellar wind , sheer drama and curalina .. I think that's the line up I'll go with ...

[cbhawg03]

I would like to use about five horses , wedding toast , I'm a chatterbox and stellar wind , sheer drama and curalina .. I think that's the line up I'll go with ...

Personally against Wedding Toast.  Will not play her at all or Cavorting.  Kiaran Mcglaughin is like 0-17 in graded stakes at Keeneland. 

Not against because of the stat, but just think both are very beatable.

The two horses I like are Judy the Beauty and Undrafted, but I'm not sold that Undrafted can win at 5.5 F distance.  Think he needs 6 or 6.5.  Will play him strong underneath with some bombs. 

[Horsesrus]

Not a big deal. Long run into first turn, Beholder will be able to tuck in easily and save ground. Don't think post position matters one bit for AP, even if he got the 1 hole.

Craziness on Twitter cause Golden Horn got the one hole, when Euro horses need to be covered up then have the ability to explode.  In addition, 1 hole is most productive in turf routes at Keeneland. 

Saw 6/1 ml odds on Honor Code.  Hope to get 5/1 to 8/1.  Will unload on acacia with AP and some others and then include other bombs for exotics.

I think Frankie will be riding Golden Horn with extreme confidence and will be more concerned with a clean trip than seeking cover.  Shining Copper should come out rolling and I picture Golden Horn following him out of the gate and establishing position right away.  Cage Fighter is the wildcard for me.  If he decides to press the pace setter closely, I see Dettori edging Horn outside those two.  If Cage Fighter doesn't go, then I see Horn laying second until Shining Copper starts to fade and then Frankie pushes the button and good luck to the others to come and catch him.  If not for the Ramsey rabbit, I would guess that Golden Horn would make all the running like he did in the Eclipse.  I don't want to see Horn using too much energy staying too close to Shining Copper. The only two concerns are the ground and the ride.  I think he is easily the most likely winner of the meeting.  If it comes up very soft there would be reason to try and beat him at a short price.

[cbhawg03]

I think Frankie will be riding Golden Horn with extreme confidence and will be more concerned with a clean trip than seeking cover.  Shining Copper should come out rolling and I picture Golden Horn following him out of the gate and establishing position right away.  Cage Fighter is the wildcard for me.  If he decides to press the pace setter closely, I see Dettori edging Horn outside those two.  If Cage Fighter doesn't go, then I see Horn laying second until Shining Copper starts to fade and then Frankie pushes the button and good luck to the others to come and catch him.  If not for the Ramsey rabbit, I would guess that Golden Horn would make all the running like he did in the Eclipse.  I don't want to see Horn using too much energy staying too close to Shining Copper. The only two concerns are the ground and the ride.  I think he is easily the most likely winner of the meeting.  If it comes up very soft there would be reason to try and beat him at a short price.

Don't disagree, just pointing out that don't think drawing the 1 hole was that big of a deal. 

Any other info you have on the Euro horses?

The following is what I have gathered.

Juvy Turf
Hit a Bomb probably better on synthetic than turf, big maiden win, but never been a route of ground. 
Birchwood has sprint pedigree on both sides so distance limitations?
Cymric has best chance
Waterloo Bridge and Shogun have a chance

Aidan O'Brien has never won with first route runners (0-6 with 1 ITM) and only 1 winner that went sprint to route and won, but that horse had ran a route race before.

Juvy Turf Fillies

Illuminate: Hannon's are 0-11 in BC, distance questions, but horse could be really good
Nemoralia not good enough? Perhaps underneath
Alice Springs been in the best company
Last Waltz: 1st start for Chad Brown after running in Europe
Both Brown runners could win, but will surprises; Chad Brown very good with turf runners, but not as good with 2 year old horses; 3/28 (2 wins Lady Eli) with 2 year olds in graded turf stakes.

F & M Turf

Legatissimo - head and shoulders above anyone else?
Secret Gesture - should love the turf, good race this year @ Arlington
Miss France could improve off last race, probably better than any American horse but not as good as other Euro horses?
Queen's Jewel is probably a toss, connections not thrilled about bringing the horse here. Bawina has better chance and is only reason that Queen's Jewel is coming.

Mile

Time Test could be very good, but will not like wet ground, wants firm ground
Esoterique - worse races have been left-handed turn races; last race could have been a prep for this spot
Make Believe - Marcus Hersh (from DRF) top pick,
Karakontie - do not count out this horse going for repeat in Mile, been pointing for this spot. Don't want really wet turf though, better form than this time last year? Lot of history of horses repeating wins in this race?
Impassable - improving 3 year old filly; spoken highly by some though, but will have to improve
Mondialiste - wants soft ground, the softer the ground the better chance he has. O'Meare possible to take over for A O'Brien?

Winners of the Mile usually have French connections outside of Wise Dan

Turf

Golden Horn should dominate
Don't discount The Pizza Man
Found (Aidan O'Brien back in 2 weeks 0-14 with 2 ITM finishes) and wasn't really pointing for this spot?

Have anything to add or subtract about the Euro horses?  Any other info that need to know?

[cbhawg03]

Also, some add Lasix but the following will not add Lasix

Birchwood
Cymric
Illuminate
Miss France
Secret Gesture
Make Believe
Esoterique
Time Test
Golden Horn

Anybody put much into these horses not using Lasix?

[Horsesrus]

CBHawg, Here are my thoughts on the Euros



Juvy Turf
Hit a Bomb - Seems like an odd start to a BC entrant career for Coolmore, maiden to a listed stake on all weather at Dundalk.

Birchwood - He won at 7f at Newmarket so I think getting a mile at Keeneland is within his scope. Fahey is not one just to come over for no reason.

Cymric - Agree that he has best chance with Gosden and his fine run at Longchamp in a G1.  Post is a concern as well as likely short price.

Shogun - Unlike Hit a Bomb in that after breaking his maiden they thought enought to try a G2 and a G1.  While 6th in the Lagardere not beaten too far.  Adds blinkers and could be a price worth betting


Juvy Turf Fillies

Illuminate: She is very good, Royal Ascot win followed with G2 win and near miss at G1. Distance a bit of a question as she shouldn't get one step over a mile.  Hannon family record at BC worthy concern.

Nemoralia broke maiden on all weather which could explain her decent effort in Frizette.  Not for me.

Alice Springs I would say equal company with Illuminate.  Distance not a question, win in sales race was impressive and has Moore, who is best jockey in Europe (I would say the world but don't want to start an argument).

Last Waltz: Ran well in a G3 but not as good as others above, gets Castellano who is best US turf rider IMO.


F & M Turf

Legatissimo - Top class 3 yo. Had the speed to win a Guineas and the stamina to go down by a nostril in the Oaks.  Consistent as they come and gets Moore. I think The Fugue was better and managed to lose her 2 BC runs so there is hope beating her, but she is a worthy favorite who also has won on soft ground.

Secret Gesture - Did run well at Arlington. I feel she is just shy of G1 level and ran a respectable 5th at Santa Anita last year.  Has a chance but I would want double digit price.

Miss France I think she is second best of the Euros. Form lines littered with top quality G1 winners and her race vs the boys in the Wildenstein was very good. Third off the layoff for Fabre with soft form line behind Esoterique in Rothschild last year.  Very live if price is at or above 6-1 ML.

Queen's Jewel - while I agree she appears to be a reach she does have a G1 win at the distance earlier this year in the Alary. Her French Oaks run was poor and perhaps accounted for the layoff until her Opera run. If she is totally ignored at the windows you might want to try a flyer. Karakontie won the Mile last year with similar lines at a huge price.  Her sire Pivotal is renowned for soft ground prowess so there are some things to like and Freddie Head is not one to just toss without further inspection.

Mile

Time Test - I think he is just a cut below G1 level and his price won't offset my concern.

Esoterique - I love her but was hoping for a better price. She is consistent as they come and her form lines with Solow (champion Miler) (who would be 2-5 in this) and Muhaarar (champion Sprinter) show she is a true G1 horse.  I think she has a huge chance but I want more than 4-1.

Make Believe - I respect Hersh and agree this one deserves favoritism with Esoterique. His Guineas win over New Bay on soft ground is good form and his return in the Foret was a great prep for this race. Fabre and Peslier tick more boxes for his chances.  Eerily similar schedule to Karakontie last year but won't get the same boxcar price.

Karakontie - Won at 30-1 last year but won't be that price again. Long layoff after BC win so you can forgive the 6th in the Marois vs Esoterique.  Improved in the Moulin for a third to top class 3 yo filly Ervedya.  Needs to keep improving though to take down some of these with better current form.

Impassable - Tab Miss France's run in the F&M Turf to get a read on her form. Gets first crack at a G1 but the G2 Wildenstein on Arc day is sometimes a de-facto G1.  If the 8-1 ML is indicative of her final price I would tend to pass.

Mondialiste - Won at Woodbine on his preferred soft ground as you mentioned.  His European form isn't at the level of others though.  A couple G3s along with listed stakes and a handicap suggest that he can compete with the North Americans like he did at Woodbine, but may find this bunch too much to handle.

"Winners of the Mile usually have French connections outside of Wise Dan." Your comment is a very good one.  There have been several English and Irish milers with great CVs that have had their colors lowered by French runners with lesser form.  Some would say the French have a better turn of foot coming off the tight American turns and can accelerate quicker in the shorter stretches over here.

Turf

Golden Horn - As you mentioned he should dominate. The hopes of beating him are the ground and a bounce off his Arc win.  Arc runners have fared well in the Turf, but Arc winners, granted with very few attempts, haven't. He has tactical speed and isn't a slave to pace and beat several top horses in the Arc.  Legitimate short price favorite and most likely winner of the meeting.

Found - she is top class and without a quality male middle distance horse for Coolmore found herself representing the team in the top 3 autumn races for males.  She is a top shelf 3 yo filly that would have been a great matchup for Legatissimo in the F&M Turf.  Her only blip was the 9th in the Arc where she did encounter trouble. Pros - top class, Moore, consistent, beaten a length by Golden Horn at Leopardstown.  Cons - Tight spacing of late taking in the top three autumn races in Ireland, France and England.
She is better than Magician who took down The Fugue so she definitely has a chance.  You have to weigh her price with the concern of the tight spacing of the races.  She should get a good trip laying mid pack behind the rabbit and Golden Horn.  If the pace is slow she should be able to hold off the closers and make the frame with Golden Horn, but beating him is another question.

[cbhawg03]

CBHawg, Here are my thoughts on the Euros



Juvy Turf
Hit a Bomb - Seems like an odd start to a BC entrant career for Coolmore, maiden to a listed stake on all weather at Dundalk.

Birchwood - He won at 7f at Newmarket so I think getting a mile at Keeneland is within his scope. Fahey is not one just to come over for no reason.

Cymric - Agree that he has best chance with Gosden and his fine run at Longchamp in a G1.  Post is a concern as well as likely short price.

Shogun - Unlike Hit a Bomb in that after breaking his maiden they thought enought to try a G2 and a G1.  While 6th in the Lagardere not beaten too far.  Adds blinkers and could be a price worth betting


Juvy Turf Fillies

Illuminate: She is very good, Royal Ascot win followed with G2 win and near miss at G1. Distance a bit of a question as she shouldn't get one step over a mile.  Hannon family record at BC worthy concern.

Nemoralia broke maiden on all weather which could explain her decent effort in Frizette.  Not for me.

Alice Springs I would say equal company with Illuminate.  Distance not a question, win in sales race was impressive and has Moore, who is best jockey in Europe (I would say the world but don't want to start an argument).

Last Waltz: Ran well in a G3 but not as good as others above, gets Castellano who is best US turf rider IMO.


F & M Turf

Legatissimo - Top class 3 yo. Had the speed to win a Guineas and the stamina to go down by a nostril in the Oaks.  Consistent as they come and gets Moore. I think The Fugue was better and managed to lose her 2 BC runs so there is hope beating her, but she is a worthy favorite who also has won on soft ground.

Secret Gesture - Did run well at Arlington. I feel she is just shy of G1 level and ran a respectable 5th at Santa Anita last year.  Has a chance but I would want double digit price.

Miss France I think she is second best of the Euros. Form lines littered with top quality G1 winners and her race vs the boys in the Wildenstein was very good. Third off the layoff for Fabre with soft form line behind Esoterique in Rothschild last year.  Very live if price is at or above 6-1 ML.

Queen's Jewel - while I agree she appears to be a reach she does have a G1 win at the distance earlier this year in the Alary. Her French Oaks run was poor and perhaps accounted for the layoff until her Opera run. If she is totally ignored at the windows you might want to try a flyer. Karakontie won the Mile last year with similar lines at a huge price.  Her sire Pivotal is renowned for soft ground prowess so there are some things to like and Freddie Head is not one to just toss without further inspection.

Mile

Time Test - I think he is just a cut below G1 level and his price won't offset my concern.

Esoterique - I love her but was hoping for a better price. She is consistent as they come and her form lines with Solow (champion Miler) (who would be 2-5 in this) and Muhaarar (champion Sprinter) show she is a true G1 horse.  I think she has a huge chance but I want more than 4-1.

Make Believe - I respect Hersh and agree this one deserves favoritism with Esoterique. His Guineas win over New Bay on soft ground is good form and his return in the Foret was a great prep for this race. Fabre and Peslier tick more boxes for his chances.  Eerily similar schedule to Karakontie last year but won't get the same boxcar price.

Karakontie - Won at 30-1 last year but won't be that price again. Long layoff after BC win so you can forgive the 6th in the Marois vs Esoterique.  Improved in the Moulin for a third to top class 3 yo filly Ervedya.  Needs to keep improving though to take down some of these with better current form.

Impassable - Tab Miss France's run in the F&M Turf to get a read on her form. Gets first crack at a G1 but the G2 Wildenstein on Arc day is sometimes a de-facto G1.  If the 8-1 ML is indicative of her final price I would tend to pass.

Mondialiste - Won at Woodbine on his preferred soft ground as you mentioned.  His European form isn't at the level of others though.  A couple G3s along with listed stakes and a handicap suggest that he can compete with the North Americans like he did at Woodbine, but may find this bunch too much to handle.

"Winners of the Mile usually have French connections outside of Wise Dan." Your comment is a very good one.  There have been several English and Irish milers with great CVs that have had their colors lowered by French runners with lesser form.  Some would say the French have a better turn of foot coming off the tight American turns and can accelerate quicker in the shorter stretches over here.

Turf

Golden Horn - As you mentioned he should dominate. The hopes of beating him are the ground and a bounce off his Arc win.  Arc runners have fared well in the Turf, but Arc winners, granted with very few attempts, haven't. He has tactical speed and isn't a slave to pace and beat several top horses in the Arc.  Legitimate short price favorite and most likely winner of the meeting.

Found - she is top class and without a quality male middle distance horse for Coolmore found herself representing the team in the top 3 autumn races for males.  She is a top shelf 3 yo filly that would have been a great matchup for Legatissimo in the F&M Turf.  Her only blip was the 9th in the Arc where she did encounter trouble. Pros - top class, Moore, consistent, beaten a length by Golden Horn at Leopardstown.  Cons - Tight spacing of late taking in the top three autumn races in Ireland, France and England.
She is better than Magician who took down The Fugue so she definitely has a chance.  You have to weigh her price with the concern of the tight spacing of the races.  She should get a good trip laying mid pack behind the rabbit and Golden Horn.  If the pace is slow she should be able to hold off the closers and make the frame with Golden Horn, but beating him is another question.

They tried to get Hit It a Bomb in the Juvy, but he didn't get in for whatever reason.  Not sure how some horses get in, but others don't.  Think Hit It a Bomb would have had highest speed figure of any horse in the race or highest last race speed figure of any horse, but yet didn't make the field   So he goes in the Juvy Turf.  Seems that a lot of Euros think he could be really good, but how many top quality Euro horses actually come here?  Think that his chances are increased though with the soft ground, he should handle it better or as good as any other horse, but he will be starting in the grandstand.

Make Believe will get first run on all other Euros in the Mile.  Should be closer to the pace than the rest of them?

Any thoughts on Esoterique and the left-handed turns she will be making?  Her bad races are on left-handed turned races.  Think 3 of 4 were at 1 track, but seems to be more than just that one track and more like she has problems turning left? Think all at Saint-Cloud?  Would say she doesn't take to left turns or the soft turf, but she was won on soft turf before.

[Horsesrus]

The three races at Saint Cloud were the left handed races and she finished 3rd, 4th and 4th vs lesser company. All three were early in the season, two of which off layoffs. I have not read anything from her connections sounding an alarm for left handed courses.  Her form is certainly better this year and I tend to give her a pass for her left handed effort this term off the 7 month layoff.  The form lines in her last 4 races this year are unmatched by any other in the Mile.

[Horsesrus]

I have been reading today that Hannon is sounding alarm bells about the ground for Illuminate.  When making plans to come over, several of the European horses are expecting good to firm ground for their horses and this is a year they are not going to get it.  It is soft now and the track super doesn't expect it to make it to good. It should be noted that soft here is different than soft over in Europe, especially France.  Most of the Euros that have ran over a soft course over there should find Keeneland's soft to be somewhat firmer ground.

[Horsesrus]

Also, some add Lasix but the following will not add Lasix

Birchwood - Fahey
Cymric - Gosden
Illuminate - Hannon
Miss France - Fabre
Secret Gesture - Beckett
Make Believe - Fabre
Esoterique - Fabre
Time Test - Charlton
Golden Horn - Gosden

Anybody put much into these horses not using Lasix?

Quote from Secret Gesture's trainer Beckett from Sky Sports...

The trainer never uses Lasix on his US runners and feels strongly the drug should be avoided.

He went on: "It's great that Monsieur (Andre) Fabre leads the way in this area and there should be more of it."

[cbhawg03]

I have been reading today that Hannon is sounding alarm bells about the ground for Illuminate.  When making plans to come over, several of the European horses are expecting good to firm ground for their horses and this is a year they are not going to get it.  It is soft now and the track super doesn't expect it to make it to good. It should be noted that soft here is different than soft over in Europe, especially France.  Most of the Euros that have ran over a soft course over there should find Keeneland's soft to be somewhat firmer ground.

Official John Gosden turf course rating Thursday: "Soft, good to soft in places."

That is from Marcus Hersh this morning.