Breeder's Cup long shot forum

[HogFanInBryant]

I'd love to see all of us put our minds together on this for some prices.  I am not talking about mentioning a 30-1 shot you think can sneak into the top 4...but rather horses that are 10-1 or more that we REALLY feel have a shot to win a race.  Last year I was all over Texas Red but got busy and never came on here and pushed anyone hard to bet him.  I knew he was in tough, but the pace of that race screamed at me to find something talented that would make a late run...to the tune of loading up on him (not sure but I think I had $75 to win place and hit them pretty good).  I can't imagine any of us not wanting to share these kind of picks with each other.  As I said...no tri's or super's...just horses 10-1 or more that we really feel have a shot to win that particular race.  Thoughts?

[kingoftherapids]

 a couple things:

i dont know if Nyquist is beatable but he should be the shortest price of the weekend. i think that race has some serious potential. but then again, it is 2 year olds and its hard to peg them as they are still developing and figuring it out.

second thought- the distaff- i think there is potential there for something to sneak in there at a price. with beholder out i see about 6 horses that look similar. what do you think?

[cbhawg03]

a couple things:

i dont know if Nyquist is beatable but he should be the shortest price of the weekend. i think that race has some serious potential. but then again, it is 2 year olds and its hard to peg them as they are still developing and figuring it out.

second thought- the distaff- i think there is potential there for something to sneak in there at a price. with beholder out i see about 6 horses that look similar. what do you think?

Hit the ALL button in the Distaff.  Actually, I would hit All but Untapable just to save a few bucks cause I don't see how she can win.  The competition is not as bad as what she faced at Oaklawn.  She just hasn't looked good all year. 

The Juvy and Juvy F should be dominated by the West Coast horses with the sole exception being the RA filly that TAP trains.  Would love to see the Rick Porter / Hollendorfer filly win and do big things next year after what happened to Eight Belles. 

6 of the last 7 Juvy Turf winners have had their last prep in Europe. 

3 year olds are 0 for 24 in the BC F & M Sprint.  Also, don't think that a NY horse has won the race either, which excludes Cavorting. 

BC F & M Sprint, like Judy the Beauty to bounce back after her prep and win.  Looked loaded in her prep at Keeneland, but was stuck behind horses.  Will probably play Super Majesty and Fioretti underneath in some fashion.

[HogFanInBryant]

a couple things:

i dont know if Nyquist is beatable but he should be the shortest price of the weekend. i think that race has some serious potential. but then again, it is 2 year olds and its hard to peg them as they are still developing and figuring it out.

second thought- the distaff- i think there is potential there for something to sneak in there at a price. with beholder out i see about 6 horses that look similar. what do you think?

The Distaff is absolutely wide open if you ask me.  I want to wait and see the morning lines and possibly get a hint at how the track will be playing. 
I am absolutely clueless on any of the turf races...sadly have not even kept up with any turf stars this year.

[jdelo77]

Gifted master in the Juvy turf , probable Odds 6-1

[cbhawg03]

Tapiture in Dirt Mile

Peace and War in Distaff

Tepin in the Mile - Not sure about odds, but think she has best US chance to win, seems to love Keeneland

Kobe's Back in the Sprint

[Horsesrus]

Esoterique in the Mile.  She will be facing the boys but in 5 starts this year, she's won her last two races which were Group 1s with one of those against males.  Her form from two of her losses is even better finishing second to the best miler in the world Solow at Royal Ascot and second to clearly the best sprinter in Europe Muhaarar over 6 furlongs at Deauville. Fabre trains and since the field is pretty loaded we might get a decent price on her.  Last year's BC Mile winner Karakontie returns and Fabre also sends Make Believe (2 G1 wins) while Time Test comes for Roger Charlton. 

[jdelo77]

Gifted master in the Juvy turf , probable Odds 6-1

Nevermind he didn't even draw into the field ...

[HogFanInBryant]

Nevermind he didn't even draw into the field ...

I wonder why?

[HogFanInBryant]

Esoterique in the Mile.  She will be facing the boys but in 5 starts this year, she's won her last two races which were Group 1s with one of those against males.  Her form from two of her losses is even better finishing second to the best miler in the world Solow at Royal Ascot and second to clearly the best sprinter in Europe Muhaarar over 6 furlongs at Deauville. Fabre trains and since the field is pretty loaded we might get a decent price on her.  Last year's BC Mile winner Karakontie returns and Fabre also sends Make Believe (2 G1 wins) while Time Test comes for Roger Charlton. 

Ok you've got my attention lol and seem to know a LOT about the grass runners.  Please keep me posted on odds and any news for these runners.  I hate that I have such a mental block when trying to handicap grass races with a slew of horses coming in from other continents...might as well be trying to read Japanese.

[HogFanInBryant]

Tapiture in Dirt Mile

Peace and War in Distaff

Tepin in the Mile - Not sure about odds, but think she has best US chance to win, seems to love Keeneland

Kobe's Back in the Sprint

So I'm guessing you are in the group who are not going to hand over the Dirt Mile to Liam's Map?  Seems like some of the writers already have him in the freaking winner's circle!

[HogFanInBryant]

Hit the ALL button in the Distaff.  Actually, I would hit All but Untapable just to save a few bucks cause I don't see how she can win.  The competition is not as bad as what she faced at Oaklawn.  She just hasn't looked good all year. 

The Juvy and Juvy F should be dominated by the West Coast horses with the sole exception being the RA filly that TAP trains.  Would love to see the Rick Porter / Hollendorfer filly win and do big things next year after what happened to Eight Belles. 

6 of the last 7 Juvy Turf winners have had their last prep in Europe. 

3 year olds are 0 for 24 in the BC F & M Sprint.  Also, don't think that a NY horse has won the race either, which excludes Cavorting. 

BC F & M Sprint, like Judy the Beauty to bounce back after her prep and win.  Looked loaded in her prep at Keeneland, but was stuck behind horses.  Will probably play Super Majesty and Fioretti underneath in some fashion.

I saw the last race you are referring to from Judy the Beauty and she was absolutely loaded and would have ran off with it had she had some racing luck.  Give me a ballpark of what you expect her post time odds to be?

[jdelo77]

Nevermind he didn't even draw into the field ...

Who knows but I really liked him...

[cbhawg03]

Ivan Fallluvanot didn't draw into Sprint either.

[cbhawg03]

Esoterique in the Mile.  She will be facing the boys but in 5 starts this year, she's won her last two races which were Group 1s with one of those against males.  Her form from two of her losses is even better finishing second to the best miler in the world Solow at Royal Ascot and second to clearly the best sprinter in Europe Muhaarar over 6 furlongs at Deauville. Fabre trains and since the field is pretty loaded we might get a decent price on her.  Last year's BC Mile winner Karakontie returns and Fabre also sends Make Believe (2 G1 wins) while Time Test comes for Roger Charlton.

Believe first preference is the F & M Turf do might not get the odds you think.


Bawina's first preference is the F & M Turf not Esoterique

[cbhawg03]

Going to play Peace and War in the Distaff, but will definitely put some money on Salama

[cbhawg03]

So I'm guessing you are in the group who are not going to hand over the Dirt Mile to Liam's Map?  Seems like some of the writers already have him in the freaking winner's circle!

Me and Pletcher don't have a good relationship so in multi race wagers I will play and play against Liam's Map.  Pletcher always beats me whether I play his horses or play against his horses. 

Will have to see who all goes in the Dirt Mile, but leaning towards playing against because of the number of other speed horses.  I know Liam's Map will probably be quicker than all of them, but just think that he will get enough pressure for someone to nail him at the wire, just like Honor Code did.

[cbhawg03]

$1-million Juvenile Turf

Trained by Richard Fahey Birchwood has won three of his six career starts, including the Group 2 Superlative Stakes, in Europe. Birchwood hasn't visited the winner's enclosure since that early July victory but was fifth by only two lengths in a Group 2 in July and third behind top European 2-year-old Air Force Blue in his prep race for the Breeders' Cup. This will be the first Breeders' Cup runner for Richard Fahey but owner Godolphin won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf with Outstrip in 2013. Birchwood has won races on good turf in Europe so he should be fine if Keeneland gets a little rain but he has never gone past seven furlongs so the extra furlong may be worrying for him.

Cymric is coming into the Breeders' Cup off a second in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere by a short head to fellow Goldolphin horse Ultra. Other than his debut, Cymric hasn't finished worse than third in his five career starts and the mile distance of the Juvenile Turf should be perfect for him. By U.S. champion turf horse Kitten's Joy, Cymric was bred in the United States and returns home for this run. His family has had major success at the Breeders' Cup as his third dam is 1988 Breeders' Cup Distaff winner Personal Ensign, whose daughter and granddaughter both won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Cymric's half-brother Interactif is a Keeneland graded stakes winner, winning the Bourbon Stakes. Trainer John Gosden also has plenty of experience training Breeders' Cup winners with four on his record, including two Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf races.

Hit It a Bomb is taking a major step up in class in this race after making his debut at the end of September. The War Front son broke his maiden by a neck before running on the all-weather at Dundalk in Ireland and winning impressively by 4 ½ lengths, having some wondering if he'd enter the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. But the colt is only pre-entered in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and looks like he may be one of two colts in the race for trainer Aidan O'Brien, who has won the Juvenile Turf twice (2011 with Wrote and 2012 with George Washington).

$1-million Las Vegas Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

War Envoy's first preference is in the Breeders' Cup Mile, but he isn't in the main field of that race while he is in the main field of the Dirt Mile. War Envoy has never run on dirt before and his record is a little spotty on turf with his only other win coming in his debut but the colt has finished second or third five times in his 14 races. Normally, I'd be hesitant about using a horse like this but I watched the horse train over the Keeneland dirt when he was here at the beginning of the month for the Shadwell Turf Mile (a race he scratched from due to rain) and he looked really good on the dirt track, which was something Aidan O'Brien's assistant T.J. Comerford noted when talking about the horse while watching him train morning.

$1-million Juvenile Fillies Turf

By Galileo, Alice Springs is looking to give trainer Aidan O'Brien his first Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf win. Alice Springs won her debut in June by 2 ½ lengths and is Grade 1-placed with one other group placing to her name. Alice Springs is coming into the Breeders' Cup off of a four-length victory on Oct. 3 and has only finished off the board in two starts. Her sire Galileo has had two previous runners in the race with no winners.

A winner of the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot, Illuminate has a strong record coming into the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. The 2-year-old filly by Zoffany won her first three starts, including two group stakes races before finishing a close second to Lumiere in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes on Sept. 26. Illuminate is the second Breeders' Cup runner for Richard Hannon, who took over his father's training operation last year. Illuminate has never raced farther than six furlongs so she'll be going a quarter mile longer than she's ever gone before, and her sire was best at shorter distances so there is a question mark about her ability to get the mile distance.

$2-million Filly and Mare Turf

Impassable is coming into the Filly and Mare Turf on a three-race win streak, including a half-length victory over fellow Breeders' Cup entrant and European classic winner Miss France. Impassable will be making her first start in grade or group 1 company in the Breeders' Cup, when making her eighth career start. From the famed Wertheimer et Frere barn, Impassable is looking to give them their fifth Breeders' Cup victory and first in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf.

Legatissimo is coming into the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf off a victory in the Sept.12 Matron Stakes where she won a berth to this race. While not as dominant as some of the other Europeans shipping to Kentucky, Legatissimo is acknowledged as one of the best fillies running in Europe this year. She won the Quipco 1,000 Guineas Stakes (a British classic race) in May and was second by a nose in two races after that. Legatissimo is coming into the Breeders' Cup on a two-race win streak and has won races at up to 1 ¼ miles so the 1 3/16 miles of the Breeders' Cup shouldn't be a problem for her.

Secret Gesture will be looking for revenge in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf after being disqualified from the win in the Beverly D. on Arlington Million day in August. While she didn't get the win, we did learn that Secret Gesture is able to hold her own against the same Americans she'll be running into in the Breeders' Cup. Secret Gesture is coming into the Breeders' Cup fresh with no starts since that Beverly D. victory (the same move Dank made when pulling off the Beverly D./Breeders' Cup double in 2013) and only three starts this year with one of those being a Group 2 victory. Of her 15 starts, Secret Gesture has finished in the top three 12 times with wins coming at distances from one mile to 11 1/2 furlongs, including the same distance as the Filly and Mare Turf.

$2-million Mile

Looking to add to the record of female wins in the Breeders' Cup Mile, Esoterique has won two straight Group 1 victories in two different countries coming into the Breeders' Cup. Her latest win came against fillies and mares in the one-mile Sun Chariot Stakes in early October but two starts ago beat males in the Prix du Haras de Fresnay-Le-Buffard – Jacques le Marois, proving that she is just as good against open company as she is against her own class. Esoterique has won or hit the board in 10 of her 16 races with five of those on-the-board finishes coming in Group 1 company, including a second-place finish to the brilliant miler Solow at Royal Ascot in June. Esoterique's trainer Andre Fabre has won four Breeders' Cup races but his last came in 2005 with Shirocco in the Breeders' Cup Turf.

Karakontie is one of five 2014 Breeders' Cup race winners returning in 2015. The Japan-bred, French trained 4-year-old Bernstein colt went off at 30-to-1 odds in 2014 but will be much lower in 2015's edition of the race even though he doesn't seem to be in the same form this year. Making his first start of the year in August, Karakontie finished sixth behind Esoterique but ran better in September when he finished third by two lengths in another Group 1 race. However, the colt has excuses for both starts, as the first one came off a nine month layoff and both were run on tracks designated as "very soft" in France, something he hadn't faced since his debut in 2013.

Make Believe's 1 ¼-length victory in the Group 1 Prix de la Foret was a good bounce back from a last-place finish at Royal Ascot in June. That Royal Ascot race should probably have a line drawn through it, as the colt has won four races and finished second once in six starts with all of those wins coming by over a length and that second coming by just a head in his season debut. Also trained by Fabre, Make Believe looks to be coming into the Breeders' Cup in top form and will be the first starter for owner Prince A.A. Faisal in the Breeders' Cup.

$3-million Longines Turf

Found is entering this race off solid second place finish in the QIPCO Champion Stakes on Oct. 17 where she rebounded from a ninth place finish in the Arc. The filly ran into a lot of problems during the Arc and quickened admirably on ground that was a little weird that day. A better indicator of Found's talent is by the two races that sandwich that race, the Irish Champion Stakes where she finished second to probable Breeders' Cup Turf favorite Golden Horn and the aforementioned QIPCO Champion Stakes. The 3-year-old filly is coming into the Breeders' Cup with just one win this year, in a Group 3, but other than the Arc hasn't finished worse than second in seven 2015 starts, with four of those seconds coming in Group 1 races. Found is a Group 1 winner and has been facing some of the best of the best so she definitely has the class needed to do well in this race.

Perhaps the most exciting European entrant in this year's Breeders' Cup is Golden Horn. Winning his first five career starts, the colt's resume includes the Epsom Derby in June and the Coral-Eclipse in his start after that. Upset by the filly Arabian Queen in the Group 1 Juddmonte International, the loss didn't seem to faze him this fall. He won a controversial Irish Champion Stakes by a length over Found in September in his final prep for the Arc. It looked like the Arc would be a showdown between Golden Horn and two-time Arc winner Treve but the mare finished fourth while Golden Horn won the Arc by an easy two lengths over the consistent Flintshire (who is skipping this year's Breeders' Cup to go race in Japan). His connections then pointed Golden Horn for the Turf with it planned that the colt will arrive in Kentucky this weekend for next Saturday's race.

$5-million Classic

Gleneagles is following the path of his dam's [mother] full brother Giant's Causeway by taking on the Breeders' Cup Classic after a stellar 3-year-old season in Europe. Before his recent sixth-place finish, Gleneagles was on a three-race win streak (the colt had crossed the line first in eight consecutive races but was disqualified to second in France last October) comprised of all Group 1 races. While Gleneagles brings in an impressive record to the Breeders' Cup, he's only had one start since June 16 when he won the St. James's Palace Stakes. That layoff has been because of ground conditions instead of injury but it is still concerning coming into the Classic. Trainer Aidan O'Brien had had success in the Classic with the 2000 Classic runner-up Giant's Causeway and 2013 Breeders' Cup Classic third place finisher Declaration of War. Much like both those horses, Gleneagles has the pedigree to be successful on dirt even if he hasn't raced on it but his lack of racing past a mile is something that concerns me.

See more at: http://www.americasbestracing.net/en/the-latest/blogs/2015/10/22/european-entrants-you-should-know-for-breeders-cup/#sthash.T73tEleq.eT4uHRc8.dpuf

[cbhawg03]

Turf Mile: Grand Arch is 6-3-3-0 @ Keeneland

I know this is suppose to be for winners, but Grand Arch could crash exotics at a nice price.  Did win on the 3rd at Keeneland running a full second slower than Tepin though. 

10/3/15 Shadwell Mile 1st
4/15/15 Allowance 1st
10/4/14 Shadwell Mile 2nd to Wise Dan
4/6/14 Allowance 2nd
4/26/13 Allowance 1st
10/25/12 Allowance 2nd

A horse for course so to speak

[jdelo77]

I kid you not I was going to post later that I loved grand arch and I keep coming back to Gleneagles .. Why I keep coming back to Gleneagles I don't know but I do ...

[husker71]

Hit the all but one button at your own risk.  I have never done it but a certain guy on TVG does it all the time ( I think for attention vs actual smart betting) and I have seen it backfire on him several times.  I have a friend who does something so dumb    he bets pic 4s but goes all in the 1st race of the sequence every time.  He has done this for the last few months and has lost a lot (invested more than needed)  I swear his best bet could be in that 1st race but he will still hit the all button.    His response is that many days I am dead after the 1st race and he never is.  He needs an intervention

[jdelo77]

Tendency is people go heavy on the front end of pick 4 & 3s , and lighter on the back end ! I've spread and bet it heavy on both ends ! But I lose way more than I win ...

[cbhawg03]

Hit the all but one button at your own risk.  I have never done it but a certain guy on TVG does it all the time ( I think for attention vs actual smart betting) and I have seen it backfire on him several times.  I have a friend who does something so dumb    he bets pic 4s but goes all in the 1st race of the sequence every time.  He has done this for the last few months and has lost a lot (invested more than needed)  I swear his best bet could be in that 1st race but he will still hit the all button.    His response is that many days I am dead after the 1st race and he never is.  He needs an intervention

Just don't see how Untapable wins, but I will not go all but her or all for that matter.  I will play 3-6 in the Distaff, but Untapable will not be one.  Just don't see how she wins really.

I try to start a Pick 3 or Pick 4 with a single, but as long as I can find a logical single or two that I like them I'm going to play and play heavy on the other legs regardless of when the single or singles come.  Honestly don't know how you single in the Breesers Cup though outside of singling Golden Horn. That is the only single that I can see.  Not that he won't get beat but I think that's the only logical single.  Many will say AP, but he was really a different horse in the Travers and will be taking on elders for the first time.

As of now, I will probably single Golden Horn and Judy the Beauty.

[cbhawg03]

Hit the all but one button at your own risk.  I have never done it but a certain guy on TVG does it all the time ( I think for attention vs actual smart betting) and I have seen it backfire on him several times.  I have a friend who does something so dumb    he bets pic 4s but goes all in the 1st race of the sequence every time.  He has done this for the last few months and has lost a lot (invested more than needed)  I swear his best bet could be in that 1st race but he will still hit the all button.    His response is that many days I am dead after the 1st race and he never is.  He needs an intervention

Have you seen the guy in TVG that singles the 5th spot in a Super High 5?  Talk about weird, how do you handicap a single horse to finish 5th?  This game is hard enough to come up with winners, the top three and top four, can't imagine singling the 5th spot in a High 5 wager.

[cbhawg03]

ALL 8 winners on BC Dirt Mile have had a race inside of 42 days and ALL were making at least their 5th start of the year

think 6 of 8 winners have been cutting back in distance

[cbhawg03]

F & M Sprint has never had a wire-to-wire winner

Horses coming off a race in So Cal have never won the F & M Turf

Horses coming off race in Cali have gone 26-0-1-4 since 2004 in the Mile

Horses with names ending in a "Y"  are 0-32 in the BC Sprint (Runhappy)

Horses with names starting with a "P"  are 0-22 since 1985 (Palace and Private Zone)

[HogFanInBryant]

F & M Sprint has never had a wire-to-wire winner

Horses coming off a race in So Cal have never won the F & M Turf

Horses coming off race in Cali have gone 26-0-1-4 since 2004 in the Mile

Horses with names ending in a "Y"  are 0-32 in the BC Sprint (Runhappy)

Horses with names starting with a "P"  are 0-22 since 1985 (Palace and Private Zone)

Come on CB...you're reaching with the last part of this lol.

[cbhawg03]

Come on CB...you're reaching with the last part of this lol.

It is true, but from Formulator not actually from me. You won't say that though if Runhappy and Private Zone get beat.

[HogFanInBryant]

It is true, but from Formulator not actually from me. You won't say that though if Runhappy and Private Zone get beat.

Not saying it is not true, but you cannot use what letter a horse's name starts with in your handicapping.  That runs into luck or superstition.  Just saying...

[HogFanInBryant]

I've been really looking at the BC Sprint the last few days.  Masochistic is showing to be between 12-1 and 15-1 opening odds.  I am throwing out the last race as there was no explanation for that clunker.  I sincerely think he has a huge shot to win if he gets anywhere close to his best race.  No way does Ellis put him in unless if he isn't firing on all cylinders.  But I do expect to only get 12-1 at the most...and wouldn't be shocked if he goes off as low as 6-1 based on his talent.
Thoughts?

[cbhawg03]

Not saying it is not true, but you cannot use what letter a horse's name starts with in your handicapping.  That runs into luck or superstition.  Just saying...

Honestly do not put any stock into it, I was just posting more as an interesting fact than say hey, throw this into your handicapping thoughts.

[cbhawg03]

I've been really looking at the BC Sprint the last few days.  Masochistic is showing to be between 12-1 and 15-1 opening odds.  I am throwing out the last race as there was no explanation for that clunker.  I sincerely think he has a huge shot to win if he gets anywhere close to his best race.  No way does Ellis put him in unless if he isn't firing on all cylinders.  But I do expect to only get 12-1 at the most...and wouldn't be shocked if he goes off as low as 6-1 based on his talent.
Thoughts?

Would play someone coming from off the pace. If I remember right Masochistic goes to the front. With Runhappy and Private Zone in addition to all other speed, will take something special to win on the front end.

[HogFanInBryant]

Honestly do not put any stock into it, I was just posting more as an interesting fact than say hey, throw this into your handicapping thoughts.

I know...just poking at you is all lol.

[HogFanInBryant]

Would play someone coming from off the pace. If I remember right Masochistic goes to the front. With Runhappy and Private Zone in addition to all other speed, will take something special to win on the front end.

Yes he does run on the front but damn he is a lightning bolt when he has his running shoes on!  See some PP's below:
http://www.equibase.com/breederscup/2015/Saturday/10-31Race7.pdf

[cbhawg03]

Don't disagree but Private Zone is fast, and so is Runhapy who won't let anyone get in front. Think he was working the other day and went really fast cause there was some other horse in front of him and he had to catch him. Richard Migilorie has questioned the training, saying they doing to much with him. 

Your horse does pick up Mike Smith though, will be first time.

[cbhawg03]

Also, he did fire a 4F or 5F bullet work this morning

[HogFanInBryant]

Also, he did fire a 4F or 5F bullet work this morning

I watched a few of his video PP's and I love the fact that he ALWAYS (knock on wood) breaks into full stride out of the gate.  Maybe everyone will be scared to go to the lead...other than him...if I'm lucky!

[cbhawg03]

I saw the last race you are referring to from Judy the Beauty and she was absolutely loaded and would have ran off with it had she had some racing luck.  Give me a ballpark of what you expect her post time odds to be?

3-1 to 5-1

[cbhawg03]

Chad Brown is 8-5-0-0 past two years going route to sprint in graded stakes (Bobby's Kitten - Turf Sprint)

Linda Rice last 5 years, 7 days or fewer since last start: 49-10-14-10, $1.74 ROI 19-2-9-3, $1.21 ROI with those not entered for a tag (La Verdad - F & M Sprint)

Since start of 2014, Mark Casse has won 7 of 10 juvenile turf graded stakes that he has entered runners (14-7-0-1, $9.93 ROI). (Airoforce and Conquest Daddyo - Juvy Turf and Catch a Glimpse - Juvy F Turf)

Another crazy stat:  17 horses have run in the BC Juvenile with seven letters in their name (no spaces). None won. (Nyquist)

[HogFanInBryant]

I've been looking at the PP's for the BCC off and on all day.  I can't seem to stop looking at Tonalist.  Something tells me he is sitting on a big race and he has a good shot here.  Do any of you honestly think he has a shot to win the BCC...or just get part of the top 3?

[cbhawg03]

I've been looking at the PP's for the BCC off and on all day.  I can't seem to stop looking at Tonalist.  Something tells me he is sitting on a big race and he has a good shot here.  Do any of you honestly think he has a shot to win the BCC...or just get part of the top 3?

Depends on if he has blinkers. Blinkers = top 3 but can't win; without blinkers I don't touch him. Don't think he has the kick to make up ground he will need to makeup without blinkers. Blinkers keep him closer and he has a chance to hit the board.

Question is, how does Frosted run? Up front or make one run?

FYI, The Pizza Man is going to Hong Kong or Japan to race late November.

[jdelo77]

I wonder how the breeders cup will shake out pace wise ? It looks like a lot of closers on paper but , I imagine some of them will go closer to front to put pressure on AP and Beholder ! It seems every time you think there is a speed duel on paper it never shakes out that way ...

[kingoftherapids]

I wonder how the breeders cup will shake out pace wise ? It looks like a lot of closers on paper but , I imagine some of them will go closer to front to put pressure on AP and Beholder ! It seems every time you think there is a speed duel on paper it never shakes out that way ...

the thing is nobody has the speed to go with AP and beholder. and they have proven that they don't really come back to fields.  it is their race on paper

[jdelo77]

On paper yes but , there is no telling if a random horse goes right to The lead ( not named AP or beholder of course ) ..

[Horsesrus]

I've been looking at the PP's for the BCC off and on all day.  I can't seem to stop looking at Tonalist.  Something tells me he is sitting on a big race and he has a good shot here.  Do any of you honestly think he has a shot to win the BCC...or just get part of the top 3?

Steve Haskin and the sheet players sure like Tonalist.  His speed figures are very consistent and apparently his sheet figures are very good.  The group of three year olds' form hasn't been tested vs the older generation so I think Tonalist is worthy of taking a shot at 6-1 or better.  I actually like him more than Honor Code, which places me in the minority from what I've read.  I am also trying to beat Beholder.  I think she freaked in the Pacific Classic and won't run that race again outside of California. If she beat me at 3-1 so be it.  I actually might try to hit a lottery winner trifecta for a few bucks with the older set of Tonalist, Effinex and Smooth Roller just in case the three year old form does not hold up. 

[cbhawg03]

Steve Haskin and the sheet players sure like Tonalist.  His speed figures are very consistent and apparently his sheet figures are very good.  The group of three year olds' form hasn't been tested vs the older generation so I think Tonalist is worthy of taking a shot at 6-1 or better.  I actually like him more than Honor Code, which places me in the minority from what I've read.  I am also trying to beat Beholder.  I think she freaked in the Pacific Classic and won't run that race again outside of California. If she beat me at 3-1 so be it.  I actually might try to hit a lottery winner trifecta for a few bucks with the older set of Tonalist, Effinex and Smooth Roller just in case the three year old form does not hold up.

Personally would bet that Smooth Roller finishes last and I would take 5/1 on that.  The horse hasn't done anything since his October 17th work.  All he does it go out and jog then back to the barn.  I'm not sure that Rick Dutrow could get Smooth Roller to finish top 5 at this point

I'm out on Tonalist without blinkers and form shows that he won't have blinkers.  Bottom of the Tri or Super at best IMO

[cbhawg03]

Steven Crist Pick 4

Starting with Race 8 on Saturday

8:  A. 3 5 9 11 12  B. -  C. 7
9:  A.  3 7 9  B.  4  C.  10
10:  A.  1  B. -  C.  6 9 11
11:  A.  4 9  B.  10  C. -

[cbhawg03]

Anybody got any singles or key horses they will be playing?  I got two and will have a lot of tickets that single AP cause I'm just not sure who goes with him.

[jdelo77]

I've got most races narrowed down to a few horses with the ones that look wide open narrowed to five , the singles I've found are golden horn and Liam's map ( Chaulk I know ) I'm looking at a few to take a few shots , run happy I'm looking at because of how much hype he's getting and I'm looking hard at the juvy for a price ... I'll have all my capping done later tonight ...

[cbhawg03]

I've got most races narrowed down to a few horses with the ones that look wide open narrowed to five , the singles I've found are golden horn and Liam's map ( Chaulk I know ) I'm looking at a few to take a few shots , run happy I'm looking at because of how much hype he's getting and I'm looking hard at the juvy for a price ... I'll have all my capping done later tonight ...

Runhappy is incredibly fast.  I will single him and then play some bombs as well on another ticket.  Watch his maiden win from Turfway, it was crazy.   He is the 4 horse, watch him leaving the gate and in the stretch especially. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mE0jGV45Ak