As it sits right now...who wins the 2015 Breeder's Cup Classic?

[HogFanInBryant]

Here is what I don't get about Beyer figs.  A horse wins a race in February at Oaklawn at 2:27pm in a $25k claimer at a mile in 1:39.4 with no apparent trouble and say it gets a 91.  Several races later with zero rain on the track a horse runs a mile in 1:38.3 with a little traffic trouble in an $75k optional claimer and gets a 92.  I've seen this many many times and it boggles my mind.  Let's just say per the time difference that a full second at Oaklawn that day in a mile race amounts to 5 lengths...do you smell what I'm cookin' here?

[ghostzapper]

"They are the most exact way of measuring how fast a horse's race really was relative to others, and they are not as inexact as you keep saying they are" "As for the Florida horses, they ran face races.  They didn't duplicate them thereafter.  They won't be the first or last horses to do that."

They are so exact that horses won't duplicate those efforts on another track   Why did none of those Florida horses you thought were so much better than AP not duplicate their efforts?  If the BSF are so exact then why weren't those numbers duplicated?  Just like HFIB said, we all know that numbers get inflated at certain tracks and horses never duplicate those efforts again outside of that certain track that produced those high figures.  Like I said, the most exact way of measuring how fast a horse's race was really ran is only trakus.  When speed figures or any other figures is as exact as Trakus, please let me know.

Like I previously said, you have never cashed a ticket on a Cline horse have you?  You keep playing those 2/5 horses with those high speed figures since you seem to start and stop your handicapping on speed figures. 

"It is possible to project likely winning fig of a race based on contestants so, yes, it is possible to say what it will likely take to win the Classic.  And I can promise you the projected number for the Classic is higher than Beholder's last race or the projected number for the filly and mare, which is all I was trying to say.  Is it a guarantee?  No, but I've never made any guarantee.  What I have said is that Beholder ran off the charts in the Pacific Classic relative to all of her other races, it was an aberration compared to her others (particularly her last race),  so it is a reasonable projection to say she might run a race that would win the filly and mare but not the Classic."

I don't disagree that you can make a projection of what speed figure it will take to win the Classic, but I can also project the winning powerball numbers also.  Doesn't mean that I will be remotely close.  Just as the KY Derby and those Florida horses you liked, nobody has a clue who is going to duplicate their last race or whatnot. 

"I've read others who have said she's one of their "bet against" horses - oh yeah, it was you - so I'm not alone in the perception."

We have two different perceptions so don't try to lump mine in with your perception.  You have said that Beholder doesn't belong in the Classic because she will not be able to reproduce that 114 from Del Mar.  That has been your reasoning for leaving Beholder out of the Classic from the start.  Beholder has earned every right to run in the Classic given the competition that will be in the Distaff.  What does Beholder have to prove against that weak bunch?  Talent and speed figure wise she should be running in the Classic, and especially for horse racing.  You don't want Beholder in the Classic because she won't reproduce that 114.  I want the AP and Beholder's of horse racing in the Classic for horse racing and so that I get better odds on Honor Code.  I do think that Beholder is one of the best horses to take a stance against in the Classic, but that is not because she won't reproduce that 114 from Del Mar. 

Btw, if those speed figures are so exact then why didn't Beholder reproduce that figure in her last race at SA? Or why all of a sudden did she get a really high figure?  Why won't she be able to reproduce that 114?  Perhaps that "most exact way of measuring how fast a horse's race" is not really that exact?  Perhaps you see certain tracks, certain races, and certain horses get higher figures that they really should get?

Dense as I may be, I am smart enough to know that speed figures are not the most exact way of measuring how fast a horse really ran.  That title belongs to trakus and its not even close.  The margin is similar to the margin of Big Red winning the Belmont.  Its a blowout.

You really don't understand what a speed figure is, so this conversation is probably a stupid one to carry on with you.  You are dense because you think a horse's last speed figure represents exactly what he is going run in his next race, and that I bet on that premise. 

A speed figure tells you how fast the horse went around the track taking into account the true variant of the track, and translates the final time into a number that allows you to be able to compare it to other races run by other horses on different days at different tracks.  It was developed because final times became too unreliable to use in trying to determine relative abilities of horses in a race - track surfaces varied too much by day and track to make them reliable.  Frequently, speed figures would demonstrate that the horse who ran the slower time actually ran the faster race, and blew up traditional handicapping notions like "class."

A BSF doesn't tell you that the rail was golden or that the horse went four wide all of the way around the track or that the horse carried 130 pounds, but it tells you how fast he went from start to finish.  It's  up to you to apply those factors and the hundreds of other things that influence a horse in a race (big figure earned in a maiden win and trainer 0 for 50 with second time starters?  Throw him out in this race.  Horse's big number acquired while on the lead in slow fractions and today's race has a lot of front end speed?  Toss the number.) to determine if he'll run faster or slower this race.  If, as some have inquired, you want an adjusted speed figure that takes trip and weight into account, buy a Ragozin sheet.  But, whatever else you might say about BSFs, they aren't a "guess the numbers of this week's lotto" determination, and your attempt to make them that is just plain ignorance.


As for how they are used, speed figure handicappers project a final fig for the upcoming race based on horses'' most recent figs (or using the par time for the classification), and then try and find the horse they think will run the number.  That eliminates a lot of horses from consideration because a lot of trainers don't know where to place their horses. And contrary to your shallow perception of speed figure handicapping, they don't just find the highest last race Beyer and bet him.  Since most everyone has access to the numbers, the fig handicapper strives to find the horse that's sitting on the number using handicapping logic.  Most often, it is not the highest last out Beyer horse.

As for my betting, I certainly have lost my share of bets, but I'm not tearing up win tickets on 2/5 shots that lost.  However stupid you might try to make me out to be, I know better than to think betting low odds is the way to make a profit in this game.  I might not have nailed a Cline 21-1 - Arky breds aren't usually my preferred race to bet - but I did hit a 25-1 at Santa Anita Saturday (third race of an improving form cycle with the highest Beyer fig in the field 10 races back) and hit a $22,000 pick 4 Monday ($432 bet) using combinations of logical winners based on Beyer figs.  Not one of them was highest last race Beyer.  Let me know when trakkus gets you the same results.

The issue that you got away from in your quest to tell me I use voodoo statistics when I quote a BSF, was whether the risk/reward justifies running fillies/mares against the boys.  I didn't say Beholder could not win the Classic (and thus did not belong in it) because she can.  After all, she has run the fastest Beyer in the group.  Applying handicapping probabilities to her, I don't think she'll run that race - hell, percentages are that she only runs that race one out of about fifteen times, so the legitimate question to ask is why run in a race you might win when there's another you are almost certain to win (even if you don't bring your A game) and when winning the boy race does little more for your pocketbook or long term value.  I used her BSF to show why she didn't need to do anything more to prove she could go the Classic distance (which was actually a point to consider in the original discussion, and I was glad you brought it up) and to confirm what everyone else already knows - she'd be 1/5  against the girls and she'll be third or fourth choice against the boys.  The ultimate point I was trying to make is what the best public handicapper this state (or any other state) has produced told me a long time ago: the decision to run a filly/mare against the boys is rarely in the best interest of the filly/mare or even the overall business operation of the owner.  It is usually based on the owner's competitive drive or, as it is more accurately described, ego.

[ghostzapper]

Here is what I don't get about Beyer figs.  A horse wins a race in February at Oaklawn at 2:27pm in a $25k claimer at a mile in 1:39.4 with no apparent trouble and say it gets a 91.  Several races later with zero rain on the track a horse runs a mile in 1:38.3 with a little traffic trouble in an $75k optional claimer and gets a 92.  I've seen this many many times and it boggles my mind.  Let's just say per the time difference that a full second at Oaklawn that day in a mile race amounts to 5 lengths...do you smell what I'm cookin' here?

No, for several reasons. First, I would debate you that it happens many, many, many times.  Not saying it never happens, but it's not that frequent.  Second, the calculations at Oaklawn are Randy Moss' and he's the best Beyer caculator there is.  Third, the way the track is maintained between races can affect the variant.   

[ghostzapper]

Would rather hear about folks' most productive handicapping approach than hearing how Beyer speed figures mean nothin.

[HogFanInBryant]

No, for several reasons. First, I would debate you that it happens many, many, many times.  Not saying it never happens, but it's not that frequent.  Second, the calculations at Oaklawn are Randy Moss' and he's the best Beyer caculator there is.  Third, the way the track is maintained between races can affect the variant.   

I was using Oaklawn as an example...and this type of thing happens quite a bit.  Perhaps many many times was a bit of a reach but my point is how in the world can something have that type of range to it at the same track in just a few hours...especially when you have Beyer figs flirting with class levels that seem to be pretty far apart.  I do not claim to be a Beyer fig expert but I do have a great memory and go back and look at things like this quite a bit when that little silent alarm goes off in my head.  One track that jumps out at me earlier this year was NOFG.  Very all over the place with Beyer figs on same days with no clear wind or rain that I could see changing things that much.

[cbhawg03]

You really don't understand what a speed figure is, so this conversation is probably a stupid one to carry on with you.  You are dense because you think a horse's last speed figure represents exactly what he is going run in his next race, and that I bet on that premise. 

A speed figure tells you how fast the horse went around the track taking into account the true variant of the track, and translates the final time into a number that allows you to be able to compare it to other races run by other horses on different days at different tracks.  It was developed because final times became too unreliable to use in trying to determine relative abilities of horses in a race - track surfaces varied too much by day and track to make them reliable.  Frequently, speed figures would demonstrate that the horse who ran the slower time actually ran the faster race, and blew up traditional handicapping notions like "class."

A BSF doesn't tell you that the rail was golden or that the horse went four wide all of the way around the track or that the horse carried 130 pounds, but it tells you how fast he went from start to finish.  It's  up to you to apply those factors and the hundreds of other things that influence a horse in a race (big figure earned in a maiden win and trainer 0 for 50 with second time starters?  Throw him out in this race.  Horse's big number acquired while on the lead in slow fractions and today's race has a lot of front end speed?  Toss the number.) to determine if he'll run faster or slower this race.  If, as some have inquired, you want an adjusted speed figure that takes trip and weight into account, buy a Ragozin sheet.  But, whatever else you might say about BSFs, they aren't a "guess the numbers of this week's lotto" determination, and your attempt to make them that is just plain ignorance.


As for how they are used, speed figure handicappers project a final fig for the upcoming race based on horses'' most recent figs (or using the par time for the classification), and then try and find the horse they think will run the number.  That eliminates a lot of horses from consideration because a lot of trainers don't know where to place their horses. And contrary to your shallow perception of speed figure handicapping, they don't just find the highest last race Beyer and bet him.  Since most everyone has access to the numbers, the fig handicapper strives to find the horse that's sitting on the number using handicapping logic.  Most often, it is not the highest last out Beyer horse.

As for my betting, I certainly have lost my share of bets, but I'm not tearing up win tickets on 2/5 shots that lost.  However stupid you might try to make me out to be, I know better than to think betting low odds is the way to make a profit in this game.  I might not have nailed a Cline 21-1 - Arky breds aren't usually my preferred race to bet - but I did hit a 25-1 at Santa Anita Saturday (third race of an improving form cycle with the highest Beyer fig in the field 10 races back) and hit a $22,000 pick 4 Monday ($432 bet) using combinations of logical winners based on Beyer figs.  Not one of them was highest last race Beyer.  Let me know when trakkus gets you the same results.

The issue that you got away from in your quest to tell me I use voodoo statistics when I quote a BSF, was whether the risk/reward justifies running fillies/mares against the boys.  I didn't say Beholder could not win the Classic (and thus did not belong in it) because she can.  After all, she has run the fastest Beyer in the group.  Applying handicapping probabilities to her, I don't think she'll run that race - hell, percentages are that she only runs that race one out of about fifteen times, so the legitimate question to ask is why run in a race you might win when there's another you are almost certain to win (even if you don't bring your A game) and when winning the boy race does little more for your pocketbook or long term value.  I used her BSF to show why she didn't need to do anything more to prove she could go the Classic distance (which was actually a point to consider in the original discussion, and I was glad you brought it up) and to confirm what everyone else already knows - she'd be 1/5  against the girls and she'll be third or fourth choice against the boys.  The ultimate point I was trying to make is what the best public handicapper this state (or any other state) has produced told me a long time ago: the decision to run a filly/mare against the boys is rarely in the best interest of the filly/mare or even the overall business operation of the owner.  It is usually based on the owner's competitive drive or, as it is more accurately described, ego.

Look man, you keep coming with this dense and don't understand speed figures crap all you want.  I am more like Bautista doing the blat flip while your the guy that will throw at someone for doing that because they celebrated a homer off a bad pitch in a playoff game.  Those stupid unwritten rules that are only followed part of the time. 

"You are dense because you think a horse's last speed figure represents exactly what he is going run in his next race, and that I bet on that premise."

You keep saying that Beholder doesn't belong because she won't reproduce that 114 from Del Mar.  I never once said that the speed figure represents what a horse is going to run next out.  I said it WON'T!  I said that the figures are not that reliable so you can't put that much stock into one figure then the next figure a horse gets. 

In any event, we will agree to disagree.  You can point out winnings and congrats, but a $432 ticket That doesn't really seem like handicapping, that seems more like you went All/All/All/All lol.

You have made post after post about how speed figures are the most exact way of telling how fast a horse ran, but yet you keep poking holes in how exact those figures are, so how exact are they really? 

[kingoftherapids]

impressive score. its like 7 x 7 x 5 x 4. so its quite a bit of coverage but if you think there are going to be bombs then you played it right. if it was at a big track, you will would have at got the a quarter of your wager back even if you had all favorites. you wont find me playing a ticket that big, but thats because if i ever do, it will finish favorite, favorite, favorite, second favorite and i would have been Dq'ed in 2 legs with longshots.

[ghostzapper]

It was a one dollar ticket. 6x6x3x4. I don't usually play that high. but all races were wide open with some good longshots.  It worked this time. 

[cbhawg03]

Sounds like we can out the Beholdet debate to bed.  Seems all it took was her leaving Cali to miss/lose the Classic.

[cbhawg03]

I imagine that Beholder will miss the Classic, especially considering she has some of the most patient connections ever.  Perhaps she will make it though after spiking a fever.  Not giving her any medication that would interfere with her racing in the Classic.

Fwiw, the Classic will be Honor Code's last race then off to stud.

[ghostzapper]

Look man, you keep coming with this dense and don't understand speed figures crap all you want.  I am more like Bautista doing the blat flip while your the guy that will throw at someone for doing that because they celebrated a homer off a bad pitch in a playoff game.  Those stupid unwritten rules that are only followed part of the time. 

"You are dense because you think a horse's last speed figure represents exactly what he is going run in his next race, and that I bet on that premise."

You keep saying that Beholder doesn't belong because she won't reproduce that 114 from Del Mar.  I never once said that the speed figure represents what a horse is going to run next out.  I said it WON'T!  I said that the figures are not that reliable so you can't put that much stock into one figure then the next figure a horse gets. 

In any event, we will agree to disagree.  You can point out winnings and congrats, but a $432 ticket That doesn't really seem like handicapping, that seems more like you went All/All/All/All lol.

You have made post after post about how speed figures are the most exact way of telling how fast a horse ran, but yet you keep poking holes in how exact those figures are, so how exact are they really?

How do you handicap if you don't try and make a proection using pps and final times?

[cbhawg03]

How do you handicap if you don't try and make a proection using pps and final times?

I don't know if your honestly asking how I go about handicapping or making that comment cause I said something about your ticket.

As far as the ticket goes, just to much for my blood. I'm going to stay under $100 and usually lot cheaper than that.

As far as handicapping, I'm not going to really predict a final time cause you may have horses from other tracks, distances, etc that make that very difficult.

[HogFanInBryant]

Beholder is fine.  She got a great night of rest and temp is back to normal.  As it looks now all systems are a go!

[jdelo77]

AP had has final work yesterday ! He looked amazing BTW ...

[cbhawg03]

So who you got?  Odds are from the Wynn

Effinex     75/1
Frosted     9/1
Gleneagles     14/1
American Pharoah     3/2
Beholder     5/2
Hard Aces     50/1
Honor Code     6/1
Smooth Roller     15/1
Tonalist     6/1
Keen Ice     12/1

Put me down for Honor Code

[cbhawg03]

Watchmaker odds

American Pharoah    8-5
Beholder    3-1
Honor Code    6-1
Tonalist    8-1
Gleneagles    10-1
Smooth Roller    10-1
Frosted    15-1
Keen Ice    15-1
Effinex    30-1
Hard Aces    30-1

[kingoftherapids]

i dont think pharoah will be anything more than 6/5. last race. lot of $2 win tickets and after that workout the other day, the west cost will be going gangbusters.

[cbhawg03]

i dont think pharoah will be anything more than 6/5. last race. lot of $2 win tickets and after that workout the other day, the west cost will be going gangbusters.

Between the AP supporters and the Beholder supporters, should get some excellent prices on the winner if AP or Beholder don't win.

[ghostzapper]

I don't know if your honestly asking how I go about handicapping or making that comment cause I said something about your ticket.

As far as the ticket goes, just to much for my blood. I'm going to stay under $100 and usually lot cheaper than that.

As far as handicapping, I'm not going to really predict a final time cause you may have horses from other tracks, distances, etc that make that very difficult.

Handicapping is taking past pps and projecting what will hapen in the next race.  You have to have some point of reference to judge how fast a horse is to make that projection.  So what do you use?  Final times?  Lengths beaten or won by in a certain class?  Or do you just throw darts.

By the way, I'll take Honor Code at the odds posted.  AP may have it all his way on the front end so I would play him on top of HC on top of everybody in a tri saver.

[jdelo77]

I'm an AP guy but if AP and beholder are dueling down the stretch I can see tonalist or keen ice picking up the pieces ...

[ghostzapper]

Keen Ice is an improving horse so he would be an interesting play at 15-1.  What else does Honor Code have to do to get respect?

[cbhawg03]

Personally wouldn't bet Tonalist at 1,000/1.

Keen Ice owner said he will win Classic fwiw

[cbhawg03]

Keen Ice is an improving horse so he would be an interesting play at 15-1.  What else does Honor Code have to do to get respect?

Most impressive late fractions any horse has ran in a long time when he won the Met.

It wasn't the Met, but his win at Saratoga when he ran down Liam's Map.

[HogFanInBryant]

Watchmaker odds

American Pharoah    8-5
Beholder    3-1
Honor Code    6-1
Tonalist    8-1
Gleneagles    10-1
Smooth Roller    10-1
Frosted    15-1
Keen Ice    15-1
Effinex    30-1
Hard Aces    30-1

I am NOT going to place a win wager on AP...but I do think he will win the race simply because he is a rested AP.  If I can get 4-1 on Beholder I might consider a win ticket...I do think she has a big shot to win if AP doesn't have a dream trip and she gets one.

[cbhawg03]

Handicapping is taking past pps and projecting what will hapen in the next race.  You have to have some point of reference to judge how fast a horse is to make that projection.  So what do you use?  Final times?  Lengths beaten or won by in a certain class?  Or do you just throw darts.

By the way, I'll take Honor Code at the odds posted.  AP may have it all his way on the front end so I would play him on top of HC on top of everybody in a tri saver.

Only throw darts while at the track losing and intoxicated So watch out if your in the boxes. It usually goes something like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LT3U0iPhfY

Honestly, I don't look at one single thing, whether that be trips, class, speed, speed figures, pps, etc.  try to take into account the entire picture.  Look for horses that will make their own trip, will take into account class, final times compared to lengths back, troubled trips, workouts, etc.  Honestly don't take a single thing into account over another.  Will play trainer patters though.  Regardless of how you handicap a race, if you use speed figures or whatever, at times you will not get to a horse, but the trainer stats would have got you to that horse.  Such as a horse running bad consistently but then there is a move up in class or something and the trainer hits a high percentage with that move, I am more than likely going to play that horse because that is a proven pattern of that trainer. 

Really depends on what track I am playing though also. For instance at Oaklawn, I will play John McKee (if at Oaklawn) underneath in exotics regardless on how the horse looks, he just finds a way to crash the exotics at a price, going to play the Cline horses, playing some harder than others, and there are some others. 

Regardless of the track, I am going to play Ingrid Mason horses sprinting, such as her win at $30+ at Keeneland the other day. 

Personally don't think that you can take one thing into account over all other things, but can give more weight to certain things.  I'm not going to play a horse with improving BSF just because the horse seems to be improving when that horse would still have to make a large jump coupled with a large decrease by the rest of the field.  Not going to play a closer when there is no speed.  It is a difficult difficult game that can't be beat so going to take into as much information as possible. 

The one thing that will dictate everything I do is the odds.  If I'm not going to double my money then more than likely I'm out.  Just don't think the risk is worth the reward.

[ghostzapper]

Bless you.  Good luck.  Please keep betting

[cbhawg03]

Bless you.  Good luck.  Please keep betting

I'm going to keep betting.  Like I said earlier, we will agree to disagree.  There are a million different methods to handicapping.  I'm going to try to take as much info into account as possible not just looking at a form and speed figures.

[ghostzapper]

As will I.