As it sits right now...who wins the 2015 Breeder's Cup Classic?

[HogFanInBryant]

It's been kinda quiet in here so why not start talking BCC?  Below is a list of possibles...although a long list it should give us an idea of who might or might not be running.  I think a fresh American Pharoah wins the race, but he will earn it and I don't see him winning by more than a length and a half.  Thoughts?

American Pharoah 3-2

Bayern 40-1

Beholder 11-2

Candy Boy 80-1

Catch a Flight 24-1

Cigar Street 40-1

Coach Inge 45-1

Commissioner 24-1

Competitive Edge 100-1

Constitution 23-1

Dortmund 24-1

Epiphaneia 100-1

El Kabeir 100-1

Elnaawi 80-1

Effinex 80-1

Frosted 14-1

General A Rod 100-1

Gleneagles 13-1

Hard Aces 45-1

Honor Code 8-1

Hoppertunity 45-1

Itsaknockout 100-1

John F Kennedy 80-1

Keen Ice 7-1

Lea 10-1

Liams Map 14-1

Madefromlucky 55-1

Matterhorn 70-1

Mubtaahij 70-1

Ocean Knight 90-1

Prince Bishop 50-1

Prospect Park 24-1

Protonico 28-1

Race Day 85-1

Red Rifle 55-1

Ride On Curlin 90-1

Sir Fever 80-1

Tapiture 80-1

Toast of New York 28-1

Tonalist 10-1

Untapable 100-1

Transparent 45-1

War Dispatch 80-1

Wicked Strong 24-1

Social Inclusion 35-1

[ghostzapper]

I'll take Honor Code at 8-1.

[HogFanInBryant]

I'll take Honor Code at 8-1.

Surely he'll be the 3rd choice behind AP and Beholder.  I just don't think Keen Ice will take the $ that others think he will.  His Travers win was due to everything going his way against a very tired AP...probably on a track he loved and AP hated.

[ghostzapper]

I'm not sold on Beholder.  That 114 came out of nowhere.

[kingoftherapids]

my thoughts honestly on AP and everyone knows about my love and confidence i had in him during the spring and triple crown...

I think we saw the bottom of his tank in saratoga... which was one of the most impressive empty tank races ive ever seen. i think that race at monmouth while impressive was draining. he needed some time after the TC. i think if he goes straight to saratoga from the belmont i think he would have been his usual self.

that being said... beholder is doing some freaky things. you can throw out the one time she traveled east. they almost lost her to infection as she was stepped on and had a 18 inch gash to the bone and still was close to winning. i think honor code is going to need a REALLY REALLY hot pace. I think it is going to be a pace game. AP better not go with Liam's Map or it might set up for a honor code. i see AP sitting right off the lead and i see beholder rating behind them. i think the big deal for beholder is post position. if she gets stuck outside i dont like her chances. she needs a middle rail position imo.

[HogFanInBryant]

my thoughts honestly on AP and everyone knows about my love and confidence i had in him during the spring and triple crown...

I think we saw the bottom of his tank in saratoga... which was one of the most impressive empty tank races ive ever seen. i think that race at monmouth while impressive was draining. he needed some time after the TC. i think if he goes straight to saratoga from the belmont i think he would have been his usual self.

that being said... beholder is doing some freaky things. you can throw out the one time she traveled east. they almost lost her to infection as she was stepped on and had a 18 inch gash to the bone and still was close to winning. i think honor code is going to need a REALLY REALLY hot pace. I think it is going to be a pace game. AP better not go with Liam's Map or it might set up for a honor code. i see AP sitting right off the lead and i see beholder rating behind them. i think the big deal for beholder is post position. if she gets stuck outside i dont like her chances. she needs a middle rail position imo.

Liam's Map could be scary if everyone chickens out and let's him get out there all alone.  Classy horses on a lone lead are always dangerous!

[HogFanInBryant]

I'm not sold on Beholder.  That 114 came out of nowhere.

She's the real deal no doubt...question is what will she think of the racing surface at Keeneland?

[kingoftherapids]

that is the great question... will she handle the surface? i sure would prefer that they dont ship her the week of the race...


sure is a great betting race with AP slipping in the last start and everybody wondering which AP is going to show up. there is going to be a ton of beholder, ap, honor code exacta boxes. i just cant imagine liam's map holding on. and i think he will be caught by someone like beholder or AP UNLESS they try and duel with him. which then i could see honor code come swooping in.

man, its a good race. and you know some horse is going to sneak into the tail end of the tri and super.

[cbhawg03]

Honor Code

[ghostzapper]

Surface excuses always irritate me.  I know they are possible, but they are way overblown.  AP ran his race at Saratoga, unless you think he was sitting on a 115 and the "surface" or "travel" did him in.  If Beholder runs her Del Mar race she wins, even if AP runs his race.  Same with Honor Code.  AP wins the race only if he runs his lifetime best.

[cbhawg03]

Beholder and Rockfall are the two best bet against horses for the BC

[cbhawg03]

Beholder and Rockfall are the two best bet against horses running in the BC

[ghostzapper]

I would agree with Beholder.  Don't see any reason why she should run back to a 114.

[ghostzapper]

IMO, the dumbest thing an owner can do is run a filly or mare againt the boys in the Classic.  Not because she can't win, but because you gain absolutely nothing by winning.

[kingoftherapids]

so you think zenyatta should have run in the distaff both years she ran in the classic? two times in my life i have heard a roar from a grandstand like this... belmont this year and this... this is good for racing. beholder has NOTHING to prove against these mares. i dont have any problem with the champ taking on the boys. i applaud the owners for stepping up to the plate.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoyYGjCTQGk

[cbhawg03]

I think Beholder should take on the boys in order to prove anything of merit, but don't think she will win. 

Who would Beholder beat in the Distafg if she ran her race? Untapable? Don't knowWhat Steve has done but Untapable can't finish a race, she needs allowance company and then she just don't finish so I would have doubts as to whether she would win that.

I do think that Beholder is probably trying the Classic in the wrong year though for one reason.  Any other year and she could go for Classic for HOY, but not this year.  The HOY title was wrapped up when AP crossed the finish line in the Belmont.  That would be the only reason to wait u til next year and take on the boys in her last year in going for HOY.

[ghostzapper]

so you think zenyatta should have run in the distaff both years she ran in the classic? two times in my life i have heard a roar from a grandstand like this... belmont this year and this... this is good for racing. beholder has NOTHING to prove against these mares. i dont have any problem with the champ taking on the boys. i applaud the owners for stepping up to the plate.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoyYGjCTQGk

She's already beaten boys.  What does she get by winning this that she doesn't get by winning filly and mare? 

[kingoftherapids]

winning the absolute biggest race on this continent as a female... thats what she gets. she has earned her shot.

you think trev shouldnt have run in the arc? hell she won it twice... i dont understand your logic whatsoever on this.

why would they run her again in the distaff? be a walk in the park for her and it isn't like the connections need they money. they are going after legendary type stuff. if she wins the classic, it would be Ruffian, beholder, zenyatta as three greatest resumes ever by a mare. hypothetically if she were to win this year and next year (since they do plan on racing her as a 6 year old next year) she would be considered the greatest mare to ever live.

she is only horse (male or female) since 1976 to win grade 1s at ages 2,3,4,5. She will win older female this year... so she will have won the juvenile filly eclipse, 3 year old filly ecplipse, and older female eclipse.
10 grade 1 wins in 13 grade 1 starts. and one of those losses was the ogden phipps when she almost died from her infection of her gash to the bone.

[ghostzapper]

The risk/reward analysis says it isn't worth it.  She's run one race in her life that beats the boys.  The financial impact on her value as a broodmare isn't affected one whit by whether she beats the boys again.  She has proven her worth against the boys.  Common sense dictates you run her in places against her own sex that makes her appear invincible.  When you own a filly, you'll know what I'm talking about.

[kingoftherapids]

The risk/reward analysis says it isn't worth it.  She's run one race in her life that beats the boys.  The financial impact on her value as a broodmare isn't affected one whit by whether she beats the boys again.  She has proven her worth against the boys.  Common sense dictates you run her in places against her own sex that makes her appear invincible.  When you own a filly, you'll know what I'm talking about.

maybe a filly... this isn't a filly. this is a mare.

so you are sitting here saying that Trev should NOT have fun in the arc? and Zenyatta should not have run in the BC classic twice?

[cbhawg03]

Maybe I won't go with AP, Beholder or Honor Code since Liam's Map is going in the Dirt Mile.

Would prefer AP to have a target in front of him, not sure who that will be.  Will be betting against Beholder regardless.  Not sure that Honor Code will get the pace to run at without Liam's Map.

[cbhawg03]

Here is a better list of probables

American Pharoah    
Beholder
Honor Code
Tonalist    
Gleneagles    
Smooth Roller
Keen Ice
Frosted
Effinex
Hard Aces
Hoppertunity
Wicked Strong

[ghostzapper]

maybe a filly... this isn't a filly. this is a mare.

so you are sitting here saying that Trev should NOT have fun in the arc? and Zenyatta should not have run in the BC classic twice?

Good correction.  :] 

I am not saying a filly/mare should never run against the boys.  It shouldn't happen very often.  Zenyatta ran against the boys twice didn't she - both Breeder's Cup Classics?  Those races were a year apart.  This is Beholder's second try in her last three races.  Plus, what did Zenyatta's her owners get by winning one of those races that they would not have received by winning the Ladies Classic three years running?  It seems to me that the motivation any owner has is his/her ego - I want to beat the boys because it seals my horse's place in history.  I don't think beating the boys does anything more for their bankroll or increases the broodmare value than dominating your division does.  Usually beating the boys is significantly more difficult than beating the girls so, if you are gong to take that risk, do it in a situation where you know you can win.   

[kingoftherapids]

she beat like 7 grade 1 winning males in the pacific classic and a BC classic winner and she did it in a ridiculously impressive fashion. what else could she have done to show she can compete. i just dont understand why you think they should go backwards after the ease of which she just beat some very good male horses. #onward

[cbhawg03]

she beat like 7 grade 1 winning males in the pacific classic and a BC classic winner and she did it in a ridiculously impressive fashion. what else could she have done to show she can compete. i just dont understand why you think they should go backwards after the ease of which she just beat some very good male horses. #onward

I let you guys figure it out, but we got to pump the brakes and pull the emergency break on "just beat some very good male horses."  Tell me exactly who was good or is now good that she beat?  Hoppertunity hasn't won since? Bayern has been crap all of 2015. Who else was in the race?

Don't disagree that she won in style, but that was the weakest Grade 1 I have ever seen. Oaklawn runs Arky bred races with more class than that pitiful race this year. Maybe not but you get my point.

Put me in the camp of running Beholder in the Classic though, better odds on everybody else with her in the race.

[ghostzapper]

she beat like 7 grade 1 winning males in the pacific classic and a BC classic winner and she did it in a ridiculously impressive fashion. what else could she have done to show she can compete. i just dont understand why you think they should go backwards after the ease of which she just beat some very good male horses. #onward

She didn't "move forward" in her last race.  Not much reason to think she's going back to the 114 she ran at Del Mar, which she's going to have to do to win Classic.  She doesn't have to run that to win F&M, and winning that race means as much to her legacy and broodmare value  as Classic win would.

[HogFanInBryant]

Debate all you want about Beholder...but the short and sweet of it is that she deserves a chance to run in the BCC just like Z did.  I don't see her throwing in a clunker...if she doesn't win it won't be because she doesn't belong.  I think she will run a big race and will have her # show up in the trifecta...but that's just me.

[ghostzapper]

No one is saying she can't win the race.  Question is what is best race for her to run.  Which one(s) do you think give her highest probability of winning?  Which one(s) increase her broodmare value the most?  Those should be deciding factors. 

[cbhawg03]

Winning at 10 furlongs probably gives her the most broodmare value, there has always been questions of stamina due to Henny Hughes.  If she can prove she can go that distance then that increases her value cause people will think she can pass along some stamina until she proves that she can't.

[jdelo77]

Beholder and Rockfall are the two best bet against horses running in the BC

Rockfall suffered a fatal training accident this morning and was put down ...

[ghostzapper]

Winning at 10 furlongs probably gives her the most broodmare value, there has always been questions of stamina due to Henny Hughes.  If she can prove she can go that distance then that increases her value cause people will think she can pass along some stamina until she proves that she can't.

She's already done that, running best race of her career.  I wouldn't tempt fate with a race that might re-instill those doubts. 

[ghostzapper]

Rockfall suffered a fatal training accident this morning and was put down ...

Damn.  Sorry to hear that about any horse.  Owners now experiencing the lowest of the lows in the game.

[cbhawg03]

She's already done that, running best race of her career.  I wouldn't tempt fate with a race that might re-instill those doubts.

That was a super easy race though.  Some point, I think, you have to quit just looking at BSF and just take it for what it is. You thought those Florida horses were good because of BSF but that didn't turn out well did it?

[ghostzapper]

Not sure what you mean by that. 

[cbhawg03]

Not sure what you mean by that.

You keep saying that Beholder ran a 114 @ Del Mar then backed up in her latest try at SA.  That is part of your reasoning for saying that she shouldn't run in the BCC.  At some point, you have to quit just looking at BSF or whatever figures you are looking at.  You will see some big horse come to Oaklawn and run in a stakes race and get a high BSF, but then a week later in a  $100k stakes race a horse will run the same time and get something like 10-15 points lower.  The figures are inexact so say the least.  In Beholder's case, the race at Del Mar was ran faster earlier, I'm guessing, than the race at SA.  I'm also sure that she was walking at the end of the race at SA also, even though she was geared down at Del Mar as well, not as much as the SA race and the factor that the race probably wasn't ran as fast early, thus you get a lower BSF.

You kept saying those Florida, particularly GP, horses could give AP a run because of their high BSF.  That never panned out did it? You can't keep looking at BSF and determining who is going to win or where to run your horse.  We can sit here and say that it will take a 110 to win the Classic, but we don't really know what it will take to win the BCC.  What happens if they run really slow for a mile then sprint for the wire?  You are probably going to get a lower BSF than you would guess it would take, just like the KY Derby this year.  You can bring BSF into the equation, but you cannot simply rely upon that to determine that a horse should or should not be in a particular race. 

This is horse racing, anything can happen.  I would take it that you have never cashed a winner on a Cline horse at Oaklawn have you?  I would guess not because their horses run like crap, throwing out 0 BSF and then winning at 20-1+ odds.  You cannot simply rely upon BSF because they add or subtract points for different variants, which cannot be an exact science.  The only exact science you will get in horse racing comes from trakus. 

[ghostzapper]

You haven't got a clue what a speed figure is, do you?

[cbhawg03]

You haven't got a clue what a speed figure is, do you?

About the same clue that you have in using them obviously.  You kept saying this horse and that horse can do this or that or won't do this or that just off of speed figures.

[cbhawg03]

She didn't "move forward" in her last race.  Not much reason to think she's going back to the 114 she ran at Del Mar, which she's going to have to do to win Classic.  She doesn't have to run that to win F&M, and winning that race means as much to her legacy and broodmare value  as Classic win would.

My pint illustrated to perfection here. You are saying she won't go back to the 114. You have no clue what it will take to win the Classic. How all those Florida horses you liked doing backing up those high GP figures?

Those figures can paint a picture but remain inexact and you see really high figures for certain tracks. You keep basing everything on figures, doesn't work.

[ghostzapper]

My pint illustrated to perfection here. You are saying she won't go back to the 114. You have no clue what it will take to win the Classic. How all those Florida horses you liked doing backing up those high GP figures?

Those figures can paint a picture but remain inexact and you see really high figures for certain tracks. You keep basing everything on figures, doesn't work.

You're revealing your ignorance of speed figures, what they are and how they are used. They are the most exact way of measuring how fast a horse's race really was relative to others, and they are not as inexact as you keep saying they are (I'm guessing you don't have a clue about the physics they are based on or how they are calculated)   They are beginning point of any race analysis and then the general theories of handicapping take over.  It is possible to project likely winning fig of a race based on contestants so, yes, it is possible to say what it will likely take to win the Classic.  And I can promise you the projected number for the Classic is higher than Beholder's last race or the projected number for the filly and mare, which is all I was trying to say.  Is it a guarantee?  No, but I've never made any guarantee.  What I have said is that Beholder ran off the charts in the Pacific Classic relative to all of her other races, it was an aberration compared to her others (particularly her last race),  so it is a reasonable projection to say she might run a race that would win the filly and mare but not the Classic.   I've read others who have said she's one of their "bet against" horses - oh yeah, it was you - so I'm not alone in the perception. 

As for the Florida horses, they ran face races.  They didn't duplicate them thereafter.  They won't be the first or last horses to do that.   

[HogFanInBryant]

With all due respect...does everyone agree that the figures at Gulfstream were greatly exaggerated coming up to the Triple Crown races?  Beyer speed figs are very accurate and consistent but even Andy will come back and say after the fact that they messed up on how some of the surfaces have played in relation to the Beyer figure he gives.  Just my 2 cents...and then you've got the whole class arguement which makes my brain hurt.

[cbhawg03]

With all due respect...does everyone agree that the figures at Gulfstream were greatly exaggerated coming up to the Triple Crown races?  Beyer speed figs are very accurate and consistent but even Andy will come back and say after the fact that they messed up on how some of the surfaces have played in relation to the Beyer figure he gives.  Just my 2 cents...and then you've got the whole class arguement which makes my brain hurt.

HFIB: You can't bring common sense to this argument man.

[cbhawg03]

You're revealing your ignorance of speed figures, what they are and how they are used. They are the most exact way of measuring how fast a horse's race really was relative to others, and they are not as inexact as you keep saying they are (I'm guessing you don't have a clue about the physics they are based on or how they are calculated)   They are beginning point of any race analysis and then the general theories of handicapping take over.  It is possible to project likely winning fig of a race based on contestants so, yes, it is possible to say what it will likely take to win the Classic.  And I can promise you the projected number for the Classic is higher than Beholder's last race or the projected number for the filly and mare, which is all I was trying to say.  Is it a guarantee?  No, but I've never made any guarantee.  What I have said is that Beholder ran off the charts in the Pacific Classic relative to all of her other races, it was an aberration compared to her others (particularly her last race),  so it is a reasonable projection to say she might run a race that would win the filly and mare but not the Classic.   I've read others who have said she's one of their "bet against" horses - oh yeah, it was you - so I'm not alone in the perception. 

As for the Florida horses, they ran face races.  They didn't duplicate them thereafter.  They won't be the first or last horses to do that.

My ignorance was just proven in your entire post. You made every point for me man. You can project a winning BSF, but that doesn't mean crap. Nobody has a clue what the figure will be. You can't say that she won't win or shouldn't be in the race because of a BSF projection or whether she will duplicate a figure.

Those Florida horses won't be the first or last, but yet you say Beholder shouldn't run cause she won't reproduce that 114. You have no clue what it will take to actually win

[ghostzapper]

You are just dense. 

[cbhawg03]

You're revealing your ignorance of speed figures, what they are and how they are used. They are the most exact way of measuring how fast a horse's race really was relative to others, and they are not as inexact as you keep saying they are (I'm guessing you don't have a clue about the physics they are based on or how they are calculated)   They are beginning point of any race analysis and then the general theories of handicapping take over.  It is possible to project likely winning fig of a race based on contestants so, yes, it is possible to say what it will likely take to win the Classic.  And I can promise you the projected number for the Classic is higher than Beholder's last race or the projected number for the filly and mare, which is all I was trying to say.  Is it a guarantee?  No, but I've never made any guarantee.  What I have said is that Beholder ran off the charts in the Pacific Classic relative to all of her other races, it was an aberration compared to her others (particularly her last race),  so it is a reasonable projection to say she might run a race that would win the filly and mare but not the Classic.   I've read others who have said she's one of their "bet against" horses - oh yeah, it was you - so I'm not alone in the perception. 

As for the Florida horses, they ran face races.  They didn't duplicate them thereafter.  They won't be the first or last horses to do that.

"They are the most exact way of measuring how fast a horse's race really was relative to others, and they are not as inexact as you keep saying they are" "As for the Florida horses, they ran face races.  They didn't duplicate them thereafter.  They won't be the first or last horses to do that."

They are so exact that horses won't duplicate those efforts on another track   Why did none of those Florida horses you thought were so much better than AP not duplicate their efforts?  If the BSF are so exact then why weren't those numbers duplicated?  Just like HFIB said, we all know that numbers get inflated at certain tracks and horses never duplicate those efforts again outside of that certain track that produced those high figures.  Like I said, the most exact way of measuring how fast a horse's race was really ran is only trakus.  When speed figures or any other figures is as exact as Trakus, please let me know.

Like I previously said, you have never cashed a ticket on a Cline horse have you?  You keep playing those 2/5 horses with those high speed figures since you seem to start and stop your handicapping on speed figures. 

"It is possible to project likely winning fig of a race based on contestants so, yes, it is possible to say what it will likely take to win the Classic.  And I can promise you the projected number for the Classic is higher than Beholder's last race or the projected number for the filly and mare, which is all I was trying to say.  Is it a guarantee?  No, but I've never made any guarantee.  What I have said is that Beholder ran off the charts in the Pacific Classic relative to all of her other races, it was an aberration compared to her others (particularly her last race),  so it is a reasonable projection to say she might run a race that would win the filly and mare but not the Classic."

I don't disagree that you can make a projection of what speed figure it will take to win the Classic, but I can also project the winning powerball numbers also.  Doesn't mean that I will be remotely close.  Just as the KY Derby and those Florida horses you liked, nobody has a clue who is going to duplicate their last race or whatnot. 

"I've read others who have said she's one of their "bet against" horses - oh yeah, it was you - so I'm not alone in the perception."

We have two different perceptions so don't try to lump mine in with your perception.  You have said that Beholder doesn't belong in the Classic because she will not be able to reproduce that 114 from Del Mar.  That has been your reasoning for leaving Beholder out of the Classic from the start.  Beholder has earned every right to run in the Classic given the competition that will be in the Distaff.  What does Beholder have to prove against that weak bunch?  Talent and speed figure wise she should be running in the Classic, and especially for horse racing.  You don't want Beholder in the Classic because she won't reproduce that 114.  I want the AP and Beholder's of horse racing in the Classic for horse racing and so that I get better odds on Honor Code.  I do think that Beholder is one of the best horses to take a stance against in the Classic, but that is not because she won't reproduce that 114 from Del Mar. 

Btw, if those speed figures are so exact then why didn't Beholder reproduce that figure in her last race at SA? Or why all of a sudden did she get a really high figure?  Why won't she be able to reproduce that 114?  Perhaps that "most exact way of measuring how fast a horse's race" is not really that exact?  Perhaps you see certain tracks, certain races, and certain horses get higher figures that they really should get?

Dense as I may be, I am smart enough to know that speed figures are not the most exact way of measuring how fast a horse really ran.  That title belongs to trakus and its not even close.  The margin is similar to the margin of Big Red winning the Belmont.  Its a blowout.

[kingoftherapids]

I will rant on BSF for 1 second. a horse is NEVER given a higher beyer if they finished behind a horse by a length. I have a huge problem with this... pace, trouble, weight being carried. You have a ten pound apprentice on a winner by a length over a mile and a 3/4... the second place horse stumbles, gets boxed in at the top of the stretch, the rider loses his whip, and the winner is a 10 pound apprentice. the second place horse should get the higher beyer right? wrong, Beyer doesnt take that any of these important things into account.

Personally, i think the best possible handicapping figures that you can do are your own with video. and it doesn't end at the wire on race day... i always take notes on gallop outs as well as i use my workout notes heavily.

Beyer speed figures should not be used to make handicapping decisions. to me they are for the horse player who doesn't get into it every day like i do.

[jdelo77]

I will rant on BSF for 1 second. a horse is NEVER given a higher beyer if they finished behind a horse by a length. I have a huge problem with this... pace, trouble, weight being carried. You have a ten pound apprentice on a winner by a length over a mile and a 3/4... the second place horse stumbles, gets boxed in at the top of the stretch, the rider loses his whip, and the winner is a 10 pound apprentice. the second place horse should get the higher beyer right? wrong, Beyer doesnt take that any of these important things into account.

Personally, i think the best possible handicapping figures that you can do are your own with video. and it doesn't end at the wire on race day... i always take notes on gallop outs as well as i use my workout notes heavily.

Beyer speed figures should not be used to make handicapping decisions. to me they are for the horse player who doesn't get into it every day like i do.

The last part of what you said is dead on ! You bet with only speed figures and you will be broke quick ! But on the other hand they can be used in tandem with other factors to help you handicap ...just my take

[cbhawg03]

I will rant on BSF for 1 second. a horse is NEVER given a higher beyer if they finished behind a horse by a length. I have a huge problem with this... pace, trouble, weight being carried. You have a ten pound apprentice on a winner by a length over a mile and a 3/4... the second place horse stumbles, gets boxed in at the top of the stretch, the rider loses his whip, and the winner is a 10 pound apprentice. the second place horse should get the higher beyer right? wrong, Beyer doesnt take that any of these important things into account.

Personally, i think the best possible handicapping figures that you can do are your own with video. and it doesn't end at the wire on race day... i always take notes on gallop outs as well as i use my workout notes heavily.

Beyer speed figures should not be used to make handicapping decisions. to me they are for the horse player who doesn't get into it every day like i do.

KOTR, you and HFIB cannot bring logic into this. Logic just doesn't equate into the argument.  These figures are the most exact way of determining who ran faster, taking that much information into account couldn't be possible.

[kingoftherapids]

KOTR, you and HFIB cannot bring logic into this. Logic just doesn't equate into the argument.  These figures are the most exact way of determining who ran faster, taking that much information into account couldn't be possible.

Which is exactly why i dont look at speed figures.

[cbhawg03]

Which is exactly why i dont look at speed figures.

Do they take into account a jockey stealing another jockey's whip? Do they take into account you losing your whip to theft during the stretch run?  Seriously, that was a really weird situation.

[cbhawg03]

Btw, how about Gleneagles scratching over in England?  Last I read, if he didn't run in England than would be running in the Classic.  O'Brien almost pulled off the win last year.