Beholder

[jdelo77]

Did you see that move around turn ... Wow

[HogFanInBryant]

Did you see that move around turn ... Wow

I'm gonna say it...may not be a popular statement...but I'm gonna say it...she would have beat AP today!  No doubt about it!

[HogFanInBryant]

I'm not saying she is a better racehorse...just that she would not have lost to anyone today in that race on that track at that distance...including AP.

[jdelo77]

She looked amazing , it's the best performance I've seen by a horse this year not named American Pharoah .. 

[Iwastherein1969]

How does one say, "PRISONERS OF THE MOMENT" ?    You guys see one performance and you go ape.  We'll see the bitch at the Breeders Cup and all she'll see is AP's iddy biddy tail, and only if she has great vision.

[Iwastherein1969]

How does one say, "the perfect trip" in Spanish....sitting a clear 3rd behind two dualing leaders...yeah, she ran out of the screen, a very, very nice race against a bunch of older handicap horses who are terrible. When a filly is the favorite in her first outing against males, well, that pretty much speaks to the lack of quality among the horses and geldings in the handicap division.  AP will dust her.

[husker71]

All I am saying is visually that was just like Arazi.  This is the beauty of horse racing   we argue and there is a good chance it will be settled on the track   

[jdelo77]

All I am saying is visually that was just like Arazi.  This is the beauty of horse racing   we argue and there is a good chance it will be settled on the track   

Exactly ! It wil be awesome to see her run against AP in the breeders cup..

[jdelo77]

How does one say, "the perfect trip" in Spanish....sitting a clear 3rd behind two dualing leaders...yeah, she ran out of the screen, a very, very nice race against a bunch of older handicap horses who are terrible. When a filly is the favorite in her first outing against males, well, that pretty much speaks to the lack of quality among the horses and geldings in the handicap division.  AP will dust her.

I don't think it was that bad of a group,I mean we all knew who would go to front , but my main thing is the move she she made around the turn was visually impressive ! She was 5 lengths ahead in the blink of an eye .

[HogFanInBryant]

How does one say, "PRISONERS OF THE MOMENT" ?    You guys see one performance and you go ape.  We'll see the bitch at the Breeders Cup and all she'll see is AP's iddy biddy tail, and only if she has great vision.

So you can honestly say that AP runs off and leaves her if he is in the race yesterday?  If you do say that you are not being logical...she was absolutely perfect.  My add to this is...that mare, on that racetrack, on that day, at that distance, in that race...nobody was running with her yesterday! 

[HogFanInBryant]

How does one say, "the perfect trip" in Spanish....sitting a clear 3rd behind two dualing leaders...yeah, she ran out of the screen, a very, very nice race against a bunch of older handicap horses who are terrible. When a filly is the favorite in her first outing against males, well, that pretty much speaks to the lack of quality among the horses and geldings in the handicap division.  AP will dust her.

She did not beat terrible horses yesterday...multiple grade 1 winners in that race...even if a few might be off form a bit.

[Iwastherein1969]

So you can honestly say that AP runs off and leaves her if he is in the race yesterday?  If you do say that you are not being logical...she was absolutely perfect.  My add to this is...that mare, on that racetrack, on that day, at that distance, in that race...nobody was running with her yesterday!

I didn't say that....I think I was referencing the Breeders Cup and you have to remember, Del Mar is kind of quirky, sorta like Saratoga only worse, horses either love the surface and perform better than they ever have or they don't like it and under perform...so I wouldn't be so quick to think this was not an anomaly because she apparently loves that track...but that is an angle that remains to be seen

[Iwastherein1969]

She did not beat terrible horses yesterday...multiple grade 1 winners in that race...even if a few might be off form a bit.

I, personally cannot think of a weaker year for older handicap males....if you can, and I'm being serious, point that year and the horses out to me

[jdelo77]

Hard aces was coming off a win , hoppertunity looked good on paper , the Clement horse was the first one I came to , but honestly bayern was an automatic toss , hell his form is gone ... But overall there was no shared belief or real stand out ...not the worst group of older horses but certainly not the best either ...

[HogFanInBryant]

I didn't say that....I think I was referencing the Breeders Cup and you have to remember, Del Mar is kind of quirky, sorta like Saratoga only worse, horses either love the surface and perform better than they ever have or they don't like it and under perform...so I wouldn't be so quick to think this was not an anomaly because she apparently loves that track...but that is an angle that remains to be seen

I agree with this on the dirt track prior to Del Mar going to polytrack...but this new surface seems like it is super fair to me unless you have the occasional day where they don't put water in it and everything goes wire to wire.

[HogFanInBryant]

I, personally cannot think of a weaker year for older handicap males....if you can, and I'm being serious, point that year and the horses out to me

To be honest my history on the older horses isn't what it used to be honestly...the only year that jumps out was whatever year Traditionally won the Oaklawn Handicap.  I think that was like the weakest of the weak since I've been following the sport.

[Iwastherein1969]

To be honest my history on the older horses isn't what it used to be honestly...the only year that jumps out was whatever year Traditionally won the Oaklawn Handicap.  I think that was like the weakest of the weak since I've been following the sport.

agreed

[kingoftherapids]

She ran one hell of a race.  I'm a big fan of hers but she doesn't beat AP in the BC even if she runs that race again.  This American Pharoah is a freak of nature.  After that performance yesterday, I do slide her up over rachel in the last decade filly rankings.   Almost breaking a track record is really an impressive feat at ole del mar. 

[cbhawg03]

She ran one hell of a race.  I'm a big fan of hers but she doesn't beat AP in the BC even if she runs that race again.  This American Pharoah is a freak of nature.  After that performance yesterday, I do slide her up over rachel in the last decade filly rankings.   Almost breaking a track record is really an impressive feat at ole del mar.

Over Rachel How? I know that Rachel's feats basically came over a one year period, but I don't think that Beholder has done anything to say that she is better than Rachel.  For one, Beholder couldn't even win the KY Oaks, whereas Rachel might have been the favorite to win the KY Derby.  The track record is a cool deal, but honestly, who did she beat?  That was the weakest Grade I field you might ever see.  Rachel beat the boys on three different occasions, the Preakness, Haskell and Woodward against older horses as a 3 year old.  What has Beholder done that puts her over that?  Beholder couldn't even run in those three races in the same year, if she had the ability.  She runs 2-4 times a year and is gone for 8 months even since her 3 year old year.

Very impressive turn of foot, but nothing more than that.  That was a really weak group.  You want to run against good older horses, you better ship to the east coast because there is not a good one out west and it ain't even close.  I don't know what Baffert has done to Bayern, but that horse is done.  Hoppertunity, as well, he couldn't even pick up the pieces to hit the board.  Clement sent his horse out west to avoid to the big guys for a reason.  There shouldn't be a horse in the Classic from out west other than AP to go off under 20/1 in the Classic, if one even shows up. 

Not to high-jack the thread, but with AP going in the Travers there is this little tidbit, Baffert at Saratoga in races at 1 mile or longer is 2-30 and in stakes races at Saratoga since 2009 he is 2-34.  Not saying that AP will lose, but will be betting against.  Texas Red or Frosted will be the pick.  The injury of Japan probably hurts them two from a pace standpoint, but I will still play them to spoil AP's day.

[kingoftherapids]

you keep playing your beat ap tactics.

[kingoftherapids]

I will tell you exactly why i put her over rachel... she is about to win mare of the year... so she will have won 2 year old filly, 3 year old filly, and older mare awards... she beat five grade 1 winners on saturday and did it with a turn of foot that made a them all look like they were standing still. my favorite part is people saying a henny hughes can't go that far. she is smashing that theory. along with all of those theories that AP couldnt get the belmont distance.... oh wait.

[cbhawg03]

you keep playing your beat ap tactics.

I am a gambler at heart.  I think you got to try to beat him or just watch the race is really my point.  I don't know that you can really bet him and make any money.  Granted, you may not lose any money, but you probably won't make much either.  I will admit, I was playing Del Mar the other day and which ever Louisiana track is running, the superfecta on a race paid over $2,200 with a 2/5 horse winning for a $.10 bet.   

[cbhawg03]

I will tell you exactly why i put her over rachel... she is about to win mare of the year... so she will have won 2 year old filly, 3 year old filly, and older mare awards... she beat five grade 1 winners on saturday and did it with a turn of foot that made a them all look like they were standing still. my favorite part is people saying a henny hughes can't go that far. she is smashing that theory. along with all of those theories that AP couldnt get the belmont distance.... oh wait.

Breeding is always something that can be disproven.  i remember when Smarty won the Southwest, I think it was Simon or some other talking head on TVG that said he doesn't even look like he will want to go the extra 1/16th for the Rebel.  Don't think that you can say she goes over Rachel based upon her breeding and winning races at distances when her breeding says she can't/won't, it happens all the time.   

Again, I think you have to take into account who Beholder beat and has beaten, and where she won her races.  Only 2 races outside CA and that was a 2nd in the Oaks and a 4th at Belmont, which she disappeared for 3 months afterwards.  She beat males 1 time and that was the weakest group ever.  We could have got some of us on here combined to run a relay race and won the Pacific Classic on foot against that group she beat.  I don't care what someone one, who was in form?  Good form?  I will keep waiting for that answer. 

Who else would get older mare honors at this point?  Cavorting?  Is Cavorting even an older horse?  Who beat Untapable in NY?  Maybe that horse?  The Distaff division had rained supreme for a couple of years, but it has dropped off significantly.  So Beholder's win in the PC pretty much makes her the clear winner regardless of what happens the rest of the year.  I know you got to beat who is put in front of you, but she hasn't been beating much while staying out west to run primarily against 3-5 horse fields.  She has beat fields of 7, 5, 4 and 4 in her last 4 races prior to the PC.  And we don't know one horse that she beat........

[HawgWild]

Not to high-jack the thread, but with AP going in the Travers there is this little tidbit, Baffert at Saratoga in races at 1 mile or longer is 2-30 and in stakes races at Saratoga since 2009 he is 2-34.  Not saying that AP will lose, but will be betting against.  Texas Red or Frosted will be the pick.  The injury of Japan probably hurts them two from a pace standpoint, but I will still play them to spoil AP's day.

There is a reason they call Saratoga "The graveyard of champions."

[HogFanInBryant]

There is a reason they call Saratoga "The graveyard of champions."

I don't think AP will lose but per a previous mention...Saratoga's dirt track is a true "horse for the course" surface.  Most horses either peak on it or throw in clunkers.  I read about the surface and it has something to do with how far the clay is under the track and the lack of sand in it versus say Belmont which has a ton of sand in it.

[HogFanInBryant]

I don't think AP will lose but per a previous mention...Saratoga's dirt track is a true "horse for the course" surface.  Most horses either peak on it or throw in clunkers.  I read about the surface and it has something to do with how far the clay is under the track and the lack of sand in it versus say Belmont which has a ton of sand in it.

What I meant was the previous mention was that DelMar had the tricky surface...which was true prior to the installation of polytrack and this new dirt surface they have.  The dirt surface at DelMar is almost identical to what they have now at Santa Anita and I heard that straight from Matt C on TVG.

[kingoftherapids]

she beat the  reigning BC classic winner by over 20 lengths and went by him like he was jogging. call that field weak? this is the same thing that happened with AP.... people talk about the field they are facing... what about the great performances... we have already gone thru this like 3 times this year with AP. Its like watching a guy throw a perfect game against the Miami Marlins... the achievement and greatness  is recognized. you dont hear the espn announcers saying, "anyone could throw a perfect game against the marlins." or "what the pitcher did is not a big of an accomplishment because of the batters being terrible"

what that mare did against older accomplished males was nothing less than spectacular.

[HogFanInBryant]

she beat the  reigning BC classic winner by over 20 lengths and went by him like he was jogging. call that field weak? this is the same thing that happened with AP.... people talk about the field they are facing... what about the great performances... we have already gone thru this like 3 times this year with AP. Its like watching a guy throw a perfect game against the Miami Marlins... the achievement and greatness  is recognized. you dont hear the espn announcers saying, "anyone could throw a perfect game against the marlins." or "what the pitcher did is not a big of an accomplishment because of the batters being terrible"

what that mare did against older accomplished males was nothing less than spectacular.

Very well said...Beholder is turning into an absolute monster.  Not that AP isn't one too...but she is a force to be dealt with.  She relished the distance which is bad news for everyone other than her...

[cbhawg03]

she beat the  reigning BC classic winner by over 20 lengths and went by him like he was jogging. call that field weak? this is the same thing that happened with AP.... people talk about the field they are facing... what about the great performances... we have already gone thru this like 3 times this year with AP. Its like watching a guy throw a perfect game against the Miami Marlins... the achievement and greatness  is recognized. you dont hear the espn announcers saying, "anyone could throw a perfect game against the marlins." or "what the pitcher did is not a big of an accomplishment because of the batters being terrible"

what that mare did against older accomplished males was nothing less than spectacular.

Bayern is finished and we both know that. Hasn't been the same since the Classic for whatever reason. The fields AP has beat have been 10 times better than that group she beat.  Like I said earlier, me, u and the others that have posted in this topic could have ran a relay race and won that race.

[FATHAWG08]

She did not beat terrible horses yesterday...multiple grade 1 winners in that race...even if a few might be off form a bit.

You are correct Bayern& Hopportunity  to name a few are on a down cycle as far as their form,from  earlier this year. Beholder had the perfect trip to run at Sunady. What I was stunned and very happy about was she paid $6.00. Bet of the week. Beholder is a great mare at 5. Five year old horses if handled properly are at their peak physically & mentally. Beholder has it figured out. Unfortunately for her AP figured it out at 3. AP will not be denied in the BC

[Iwastherein1969]

this is silly, just silly...we have a great Triple Crown winner and the 'doubting Thomases' are forever laying in the weeds trying to be the one's to say "I told you guys, I told you the mare was better than American Pharoah"...then after the race is run they suddenly become reflective and talk about how she ran a great race but, Blah Blah Blah....Beholder is NOT American Pharoah, not even close...she won't run in the Breeders Cup...some faux injury will take place and she'll bow out as to keep up her value as a broodmare...her connections aren't going out on a loss

[mckinneyhog5]

Over Rachel How? I know that Rachel's feats basically came over a one year period, but I don't think that Beholder has done anything to say that she is better than Rachel.  For one, Beholder couldn't even win the KY Oaks, whereas Rachel might have been the favorite to win the KY Derby.  The track record is a cool deal, but honestly, who did she beat?  That was the weakest Grade I field you might ever see.  Rachel beat the boys on three different occasions, the Preakness, Haskell and Woodward against older horses as a 3 year old.  What has Beholder done that puts her over that?  Beholder couldn't even run in those three races in the same year, if she had the ability.  She runs 2-4 times a year and is gone for 8 months even since her 3 year old year.

Very impressive turn of foot, but nothing more than that.  That was a really weak group.  You want to run against good older horses, you better ship to the east coast because there is not a good one out west and it ain't even close.  I don't know what Baffert has done to Bayern, but that horse is done.  Hoppertunity, as well, he couldn't even pick up the pieces to hit the board.  Clement sent his horse out west to avoid to the big guys for a reason.  There shouldn't be a horse in the Classic from out west other than AP to go off under 20/1 in the Classic, if one even shows up. 

Not to high-jack the thread, but with AP going in the Travers there is this little tidbit, Baffert at Saratoga in races at 1 mile or longer is 2-30 and in stakes races at Saratoga since 2009 he is 2-34.  Not saying that AP will lose, but will be betting against.  Texas Red or Frosted will be the pick.  The injury of Japan probably hurts them two from a pace standpoint, but I will still play them to spoil AP's day.

Texas Red won't even finish ITM.  If Frosted stays close to AP he won't be ITM either.

[cbhawg03]

Texas Red won't even finish ITM.  If Frosted stays close to AP he won't be ITM either.

I don't know who all is running, but would be interesting to see what makes you think Texas Red won't hit the board. 

I do know that Japan is out, retired after injury in workout.  Upstart's trainer has said that they have been beat by AP enough, so I would guess that Upstart will avoid the race.  Possibly could have changed his mind with the hike in the purse since AP is running.   

Fwiw, I think Far Right was under consideration, but will go in the King's Bishop.   

Regardless, I don't know what Texas Red wouldn't hit the board.  Obviously, there is the chance they try to stay close to AP instead of falling back and making one run, which could lead to him tiring and missing the money, but otherwise, not sure why he wouldn't hit the board.  He has only missed the board in one race from 8 career starts. 

[HogFanInBryant]

Texas Red won't even finish ITM.  If Frosted stays close to AP he won't be ITM either.

Texas Red is just now getting cranked up.  I think he runs a monster race...that unfortunately will still be a few lengths behind AP.

[HogFanInBryant]

this is silly, just silly...we have a great Triple Crown winner and the 'doubting Thomases' are forever laying in the weeds trying to be the one's to say "I told you guys, I told you the mare was better than American Pharoah"...then after the race is run they suddenly become reflective and talk about how she ran a great race but, Blah Blah Blah....Beholder is NOT American Pharoah, not even close...she won't run in the Breeders Cup...some faux injury will take place and she'll bow out as to keep up her value as a broodmare...her connections aren't going out on a loss

I promise I am not saying she is better than AP.  My simple conclusion is that no horse in training would have beat her in the PC at DM last weekend.  She was absolutely perfect...and yes I think she would have outran AP but that doesn't mean she is better than him...all things considered.  Does that make sense at all?  I'm not a hater lol!

[mckinneyhog5]

I don't know who all is running, but would be interesting to see what makes you think Texas Red won't hit the board. 

I do know that Japan is out, retired after injury in workout.  Upstart's trainer has said that they have been beat by AP enough, so I would guess that Upstart will avoid the race.  Possibly could have changed his mind with the hike in the purse since AP is running.   

Fwiw, I think Far Right was under consideration, but will go in the King's Bishop.   

Regardless, I don't know what Texas Red wouldn't hit the board.  Obviously, there is the chance they try to stay close to AP instead of falling back and making one run, which could lead to him tiring and missing the money, but otherwise, not sure why he wouldn't hit the board.  He has only missed the board in one race from 8 career starts. 

Frosted, Keen Ice and Upstart IMHO will finish ahead of Texas Red.  He's outclassed and I know he just beat Frosted.  Think he is a prime candidate to bounce his next race.

[cbhawg03]

Texas Red won't even finish ITM.  If Frosted stays close to AP he won't be ITM either.

Who all will finish ahead of Texas Red?

1    Upstart     15/1
2    American Pharoah    1/5
3    Mid Ocean     50/1
4    Texas Red     8/1
5    Frammento     30/1
6    Frosted     6/1
7    Keen Ice     12/1
8    Tale of Verve     30/1
9    King of New York 50/1
10    Smart Transition     20/1

[mckinneyhog5]

Who all will finish ahead of Texas Red?

1    Upstart     15/1
2    American Pharoah    1/5
3    Mid Ocean     50/1
4    Texas Red     8/1
5    Frammento     30/1
6    Frosted     6/1
7    Keen Ice     12/1
8    Tale of Verve     30/1
9    King of New York 50/1
10    Smart Transition     20/1

Look above ^^^^^

[cbhawg03]

Look above ^^^^^

Guess your post wasn't up when I asked.

Don't think Texas Red bounces, has been trained up to this spot with injury. Think this will be 3rd off layoff.  Should move forward another step, question is if that is good enough.

Keen Ice needs a N1X.  Upstart's trainer is running to hit the board, has said he would try to AP after being trounced by him repeatedly so not sure that he will be primed for the race.

[HogFanInBryant]

Who all will finish ahead of Texas Red?

1    Upstart     15/1
2    American Pharoah    1/5
3    Mid Ocean     50/1
4    Texas Red     8/1
5    Frammento     30/1
6    Frosted     6/1
7    Keen Ice     12/1
8    Tale of Verve     30/1
9    King of New York 50/1
10    Smart Transition     20/1

Here is a tri that should be easy $:
2,4 with 2,4 with 6,7...the problem is you'll have to bet a $15 tri to make any $...and I'm strongly considering this exact ticket...hell maybe a $20 tri.

[HogFanInBryant]

Guess your post wasn't up when I asked.

Don't think Texas Red bounces, has been trained up to this spot with injury. Think this will be 3rd off layoff.  Should move forward another step, question is if that is good enough.

Keen Ice needs a N1X.  Upstart's trainer is running to hit the board, has said he would try to AP after being trounced by him repeatedly so not sure that he will be primed for the race.

You don't think Keen Ice will be suited perfectly at the distance and the type of surface that is Saratoga?  Something always comes running late in the Travers...like every freaking year!

[cbhawg03]

You don't think Keen Ice will be suited perfectly at the distance and the type of surface that is Saratoga?  Something always comes running late in the Travers...like every freaking year!

How many times is Donegal and Romans going to keep trying with turf horses?  They have had one every year that can't win on the dirt that is bred for turf, I.e. older horse in Cali that's good on turf, Finnegan's Wake?

Their trying so hard they giving horses to Pletcher now.

The problem with saying that he will make a run is there doesn't appear to be much pace in the race, granted I don't know all of these horses.  He made a run in the Belmont but that run got him within like 15 lengths.  I would only use in 3rd spot in a tri or 3rd and 4th in a Super.

Really think that you just box AP, Frosted and Texas Red for a lot.  Don't think you have to get fancy to hit this race.  Those three are head and shoulders better than anything else in this race.

[cbhawg03]

Frosted, Keen Ice and Upstart IMHO will finish ahead of Texas Red.  He's outclassed and I know he just beat Frosted.  Think he is a prime candidate to bounce his next race.

Upstart trainer still on the fence as to whether he will run Upstart or wait for PA Derby fwiw.  Doesn't want any part of AP

[jdelo77]

I wouldn't box anything , I would have it like this 2/4/6,7 ...

[HogFanInBryant]

I wouldn't box anything , I would have it like this 2/4/6,7 ...

I would agree if I didn't think that Texas Red might be sitting on his best race ever...which still might not be enough but good Lord if it is...I'd puke if I didn't have him on top and in 2nd...just saying!

[kingoftherapids]

boxing is a waste. the king goes on top.  if anything you go
2 / 4 / 6,7   and 2 /6,7 / 4       

[jdelo77]

Yep that's how I would play the tri and exacta ,  I might throw a little money on Texas red , because the show pool will be huge and I can only imagine if AP finishes out of the money how much bigger the payouts would be ...

[mckinneyhog5]

What happened to the super horse Texas Red?

[mckinneyhog5]

Frosted, Keen Ice and Upstart IMHO will finish ahead of Texas Red.  He's outclassed and I know he just beat Frosted.  Think he is a prime candidate to bounce his next race.

Add AP and you got the super...

[HogFanInBryant]

You don't think Keen Ice will be suited perfectly at the distance and the type of surface that is Saratoga?  Something always comes running late in the Travers...like every freaking year!

I bet exactly $0 on Keen Ice...WTH?