Belmont Stakes

[kingoftherapids]

Going to be another impressive field with horses skipping the Preakness.

As yall know, I'm all over AP.

What he did yesterday was more impressive than the derby by far. Goes out quick on a terrible track. They reel him in and then vctor hits the button and he pulls away without getting hit. That firing line horse who was the prime candidate to bounce, did just that and does not need to run in New York. He was over a football field behind AP crossing the wire.

Also people are talking about how that was the slowest Preakness since 1956. That's hilarious to me. Those rain soaked jocks yesterday weighed 135 pounds on a terrible track. Oh and 1956... That was Citation

[ghostzapper]

The likely field, per Jay Privman:

Jay Privman, Pimlico Race Course - DRF Live 18 minutes ago.
American Pharoah will be only horse to run in all 3 legs of Triple Crown this year
Looks like AMERICAN PHAROAH will be the only horse to run in all three Triple Crown legs. Dortmund is getting off the trail. "He's getting a little light," Baffert said. Firing Line and Danzig Moon are likely headed to other spots.

As of this morning, the Belmont challengers I've got for American Pharoah largely consist of horses who ran in the Derby and skipped the Preakness -- Frosted, Materiality, Keen Ice, Mubtaahij, Carpe Diem, and Frammento.

Madefromlucky, the Peter Pan winner, is also expected, as is Preakness runner-up Tale of Verve, who did not draw into the Derby.

[jdelo77]

Firing line stumbled or slipped out of the gate ... That's why he wasn't a factor

[kingoftherapids]

Nobody was going to be a factor yesterday.   You could tell in the post parade. Dortmund had his ears back in disgust.   Firing line was acting up and didn't care for all the rain. Pharoah had ears pricked.  He didn't have a great start but his speed is too good and he has the push button to go along

[ghostzapper]

I would have liked to see Firing Line and Dortmund move on to the Belmont, but I can understand their connections saying no. 

[HogFanInBryant]

I would have liked to see Firing Line and Dortmund move on to the Belmont, but I can understand their connections saying no. 

Why would you run them back when their actions are screaming to give them some time off?  Dortmund needs to go to a farm and be a horse for about 6 weeks.  Eat, sleep, take a dump...repeat repeat repeat!

[GoHogs1091]

As of now, here is the possible field.

American Pharoah
Keen Ice
Frosted
Carpe Diem
Materiality
Mubtaahij
Madefromlucky
Tale of Verve
Conquest Curlinate
Frammento

War Story and Tencendur are being considered.

[PorcineSublime]

Logic would say AP won't win in NY. According to the "smart people" he wasn't bred for the distance, but watching him pulling away with appearing to have plenty left the last two, I am not so sure. I will be pulling hard for him.

[ghostzapper]

The closest parallel to him is Seattle Slew.

[GoHogs1091]

Logic would say AP won't win in NY. According to the "smart people" he wasn't bred for the distance, but watching him pulling away with appearing to have plenty left the last two, I am not so sure. I will be pulling hard for him.

Someone on another message board stated before the Kentucky Derby that American Pharoah has been an enigma, in regards to his lack of stamina influence on the Dam side of his pedigree and his race results (leading up to the Derby).

He has just enough speed to help counter that lack of stamina influence, but he has also been aided in the last 2 races by snail-like early fractions that didn't force him to have to work in the early part of those last 2 races.

He has also been aided by the fact that his main challengers so far, particular in the Kentucky Derby, haven't improved their performance any from their Derby prep races, or at the minimum, equaled/matched their performance from their Derby prep races.  Even Dortmund or Firing Line, haven't improved any from their Derby prep races.

If he wins the Triple Crown, then he probably will be immediately retired.  One possible benefit of him not winning the Triple Crown is that we will be more apt to see him in the Breeders' Cup Classic.  In the Breeders' Cup Classic he could have to face Competitive Edge, Khozan, and Kentuckian.  Someone has mentioned on another message board that Kentuckian is the most talented horse to run at Golden Gate Fields in the last 15 years not named Shared Belief.

I still maintain that the best performance I saw on T.V. over those Oaks/Derby days at Churchill was Competitive Edge.  Pletcher has stated that what is scary is that it looks like Competitive Edge can maintain his speed over a long distance.

[Iwastherein1969]

If he wins the Triple Crown, then he probably will be immediately retired.  One possible benefit of him not winning the Triple Crown is that we will be more apt to see him in the Breeders' Cup Classic.  In the Breeders' Cup Classic he could have to face Competitive Edge, Khozan, and Kentuckian. 

These people have more money than God....their situation is not remotely the same Penny Tweedy and her family having to retire Secretariat to pay the bills off on the farm....if sound, American Pharoah will continue to race at least through his 3 year old season and I believe he'll race as an older horse in the handicap division. With his breeding America Pharoah, even if he won the Triple Crown, would demand no more than 100k per live foal, which IMO, is very much on the upper end of what he might get...and then it would only likely go down from there....these people get off on winning races and hanging in the winner's circle.....AP's sire began his career at 17.5 k per live foal standing and nursing...now with the success of his progeny, POTN gets 60k per pop...when you have 1.7 billion as your net worth, what's the point of another 50k ?

[cbhawg03]

These people have more money than God....their situation is not remotely the same Penny Tweedy and her family having to retire Secretariat to pay the bills off on the farm....if sound, American Pharoah will continue to race at least through his 3 year old season and I believe he'll race as an older horse in the handicap division. With his breeding America Pharoah, even if he won the Triple Crown, would demand no more than 100k per live foal, which IMO, is very much on the upper end of what he might get...and then it would only likely go down from there....these people get off on winning races and hanging in the winner's circle.....AP's sire began his career at 17.5 k per live foal standing and nursing...now with the success of his progeny, POTN gets 60k per pop...when you have 1.7 billion as your net worth, what's the point of another 50k ?

Spot on as far as the breeding plan would go, Smarty Jones was worth what some thought it would be if he won, you want to see a horse retired when he walks off the track winning the Triple Crown, better be royally bred. Then everybody will want a piece, until then the horse won't garnet what you really think.

[userpick]

These people have more money than God....their situation is not remotely the same Penny Tweedy and her family having to retire Secretariat to pay the bills off on the farm....if sound, American Pharoah will continue to race at least through his 3 year old season and I believe he'll race as an older horse in the handicap division. With his breeding America Pharoah, even if he won the Triple Crown, would demand no more than 100k per live foal, which IMO, is very much on the upper end of what he might get...and then it would only likely go down from there....these people get off on winning races and hanging in the winner's circle.....AP's sire began his career at 17.5 k per live foal standing and nursing...now with the success of his progeny, POTN gets 60k per pop...when you have 1.7 billion as your net worth, what's the point of another 50k ?

I'm trying to work out a deal where I don't have to pay taxes either so my net worth can get into the thousands!

[GoHogs1091]

These people have more money than God....their situation is not remotely the same Penny Tweedy and her family having to retire Secretariat to pay the bills off on the farm....if sound, American Pharoah will continue to race at least through his 3 year old season and I believe he'll race as an older horse in the handicap division. With his breeding America Pharoah, even if he won the Triple Crown, would demand no more than 100k per live foal, which IMO, is very much on the upper end of what he might get...and then it would only likely go down from there....these people get off on winning races and hanging in the winner's circle.....AP's sire began his career at 17.5 k per live foal standing and nursing...now with the success of his progeny, POTN gets 60k per pop...when you have 1.7 billion as your net worth, what's the point of another 50k ?

If he wins the Triple Crown, and if they retire him immediately, then his fee could be around $200,000.  If they continue to race him after winning the Triple Crown, and if he loses a time or two, (assume he loses one or two of either the Travers, the Haskell, or the Breeders' Cup Classic), then his fee could have to be around $100,000.  That extra $100,000 being lost would add up over time (let's assume he is bred to 100 Mares per a year for at least his first 5 years in the breeding shed).

Regarding the breeding aspect of American Pharoah, if I owned a Mare that I wanted to breed, I personally wouldn't choose either him or his Sire, Pioneer of the Nile (even if I had a Mare that had a supposed "good nick" with them, as proposed by a True Nicks hypothetical mating).

[cbhawg03]

I'm trying to work out a deal where I don't have to pay taxes either so my net worth can get into the thousands!

Your suppose to ignore that, these are great people your talking about

[Horsesrus]

If he wins the Triple Crown, and if they retire him immediately, then his fee could be around $200,000.  If they continue to race him after winning the Triple Crown, and if he loses a time or two, (assume he loses one or two of either the Travers, the Haskell, or the Breeders' Cup Classic), then his fee could have to be around $100,000.  That extra $100,000 being lost would add up over time (let's assume he is bred to 100 Mares per a year for at least his first 5 years in the breeding shed).

Regarding the breeding aspect of American Pharoah, if I owned a Mare that I wanted to breed, I personally wouldn't choose either him or his Sire, Pioneer of the Nile (even if I had a Mare that had a supposed "good nick" with them, as proposed by a True Nicks hypothetical mating).

There is no chance his initial fee will be $200k.  It might be $100k if he wins the triple crown.  My guess is $75k and I think that's too high based on his breeding.

[GoHogs1091]

There is no chance his initial fee will be $200k.  It might be $100k if he wins the triple crown.  My guess is $75k and I think that's too high based on his breeding.

Ghostzapper's initial fee was $200,000 and he wasn't a Triple Crown winner.  The economy was better though when Ghostzapper's initial fee was set.

There hasn't been a Triple Crown winner since 1978, so it is difficult to totally determine just how much of a fervor a Triple Crown winner entering the breeding realm in today's times will cause in the breeding community.

[Dumb ole famrboy]

There is no chance his initial fee will be $200k.  It might be $100k if he wins the triple crown.  My guess is $75k and I think that's too high based on his breeding.

Winning the Triple Crown also makes his pedigree stronger.

[kingoftherapids]

craziest story. last night i'm on the court and a buddy tells me that his girlfriends sister owns American Pharoah's full brother and mother... i thought no way. sure enough. its true. arkansas family owns the full brother to AP and the mother. colt was born feb 15 and is already named irish pharoah. i sure would like to be them right about now...

[Horsesrus]

Ghostzapper's initial fee was $200,000 and he wasn't a Triple Crown winner.  The economy was better though when Ghostzapper's initial fee was set.

There hasn't been a Triple Crown winner since 1978, so it is difficult to totally determine just how much of a fervor a Triple Crown winner entering the breeding realm in today's times will cause in the breeding community.

Ghostzapper's dam Baby Zip had already produced another G1 winner and stallion in City Zip. 

And yes the economy and even more so the breeding industry was far different in 2006 than it is today.  If they can get $200k for him, more power to them.

Evan Hammonds, editor of the Bloodhorse, said in a CNN article that they might try to get $100k if he wins the triple crown, but feels that amount would be a pretty tough sell. 

[onebadrubi]

Ghostzapper's dam Baby Zip had already produced another G1 winner and stallion in City Zip. 

And yes the economy and even more so the breeding industry was far different in 2006 than it is today.  If they can get $200k for him, more power to them.

Evan Hammonds, editor of the Bloodhorse, said in a CNN article that they might try to get $100k if he wins the triple crown, but feels that amount would be a pretty tough sell.

With the thought of the old being the industry can't afford to have a triple crown winner, does the fact that 100k is now high change the thought that the industry can't afford a triple crown winner?  By that I mean, all stops will be pulled out at belmont to not allow a triple crown winner, basically making taking over all aspects of the industry (training, breeding, and stables).  Can the industry afford that has been a popular thought, but now seeing the amount of a possible TC winner lowered, what do some of you think?

[Iwastherein1969]

If he wins the Triple Crown, and if they retire him immediately, then his fee could be around $200,000.  If they continue to race him after winning the Triple Crown, and if he loses a time or two, (assume he loses one or two of either the Travers, the Haskell, or the Breeders' Cup Classic), then his fee could have to be around $100,000.  That extra $100,000 being lost would add up over time (let's assume he is bred to 100 Mares per a year for at least his first 5 years in the breeding shed).

Regarding the breeding aspect of American Pharoah, if I owned a Mare that I wanted to breed, I personally wouldn't choose either him or his Sire, Pioneer of the Nile (even if I had a Mare that had a supposed "good nick" with them, as proposed by a True Nicks hypothetical mating).

the market doesn't bare those types of numbers at yearling sales anymore...now back in the late 70's early 80's when oil was booming the value of yearling horseflesh was over valued as any commodity I've ever seen...you'll see a few sale toppers in the 7 figures, but very few...the days of paying 1.2 million for a yearling by a son of Northern Dancer are over only to watch him race 5 times, fail to win and be retired because (tongue in cheek) he raced with a fractured bone in his knee ....again, those days are long gone, the chic thing to do now is buy some 'blue hen' mares and breed them yourself...that's how AP came about

[husker71]

KOR   did you mean last night I was on the court or last night I was in court??  Breeding and purchasing was very different in the 70s and part of the 80s  I encourage you guys to read about Nelson Bunker Hunt and how they had to sell all their stock after their failed attempt to corner the silver market. 

[Horsesrus]

There is no chance his initial fee will be $200k.  It might be $100k if he wins the triple crown.  My guess is $75k and I think that's too high based on his breeding.

Shows what I know.  Betfair has odds at 3-5 that AP initial stud fee will be between $175k - $200k.  You can get 3-1 that it is less than $175k.  I can't believe they will price him at that but if they can get enough people to pay it more power to them.  I don't think he will be standing for that much in years 4 and beyond. 

[kingoftherapids]

tapit is standing for 300k.... if he wins out the rest of the year, i think they will ask over 200.

[Iwastherein1969]

tapit is standing for 300k.... if he wins out the rest of the year, i think they will ask over 200.
[/quot

[kingoftherapids]

Article for horsesrus

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/13186941/american-pharoah-draw-historic-stallion-fee

[Horsesrus]

I think it's crazy but if they can get people to pay it more power to Coolmore.  It will be interesting to see the arc of his stud fee going forward if they start him that high.  Getting the money before his progeny hit the track is always a good strategy with the hype surrounding this horse.  After he has some runners and a few go through the sales we will get to see his breeding value long term.

[Horsesrus]

$200k for American Pharaoh is official from Ashford.  I think it is high but if the demand is there might as well get the $$$ while you can.  The hype will never be greater until we see how the babies turn out for the sales and then see if they are runners.  I don't know how much they paid Zayat but they should make a very nice return at that price.