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Anyone ever notice the first flash of the tote board ?

Started by jdelo77, February 05, 2014, 07:56:48 pm

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jdelo77

Who follows the first flash of the tote in maiden races to see if the horse is live ? Only reason I ask is a horse (50-1 ML ) at delta opened up as the favorite, then went on to win and payed $100 ... Anyone follow this method

userpick

Interesting. I like to look for horses that are 15/1 ML or higher and if they are 5 or 6/1 opening click, I will put money on them. I have no reasoning behind this except for what you just said. Sometimes you will see the odds go way back up and the horse will win.

 

showhimthewhip

What it boils down to is:
Do you feel like whoever sets the M/L is more educated on the subject than the general public.  In most cases, yes.

It is an interesting angle to play.

SEdrhawg

Quote from: jdelow77 on February 05, 2014, 07:56:48 pm
Who follows the first flash of the tote in maiden races to see if the horse is live ? Only reason I ask is a horse (50-1 ML ) at delta opened up as the favorite, then went on to win and payed $100 ... Anyone follow this method

Yeah, I watch this.  Had a horse a few years back (maiden race) at LAD that was ML 12-1 and opened up at 9-5.... I thought hmmmm...... anyways, horse ends up going off at 14-1 and I had him load.... not as drastic as your example, but same principle.

jdelo77

I can't remember if it was Andy Beyer  or James Quinn that talked about this method , that's what made me think about it , I also know my dad use to watch the tote to see if a first time starter was live , but he never handicapped either ... Interesting I guess !

husker71

If I was a big bettor that would be my philosophy.  Others are still talking about the previous race and what they should have done and going to the restroom or beer stand so really you have a couple of minutes to pour it in.  I see a lot oft people  not really interested in the next race until say the 10 minute to post or when they bring the horses out. If you try to do this((pour in money) in the last 4 minutes some will follow you like lemmings.   

RockChalkJayhawk

Quote from: jdelow77 on February 05, 2014, 07:56:48 pm
Who follows the first flash of the tote in maiden races to see if the horse is live ? Only reason I ask is a horse (50-1 ML ) at delta opened up as the favorite, then went on to win and payed $100 ... Anyone follow this method
I played that race, but on my phone so I had no access to the pools.  That 7 horse did have a really good work, and its best prior race was off the trainer change, with a 42 Beyer.  I looked and looked at the pp of that horse and was only mildly interested, and of course didn't pull the trigger, instead betting the 6 horse at 36-1. 

Although I respect the theory you are talking about, the pools at Delta are SO small, particularly early, that a $100 win bet can move the needle significantly.  At Delta I just play the horses I like and try not to be swayed by the board.  Either way, it's a tough track to hit because of all the cheap, conditioned, and inconsistent, and usually laid-off horses.