Breeders Cup Selections

[cbhawg03]

http://www.onefasthorse.com/breeders-cup-selections-show/107262/

[cbhawg03]

The day starts with the much-maligned but utterly harmless Marathon. The race was a noble idea that has failed to spark a renaissance of interest or participation in long-distance American racing, and which this year also has failed to attract any proven long-winded European types. I picked the race Cease, Pool Play, Blueskiesnrainbows, and London Bridge, and have roughly the same confidence as if I had picked any four names out of a hat.

The Juvenile Turf has been won by a European making his American debut in four of its six runnings, and I see no reason that trend should not continue. European grass horses are a notch above ours, just as our horses always have the edge on dirt. Outstrip and Giovanni Boldini look like the best of the Euros, so I picked them one-two in that order, followed by another Euro, Wilshire Boulevard, and the top American, Bobby's Kitten. Other possibilities are the least-accomplished Euro, Shamshon, and the possibly underrated American colt Poker Player.

The Dirt Mile, an iffy proposition with a small field in some years, came up a strong race this year with seven Grade 1 winners including Verrazano and Goldencents, this year's Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby winners. They both failed going the classic distances but are perfectly suited to a one-mile race around two turns, the configuration for the Dirt Mile when it is run at Santa Anita. It's useful to think of the race as a shortened route rather than an extended sprint.

If Verrazano repeats his Haskell performance, he'll win by daylight. The pricey horse I'll try to get into the mix with those 3-year-olds is the 7-year-old Hymn Book at 15-1 on the morning line. He makes his second start off a layoff and finished well to be third in the slow-paced Kelso last time out.

The Juvenile Fillies Turf is another invitation to European dominance, and I'm going with the Group 1 winners Chriselliam (Fillies' Mile) and Vorda (Cheveley Park). Unbeaten Al Thakhira has yet to face top company but might be just as good. Among the Americans, Testa Rossi turned in the best performance winning the Miss Grillo. My Conquestadory will be an underlay off her synthetic-track Alcibiades, but deserves respect off a victory over males in the Grade 2 Summer in her racing debut.

And then it's time to sit back and enjoy the race that has appropriately had its name restored to the original Distaff after an unfortunate spell of being called the Ladies' Classic. It's only a six-horse field, but what a trio of favorites: Royal Delta, already a dual Eclipse winner, trying for her third straight victory in the race; Princess of Sylmar, who upset Royal Delta in the Beldame after sweeping the Kentucky Oaks, CCA Oaks, and Alabama; and Beholder, last year's champion 2-year-old filly, who will enjoy a home-court advantage.

Princess of Sylmar's mere presence in the race may be the most sporting gesture of the racing season – she could have called it a year after the Beldame and been assured of a divisional title instead of crossing the country. It's hard not to root for her off that alone and she's my pick in the Distaff. The race is filled with strategic intrigue that may well determine the winner. Beholder and Royal Delta have repeatedly run brilliantly when loose on the lead, but they can't both be there, while Princess of Sylmar may need them to hook up early to run them both down late.

[showhimthewhip]

Thanks cbrooks

[cbhawg03]

Thanks cbrooks

The long drawn out picks is from drf article.

[cbhawg03]

Santa Anita - - Breeders' Cup Friday - - Grade 1 BC Juvenile Turf - - One mile on turf - - Race 7 - - post time 2:25 PT

Taking a European in the Juvenile Turf is often a smart move, as no America-based horse has won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf when it has been held at Santa Anita.  The connections of the last two winners, the owner/trainer team of Tabor/O'Brien are live with two in here, but we'll side with OUTSTRIP in this event.  He's earned triple digit Racing Post figures in three of his four starts, and I like the fact he graduated at first asking in a field of thirteen.  He'll ship over off a second in a G1 at Newmarket and won two back in a G2 in the UK.  BOBBY'S KITTEN will be the favorite off his sterling New York turf starts, as well as hailing from all-world grass sire Kitten's Joy.  It's a Ramsey production through and through, and he earned a quality figure last time in the Pilgrim. He's logical, but the issue with him is pace: front runners like BOBBY'S KITTEN have not much success in one mile turf races at Santa Anita (especially when the rail is at zero), and he'll be facing quality European closers.  Still, he's the best of the Americans.  GIOVANNI BOLDINI goes for the aforementioned Tabor/O'Brien team that won last year with George Vancouver.  He's got two figures that hold up well against this field.  Unlike OUTSTRIP, he's been bouncing between synthetic surfaces and grass and his victories have been on the synthetic (while his lone loss is on grass).  Getting Ryan Moore to ride is a plus, too.

Selections:
#4 OUTSTRIP (4/1)

#5 BOBBY'S KITTEN (5/2)

#2 GIOVANNI BOLDNINI (7/2)

Longshot: #9 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD (8/1) is the "other" O'Brien/Tabor horse in here, and he ships here off a fourth in a French G1 on Arc Day.  Prior to that fourth, he did win a G3 three back and was nosed out in a G2, both coming in Europe.  His figures are a touch lower than those of OUTSTRIP or GIOVANNI BOLDNINI, but he's raced well on courses with give and perhaps the inexperience with a faster and firmer course will keep his price square.  William Buick takes the call, not a huge drop-off from Ryan Moore.

[jdelo77]

I love beholder ...

[cbhawg03]

I love beholder ...

Love the way she is coming into the race, but think this race sets up from Princess or even maybe Authenticity at a price.

[mckinneyhog5]

Commander in the BC Marathon
Willshire Boulevard in the BC Juv Turf
Goldencents in Dirt Mile  1st
Testa Rossi in the BC JuvFilTurf 2nd
Princess of Sylmar in the BC Distaff
She's a Tiger in the BCJuvFil. 2nd
Emolientin the FM Turf.
Ismene in FM Sprint.
Mizdirection n the Turf Sprint. 1st
Strong Mandate in the Juvenile.  3rd
The Fugue in the BC Turf.  2nd
Sum of the Parts in the BC Sprint.
Cristoforo Colombo in the BC Mile
Palace Malice in the Classic.

[cbhawg03]

Commander in the BC Marathon
Willshire Boulevard in the BC Juv Turf
Goldencents in Dirt Mile
Testa Rossi in the BC JuvFilTurf
Princess of Sylmar in the BC Distaff
She's a Tiger in the BCJuvFil.
Emolientin the FM Turf.
Ismene in FM Sprint.
Mizdirection n the Turf Sprint.
Strong Mandate in the Juvenile.
The Fugue in the BC Turf.
Sum of the Parts in the BC Sprint.
Cristoforo Colombo in the BC Mile
Palace Malice in the Classic.

I am going away from V and Goldencents in the Dirt Mile, as I think they will set it up for someone else.

I like either Pincess or Authenticity to win the Distaff.

I don't think that Emollient has a shot in the F & M Turf. I am now between Romantica, Alterite and Laughing.

Turf Sprint may be the hardest race, as Mizdirection and Reneesgotzip and Caracortado all coming off long layoffs. I know what Mizdirection and Reneesgotzip did last year, but if those three don't fire then you have a wide open race.

I don't know if Strong Mandate can be trusted. Lukas blames last race on a poor ride so that is the reason for the jock switch.

Hard to argue with The Fugue. I do like Indy Point, Big Blue Kitten though. Also probably have to throw in Magician.

Sprint I will go with Bahamian Squall.

The Mile, well I will go with a Wise Dan and No Jet Lag exacta.

I am going with Will Take Charge. Exacta Box WTC, Fort Larned and MMM.

[showhimthewhip]

Commander in the Marathon
Outstrip in the juvy turf
V in the dirt mile
Al Thakhira in the juvy fillies turf
unloaded on Beholder in the Distaff

[cbhawg03]

Race 3 $0.50 Pick 4

2 , 9 at 47/1 wt 6 , 10 at 8/1 wt 2 , 3 wt 3 , 4 , 6

[kingoftherapids]

Marathon is wide open.    i am going exacta 7,4 with 7,4,2,10 and reversed. anybody playing this wide open afair

[yraciv]

Went with a 7-8 box, but it is a crapshoot.

[jdelo77]

Good call on that exacta , the marathon is such a crap shoot ...

[cbhawg03]

Went with a 7-8 box, but it is a crapshoot.

Good call. KOR, hope you played that 7.

$0.50 Pick 4 paid over $25k

[jdelo77]

I love the 4 here

Exacta 4/5,9,11

[kingoftherapids]

Great call on that 7-8 exacta. I had the 7, but i need another couple races to cash on it. I love the breeders cup. these odds are just awesome.

this race (juv turf) i am am going 2-5-8-4. i like the 8 as a longshot. throwing in your 4 here jdelow. lets whack em fellas.

[yraciv]

Nice start! Certainly not playing Bobby's Kitten at 6-5 in this one.

[yraciv]

4,9,12 exacta box. Play the Europeans!

[jdelo77]

I agree euros ! I'm throwing the 2 on bottom as well

[jdelo77]

Good thing I threw the 2 under him !

[kingoftherapids]

BAM! thatnks for the 4! heck of a call. Bobbie's kitten is one tough horse! those fractions were insane!

[showhimthewhip]

Boom

[yraciv]

Good thing I threw the 2 under him !

Yeah thought about it, but thought he might get boxed.

[kingoftherapids]

first time i have ever hit a 4 horse box super in the breeders cup. i might as well retire

[cbhawg03]

Great call on that 7-8 exacta. I had the 7, but i need another couple races to cash on it. I love the breeders cup. these odds are just awesome.

this race (juv turf) i am am going 2-5-8-4. i like the 8 as a longshot. throwing in your 4 here jdelow. lets whack em fellas.

I didn't listen to the 8. I had the 4 picked and just played it to win.

[jdelo77]

Outstrip stood out in the post parade big time ! Those fractions were hot , and mike smith handled him great ...

[showhimthewhip]

first time i have ever hit a 4 horse box super in the breeders cup. i might as well retire

Nice job kotr

[cbhawg03]

I'm going with Goldencents here

[jdelo77]

Playing a 7,10,11,12 super here

[yraciv]

Going with a win ticket on Hymn Book here, and boxing the 4 and 5.

[HogFanInBryant]

I hope I don't regret getting off Hymn Book, but taking a shot here and going with #9 CI......playing $15wps.

[jdelo77]

does Alpha have a chance here ?

[kingoftherapids]

All i have here is 10,4,5 to hit the pick 3 and be alive thru two of another... not doing anything except rooting for these 3 and starting another pick 3 wager.

[cbhawg03]

Trifecta 11 , 12 wt 2 , 4 , 11 , 12 wt 2 , 4 , 11 , 12

[showhimthewhip]

10 win, and 4 show... Couldn't help including him at 7-1

[showhimthewhip]

Wow what a cake walk

[kingoftherapids]

Trifecta 11 , 12 wt 2 , 4 , 11 , 12 wt 2 , 4 , 11 , 12

Heck of a call and Great payout considering!

[cbhawg03]

Thanks KOR

Who you guys got here?

[cbhawg03]

I can see 2, 4, 6, 8, 11, 12 or 14 winning.

Wide open

[kingoftherapids]

i am going with 14,6. chalk but i like them over the others. longshots for me are the 4 and 11.

[yraciv]

Sticking with the Europeans going 8-10-12 in an exacta box.
Longshot Trifecta Play 8,10,14/6,8/5,9

[jdelo77]

Love the 6 here
6/14 ex
Tri 6 wt 14,5,2,4 wt 14,5,2,4

[jdelo77]

Small tri box 6,14,5

[showhimthewhip]

Playing the 2. Gut feeling

[cbhawg03]

I went 2 and 4

[kingoftherapids]

Sticking with the Europeans going 8-10-12 in an exacta box.
Longshot Trifecta Play 8,10,14/6,8/5,9

Hashtag euros! lol nice exacta!

[cbhawg03]

I kept looking at that 8 horse, but didn't like that not many have liked her when she ran in Europe.

8/1
5/1
5.5/1
28/1
6/1

Never much respect

[cbhawg03]

IMO Speed is king at SA today.

So thus the question, which old man is going to the front? Mike Smith or Gary Stevens?

That is the winner IMO

[yraciv]

Calling it a day on that. Six horse field with heavy favorites just doesn't entice me. I'd go with Beholder over Royal Delta in the Distaff, but not touching it.