Belmont winner? This should not be hard to dig up this year.

[HogFanInBryant]

Hear me out....in past years when you have no TC on the line, no superstar, and a crop of 3 year olds that seem to be below average....there is but one thing to look for in the Belmont.

Who in the hell wants to run 1.5 miles and who doesn't?  I am pretty sure that the winner is right under our noses, but it might take some research.  I am tired of getting my a$$ kicked this year so far and am going to put my heart and soul into figuring out who does and does not want to run this far.  This tri should not be that hard to hit but you gotta start with the winner. 

The year that I won a ton of $ in the Belmont with Drossellmeyer I stuck with the theory of which horse is bred to run this far and which horse is the "grinder" type that always seems to win dirt races at distances over 1.25 miles. 

Gotta sit and wait to see how everyone comes out of the Preakness....how some of the KD horses that skipped the Preakness are doing....and figure out something about the newcomers that have not ran in the 1st 2 legs of the TC. 

This race really is one of the easiest races of the year to win because you can USUALLY draw a line through a horse with high speed figs that will take some $ in the betting....if his breeding says he wants no part of this distance.

Thoughts?

[songofthesword]

if orb runs in the belmont and i think he will because of the connections he will run away and hide.  he's just better than these horses even with today.

[HogFanInBryant]

if orb runs in the belmont and i think he will because of the connections he will run away and hide.  he's just better than these horses even with today.

I am not so sure....I think Orb will hate the surface at Belmont, its deeper than Pimlico and the ground breaks away from the horses feet when its dry.  I think Orb wants to sit pretty far off a hot pace and that just doesn't seem to happen in the Belmont.  Thats why I say it takes a grinder to sit mid pack and never really make a big move, just a slow gradual move while everything in front gets tired slowly and they just seem to kind of drift by the tired horses.

[songofthesword]

orb trains at belmont.

[HogFanInBryant]

I still think Orb wants to close from far back into a hot pace.....and that doesn't happen on the Belmont surface very often no matter what the distance is....and it rarely happens in the Belmont Stakes.  If he lost by 10 lengths with very little excuses in 1:57 at 1 3/16 then he does not want to run the mile and a half.

[riccoar]

I think this distance will better suit Orb and like sos said, he is located there.  The jockey just did not read the field or track on Saturday.  Nobody was running the rail.  I think once the two front runners set the pace he should have moved him outside.  He got bottle necked and had to slow up for just a brief second and then it was over.  Once those first three hit 5th gear there was no way he was over coming that.

[Iwastherein1969]

I'd bet Orb will run in the Belmont....Rosario will keep him wide the whole way and he'll prove he's the best animal...the other day, as soon as Orb got covered up on the rail, he stopped trying....this weakness in his game proves he shouldn't be a triple crown winner, but if he gets the right trip in the Belmont, the others have no shot

[cbhawg03]

I got my bet for the Belmont already.......Will Take Charge

Big stride, good KY Derby until completely stopped. Draw line through the Preakness

[mckinneyhog5]

I might take a look at NI if he runs...I think he just broke a track record yesterday at Pocono. I know, I know it's Pocono but at least it seems he is feeling good.

[HogFanInBryant]

Look no further for your Belmont winner than Overanalyze.  I have looked at the PP's and looked at the replays and I think this horse is most suited for the running style that usually wins the Belmont and if there were any doubts about Dixie Union.....that was put to rest by Union Rags last year.  And any of you that remember Unaccounted For you will know that this horse always ran great on the Belmont dirt.

I am drawing a line through the KD and looking at how easy he put away a decent field in the Ark Derby.  I know we are a ways away and anything can happen, but as it sits right now I actually love this horse in this spot. 

[cbhawg03]

Look no further for your Belmont winner than Overanalyze.  I have looked at the PP's and looked at the replays and I think this horse is most suited for the running style that usually wins the Belmont and if there were any doubts about Dixie Union.....that was put to rest by Union Rags last year.  And any of you that remember Unaccounted For you will know that this horse always ran great on the Belmont dirt.

I am drawing a line through the KD and looking at how easy he put away a decent field in the Ark Derby.  I know we are a ways away and anything can happen, but as it sits right now I actually love this horse in this spot.

He was an automatic toss in KY Derby, simply because of his form. Me,  McKinney and SOS discussed that in another thread, because he will win a race and then bomb and then win again. So he was due to bomb in KY Derby.

I will admit this was the first horse that crossed my mind when thinking Belmont winner, but it lasted a very short period of time until I remembered who the trainer and owner is, no two that I cheer harder against than Pletcher and Repole!

Also, who did he beat in the AR Derby? Even though while at the track this is who I settled on and had a nice ticket on.

Falling Sky could never carry his speed that far.

Frac Daddy is well, I don't think we know yet.

Oxbow never ran his race at all, and seems to be the one that needs either the lead or absolutely no dirt hitting his face.

Carve, I believe was a claimer and haven't heard from him since the AR Derby.

Den's Legacy, people have been begging Baffert to put him on the grass.

So for who he has beat and hasn't beat along with his connections, he is out for me. Hope ya don't lose a lot, but also hoping he doesn't sniff the board either. His win then lose form cycle says he should win though.

[HogFanInBryant]

He was an automatic toss in KY Derby, simply because of his form. Me,  McKinney and SOS discussed that in another thread, because he will win a race and then bomb and then win again. So he was due to bomb in KY Derby.

I will admit this was the first horse that crossed my mind when thinking Belmont winner, but it lasted a very short period of time until I remembered who the trainer and owner is, no two that I cheer harder against than Pletcher and Repole!

Also, who did he beat in the AR Derby? Even though while at the track this is who I settled on and had a nice ticket on.

Falling Sky could never carry his speed that far.

Frac Daddy is well, I don't think we know yet.

Oxbow never ran his race at all, and seems to be the one that needs either the lead or absolutely no dirt hitting his face.

Carve, I believe was a claimer and haven't heard from him since the AR Derby.

Den's Legacy, people have been begging Baffert to put him on the grass.

So for who he has beat and hasn't beat along with his connections, he is out for me. Hope ya don't lose a lot, but also hoping he doesn't sniff the board either. His win then lose form cycle says he should win though.

I am not a fan of Pletcher or Repole by any means...but I am a fan of cashing tickets.  I just think that the mommy side of this horse screams mile and a half and I know the Dixie Union will ensure hang close to a slow pace and grind it out.  If you want to see exactly what I think will happen, then go back and watch the race where Drossellmeyer won the Belmont....nothing flashy but just kind of hangs and passes tired horses who don't want any part of the distance.  I am pretty sure JV will get the mount too, which will hurt the odds but I bet he will still be 8-1 or better.

[cbhawg03]

I can see WTC inning though, just grinding down horses and getting up like he did to Oxbow in the Rebel