As things stand right now (April 6th)....who is your KD top 3 in order?

[HogFanInBryant]

1. Oxbow-push button horse, bred to run all day, will be dead fit by May 4th

2. Flashback-big goofy horse is still learning, but is a grinder that I can see getting the distance, has enough speed to stay out of trouble but is learning how to sit off the lead

3. Orb-I think he will be way back in the KD and is classy enough to blow by them all with a fast pace up front....plus I absolutely love Shug as a trainer

[songofthesword]

orb
normady invasion
governor charlie

[HogFanInBryant]

orb
normady invasion
governor charlie

SOS...why Gov Charlie?  I know he put up a flashy time on the concrete in New Mexico, but what makes you think he can go 1.25 miles on a track like CD?

[hogoffate]

Orb
Revolutionary
Oxbow

Might not be the best crop of 3 year olds but should be a good race
I'm biased; these 3 are also my bets in the future pool

[GoHogs1091]

I might have to pick Orb as my #1 by default.  I am not too thrilled with maybe having to pick a horse as my #1 who ran on that suped up surface at Gulfstream. 

It looks like there won't be a good possibility coming out of the West Coast.

Oxbow always fires in races.  If Oxbow has a good Arkansas Derby, then he could be a significant factor in the Kentucky Derby but will his normal "firing" be enough in the Kentucky Derby to win the race? 

Here is the issues I have with some of the horses.

Revolutionary-  To me, they made a mistake sending him to Louisiana.  They should have sent him to Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby.  I don't like that long lay off between the Louisiana Derby and the Kentucky Derby.  If I am not mistaken, Grindstone is the only horse to have won the Kentucky Derby who won the Louisiana Derby.  Additionally, Revolutionary seems to have a penchant for having a troubled race (seems to occur mainly by his own doing).  He has gotten away with it in his last 2 races, but it will be extremely difficult to overcome a troubled type of trip in the 20 horse stampede of the Kentucky Derby (a 20 horse stampede that is normally not a cleanly run race due to the amount of horses in the race).

Governor Charlie-  Only has 3 career starts.  From what I have read, the Owner, Mike Pegram, is still not 100% certain they are going to run him in the Kentucky Derby.  To me, they should have sent Governor Charlie to Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby for 2 main reasons; 1st, to give him another career start, and 2nd, the lay off between the Sunland Derby and the Kentucky Derby is even longer than the lay off between the Louisiana Derby and the Kentucky Derby, and running in the Arkansas Derby would have been a good race to counteract that long lay off between the Sunland Derby and the Kentucky Derby.

Verrazano-  I did not know until today that Verrazano had not raced at age 2 (that to me is basically an automatic toss; if I am not mistaken, the last horse to have won the Kentucky Derby who did not race at age 2 occurred in the 1890s).  I knew that Verrazano was lightly raced going into today, but I did not know that all of his races had occurred this year.  Even Curlin did not win the Kentucky Derby having not raced at age 2.

Horses that might become a factor/and or might need to be considered in regards to the Kentucky Derby.

War Academy-  Will have to win the Arkansas Derby because 40 points for 2nd place will not be enough (he currently doesn't have any points). 

Den's Legacy-  If he does well in the Arkansas Derby (just needs a 2nd in the Arkansas Derby to get into the Kentucky Derby; Den's Legacy currently has 20 points).   

West Hills Giant-  If he is in the Blue Grass Stakes, and if he does well in the Blue Grass Stakes (a 2nd place in the Blue Grass will get him in the Kentucky Derby; West Hills Giant currently has 20 points).     

Java's War-  If he does well in the Blue Grass Stakes (a 2nd place in the Blue Grass will get him in the Kentucky Derby; Java's War currently has 22 points).       







     

[cbhawg03]

orb
normady invasion
governor charlie

Normandy Invasion after the Wood! Chasing Verrazano that had his tounge hanging out and still couldn't catch him and the lackluster performance at FG, I will pass. If it was a Turf Filly then I would let Brown train it, otherwise his dirt record speaks for itself (horrible).

If I remember correctly then he just won his first graded stakes on the dirt the other day since Awesome Feather.

[cbhawg03]

1. Oxbow

2. Will Take Charge and Texas Bling, Bling will make a name for himself after next Saturday, mark my words.

3. By default Revoloutionary, Orb, Itsmyluckyday

[songofthesword]

Normandy Invasion after the Wood! Chasing Verrazano that had his tounge hanging out and still couldn't catch him and the lackluster performance at FG, I will pass. If it was a Turf Filly then I would let Brown train it, otherwise his dirt record speaks for itself (horrible).

If I remember correctly then he just won his first graded stakes on the dirt the other day since Awesome Feather.

Noramdy invastion damn near caught V after trying to close into a stupidly slow pace where V had about a 4 length jump on him and still was closing better.

the horse is going to gobble up the 10F at that pace. I don't think Normady invasion is a better horse than V or even Governor charlie but i think if he gets a decent post the race sets up for him better than just about anyone in the race he's bred up and down for that diestnace and has proven more than once he can close into anything.


This reminds me a lot of the 05 derby.  Afleet Alex was the best horse but not the best bet.

the only thing that scares me about orb is that i don't think he can shut off long enough to go 10F. but i like him a lot that and the gulfstream track watch him closer than any horse these coming weeks if there is any funny business with his training pattern run the other way. 

Oh and Declassfy will be better than all of these by the travers.

[ghostzapper]

If Beyer figs influence Derby favorite, it will be Goldencents who got the best fig by a colt.  His race was 3-4 lengths better than V's yesterday

[showhimthewhip]

Things will have to be just right for Normandy Invasion... one trick pony.

[showhimthewhip]

Oxbox
Verrazano
Normandy Invasion

[mckinneyhog5]

Goldencents
Oxbow
Dan's Legecy

[SquidBilly]

Orb
Goldencents
Oxbow