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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

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Junkyard Hog

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on November 05, 2015, 11:37:16 pm
My only regret was not playing more. I made a lot of coin on ms state. This was the bet of the century.

I'm just glad it stopped raining.

DadVader1

I apologize for this geek post, but I just HAD to share it somewhere.  Last year, I figured out a way to run a LOT of what-if scenarios, but the output wasn't in a very user friendly format, and I ran out of season before figuring that part out.  I got married over the summer so haven't had much time to devote to football this season so just recently got back around to that project.  I got the last kinks worked out of it yesterday evening and was able to run a little over 380,000 what-if scenarios overnight with an output that is easy to sort and filter.  No great discoveries yet, but one trend that is worth watching is at 29-5 ytd.  It likes Purdue +5 and Kansas +29.5.  I'm hesitant to include the trend records here, because it's rare for any one trend to hold true over the long term.  As the old stock phrase goes: past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  OK, end of geek excitement (as I'm running another 190,000 what-ifs in the background now).

 

onebadrubi

Quote from: DadVader1 on November 06, 2015, 10:16:03 am
I apologize for this geek post, but I just HAD to share it somewhere.  Last year, I figured out a way to run a LOT of what-if scenarios, but the output wasn't in a very user friendly format, and I ran out of season before figuring that part out.  I got married over the summer so haven't had much time to devote to football this season so just recently got back around to that project.  I got the last kinks worked out of it yesterday evening and was able to run a little over 380,000 what-if scenarios overnight with an output that is easy to sort and filter.  No great discoveries yet, but one trend that is worth watching is at 29-5 ytd.  It likes Purdue +5 and Kansas +29.5.  I'm hesitant to include the trend records here, because it's rare for any one trend to hold true over the long term.  As the old stock phrase goes: past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  OK, end of geek excitement (as I'm running another 190,000 what-ifs in the background now).

I'm not sure anyone in their right mind wants to spot any Texas opponent that many points, so I really like that play actually. 

Also, Illinois could easily get beat by purdue (isnt it at Purdue?).  I think the Purdue ML is a valuable play. 

widespreadsooie

Quote from: DadVader1 on November 06, 2015, 10:16:03 am
I apologize for this geek post, but I just HAD to share it somewhere.  Last year, I figured out a way to run a LOT of what-if scenarios, but the output wasn't in a very user friendly format, and I ran out of season before figuring that part out.  I got married over the summer so haven't had much time to devote to football this season so just recently got back around to that project.  I got the last kinks worked out of it yesterday evening and was able to run a little over 380,000 what-if scenarios overnight with an output that is easy to sort and filter.  No great discoveries yet, but one trend that is worth watching is at 29-5 ytd.  It likes Purdue +5 and Kansas +29.5.  I'm hesitant to include the trend records here, because it's rare for any one trend to hold true over the long term.  As the old stock phrase goes: past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  OK, end of geek excitement (as I'm running another 190,000 what-ifs in the background now).

Always enjoy updates on the sheets. Keep 'em coming as you see fit. You're having a great year thus far.

hogsanity

not much tonight:

temp/smu ov 51
rice -6
byu-13

So far for Sat ( prob add some more later tonight or early tomorrow a.m. )

mem-9
mich st -6
nc st -4
hous -9
uconn -5.5

People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

onebadrubi

That mich st line has me sucked in!  I'm on it and got it at -5 or -5.5 earlier in the week.  I think the world is going to be on this side.  A head scratcher for sure. 

DadVader1

I wondered about that one too.  It looks too good to be true.  I know they've kept a few too many games close and have been bad about not covering, but Nebraska has been just plain bad this year.

jkstock04

I'm playing a 5 unit bet on Michigan st tomorrow as well
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

jkstock04

Here's what i have:

(Tonight) Temple/SMU over 51...4*

Michigan st -6...5*
Cincinnati +9...5*
Florida St +10.5...4*
Oklahoma st +6...4*
NC state -4...3*

Good luck everyone


Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

SPAL


WILL CLINTON

November 06, 2015, 06:38:37 pm #8960 Last Edit: November 07, 2015, 10:56:02 am by WILL CLINTON
Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on November 04, 2015, 11:55:03 pm
Will, I'm 0-5 since you declared me king of NCAA. You better do something to reverse this. Tell me I suck or something.

I saw this earlier, but I knew you'd pull out of it. I'm really just amazed that I was able to pass on the "bragging" curse to someone else. Usually hits me after I think I'm doing well. Even with the 0-fer I'd still wager you were at or near the top of the heap this year, at least on here.

I imagine I'll only play a few this weekend, as I seem to have much better results the lower number of games I bet.

I'm with you tonight on Temple, so we'll probably both lose now.

Temple -13

I rarely do teasers or parlays, and I don't count them in my record, but tonight I've got one with the over and Temple -13.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Spikes

Took SMU+13. 79 % of bets in Temple. Will try my luck with fading the public
You only have one life, so you better enjoy it!

widespreadsooie

Tommorow's card:

OK St +5.5
SC +17.5
LSU +7
Hogs+10
Tulsa -16.5
Pitt +8.5

28-27 YTD

 

SPAL

I swear I looked at that score and it was a 6 point game with 4 minutes left. How in the world did it end up 20 and a cover?

SPAL

Tallied it up finally.....

22-15-3 NCAA (60%)

WAS 20-9-3 before Will hit me with the voodoo doodoo

I'm sure someone can top that


SPAL

November 07, 2015, 05:11:54 am #8965 Last Edit: November 07, 2015, 10:38:18 pm by sir-pigs-a-lot
Nebraska +6....W
Bama -7.....W
Oklahoma state +6....W
Florida State +12....W

jkstock04

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on November 06, 2015, 11:28:27 pm
I swear I looked at that score and it was a 6 point game with 4 minutes left. How in the world did it end up 20 and a cover?
Got a little weird...2 point conversions and pick 6's.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Making my biggest play of the year today. Prob means I will jinx it.

NC ST -4 / 3 dimes
Penn ST pk / 2 units
Clemson -12 4 units
S Carolina +17.5 / 2 units
Duke +7 / 2 units
LSU +7 / 2 units
Kentucky +16 / 2 units
Let's make some waves.

DadVader1

Quote from: hogsanity on November 06, 2015, 03:18:18 pm
temp/smu ov 51


Good call!  Looks like the bet of the weekend.  So much for Temple's #9 scoring defense. 

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

And to round out my morning before going to the gym my 5 year old got tangled in the covers on the bed and yelled "darn I'm stuck". Okay it changed the real word to darn.  The word he said started with SH and ended with T was an I mixed in.

After a thorough and proper reprimand I will outside to release the laughter.
Let's make some waves.

onebadrubi

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on November 07, 2015, 08:50:10 am
And to round out my morning before going to the gym my 5 year old got tangled in the covers on the bed and yelled "darn I'm stuck". Okay it changed the real word to darn.  The word he said started with SH and ended with T was an I mixed in.

After a thorough and proper reprimand I will outside to release the laughter.

Haha that's hilarious!  How were able to hold it back before the discipline?

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: onebadrubi on November 07, 2015, 09:26:35 am
Haha that's hilarious!  How were able to hold it back before the discipline?


Was very very difficult
Let's make some waves.

DadVader1

Michigan State has now dropped to -3.5.  They may suck me in before the day is over.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

I really like Pitt today +9.5 at home against the Irish. But Catholic guy so cheer for Notre Dame usually. Always been a Pitt fan.

Gonna leave it alone. Can't pull the trigger even though I think it's a good bet.
Let's make some waves.

 

mckinneyhog5

Kentucky +17
Vandy.     +21
Taco Tech +8
Purdue     +4

Ultimate underdog 4 team parlay.
Quote from: mckinneyhog5 on April 07, 2019, 10:29:55 pmGuys, we have hired the BEST coach that we could have hired. Musselman is gonna rock it here like we haven't seen since the early 90's. Just sit back and watch it unfold! We WILL be a nationally recognized program again soon.

WILL CLINTON

November 07, 2015, 11:07:29 am #8975 Last Edit: November 07, 2015, 11:18:52 am by WILL CLINTON
Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on November 06, 2015, 11:28:27 pm
I swear I looked at that score and it was a 6 point game with 4 minutes left. How in the world did it end up 20 and a cover?
I turned it off after SMU returned the safety kick for a TD to bring them within 5. 15 mins later my phone went off with notifications I had won my bets, and I didn't believe it.

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on November 07, 2015, 12:44:36 am
Tallied it up finally.....

22-15-3 NCAA (60%)

WAS 20-9-3 before Will hit me with the voodoo doodoo

I'm sure someone can top that


Dude, that's 69% before my jinx on you. That's a killer rate, and the one after isn't so bad either.

So far this year I've jinxed you on college and killed a whole Sunday of Jeff's by tailing his picks. I'm the pick voodoo master.

This weeks picks:
Georgia -16.5
Penn St -1.5
Memphis -10
Utah +2
Az St +2

Edit: I added an in-game line of:
Duke +350 ML
Duke +10.5
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on November 07, 2015, 01:09:55 pm
Dukies getting destroyed.

That Miami game must have just destroyed them. This is one of the worst games I've seen for a Cutcliffe QB, and NC is just having a field day through the air. I'm trying to find live betting lines to buy back my mistake.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WILL CLINTON

Haven't been able to correct my mistake in the Duke game, so I'm adding:

Houston -8
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

SPAL

Quit chasing. Nothing good comes from chasing.

DadVader1

Congrats on NC State, and THANKS for sharing! 

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: DadVader1 on November 07, 2015, 03:44:48 pm
Congrats on NC State, and THANKS for sharing! 


Thanks.   Can't believe Penn ST Effed me again.
Let's make some waves.

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on November 07, 2015, 02:30:28 pm
Quit chasing. Nothing good comes from chasing.

Had this conversation with myself when I almost took a Duke live line of +34.5, and Duke 2nd half line. I had been eyeing Houston but should have left it alone.

To be honest though, I'm still on cloud 9 from that Arkansas ending and not even focusing on my 1-5 day.


Just going to take my lumps today.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

HawgLife4Eva

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on November 07, 2015, 07:55:30 pm
Had this conversation with myself when I almost took a Duke live line of +34.5, and Duke 2nd half line. I had been eyeing Houston but should have left it alone.

To be honest though, I'm still on cloud 9 from that Arkansas ending and not even focusing on my 1-5 day.


Just going to take my lumps today.

Lumps indeed. Jeez.

hogsanity

i am getting killed today and last night, but the hog win makes it all better
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

SPAL


Green_Lanternn

NFL bets

Taking Denver -5 vs Colts
Steelers -5 vs Raiders

onebadrubi

5 team parlay that won't hit but I will show it.

Steelers -5.5
Jets -7
Bills -2.5
Giants -2
Broncos -3

jkstock04

4-1 yesterday. Got suckered in on that Michigan State game with the majority of general public when I know better than to stay away from the "sure thing" bets.

Gonna push it a hair today in NFL:

Packers -3..3*
Reskins +14.5...2*
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

SPAL

4-0 yesterday.....I'll give it back today

Colts +4
Bucs +2

DadVader1

Eeked by again over the weekend at 7-6 for +3 units, making it 65-50-1 for +18 units ytd.  Nothing too exciting, but I'll take another week in the + column, try to learn from a few of my screw ups/lapses of discipline, crunch some more numbers, and try again next week.

Spikes

Quote from: DadVader1 on November 08, 2015, 03:15:58 pm
Eeked by again over the weekend at 7-6 for +3 units, making it 65-50-1 for +18 units ytd.  Nothing too exciting, but I'll take another week in the + column, try to learn from a few of my screw ups/lapses of discipline, crunch some more numbers, and try again next week.

Thanks for your picks and all the time you put into them. Anytime you end the week + is a good thing!!  Keep them coming and good luck
You only have one life, so you better enjoy it!

SPAL


Tuesday 0-1
Wednesday 0-1
Thursday 1-0
Friday 1-0
Saturday 4-0
Sunday 1-1

7-3 for the week

26-15 NCAA


widespreadsooie

Went 3-3 Saturday bringing me to 31-30 YTD. Won on OK St, Hogs, and SC. Losses with Tulsa, LSU (suckered), and Pitt.

widespreadsooie

Early early leans:

RUT +9.5 vs NEB
OU +3 @ BAY
COL +16 vs USC
CIN -17 vs TUL
IL +17 vs OSU
SC +7.5 vs FL
Stan -9 vs ORE
WA St +9.5 @ UCLA

SPAL


onebadrubi


DadVader1

Here's what I've done so far, 2 units each on:

Temple -3
Neb -9.5
S. Miss -7
Ok St. -13.5 (h)
GA So. -6.5
Mich St. -15
ULL +3
V. Tech +3.5
Utah -6

One unit on:

NIU -7

SPAL