Class rankings correlation to team results

[MJ2]

More and more whether you're talking recruiting or winning games Joe Kines was right when he said the SEC would slit your throat and drink the blood.    It's brutal.

[DukeOfPork]

Especially when you consider the fact that these services typically give a bump to kids recruited by guys like Saban or Meyer. When CBB starts making noise in the West I bet Arkansas recruits will start getting the same "bump"

You apparently don't actually pay attention to what is happening or you just choose to ignore unpleasant facts.

You talk as though Bielema got exactly who he wanted. 

These so called services are NOT better at evaluating talent than coaches. No way, no how.

If you paid attention, you would notice that the highly ranked players are also the players that the top coaches are going after. 

[Iamjacksleftnutt]

You apparently don't actually pay attention to what is happening or you just choose to ignore unpleasant facts.

You talk as though Bielema got exactly who he wanted. 

If you paid attention, you would notice that the highly ranked players are also the players that the top coaches are going after.

Not always... Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Did CBB offer D Crockett ? A four star guy ? No he did his own evaluation.

[DukeOfPork]

Not always... Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Did CBB offer D Crockett ? A four star guy ? No he did his own evaluation.

Crockett is a 3-star player with an unimpressive offer list.  Rivals is the only site that called him a 4-star.  Rivals is also the recruiting service that most recruitniks ignore.

No P5 school even offered him (besides Arizona State) until Mizzou (a desperate school that is having a horrible recruiting year) did a few weeks ago.  So Bielema is not alone in that evaluation.

[bphi11ips]

You apparently don't actually pay attention to what is happening or you just choose to ignore unpleasant facts.

You talk as though Bielema got exactly who he wanted. 

If you paid attention, you would notice that the highly ranked players are also the players that the top coaches are going after. 

Do you need a weather vane to know which way the wind blows? 

Surely you don't think Nick Saban waits for 247 to sort out the 3's from the 4's from the 5's.  Alabama recruited the best athletes long before the internet created a cottage industry of recruiting "experts".  Are recruiting services accurately sorting talent?  In the main, sure they are.  It's not rocket science.  But they are most accurate at the very top, and that is where the correlation between recruiting rankings and national championships come in.  Can you guess the Top 10?  Sure you can, with about 80% accuracy any given year. 

Arkansas is right where it has been historically as a football program.  Should we all be shocked?

[longpig]

Especially when you consider the fact that these services typically give a bump to kids recruited by guys like Saban or Meyer. When CBB starts making noise in the West I bet Arkansas recruits will start getting the same "bump"

These so called services are NOT better at evaluating talent than coaches. No way, no how.

Every player is judged by how many offers he has from competitive programs, in case you did't notice a couple in our class went from NA/2* to solid 3* immediately after accepting an offer from us though they had few or no other notable offers.  Agim kept his recruiting open a long time, got lots of offers and moved from a solid 4* to a 5*, Capps closed his recruiting early so he only has a handful of p5 offers and stayed a solid 4*.   Bielema is respected as a talent evaluator so any kid we offer will immediately become a solid 3*, after a few more competitive p5 offers (Guidry) he'll become a 4*.

[DukeOfPork]

Do you need a weather vane to know which way the wind blows? 

Surely you don't think Nick Saban waits for 247 to sort out the 3's from the 4's from the 5's.  Alabama recruited the best athletes long before the internet created a cottage industry of recruiting "experts".  Are recruiting services accurately sorting talent?  In the main, sure they are.  It's not rocket science.  But they are most accurate at the very top, and that is where the correlation between recruiting rankings and national championships come in.  Can you guess the Top 10?  Sure you can, with about 80% accuracy any given year. 

Arkansas is right where it has been historically as a football program.  Should we all be shocked?

I think that the top coaches and the recruiting services are arriving at the same assessment of the best players.  And I think that the recruiting services are re-calibrating their evaluations based upon how many offers from top coaches the players are receiving. 

Nothing is shocking about any of this.

[TNRazorbacker]

It's a simple concept, really.  We don't get many stars, therefore stars don't matter.  Ironic that the prospects that get by far the most attention around here are the highly rated ones...Agim, Whaley, Porter, Cleveland, Fulton, etc...  And if you just look at our recent history, the players that we recognize as the stars of the team were, by and large, the higher rated kids...DMac, Jones, Mallett, Knile, Adams, JWill, AC, Henry, Kirkland, Ragnow, etc...  It's no coincidence.  Are there exceptions?  Absolutely...Winston, Batman, Jamal Anderson, JC Watts, etc...  But those are the exceptions.

Now that said, I think most everybody looks at the offer sheet first to gauge a prospect, but it just so happens that, by and large, the offer sheet correlates to the number of stars.  We often just speak in terms of stars, because it's easier to do so.  Are they the be all end all?  Heck no.  But the life blood of a program, any program, is talent.  Talent is priority #1.  Then you need excellent coaching to make that talent perform.

Great post and spot on. The best part of that article is the explanation of statistics. I very often see statements made by people who obviously have no idea how to interpret statistical correlation, throwing out anectdotes about the low rated outliers. Of course there are exceptions. Statistical correlation is not meant to make definite statements about an individual case, but assign statistical probability based on trends in a population. Generally the larger the population the more this holds true as the outliers have less impact.

This is clearly what you see in recruiting. The more highly rated players you recruit over time the higher your odds of winning. Is this the only factor- of course not. But it is clearly a huge one. As access to information continues to increase and evaluation methods are refined its my bet that this correlation will increase with time.

[wildhogman]

You apparently don't actually pay attention to what is happening or you just choose to ignore unpleasant facts.

You talk as though Bielema got exactly who he wanted. 

If you paid attention, you would notice that the highly ranked players are also the players that the top coaches are going after. 

all that tells me is the services look at recruit A and say "ohhhh, bama florida ol piss texas USC OHst and many othrs offered him,, he MUST be 5 star, Boom 5 stars. Then they look at recruit B and say oh, only Toledo arkst north texas and Baylor offered. Must be a 3 star or 2.  They don't actually watch film of thousands of senior high school football players. They too busy eating frito pie

[HogNDas]

all that tells me is the services look at recruit A and say "ohhhh, bama florida ol piss texas USC OHst and many othrs offered him,, he MUST be 5 star, Boom 5 stars. Then they look at recruit B and say oh, only Toledo arkst north texas and Baylor offered. Must be a 3 star or 2.  They don't actually watch film of thousands of senior high school football players. They too busy eating frito pie

[I think you got that in reverse order....the services rank them and THEN Bama, Ole Pi$$, OH St, USC & others offer them a scholly....]

[HogNDas]

all that tells me is the services look at recruit A and say "ohhhh, bama florida ol piss texas USC OHst and many othrs offered him,, he MUST be 5 star, Boom 5 stars. Then they look at recruit B and say oh, only Toledo arkst north texas and Baylor offered. Must be a 3 star or 2.  They don't actually watch film of thousands of senior high school football players. They too busy eating frito pie

[I think you got that in reverse order....the services rank them and THEN Bama, Ole Pi$$, OH St, USC & others offer them a scholly....]

[PLUS, they must be pretty damn accurate cause it is Bama, OH St winning the NC's....and NOT the ones chocked full of 3*'s....]

[wildhogman]

all that tells me is the services look at recruit A and say "ohhhh, bama florida ol piss texas USC OHst and many othrs offered him,, he MUST be 5 star, Boom 5 stars. Then they look at recruit B and say oh, only Toledo arkst north texas and Baylor offered. Must be a 3 star or 2.  They don't actually watch film of thousands of senior high school football players. They too busy eating frito pie

[I think you got that in reverse order....the services rank them and THEN Bama, Ole Pi$$, OH St, USC & others offer them a scholly....]

[PLUS, they must be pretty damn accurate cause it is Bama, OH St winning the NC's....and NOT the ones chocked full of 3*'s....]

which just goes to prove my oint. The services watch to see who gets offers from where. Bama recruit? must be a 5 star. Bug tussle U? no rating. Oh wait, hold the presses, bama offered 2 months later and walah,, he is suddenly a high 4 star, maybe 5 star. Depends on how strong the commit to bama.  You really think Otis kirk watches film on allllllllllll those high school seniors?  Frito pie and get on the net checking twitter and message boards to see who got offered today. But please, carry on in your never never land. Tinkerbell may even do a flyby for you

edit:,, Oh and by the way. how can your theory be correct when they haven't gotten a full compsite of 2017 recruits and ratings and yet bama and everyone else is already offering recruits?  Crystal ball perhaps?  Madam Zoey's fortune telling services? She picks the brain of sabin in the future and tells Otis and the rest of the guru's who will get offers.
Heck some schools are already offering 2018 grads and I am fairly certain no one has any of them rated. If they do,, your welcome to show me. Just post a 24/7 link

[ricepig]

https://twitter.com/BruceFeldmanCFB/status/697860647481049090