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How surprised will you be?

Started by lakecityhog, February 14, 2018, 06:16:43 pm

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Al Boarland

February 16, 2018, 06:09:53 pm #50 Last Edit: February 18, 2018, 05:53:41 am by Al Boarland
Quote from: urkillnmesmalls on February 16, 2018, 05:01:54 pm
By tons...how much is that??  Tons like...the next Bama in hiding, or tons like...enough to beat TAMU, and at least hold Auburn to under 40, maybe?  Because it's hard to believe it's better than about top 30 based on our previous recruiting classes, coupled with the more recent one that was doomed from the word go with the bad timing.   

This. The whole CBB era was based on coaching up the diamonds in the rough. We snagged a few good ones and a lot of guys with few offers or non-comittable offers from other big programs. The recruiting rankings tell the tale. There isn't TONS of talent. Tons of talent would mean 5 years of top 15/10 classes. That's a situation where you can step in and have immediate success.

lakecityhog

Guys, this talent thing is so bent out of shape that it is ridiculous! Granted the talent disparity between Arkansas and Alabama and Clemson is a pretty wide gap right now, but the biggest gap is DEPTH not starting talent. We have a big injury and it HURTS, they have a big injury and it is "next"!

Let's compare us to Auburn, a ton of people here seem to think that they are sooo much more talented than us. Right now the all-time series with Auburn stands at 15-11-1 in Auburn's favor, a 4 game advantage. Take out the 5 years of BB and the series is 11-10-1 for Auburn, basically a wash!

Take LSU, they have a rather large lead overall since the series started in 1901, but if you look at the SEC records we trail only by 6 games at 16-10. The Saban years and shortly after killed us, they were competing for National Championships then. But, we were VERY competitive in a lot of the losses.

Yes, stars matter, talent matters. But, the difference in a 4* and a 5* really isn't that much and a 4* coached well and put in the right system can overcome that slight difference in a 4*and 5* rating. And, believe it or not sometimes that rating is actually backwards, the 4* rated kid is really the better football player.

How many of you really believe that UCF has more talent then Auburn? That Peach Bowl was a GREAT example of coaching overcoming a talent disparity! I will be the first to say that Central Florida had some really good players, but not better than Auburn. UCF had the better coach!

We have plenty of talent to win in the SEC, maybe not enough to win the SEC, but enough to compete. And, I think that competing is all that most of us really want. If we compete year-in and year-out we will finally catch a couple of breaks and possibly win it!

 

urkillnmesmalls

Quote from: lakecityhog on February 17, 2018, 09:58:38 am
Guys, this talent thing is so bent out of shape that it is ridiculous! Granted the talent disparity between Arkansas and Alabama and Clemson is a pretty wide gap right now, but the biggest gap is DEPTH not starting talent. We have a big injury and it HURTS, they have a big injury and it is "next"!

Let's compare us to Auburn, a ton of people here seem to think that they are sooo much more talented than us. Right now the all-time series with Auburn stands at 15-11-1 in Auburn's favor, a 4 game advantage. Take out the 5 years of BB and the series is 11-10-1 for Auburn, basically a wash!

Take LSU, they have a rather large lead overall since the series started in 1901, but if you look at the SEC records we trail only by 6 games at 16-10. The Saban years and shortly after killed us, they were competing for National Championships then. But, we were VERY competitive in a lot of the losses.

Yes, stars matter, talent matters. But, the difference in a 4* and a 5* really isn't that much and a 4* coached well and put in the right system can overcome that slight difference in a 4*and 5* rating. And, believe it or not sometimes that rating is actually backwards, the 4* rated kid is really the better football player.

How many of you really believe that UCF has more talent then Auburn? That Peach Bowl was a GREAT example of coaching overcoming a talent disparity! I will be the first to say that Central Florida had some really good players, but not better than Auburn. UCF had the better coach!

We have plenty of talent to win in the SEC, maybe not enough to win the SEC, but enough to compete. And, I think that competing is all that most of us really want. If we compete year-in and year-out we will finally catch a couple of breaks and possibly win it!

We see this year after year.  I'm guilty of it as well.  But...history doesn't lie.  Can you be really good without top 10 recruiting classes.  Yep.  Can you win it all?  Not lately. 

Everything you wrote is from the perspective of overcoming a disadvantage.  Uphill battle.  Underdog.  However you want to characterize it, you're being asked to do more with less. 

If we can do it with recruiting classes ranked from 25-30, then we're going to buck the current trend pretty substantially. 

I think the Auburn loss was as much about lack of motivation by the players as anything else.  They overcame adversity during the season, and they just ran out of gas at the end when they fizzled following beating Bama and UGA.   
I've never wanted a Hog coach to be successful more than I do for Pittman.  He's one of the good guys.

rtr

February 17, 2018, 10:52:25 pm #53 Last Edit: February 17, 2018, 11:06:29 pm by rtr
Reallly i will not be surprised at all.  Nothing earth shattering here from the op.
The more smites the more intelligent I get.

Pork Twain

Not even a little surprised.  The talent was there, the coaching was not.
"It is better to be an optimist and proven wrong, than a pessimist and proven right." ~Pork Twain

https://www.facebook.com/groups/sweetmemes/

Al Boarland

Quote from: urkillnmesmalls on February 17, 2018, 10:24:44 pm
We see this year after year.  I'm guilty of it as well.  But...history doesn't lie.  Can you be really good without top 10 recruiting classes.  Yep.  Can you win it all?  Not lately. 

Everything you wrote is from the perspective of overcoming a disadvantage.  Uphill battle.  Underdog.  However you want to characterize it, you're being asked to do more with less. 

If we can do it with recruiting classes ranked from 25-30, then we're going to buck the current trend pretty substantially. 

I think the Auburn loss was as much about lack of motivation by the players as anything else.  They overcame adversity during the season, and they just ran out of gas at the end when they fizzled following beating Bama and UGA.

Good points. I think LCH is saying that, on occasion, we can sneak up and upset some teams. The error in his posts is he goes too far back in time with series records. He throws out the CBB era which also happens to include a good chunk of when the SEC concentrated high-end talent to the top half of the conference. The gap between the haves and have nots widened over the last 8 years or so.

urkillnmesmalls

Quote from: Al Boarland on February 18, 2018, 06:00:42 am
Good points. I think LCH is saying that, on occasion, we can sneak up and upset some teams. The error in his posts is he goes too far back in time with series records. He throws out the CBB era which also happens to include a good chunk of when the SEC concentrated high-end talent to the top half of the conference. The gap between the haves and have nots widened over the last 8 years or so.

I didn't think there were any errors in his post??  My position is that I agree, but it's always coming from the perspective that we're going to have to play at a level that is well above where we rank with recruiting.  That's just a fact, until/unless we can jump up substantially in the recruiting numbers. 

I consider beating Ole Miss with the HH lateral a big upset.  They had beaten Bama, and were headed for the SECCG.  We also managed to nip LSU as well.  So..we had a few "rise up" games even under CBB. 

It's just a mindset issue for me.  I WANT to believe that we'll somehow overcome the odds and rise up, but then when you look at the statistics...it's literally close to impossible.  The rankings don't lie, and it's become almost a prerequisite for winning the NC.  So...if you're a recruit, you're coming here knowing that NC is a longshot.  What makes that significant?  There are a handful of SEC schools that are likely on the same kids, and they can boast about their high recruiting, which is a huge indicator of the potential for winning a NC.  So...it's a recruiting advantage for them, and disadvantage for us. 

We'll see how it pans out.  Right now...the uptick by Texas and TAMU is not going to help at all.  Hopefully, Morris will still manage to pull some top talent from TX.  We'll see....
I've never wanted a Hog coach to be successful more than I do for Pittman.  He's one of the good guys.

HoggyCat

Any coach other than bert last year (yes, even JLS) wins 8 games last year. The players weren't the problem.
I'm only responsible for what I say, not how you perceive it.

rljjr

Quote from: razorbackfaninar on February 15, 2018, 04:00:15 pm
When I was a kid I wanted a guitar really bad.  I asked for one for Christmas.  What I had envisioned was an awesome electric guitar, but what I got was a used classical acoustic guitar.  I had assumed that when you picked up an electric guitar you could automatically play sweet rock and roll.  Since my mom had bought this stupid looking old lady guitar I figured that it must be the guitars fault and not the fact that I had no training and no musical ability.

That guitar sat in the corner of my room for probably 10 years. When I was a senior in HS I had a friend over and he saw it and said " hey i didn't know you played too" I told him that the guitar was broken and it had never worked right. He picked it up, tuned it for a few minutes and in no time a guitar that I couldn't get anything out of was playing real, recognizable even beautiful music.

I get the feeling that this football season may be a lot like that.  Somebody coming in that actually knows how to do something with the crap you had relegated to the corner and thought was basically useless. I think even if the line up is the same or relatively so, you are going to hear some very different tunes being played.         

This is why I enjoy Hogville. Brilliant response that everyone can relate with. It's early in the year, but this is going to be a finalist for Post Of The Year at the annual POTY's. We should have POTY's.

Vantage 8 dude

Quote from: razorbackfaninar on February 15, 2018, 04:00:15 pm
When I was a kid I wanted a guitar really bad.  I asked for one for Christmas.  What I had envisioned was an awesome electric guitar, but what I got was a used classical acoustic guitar.  I had assumed that when you picked up an electric guitar you could automatically play sweet rock and roll.  Since my mom had bought this stupid looking old lady guitar I figured that it must be the guitars fault and not the fact that I had no training and no musical ability.

That guitar sat in the corner of my room for probably 10 years. When I was a senior in HS I had a friend over and he saw it and said " hey i didn't know you played too" I told him that the guitar was broken and it had never worked right. He picked it up, tuned it for a few minutes and in no time a guitar that I couldn't get anything out of was playing real, recognizable even beautiful music.

I get the feeling that this football season may be a lot like that.  Somebody coming in that actually knows how to do something with the crap you had relegated to the corner and thought was basically useless. I think even if the line up is the same or relatively so, you are going to hear some very different tunes being played.       
Well thought out, brilliant analogy. +100. Yep, sometimes it's not such much the instrument (players); at times it's about the person strumming the strings (coaches).

Al Boarland

Quote from: urkillnmesmalls on February 18, 2018, 11:47:52 pm
I didn't think there were any errors in his post??  My position is that I agree, but it's always coming from the perspective that we're going to have to play at a level that is well above where we rank with recruiting.  That's just a fact, until/unless we can jump up substantially in the recruiting numbers. 

I consider beating Ole Miss with the HH lateral a big upset.  They had beaten Bama, and were headed for the SECCG.  We also managed to nip LSU as well.  So..we had a few "rise up" games even under CBB. 

It's just a mindset issue for me.  I WANT to believe that we'll somehow overcome the odds and rise up, but then when you look at the statistics...it's literally close to impossible.  The rankings don't lie, and it's become almost a prerequisite for winning the NC.  So...if you're a recruit, you're coming here knowing that NC is a longshot.  What makes that significant?  There are a handful of SEC schools that are likely on the same kids, and they can boast about their high recruiting, which is a huge indicator of the potential for winning a NC.  So...it's a recruiting advantage for them, and disadvantage for us. 

We'll see how it pans out.  Right now...the uptick by Texas and TAMU is not going to help at all.  Hopefully, Morris will still manage to pull some top talent from TX.  We'll see....

I think the strategy is the same as it was under CBB. Get the diamonds in the rough. We aren't going to take players away from the top schools in Texas. Morris just has to use his connections to get the guys they miss on.

12247

Someone mentioned top 30 at seasons.  How many would be totally happy with the final ranking having us 30th.  I would be elated.  How about going 7-6 with a minor bowl win.  Again, elated.

We are where Nutt left us only worse.  Nutt would win games against decent teams because that team that day had zero respect for us and we accidently swelled up and played our best that day.  I believe for the next year or 2, thats how we might beat a much better team then we are. 

Vantage 8 dude

Quote from: Al Boarland on February 19, 2018, 02:07:07 pm
I think the strategy is the same as it was under CBB. Get the diamonds in the rough. We aren't going to take players away from the top schools in Texas. Morris just has to use his connections to get the guys they miss on.
Yeah, great attitude....I honestly hope that Morris doesn't feel that way. That's the spirit....go against the Texas schools hanging our heads 'cause everyone knows we CAN'T possibly ever possibly sign any of those top recruits we're after. All I can say is thank GOD you aren't on our recruiting staff. You'd be beaten before you ever made an offer.  :puke: :puke:

 

31to6

Quote from: Al Boarland on February 19, 2018, 02:07:07 pm
I think the strategy is the same as it was under CBB. Get the diamonds in the rough. We aren't going to take players away from the top schools in Texas. Morris just has to use his connections to get the guys they miss on.
I don't think so. They are offering and getting interest from a lot of top prospects.

Will it work? Remains to be seen, of course.

Will they have to settle for some plan B guys? Probably.

But they are targeting the best players in our footprint.

They keep talking about parallels to Clemson. They didn't turn them around by settling for off the radar players.

Hoggish1

Where's the poll for this? I will be very excited regardless since there will be a whole new mindset inside any player that makes it into the squad of 22, not to mention they will be physically transformed...