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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

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McKdaddy

Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

hawgmasta


 

WILL CLINTON

There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

SPAL


McKdaddy

Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

hawgmasta

Well I'm feeling pretty dumb about now, FSU looks bad for all the hype they were getting.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: hawgmasta on September 05, 2016, 08:25:14 pm
Well I'm feeling pretty dumb about now, FSU looks bad for all the hype they were getting.

Easy grasshopper
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

gotyacovered

it was a weekend of dogs for me... and anyone who knows me personally, knows i love dogs and money lines and didnt have one money line bet!!! shame on me.

South alabama +31 outright winner
Wisconsin +14 outright winner
BYU +1 outright winner
Texas +4.5 outright winner

my loser was kstate/stanford over... kstate qb was a disappointment and on top of that he got knocked outta game... twice.

only thing that has me hot and bothered (so far) this week is south florida... and its pretty much a scheduling thing... NIU plays tripple OT game at 7200' and until 3:35am (assuming their 'football' day started at noon... they were in football mode for a really long time) then fly back across time zones only to turn around in a couple days and head to Florida to play in 90+ temps with high humidity.
You are what you tolerate.

DadVader1

Like the last few years, I'll only count "my" picks in keeping track of % & $, and won't count my tails of Jeff and others.  Spreadsheet picks went 2 for 3 for 67% & +1/8 unit.  Still way too soon to do much with the power rating systems, but they're off to a decent start.  Of the 70+ power rating systems that I track, 11 won ats in week 1, with 2 hitting at around 60%.  Those numbers should come down over the next few weeks, but I expect 6 or 7 to beat the spread over the season.  In general, in week 1, road teams and dogs both hit at or around 53% and road dogs hit at about 56%.  The first three weeks are usually pretty screwy, so don't put much trust in those trends holding up.

hogsanity

my early leans this week are:

louisville -14.5
ohio st -29
umass +16
oki st -21
SO AL +13
Oregon -24.5

Wont play all of these, but those are what I am looking at right now.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

hawgmasta

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on September 05, 2016, 11:10:43 pm
Easy grasshopper

You got me I overreacted; actually pretty much quit watching until my buddy called me after FSU took the lead. Patience is a virtue.

 

hawgmasta

Quote from: DadVader1 link=topic=419577.msg10420730#msg10420730 date=147317908
The first three weeks are usually pretty screwy, so don't put much trust in those trends holding up.
/quote]

Yeah sometimes the first few weeks I seriously just randomly pick all the games within a touchdown spread. It's usually better than my thought out and over analyzed guesses.

hogsanity

Outside of a few teams like Wake and Mizzu, with the state of defense in college football, I'd take the over in just about every game played.

Did anyone ever think they would see a time when FSU would give up points like they did last night, or ND would give up points like they did Sunday.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

gotyacovered

Quote from: hogsanity on September 06, 2016, 01:05:03 pm
Outside of a few teams like Wake and Mizzu, with the state of defense in college football, I'd take the over in just about every game played.

Did anyone ever think they would see a time when FSU would give up points like they did last night, or ND would give up points like they did Sunday.

And BYU... Or penn st/Pitt (who play this week).

I love unders and dogs, generally speaking. But it does seem that way... Not sure if perception is reality though. Wonder if it'll become like the NFL... As I understand it, they actually build in points bc the over is so popular.
You are what you tolerate.

hawgmasta

Quote from: hogsanity on September 06, 2016, 01:05:03 pm
Outside of a few teams like Wake and Mizzu, with the state of defense in college football, I'd take the over in just about every game played.

Did anyone ever think they would see a time when FSU would give up points like they did last night, or ND would give up points like they did Sunday.

Yeah if you have two good offenses and they're not playing Alabama. Then I would say take the over 90% of the time.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

OnYourToes

Quote from: OnYourToes on August 30, 2016, 03:38:09 pm
Lines I'm looking at now, some I'm playing, some just looking.  A lot of Home Opening plays that look tasty, some based on coaching story lines, some based on travel.

Vandy-4.5 V South Carolin - Loss

Oregon St +13 @ Minn - Won

Stanford - 15.5 v KState - Loss

Michigan - 40 v Hawaii - Hard lean - Ended up playing - Won

Ohio St -27.5 v Bowling Green - Hard lean - Played Won

Washington - 26.5 v  Rutgers - Hard lean- Played Won

Alabama -11.5 v USC - Won

Clemson -7.5 @ Auburn - Playing - Won

Notre Dame -3.5 @ Texas - Hard lean - Couldn't pull the trigger on this one, good thing too.

Ole Miss +4.5 v Florida St - Interesting - Played Ole Miss, and it was a very wonderful first half.  Then they started the second half. . . Loss


My first weekend results
Won 6 games
Lost 3 games

Good weekend!
Quote from: Fresh Legs on September 22, 2006, 09:56:48 am
Quote from: OnYourToes on September 22, 2006, 09:48:23 am
The wife's b-day was this past Tuesday, I got her a gift certifiacte for a message, she is going to redeem it Saturday, around 2:35ish.  I had it planned all along.  House to myself, game on, free to yell as loud as I can!!!!!

You sir are a genius!

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

On Yanks money line 67.00 to win 100 and over 9 for 100
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Went 5-3 on the week +32 units. Thank you TIDE
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Never do this, but on Da Ville -14 / 3 dimes. Bought the hook
Let's make some waves.

husker71

can somebody please find the thread from last season where MSM(??) was betting I think $500 per week against Arkansas and for Louisville.  Every week!!   It may have been $1000 each but anyway it was a classic thread maybe should be on the Mount Rushmore of threads

onebadrubi

Quote from: husker71 on September 06, 2016, 06:46:15 pm
can somebody please find the thread from last season where MSM(??) was betting I think $500 per week against Arkansas and for Louisville.  Every week!!   It may have been $1000 each but anyway it was a classic thread maybe should be on the Mount Rushmore of threads

I believe that was a few years back, but it stayed around somewhere. 

 

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: husker71 on September 06, 2016, 06:46:15 pm
can somebody please find the thread from last season where MSM(??) was betting I think $500 per week against Arkansas and for Louisville.  Every week!!   It may have been $1000 each but anyway it was a classic thread maybe should be on the Mount Rushmore of threads


MSM?
Let's make some waves.

onebadrubi

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on September 06, 2016, 09:30:21 pm

MSM?

He was a Bobby lovng jeff long hating poster awhile back that wanted nothing else except to see this program fail.  He got the ban hammer rather quick, but before he could leave swore to bet $500 on daville and 500 against Arkansas in every game. His record was AWFUK.

mckinneyhog5

2-0 for the year..
FSU -4 1/2 and over 57 1/2
Trying to pick one game a week and go heavy on a parlay.
Quote from: mckinneyhog5 on April 07, 2019, 10:29:55 pmGuys, we have hired the BEST coach that we could have hired. Musselman is gonna rock it here like we haven't seen since the early 90's. Just sit back and watch it unfold! We WILL be a nationally recognized program again soon.

hogsanity

People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

widespreadsooie

Quote from: onebadrubi on September 06, 2016, 11:56:28 pm
He was a Bobby lovng jeff long hating poster awhile back that wanted nothing else except to see this program fail.  He got the ban hammer rather quick, but before he could leave swore to bet $500 on daville and 500 against Arkansas in every game. His record was AWFUK.

It was two seasons ago. He was claiming to bet $500 every week on Auburn, Louisville, and whoever the Hogs were playing- no matter the line. He was down a ton by week 4 or 5 if he was telling the truth. Dude was being a fool.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: onebadrubi on September 06, 2016, 11:56:28 pm
He was a Bobby lovng jeff long hating poster awhile back that wanted nothing else except to see this program fail.  He got the ban hammer rather quick, but before he could leave swore to bet $500 on daville and 500 against Arkansas in every game. His record was AWFUK.


I am as most know a Bobby loving Long hater, and still am.  Got myself banned several times as most here know.  I simply thought as poor as petrino's decison making off the field was thay firing him was a worse decision.

I certainly dont want the program to fail, but i dont share the current optimsm most currently have.
Let's make some waves.

onebadrubi

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on September 07, 2016, 09:30:34 am

I am as most know a Bobby loving Long hater, and still am.  Got myself banned several times as most here know.  I simply thought as poor as petrino's decison making off the field was thay firing him was a worse decision.

I certainly dont want the program to fail, but i dont share the current optimsm most currently have.

Nothing wrong with your viewpoint either, but the msm dude was wanting it to fail to tell long I told you so. He was just a troll and if he wagered like he promised he absolutely lost his arse.

By the way, for the intentions of this thread, I think bielemas ats record is much better than Petrino's. Not that anyone would count such a record or anything.

WooPig90


onebadrubi


hogsanity

Quote from: WooPig90 on September 07, 2016, 11:33:18 am
Thoughts on Carolina -3 tomorrow?

IT looks so much like a sucker bet that maybe it isn't. Denver breaking in a new QB. Carolina wanting a measure of revenge.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

hawgmasta

Took middle Tennessee at +5.5 against vandy. Vandy doesn't look like they could score in a scrimmage. Middle is a solid team and will be amped.

onebadrubi

I look at Carolina just like the KC royals last year. They will be improved on offense and just as good on D. You don't think cam wants to face that D again? 

jkstock04

Quote from: WooPig90 on September 07, 2016, 11:33:18 am
Thoughts on Carolina -3 tomorrow?
Looks like the lemming bet to me. Not saying it won't hit but these are the types of lines that make me skeptical that Vegas wants even money on both sides and doesn't try and sucker people into something they know the general public doesn't. I haven't even looked but I'm going to assume 90% or more of the public will be on Carolina -3.

Like I said, not saying it won't hit but I've seen that movie a few times and usually I'm on the wrong side of it.

On the stat side of it and closer look I actually think there is a stronger argument for Denver +3. Everyone is making a huge deal about this no name qb and that being a deal breaker...but the fact is last year the Broncos quietly won the super bowl with overall poor qb play. They were worst in the league with 23 interceptions and had the 2nd worst rating. This new guy probably can't get much worse.

Broncos are still loaded on defense and have all of that badass secondary coming back. The panthers O-line got embarrassed in super bowl and I won't be surprised if they struggle again tonight...a lot of people say the thin air in Denver affects the visiting teams.

We'll see. Games that look like obvious locks I'm always skeptical of. Like I said mainly because I've been on the wrong side so many times and I've learned my lesson...that there is usually more than meets the eye.

Just checked, Looks like my book has the juice on Denver at -120 and Carolina +100. Shocker lol





Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Not touching the nfl game tonight. If someone put a gun to.my head i would.play Broncos +3
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on September 06, 2016, 06:20:48 pm
Never do this, but on Da Ville -14 / 3 dimes. Bought the hook


By never do this i meant bet a game that far in advance
Let's make some waves.

DadVader1

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on September 09, 2016, 08:06:30 am

By never do this i meant bet a game that far in advance

I go back and forth on this.  College-age kids doing stupid college-age kid stuff adds some risk to wagering early in the week.  On the other hand, from my reading, it's my understanding that lines are generally softer early in the week, and by Saturday morning you are competing against investors with IT departments. 

The data from thepredictiontracker.com includes opening lines and current lines.  I hope to find time at some point this season to run some numbers to see how my picks fare against early lines vs. late lines.

gotyacovered

i bet early a lot...

South Florida -14 vs NIU... It's pretty much a schedule thing... NIU plays triple OT game at 7200' and until 3:35am (assuming their 'football' day started at noon... they were in football mode for a really long time) then fly back across time zones only to turn around in a couple days and head to Florida to play in 90+ temps with high humidity. body clocks are all screwed up with less recover time. now, its sitting at -15 and the closer it gets the more south florida will get bet (IMO) bc they are (were-last year) a trendy pick.

my other game i wanted to play early in the week was washington st... i didnt... they were sitting on 12.5/+350 and i had thoughts of 13/375. it is a late game and it has been my experience that these lines will hold pretty steady and the faves will get hammered late by the pub. now the line is sitting on 10.5/+320... didnt expect that AT ALL and seeing 12.5 is unlikely and the +13/+375 i was hoping for 4 days ago is a pipe dream.

i played the bears +6 a month ago when the jj watt news broke (out at least first 2 reg season games). the books moved slow so i took advantage... the line got as low as +3... looked brilliant until wednesday when ed werder was reporting jj watt will play week 1. now (last i saw) lines back to where it started.

beating the books is largely being able to take advantage of market conditions. the people who i personally know (not touts selling picks) who actually make money gambling, know when to make a move, or not... and when the screw up (see my bears bet) they know how to buy back (hedge).

anyone looked at air force -18? georgia st got smoked in the 2nd half against BALL STATE. i think AF will jump out in front and Georgia St. will lay down for 2nd half prepping for the beating that will follow next weekend (playing wisconsin). also, noteworthy... AF is OFF next week.
You are what you tolerate.

WooPig90

Luckily took Broncos +3 but pushed on  the over. Looking at the louisville game today, not sure on -15

Green_Lanternn

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on September 09, 2016, 08:06:30 am

By never do this i meant bet a game that far in advance

Jeff, would you still like this pick at -15?

WooPig90


jkstock04

Took Louisville -14 for 5 units got it locked in this morning.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

Green_Lanternn


SPAL

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on September 05, 2016, 11:17:02 pm
Just quit

I know right? This has been a horrible start.

Trying to make some back tonight....Louisville -17/o65 parlay

Otis

Just went to reload my bovada account and transaction didn't go thru. Worked fine with the same credit card last year. Any ideas on how to deposit now? Would rather not pay the fees to wire the money.

Green_Lanternn

Quote from: Otis on September 09, 2016, 06:37:38 pm
Just went to reload my bovada account and transaction didn't go thru. Worked fine with the same credit card last year. Any ideas on how to deposit now? Would rather not pay the fees to wire the money.


Call credit card company and let them know you are making an international transaction and it should go through.  Take off the international hold for the next day or two and you should be able to have it go through

WILL CLINTON

There is no sacred ground for the conquered.