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Huge change in Vegas line

Started by JayHog, October 03, 2017, 10:44:55 am

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JayHog

The line opened with South Carolina as 2.5 point favorites.  Evidently a ton of money has been pouring in on Arkansas, and now Arkansas is a 2.5 point favorite. That's a 5 point swing in the line, which is a huge swing considering there has been no announcement that their starting QB is out or anything of that nature.
So smart money is saying Arkansas. What say ye?

oldrazorband

Did anyone see the clip of their QB getting up all wobbly after a hit last week?  I wouldn't doubt he has a concussion.

http://www.12up.com/posts/5617787-video-south-carolina-qb-keeps-playing-after-getting-obvious-concussion?a_aid=36659

 

007 License To Squeal

Are you sure?  When I checked early on, the Hogs were -2.5....
******Proud Member of Hogville.net since May 22, 2003, 08:17:38 PM*******

onebadrubi

Line opened as Arkansas a Favorite, ranging from a -1 to a -2 at most books.

jkstock04

I've seen -2 or -2.5 since opening.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

The NewEra

South Carolina's offensive line is in shambles.  Put some heat on those q.b.'s of SC and it could get ugly.

rhames

SC was a 2.5 favorite early Sunday 
"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

PorkRinds

Quote from: The NewEra on October 03, 2017, 11:01:53 am
South Carolina's offensive line is in shambles.  Put some heat on those q.b.'s of SC and it could get ugly.

I feel like this could be said of us as well.

007 License To Squeal

Quote from: rhames on October 03, 2017, 11:02:15 am
SC was a 2.5 favorite early Sunday 

Not when I check early Sunday...  Hogs were -2.5.
******Proud Member of Hogville.net since May 22, 2003, 08:17:38 PM*******

The NewEra

Quote from: PorkRinds on October 03, 2017, 11:10:17 am
I feel like this could be said of us as well.

I see ours improving.  Theirs is getting worse due to injuries.

onebadrubi

Quote from: rhames on October 03, 2017, 11:02:15 am
SC was a 2.5 favorite early Sunday

Every line tracking website shows Hogs opened as favorite.  Where are you guys seeing SC was opening as a favorite?

rhames

Quote from: 007 License To Squeal on October 03, 2017, 11:13:30 am
Not when I check early Sunday...  Hogs were -2.5.


Must have been looking at different places then.
"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

mclyte

http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/odds/line-history/792363

Here's a link to the line movement. Most opened as Hogs -2. Some books opened with So. Car -1.5.

 

Fan1958

Quote from: JayHog on October 03, 2017, 10:44:55 am
The line opened with South Carolina as 2.5 point favorites.  Evidently a ton of money has been pouring in on Arkansas, and now Arkansas is a 2.5 point favorite. That's a 5 point swing in the line, which is a huge swing considering there has been no announcement that their starting QB is out or anything of that nature.
So smart money is saying Arkansas. What say ye?

That folks who pay attention to betting lines, relative to the line indicating which team will win or lose, are desperate for anything that makes them feel better.
Conservatives have always proudly proclaimed themselves to be conservative.  Liberals are now "Progressives"?  Must be terrible to have to hide what you really are.

I like smites.  That's how I know I'm really pissing off the "Progressives".

rhames

"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

onebadrubi


onebadrubi

Quote from: rhames on October 03, 2017, 11:23:29 am
https://www.google.com/amp/s/247sports.com/college/south-carolina/Bolt/Major-betting-line-change-for-Arkansas-South-Carolina-108371032/Amp

I have a hard time completely believing that article.  It says huge public money came pouring in on sunday, well public money CAN'T bet on sunday usually.  Most books don't release lines to general public till very Monday or tuesday.  Vegas books themselves even give certain "sharp" players lines early and don't open up the windows to those lines till extremely late.  Again, public doesn't place wagers or usually have the ability to place wagers on sunday for the upcoming saturday.

rhames

Quote from: onebadrubi on October 03, 2017, 11:28:13 am
I have a hard time completely believing that article.  It says huge public money came pouring in on sunday, well public money CAN'T bet on sunday usually.  Most books don't release lines to general public till very Monday or tuesday.  Vegas books themselves even give certain "sharp" players lines early and don't open up the windows to those lines till extremely late.  Again, public doesn't place wagers or usually have the ability to place wagers on sunday for the upcoming saturday.


I caught that too but I saw Sunday morning it was SC -2.5

"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

dhizzle

Quote from: oldrazorband on October 03, 2017, 10:52:00 am
Did anyone see the clip of their QB getting up all wobbly after a hit last week?  I wouldn't doubt he has a concussion.

http://www.12up.com/posts/5617787-video-south-carolina-qb-keeps-playing-after-getting-obvious-concussion?a_aid=36659

He was like, "witch way did he go George." He pulled that off really well, he woke up and realized he was playing a football game.


widespreadsooie

Quote from: Fan1958 on October 03, 2017, 11:23:12 am
That folks who pay attention to betting lines, relative to the line indicating which team will win or lose, are desperate for anything that makes them feel better.


Lol. The fact that SC flipped from a favorite to underdog as soon as the line came out is a very good indicator that smart money is all over the Hogs. Smart money is called smart money for a reason.

I saw SC open at -1.5 FWIW.

Inhogswetrust

Quote from: widespreadsooie on October 03, 2017, 12:12:15 pm
Lol. The fact that SC flipped from a favorite to underdog as soon as the line came out is a very good indicator that smart money is all over the Hogs. Smart money is called smart money for a reason.

I saw SC open at -1.5 FWIW.

Smart people don't bet low point spreads................................
If I'm going to cheer players and coaches in victory, I damn sure ought to be man enough to stand with them in defeat.

"Why some people are so drawn to the irrational is something that has always puzzled me" - James Randi

lasthog

Sorry guys,  I didn't mean to move the line, but I believe. ;)

widespreadsooie

Quote from: Inhogswetrust on October 03, 2017, 12:13:49 pm
Smart people don't bet low point spreads................................

You mind explaining that one?

 


onebadrubi

Quote from: widespreadsooie on October 03, 2017, 12:37:32 pm
You mind explaining that one?

I assume he's trying to say they'd just take moneyline?

Many people believe that taking a ML pays off much better when a spread is less than 3, either way

onebadrubi

Quote from: jkstock04 on October 03, 2017, 12:42:16 pm
Nice find...guess I stand corrected.

Comments in that article make me question the validity of that article.  It also does t indicate where USC opened as a fav

Inhogswetrust

Quote from: widespreadsooie on October 03, 2017, 12:37:32 pm
You mind explaining that one?

IF the point spread is close then the winner is more in doubt. That being said it also isn't smart to bet real high point spreads because it becomes more difficult for the super favorite to cover. Point spreads are made to equalize money bet so more people will bet. At least those are my theories. If you have better ones' please share!
If I'm going to cheer players and coaches in victory, I damn sure ought to be man enough to stand with them in defeat.

"Why some people are so drawn to the irrational is something that has always puzzled me" - James Randi

twistitup

How you gonna win when you ain't right within?

Here I am again mixing misery and gin....

widespreadsooie

Quote from: Inhogswetrust on October 03, 2017, 12:46:29 pm
IF the point spread is close then the winner is more in doubt. That being said it also isn't smart to bet real high point spreads because it becomes more difficult for the super favorite to cover. Point spreads are made to equalize money bet so more people will bet. At least those are my theories. If you have better ones' please share!

So you're saying there's no such thing as a smart bettor? Look, some people do this for a living. They're gonna hammer a spread at the open if they feel it can be taken advantage of before it moves.

onebadrubi

Quote from: twistitup on October 03, 2017, 12:46:55 pm


It hurts your trolling that if thats true, public has bet hogs to being a road fave

Inhogswetrust

Quote from: widespreadsooie on October 03, 2017, 12:51:29 pm
So you're saying there's no such thing as a smart bettor? Look, some people do this for a living. They're gonna hammer a spread at the open if they feel it can be taken advantage of before it moves.

VERY, VERY few people that consider themselves smart bettors or doing  it for a living make money at it. Gambling places, casinos, websites, etc. do NOT build gambling businesses based on people making a profit off them. for even one betting one way there are those betting another. In the long haul gambling money is for losers. So yes there is no such thing as a smart bettor. That being said what one does with their money is their prerogative. I'm not against gambling nor want it to be illegal.
If I'm going to cheer players and coaches in victory, I damn sure ought to be man enough to stand with them in defeat.

"Why some people are so drawn to the irrational is something that has always puzzled me" - James Randi

Fan1958

Quote from: widespreadsooie on October 03, 2017, 12:12:15 pm
Lol. The fact that SC flipped from a favorite to underdog as soon as the line came out is a very good indicator that smart money is all over the Hogs. Smart money is called smart money for a reason.

I saw SC open at -1.5 FWIW.

Well damn.  Might as well not play the game and just chalk up a W for the Hogs.  Reckon how SC feels about that?
Conservatives have always proudly proclaimed themselves to be conservative.  Liberals are now "Progressives"?  Must be terrible to have to hide what you really are.

I like smites.  That's how I know I'm really pissing off the "Progressives".

widespreadsooie

Quote from: Inhogswetrust on October 03, 2017, 01:03:33 pm
VERY, VERY few people that consider themselves smart bettors or doing  it for a living make money at it. Gambling places, casinos, websites, etc. do NOT build gambling businesses based on people making a profit off them. for even one betting one way there are those betting another. In the long haul gambling money is for losers. So yes there is no such thing as a smart bettor. That being said what one does with their money is their prerogative. I'm not against gambling nor want it to be illegal.

Quote from: Fan1958 on October 03, 2017, 01:09:48 pm
Well damn.  Might as well not play the game and just chalk up a W for the Hogs.  Reckon how SC feels about that?

Google Billy Walters or Alan Boston and maybe it will help you understand what I'm talking about.

widespreadsooie

You're sorely mistaking if you don't think there's people out there who know how to take advantage of the betting market, similar to the stock market.

sooiebaby

Quote from: oldrazorband on October 03, 2017, 10:52:00 am
Did anyone see the clip of their QB getting up all wobbly after a hit last week?  I wouldn't doubt he has a concussion.

http://www.12up.com/posts/5617787-video-south-carolina-qb-keeps-playing-after-getting-obvious-concussion?a_aid=36659

He definitely got his bell rung on that play. Watching it live on tv, it was obvious when he got up that he wasnt all there. They couldnt get him off the field though because there was like 40 seconds left in the game and the clock was running. Next play was an incomplete pass and the game was over.
The problem with todays society is that no one drinks from the skulls of their enemies anymore.

DeltaBoy

We need to see some Blitzes this week.
If the South should lose, it means that the history of the heroic struggle will be written by the enemy, that our youth will be trained by Northern school teachers, will be impressed by all of the influences of history and education to regard our gallant dead as traitors and our maimed veterans as fit subjects for derision.
-- Major General Patrick Cleburne
The Confederacy had no better soldiers
than the Arkansans--fearless, brave, and oftentimes courageous beyond
prudence. Dickart History of Kershaws Brigade.

HF#1

We suck against the spread this year. Bet the house on SC
"We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid."  <br /><br />Benjamin Franklin

texas tush hog

Quote from: HF#1 on October 03, 2017, 02:40:29 pm
We suck against the spread this year. Bet the house on SC

Only if you want to win some money.

onebadrubi

Quote from: HF#1 on October 03, 2017, 02:40:29 pm
We suck against the spread this year. Bet the house on SC

New mexico state was 4-0 against the spread, and by most accounts lost because most got the spread at -16.5 to -17.5.    You should have bet the house on new mexico st +17 too...

Inhogswetrust

October 03, 2017, 05:15:30 pm #40 Last Edit: October 03, 2017, 05:29:02 pm by Inhogswetrust
Quote from: widespreadsooie on October 03, 2017, 01:34:27 pm
You're sorely mistaking if you don't think there's people out there who know how to take advantage of the betting market, similar to the stock market.

The factors in the statistics of gambling never change for any one entity or game. In the stock market they do for any one company.
If I'm going to cheer players and coaches in victory, I damn sure ought to be man enough to stand with them in defeat.

"Why some people are so drawn to the irrational is something that has always puzzled me" - James Randi

SPAL

I find a lot of humor in this thread....mainly because a lot of people think they know what they are talking about, but really they don't. I think this is what it would be like if Lee corso and Lou holtz hosted a betting segment on gameday.

SPAL

Quote from: texas tush hog on October 03, 2017, 03:12:52 pm
Only if you want to win some money.

What's your record this year on the books?

SPAL

Quote from: Fan1958 on October 03, 2017, 11:23:12 am
That folks who pay attention to betting lines, relative to the line indicating which team will win or lose, are desperate for anything that makes them feel better.


Folks who pay attention to line movement are using only 1 of several factors to consider when placing a bet.

SPAL

The public doesn't move the line on Sunday. It just doesn't happen.....whales move lines on Sunday.

To answer the original question....when you see heavy line movement early, it means smart money is paying attention. When you see a big shift the day of the game, smart money made it happen.

Vegas couldn't care less about the public.

onebadrubi

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on October 03, 2017, 05:44:46 pm
The public doesn't move the line on Sunday. It just doesn't happen.....whales move lines on Sunday.

To answer the original question....when you see heavy line movement early, it means smart money is paying attention. When you see a big shift the day of the game, smart money made it happen.

Vegas couldn't care less about the public.

Whaaaatttt, no way!!!  This doesn't fit agendas!

Inhogswetrust

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on October 03, 2017, 05:44:46 pm
The public doesn't move the line on Sunday. It just doesn't happen.....whales move lines on Sunday.

To answer the original question....when you see heavy line movement early, it means smart money is paying attention. When you see a big shift the day of the game, smart money made it happen.

Vegas couldn't care less about the public.

Exactly! Vegas cares about only one thing...............your money.
If I'm going to cheer players and coaches in victory, I damn sure ought to be man enough to stand with them in defeat.

"Why some people are so drawn to the irrational is something that has always puzzled me" - James Randi

factchecker

October 03, 2017, 06:22:59 pm #47 Last Edit: October 03, 2017, 06:54:47 pm by factchecker
Quote from: Fan1958 on October 03, 2017, 11:23:12 am
That folks who pay attention to betting lines, relative to the line indicating which team will win or lose, are desperate for anything that makes them feel better.

or worse

There have been plenty of "realists" use the line as a negative against the hogs.
WORK FOR IT
PLAN ON IT
EARN IT
OMAHOGS

Seebs

Why anybody would pay this line either way is a mad man.  Either team could win by 30, and my either team I mean SC
To add a "sig line" or "signature line": Go to your "profile" then go to "modify profile" then scroll down to where it says "Signature" and type in what you want it to say and then click on "change profile". That's it, you're done. Your sig line will only show up on your first post on each page.

Arky

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on October 03, 2017, 05:44:46 pm
The public doesn't move the line on Sunday. It just doesn't happen.....whales move lines on Sunday.

To answer the original question....when you see heavy line movement early, it means smart money is paying attention. When you see a big shift the day of the game, smart money made it happen.

Vegas couldn't care less about the public.