A pattern that needs to be broken

[Biggus Piggus]

A history since 1992...Arkansas's annual W-L records in the first four SEC games:

1992 - 2-2
1993 - 2-2
1994 - 1-3
1995 - 3-1
1996 - 0-4
1997 - 1-3
1998 - 4-0
1999 - 2-2
2000 - 1-3
2001 - 1-3
2002 - 1-3
2003 - 1-3
2004 - 1-3
2005 - 0-4
2006 - 4-0
2007 - 1-3
2008 - 1-3
2009 - 1-3
2010 - 2-2
2011 - 3-1
2012 - 2-2
2013 - 0-4
2014 - 0-4
2015 - 2-2

36-60, .375

Arkansas's second-half SEC record: 51-44-2.

Years when Arkansas won its SEC opener: 1992, 1993, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2010.

Years when Arkansas was above .500 in the first half of the SEC schedule: 1995 (won West), 1998 (tied for West), 2006 (won West), 2011 (won 11 games).

In my view, escaping this pattern of falling quickly out of the SEC race -- this is a major goal for Arkansas football. It would work wonders on fan sentiment and the Razorbacks' standing in college football.

Nutt's string of slow starts from 1999-05 was the thing that aroused impatience against him, even before he had back-to-back losing seasons. Briefly escaping the pattern made Petrino a god in the eyes of some around here.

I don't know how well positioned this team is to change history, but this would be a great time to start.

[PorkSoda]

at this point 2-2 is the best start we can hope for.

[a0ashle]

Time to reorganize our schedule, I mean that would certainly make us LOOK better wouldn't it?

[Biggus Piggus]

Time to reorganize our schedule, I mean that would certainly make us LOOK better wouldn't it?

Have to wonder whether it's a product of getting the short end of the stick from the league office.

[DiamondHogFan]

IIRC, 2010 ended up being a pretty good year...

[DiamondHogFan]

2000-2005...yikes.

[a0ashle]

Have to wonder whether it's a product of getting the short end of the stick from the league office.

I think its a tough division in a tough conference with parity all over the place.  If we could have any 4 conference games we wanted first, which would be the best for us?

The best I can put together would be...

Mizzou
SEC East
Msst
Some other WEST team...doesn't matter.

Looking at a hand picked schedule and we still can only be confident about 2-2 or 3-1.

[Seebs]

Its like an M. C. Escher Painting

[WHITEPW]

I think 2003 or 2004 was a 3-1 start until we lost to auburn at home.  The same year we beat Texas in Austin and won at AL., not that it makes your point any different

2003 was a 4-0 start before losing 3 straight games.

[rljjr]

at this point 2-2 is the best start we can hope for.

Did we lose another game I'm not aware of?

[DeltaBoy]

Have to wonder whether it's a product of getting the short end of the stick from the league office.

Yep I think the SEC worked hard to give us the short in of the stick schedule wise.

We been to inconsistent.

[DiamondHogFan]

at this point 2-2 is the best start we can hope for.

And at 6-2, I think we should be pleased with that considering we will have already played 3 of the better SEC teams in the conference....and Auburn.  We would probably be in the top 15 with Florida, LSU, MSU, and Mizzou left.  I would take that, wouldn't you?

If we start 2-2 in conference play this year, I think we are looking at a possible 10-11 win season after the bowl game.  A lot to be played yet but when your first two conference opponents appear to be the top 2 teams in the conference, a 2-2 start isn't that bad.

[razorbackchamps94]

Did we lose another game I'm not aware of?

Yeah Bama, and Ole Miss lol

[PorkSoda]

Yeah Bama, and Ole Miss lol

close, though 2-2 would mean we lost to bama and beat OM and auburn.

there is a good chance we will start 0-3 in conference and finish 5-3

which is why I hope this team doesn't get too disheartened early.  our conference schedule is front loaded.

[PorkSoda]

And at 6-2, I think we should be pleased with that considering we will have already played 3 of the better SEC teams in the conference....and Auburn.  We would probably be in the top 15 with Florida, LSU, MSU, and Mizzou left.  I would take that, wouldn't you?

If we start 2-2 in conference play this year, I think we are looking at a possible 10-11 win season after the bowl game.  A lot to be played yet but when your first two conference opponents appear to be the top 2 teams in the conference, a 2-2 start isn't that bad.

I agree with this.  it may be ugly to start with, but we have a chance to finish strong again, and possibly even improve over last year despite losing most of our offense.

[Pigsknuckles]

Need to play all games in November.

[Wild Bill Hog]

Yep I think the SEC worked hard to give us the short in of the stick schedule wise.

We been to inconsistent.

Ever wonder how many SEC-W schools having to play us early consider it a problem?

[Dominicanhog]

close, though 2-2 would mean we lost to bama and beat OM and auburn.

there is a good chance we will start 0-3 in conference and finish 5-3

which is why I hope this team doesn't get too disheartened early.  our conference schedule is front loaded.

I could see an 0-4 start and 4-4 finish...

[Hoggish1]

at this point 2-2 is the best start we can hope for.

Absolutely wrong.  The best we can HOPE FOR is 3-1!

[Biggus Piggus]

I think 2003 or 2004 was a 3-1 start until we lost to auburn at home.  The same year we beat Texas in Austin and won at AL., not that it makes your point any different

2003 was a 4-0 start before losing 3 straight games.

You might not have noticed the "SEC games" designation. This is about how Arkansas has a history of falling out of contention for the SEC West title early in the season. Winning nonconference games does not affect the SEC standings.

[12247]

Well, for sure it is not nor will it ever be our fault.  Its the refs, the SEC schedulers, and all those others that pick on us.

[Wild Bill Hog]

Well, for sure it is not nor will it ever be our fault.  Its the refs, the SEC schedulers, and all those others that pick on us.

LOL.  You forgot making us play a DII school in WMS early.

[a0ashle]

To everyone who thinks the SEC schedulers don't like us, I am honestly curious what 4 games you would want to start the Conference game season? I'd argue that no matter how you slice it 3-1 and 2-2 are the only records we can be truly confident (depending on the SEC east draw).

[DiamondHogFan]

To everyone who thinks the SEC schedulers don't like us, I am honestly curious what 4 games you would want to start the Conference game season? I'd argue that no matter how you slice it 3-1 and 2-2 are the only records we can be truly confident (depending on the SEC east draw).

Well this year...Mizzou, MSU, LSU, Auburn are probably our most likely wins so we could start there.

Looks a whole lot better than A&M, Bama, Ole Miss, Auburn.  But no one really expected A&M to be as good as they are to begin the year.

[Razorbackers]

at this point 2-2 is the best start we can hope for.

I wouldn't count us out against Ole Miss. But they'll certainly be favored to win.

[a0ashle]

Well this year...Mizzou, MSU, LSU, Auburn are probably our most likely wins so we could start there.

Looks a whole lot better than A&M, Bama, Ole Miss, Auburn.  But no one really expected A&M to be as good as they are to begin the year.

That's kinda my point, its hard to even hand pick a 4 game schedule ahead of time. I bet at the beginning of the year LSU would have been switched with A&M in most people's minds. Certainly any schedule with Bama is worse, but the parity in the league is such that 4-0 would be a helluva feat.

[RazrRila99]

Biggus, I sense frustration in your posts this week.  Did I miss your frustration in the LaTech (granted I was in disbelief at how close it turned out), TCU, and Texas State games? 

Yes, we have opportunities to get better starting with the O-line coming together as a unit (one of the hardest things in football).  However, all is not lost.  We lost to the #10 team in the country, went toe to toe until the 92 yd TD to Reynolds, even then we didnt give up, but we did lose some steam.  These "boys" that are lining up with the Razorback on their helmet are giving everything they have for US, the coaching staff, and more importantly themselves. 

Now back to the OP, we have almost always started with one of the hardest teams in the west, be it Auburn, Bama, or aTm.  We as fans complained for YEARS why do we always start with Bama.  Then we got Auburn to not only start conference, but the season; now we have aTm to start.  It just so happens that we got AU when they were "good" and aTm as they are on the uptick. 

My question to you:  What do you suggest we do to remedy this and your other diatribes?  I myself get frustrated about not being able to get over the hump, getting "out adjusted" at half time, etc.  I dont grouse about it since theres nothing I can do.  I continue to be a fan and support those "boys" who put the uniform on. 

[Biggus Piggus]

Biggus, I sense frustration in your posts this week.  Did I miss your frustration in the LaTech (granted I was in disbelief at how close it turned out), TCU, and Texas State games? 

You must have missed a lot, re: LT and TCU. Main thing is the many months of watching the Oline come together wrong in spring, not get fixed in August, flop in game one, proceeded by flip-flopping ever since. Not an overnight thing here.

There's also a realization that Arkansas's made its defense so complicated that it can't get backups at LB and DB onto the field, even in a blowout. That is the kind of structural problem that will lead to more issues.

Oh, and work sucks. How are you doing?

[MJ2]

UGLY.   Based on these facts, how do we all get in such a summer frinzy expecting to go undefeated?   We can't even get thru September.

[HotlantaHog]

UGLY.   Based on these facts, how do we all get in such a summer frinzy expecting to go undefeated?   We can't even get thru September.

I agree with this. There is a striking difference between the feeling so many years that the Hogs are on the verge of a great (undefeated?) season in August and the reality of the first half of the season. Maybe that is true with every team, but seems especially true with Arkansas.

[dmaxfan]

I thought 2006 we were 3-1 after losing to usc in the season opener

[HiggiePiggy]

I thought 2006 we were 3-1 after losing to usc in the season opener

Sec record.  That means non conference games aren't mentioned.  We started out 4-0 in conference that year. 

[Rison Razor Hog]

UGLY.   Based on these facts, how do we all get in such a summer frinzy expecting to go undefeated?   We can't even get thru September.

You quote here as if you thought we were going to be good this year, but your posts indicate you have us going 5-7 this year. What gives with the phony positive start position? I get that you don't like Bret Bielema, and are down on the Hogs because of it, but at least have the intellectual honesty to post consistently and not mislead the board about your real prediction for the Hogs this season.

[hogsmash12]

ahhhhhhhhhh.......1998.......brought my daughter home from the hospital the day of the Tennessee game....she was born on Thursday.......thought we were going to the Fiesta Bowl

[DeltaBoy]

Well we are 4-1 So far .

[MJ2]

You quote here as if you thought we were going to be good this year, but your posts indicate you have us going 5-7 this year. What gives with the phony positive start position? I get that you don't like Bret Bielema, and are down on the Hogs because of it, but at least have the intellectual honesty to post consistently and not mislead the board about your real prediction for the Hogs this season.

Feathers ruffled?

[OneTuskOverTheLine™]

The pattern I see, Other than HDN, is coaches repeating the cyclical rebuild after having two to three crappy seasons. Petrino suffered through it and so did CBB after him. We are seeing a better team than any of us thought we would have due to Austin Allen's emergence as a truly gifted game manager and ball spinner. The rub will be in two years after Austin graduated and the next QB takes his place. We appear to be building quality depth at all positions. This doesn't have the appearance of a fluke. I believe CBB will get this done...

[HiggiePiggy]

Well we are 4-1 So far .

Yep that is good so far, but as far as sec play goes we are 0-1. That's what he is talking about in this thread our first 4 games in the sec.   

[Exit Pursued by a Boar]

The pattern I see, Other than HDN, is coaches repeating the cyclical rebuild after having two to three crappy seasons. Petrino suffered through it and so did CBB after him. We are seeing a better team than any of us thought we would have due to Austin Allen's emergence as a truly gifted game manager and ball spinner. The rub will be in two years after Austin graduated and the next QB takes his place. We appear to be building quality depth at all positions. This doesn't have the appearance of a fluke. I believe CBB will get this done...

If we are to believe the Cole Kelley hype, we will be fine when AA leaves.

EFBAB

[HiggiePiggy]

As long as Enos stays I will feel good about our qbs. 

[plumbhog]

To be fair we are in the process of making one big change about Razorback football. Look at our recent bowl record. Now if we can just take control of Alabama.

[HogMantheIntruder]

More like the short end of the stick on Signing Day, and it's self inflicted.

Could you elaborate on this?

[pigture perfect]

Its like an M. C. Escher Painting

I'm thinking "Guernica" by Picasso.

[dbhog]

Time to reorganize our schedule, I mean that would certainly make us LOOK better wouldn't it?

Well we do not have control over the SEC schedule so I don't know how you propose to do that.  Plus we are committed to the A&M game in Sept thru 2024.  And the Bama game is always at the front end of our SEC schedule.  We just need to get better and beat these teams consistently.

[Valleysports]

UGLY.   Based on these facts, how do we all get in such a summer frinzy expecting to go undefeated?   We can't even get thru September.

As an observer, I've always wondered this myself.  lol   Is it some kind of naturally occurring phenomena, with Hog Fans?  The 2015 team was a good, experienced team, with seniors and juniors graduating and declaring pro.  So there it is - everyone knew (Jan/Feb) a rebuilding year is coming.  Then slowly but surely, that summer frenzy creeps in, and all of a sudden "Hogs might go all-the-way".    The Hogs are right on schedule, showing some strengths that weren't expected and some weaknesses that were.   

[Biggus Piggus]

Just to lay out what actually happened on Hogville, plenty of us went through the following sequence:

After spring, it was clear that the offensive line was in trouble with little chance that any recruits would help at all this season.

The running game had loads of questions, with the starter going no-contact and recovering from a major injury, the usable backups almost certainly coming from the freshmen, and oft-injured Kody Walker probably getting more carries than would be optimal.

The defense had exciting recruits coming, but the Hogs still lacked a true rush end, lacked usable depth at linebacker, and the hope for the secondary lay in coaching them up rather than adding talent.

The addition of Jake Raulerson was a hail-Mary for the Oline, with a likely starter falling from the heavens.

The departure of DB Willie Sykes was unwelcome news.

Getting into August, several things became clear:

* QB Austin Allen was playing better than anyone had expected.
* The Oline was still a mess, though some people laughably took comfort in the fact that the coaches were shuffling lineups almost every day, as though that were a sign of great coaching and not desperation.
* RB Devwah Whaley was going to help fairly soon, but not in the first few games, as nobody was making any game-plan compromises to work him in.
* WR Dominique Reed was not all the way back from his Liberty Bowl injury and not pleasing anyone with his work ethic.
* WRs Drew Morgan and Jared Cornelius were not going full-speed yet either.
* When the injury to unknown juco transfer Britto Tutt was portrayed as a significant loss, it was clear that the secondary's depth situation was precarious.

We got into the season, and the offense was barely functional for game one. That was a combination of problems - the Oline was dysfunctional, the running backs were puzzled, the QB got hit/sacked a lot, and the WRs were depleted. Arkansas scored 21 points against Louisiana Tech. South Carolina State scored 24 the next week. Texas Tech, 59. Middle Tennessee, 38. Western Kentucky, 52.

The secondary lost Kevin Richardson, and it became clear that CB D.J. Dean was nowhere close to full speed. Despite depth constraints, the Razorbacks put together three quarters of very good defense against TCU.

We saw a common theme in the TCU and Texas A&M games. The Razorbacks very much need the offense to get to speed, because the defense can't hold up for the entire game. Arkansas barely survived after the offense blew a first and goal at the TCU 2. The red zone failures multiplied against the Aggies, turning a tight game into blowout loss.

It has been hard to accept it, but Arkansas did not do a good job of reconstructing the offense after its spectacular second half of 2015.

Here are the scores to date, offensive production only (excluding overtime):

21 Louisiana Tech
21 TCU (two TDs, two field goals, a 2-pt conversion)
24 Texas A&M
42 Texas State
45 Alcorn State

The offense shows a trajectory of improvement, going from 21 points against Louisiana Tech and TCU to 24 against Texas A&M. The effort that scored 21 on LaTech would have gotten zeroes against the Aggies.

For Arkansas to have any chance of beating No. 1 Alabama, the offense has to arrive in full, right now. That challenge is hampered by the uncertain status of Frank Ragnow and Keon Hatcher.

It is going to take a great, unpredictable game plan + brilliant adjustments to get even close to beating the Tide. Putting in that much "new" is very hard when you might have a new starter at center + one of your top two receivers hasn't been practicing much.

Any optimism about this season rested largely on the quality of the veteran receiving corps, and that group has not been close to what it was in 2015.

* Drew Morgan has one TD catch in five games, had 10 in 13 games last season.
* Dominique Reed has four catches in five games with no touchdowns.
* When healthy, Keon Hatcher and Jared Cornelius have been very good, but they have not been healthy for every game -- this season or last.
* Cody Hollister is back after missing most of last season with a broken foot, but his performance has been inconsistent.
* Jeremy Sprinkle is averaging three catches per game and 10.5 ypc, lagging well behind the production of last year's starting TE, Hunter Henry. No serious threat exists at the other TE spot Sprinkle vacated.

The main things that have gone right: Allen is playing very good football, and Rawleigh Williams is playing well at running back (with only 30 carries in the last two games, so he is rested).

To beat the Tide, Arkansas is going to have to unbundle its offense, get out of the clustered formations and stretch the defense in all directions. Get playmakers in one-on-one situations, and have them make plays. Get max performances from Hatcher, Cornelius, Morgan, Sprinkle, maybe Reed, or maybe freshmen like Whaley and T.J. Hammonds.

The pieces are there for Arkansas to move the ball against Alabama, if the offensive line does not collapse, if the quarterback does not get destroyed.

We could focus on the defensive plan, but all depends on whether the offense can score enough points to put pressure on the Tide, its freshman quarterback, and its short list of offensive playmakers.

[Grizzlyfan]

Have to wonder whether it's a product of getting the short end of the stick from the league office.

But if we are going to get the big, season defining win over Alabama or the like, wouldn't it be better to play them on the front end? before you get beat up from the SEC schedule?  And who would have expected to see Texas AM such a dominant team so early?

[Oklahawg]

As an observer, I've always wondered this myself.  lol   Is it some kind of naturally occurring phenomena, with Hog Fans?  The 2015 team was a good, experienced team, with seniors and juniors graduating and declaring pro.  So there it is - everyone knew (Jan/Feb) a rebuilding year is coming.  Then slowly but surely, that summer frenzy creeps in, and all of a sudden "Hogs might go all-the-way".    The Hogs are right on schedule, showing some strengths that weren't expected and some weaknesses that were.   

What we didn't anticipate:
1. the league being a touch down, even Bama, thus giving us a tiny, wafer-thin bit of opportunity where it normally doesn't exist. This fed some optimism that extends beyond our own reality.
2. Austin Allen would be this good, or at least this quickly, and in non-optimal surroundings (see Biggus' post above)

Fandom is a crazy thing.

[Tejano Jawg]

We saw a common theme in the TCU and Texas A&M games. The Razorbacks very much need the offense to get to speed, because the defense can't hold up for the entire game. Arkansas barely survived after the offense blew a first and goal at the TCU 2. The red zone failures multiplied against the Aggies, turning a tight game into blowout loss.

It has been hard to accept it, but Arkansas did not do a good job of reconstructing the offense after its spectacular second half of 2015.

Right before the season started, I wondered if to win games, we'd just need to out-score people.

Even though Austin Allen—and to some extent, our running backs (in full-time roles)—was unproven, I still felt more optimistic about our offense than our defense. That's why it was such a letdown when we didn't score more in those first few games, starting with La-Tech.

To stay in the Bama game, our D will have to hold the line and/or minimize the damage. I'd love if we forced a turnover or 2. And our O must eliminate the catastrophic mistake (red zone turnover, big penalty) move the ball, and get on the scoreboard. A lot. And, we'll need more Sprinkle.