Welcome to Hogville!      Do Not Sell My Personal Information

V-shaped recession?

Started by Biggus Piggus, October 21, 2008, 10:53:00 am

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Biggus Piggus

http://www.forbes.com/home/2008/10/20/money-recession-recovery-oped-cx_bw_rs_1021wesburystein.html

"When the NBER picks the start date of this recession, we suspect that they will reach back to the fourth quarter of 2007, when real gross domestic product fell by a slight 0.2%. We do not agree that the U.S. was in recession then, or for that matter up through August 2008. Despite a horrible housing market, real GDP expanded at a 2.8% annual rate in Q2, while real GDP was basically flat in the third quarter."

This is a shallow interpretation of Q2 GDP, which in inflation-adjusted terms was not very well inflation-adjusted.  More than 100% of that 2.8% was an underadjustment for inflation (works negatively because the category in question is imports).

These guys seem to be unaware of how often anomalously positive GDP quarters popped up in the middle of past recessions.

Nevertheless, I am intrigued by their suggestion that there isn't a lot of demand destruction going on, just deferral.
[CENSORED]!