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Odds the Hogs make the NCAA Tourney?

Started by razorjack12, February 09, 2014, 12:14:12 am

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What are the odds the Razorbacks make the NCAA Torney?

<10%
148 (54.2%)
11-20%
55 (20.1%)
21-30%
31 (11.4%)
31-40%
20 (7.3%)
41-50%
11 (4%)
>50%
8 (2.9%)

Total Members Voted: 267

razorjack12

I believe we are slightly above 30% right now.   If we hold serve at home, split our road games, then win 2 games in the SEC Tourney...that will put us at 23-11 and right on the Bubble.

Uberanubis

Quote from: East TN HAWG on January 31, 2015, 11:37:05 am
I think it's a common event whether it is in AR or around the world where a group of Hog fans get together.  I've seen it in TN, TX, LA and in Germany.  Being a Razorback is like being in a brotherhood.  When the brotherhood meet, they call the Hogs.

 

East Clintwood



Odds the Hogs make the NCAA  NIT Tourney?


A more realistic poll.
Any dog can be a seeing eye dog if you don't care where you're going.

          Like  blows - Bring back Karma

Prosciutto

Quote from: razorjack12 on February 09, 2014, 12:14:12 am
I believe we are slightly above 30% right now.   If we hold serve at home, split our road games, then win 2 games in the SEC Tourney...that will put us at 23-11 and right on the Bubble.

What you say the odds are of splitting Missouri, Kentucky, Miss. St, and Bama on the road?

Fayettechill14

Quote from: Prosciutto on February 09, 2014, 07:12:40 am
What you say the odds are of splitting Missouri, Kentucky, Miss. St, and Bama on the road?

Keep playing we did against Vandy, and 2-2 is realistic.

TeamRankings.com's statistical analysis gives the Hogs an 84% chance of a bid IF there are 24 wins AFTER the conference tournament. Win just 23 and it falls to 43%.

Locutus_of_Boar

Quote from: Fayettechill14 on February 09, 2014, 07:14:47 am
Keep playing we did against Vandy, and 2-2 is realistic.

TeamRankings.com's statistical analysis gives the Hogs an 84% chance of a bid IF there are 24 wins AFTER the conference tournament. Win just 23 and it falls to 43%.

One of the great misconceptions of all time was "Forty Minutes of Hell".  Nolan knew even his best teams could sustain that pace against a quality foe for maybe five or at most ten minutes at a stretch each half.

If Anderson does attempt to keep the press going on the road as he did against an outmanned, out-talented Vandy squad the collapse in the last five minutes of each half will bury his team.


Fayettechill14

Quote from: Locutus_of_Boar on February 09, 2014, 07:36:27 am
One of the great misconceptions of all time was "Forty Minutes of Hell".  Nolan knew even his best teams could sustain that pace against a quality foe for maybe five or at most ten minutes at a stretch each half.

If Anderson does attempt to keep the press going on the road as he did against an outmanned, out-talented Vandy squad the collapse in the last five minutes of each half will bury his team.

You're right, but we know we need a low-post, halfcourt scorer anyway. That's where Portis has to take over, when the press isn't working as it won't for large parts of games.

jry04

What people aren't considering is how weak the bubble is. Vandy was considered a bubble team with work to do according to Palm going into our game. Also, teams like Minnesota and Clemson are on the bubble, which we beat. The bubble is not particularly strong this year, so 21 or 22 wins will get us in the discussion.

rude1

Guys not wanting to take away from a good road win, BUT, let's not get carried away. We were a Qualls made 3 pointer from choking away another one. We saw the same thing we have seen on the road all season, the inability to finish the game strongly. I can't look at how that game ended and think we are ready to now go on the road and produce wins.

Dirty


HawgAdvocate

February 09, 2014, 10:29:30 am #10 Last Edit: February 09, 2014, 10:45:18 am by HawgAdvocate
Quote from: jry04 on February 09, 2014, 08:59:36 am
What people aren't considering is how weak the bubble is. Vandy was considered a bubble team with work to do according to Palm going into our game. Also, teams like Minnesota and Clemson are on the bubble, which we beat. The bubble is not particularly strong this year, so 21 or 22 wins will get us in the discussion.

Haha, props to you for being the one guy to promote Clemson all season long as a team that will look good on our resume. Their non-con schedule was "horrible" (per Jerry Palm), and they have one lone win (vs Duke) worthy of praise. They have improved from last season though.
"The supreme benevolent force of Hogville, who is impervious to pervasive form of confirmation bias, which is inherent to ALL human beings" - intelligence 4/4/16
***
I used to argue with HA about how Pel ran the basketball team.  I've since learned to like and respect him.  In fact, I'd go as far to say that HA is well connected or extremely perceptive. - Porkatarian, 11/7/12

GuvHog

Quote from: rude1 on February 09, 2014, 09:46:22 am
Guys not wanting to take away from a good road win, BUT, let's not get carried away. We were a Qualls made 3 pointer from choking away another one. We saw the same thing we have seen on the road all season, the inability to finish the game strongly. I can't look at how that game ended and think we are ready to now go on the road and produce wins.

I think fans are hoping that this road win over Vandy has given the team a large dose of confidence in that they now know they can win on the road.
Bleeding Razorback Red Since Birth!!!

razorbackchamps94

21 to 30 percent ,it is possible thou.. Lose @ Mizzou and Kentucky and win the rest plus 2 in the SEC Tourney

 

jry04

Quote from: HawgAdvocate on February 09, 2014, 10:29:30 am
Haha, props to you for being the one guy to promote Clemson all season long as a team that will look good on our resume. Their non-con schedule was "horrible" (per Jerry Palm), and they have one lone win (vs Duke) worthy of praise. They have improved from last season though.
I just thought they would be a middle-of-the-pack ACC team. I have really promoted SMU all season, since before the season even started. After watching Clemson a few times, I felt they had the ability to be a decent ACC team. I didn't expected them to be on Lunardi's First Four Out with 10 games to go, though. I think they come back down to reality in the next few weeks playing @ Cuse, @ ND, and vs UVA.

gmarv

guvhog you got my feeling about the road, i,m very hopeful
that this game gives them confidence to finish games
on the road. just like the lack of confidence seemed to
cost us the tenn,ga. games.

cal34

Quote from: rude1 on February 09, 2014, 09:46:22 am
Guys not wanting to take away from a good road win, BUT, let's not get carried away. We were a Qualls made 3 pointer from choking away another one. We saw the same thing we have seen on the road all season, the inability to finish the game strongly. I can't look at how that game ended and think we are ready to now go on the road and produce wins.

Totally agree,  we collapsed in the last 4 minutes just like we did in the other games.  The chance of us going to the NCAA tourney is 0.

PonderinHog

Quote from: cal34 on February 09, 2014, 12:19:33 pm
Totally agree,  we collapsed in the last 4 minutes just like we did in the other games.  The chance of us going to the NCAA tourney is 0.
Actually, I thought the collapse/scoring drought occurred earlier and then we fought back at the end of the game.  Either way, we almost blew it - again.  I'll take the win though, every time.

LJHOG

Quote from: razorjack12 on February 09, 2014, 12:14:12 am
split our road games
Arkansas playin' .500 ball on the road!!  In what universe?

rude1

Quote from: Terry (GUVHOG) Holcomb on February 09, 2014, 10:44:04 am
I think fans are hoping that this road win over Vandy has given the team a large dose of confidence in that they now know they can win on the road.
I understand what the hope is, but here is what the reality is: We shot 54% from the field, 63% from three point range, probably the best offensively as you will see us play, and yet it took a contested Qualls 3 to come away with that win. To me that doesn't inspire a lot of hope for the remaining road games.

HognotinMemphis

Quote from: Fayettechill14 on February 09, 2014, 07:14:47 am
Keep playing we did against Vandy, and 2-2 is realistic.

TeamRankings.com's statistical analysis gives the Hogs an 84% chance of a bid IF there are 24 wins AFTER the conference tournament. Win just 23 and it falls to 43%.
But they won't keep playing that way. They never have. Not only will the Hogs not split remaining road games, they will not win any of them.
I don't want you to agree with me because you're weak. I want you to agree with me because you know I'm right.
______________________
President Obama promised to begin to slow the rise of the oceans and to heal the planet. My promise is to help you and your family." - Mitt Romney

smokenjoe

Confidence on the road is less than one game thick. Just one spell of its loss ends in disaster.
I have zero confidence they can maintain any type of upswing without falling apart.

The proof is in the pudding. Show me.

Atlhogfan1

Quote from: rude1 on February 09, 2014, 12:24:46 pm
I understand what the hope is, but here is what the reality is: We shot 54% from the field, 63% from three point range, probably the best offensively as you will see us play, and yet it took a contested Qualls 3 to come away with that win. To me that doesn't inspire a lot of hope for the remaining road games.

Thanks rude.  I took a beating for suggesting this after the game last night.  Bad timing on my part I guess. 

10-16 from 3 is not something I think we can consistently count on home or road. 

Quote from: Prosciutto on February 09, 2014, 07:12:40 am
What you say the odds are of splitting Missouri, Kentucky, Miss. St, and Bama on the road?

Bama and Miss St are beatable.  Bama is just so bad offensively, we should be able to stay in it.  The concern will be our offensive end as they are good defensively as we've already found out outside of Portis' "all time" game.
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

HognotinMemphis

Quote from: Atlhogfan1 on February 09, 2014, 12:38:46 pm
Thanks rude.  I took a beating for suggesting this after the game last night.  Bad timing on my part I guess. 

10-16 from 3 is not something I think we can consistently count on home or road. 

Bama and Miss St are beatable.  Bama is just so bad offensively, we should be able to stay in it.  The concern will be our offensive end as they are good defensively as we've already found out outside of Portis' "all time" game.
And that was against a team that played only 8 players the entire game.
I don't want you to agree with me because you're weak. I want you to agree with me because you know I'm right.
______________________
President Obama promised to begin to slow the rise of the oceans and to heal the planet. My promise is to help you and your family." - Mitt Romney

Atlhogfan1

Quote from: HoginMemphis on February 09, 2014, 12:40:46 pm
And that was against a team that played only 8 players the entire game.

Yep.  Vandy's starters minutes:
37
35
33
32
31

Ours:
35
31
24
15
8

Bench
27 Wade
21 Qualls

Fuller had played 40, 40 and 38 min in the previous SEC games.  He is 8-16 from the FT line in their last two games including 2 misses late in our game when they were down 2.  It is probably catching up.

Disclaimer for the Mike extremists:  Mike had the obvious right plan going into this game and executed.  We owned the depth matchup and used it to our advantage.  He has also made a good decision in playing Wade 51 minutes in the last 2 games especially the minutes vs Vandy.
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

 

TMc

Not a chance, they won't shoot that well again on the road.  Here's to hoping though..

The_Iceman

Here is what we will have to do to make the NCAA-T:

@ Mizzou - L
vs. LSU - W
vs. SC - W
@ Miss St - W
@ UK - L
vs. UGA - W
vs. Miss - W
@ Bama - W

21-10. Then we need to win 2 SEC-T games, getting us to 23-11.

I think at 23-11 we would make the NCAA tournament. Anything less, and I think we are going to the NIT, which honestly, would be a step forward for this program.

However, I also think we can miss postseason play all together if we aren't careful. We gotta finish strong to get the attention of both the NCAA and NIT. If we can just get to 20 wins on the season, I think the NIT will take us.

60 Minutes of Hell

Quote from: The_Iceman on February 09, 2014, 05:19:20 pm
Here is what we will have to do to make the NCAA-T:

@ Mizzou - L
vs. LSU - W
vs. SC - W
@ Miss St - W
@ UK - L
vs. UGA - W
vs. Miss - W
@ Bama - W

21-10. Then we need to win 2 SEC-T games, getting us to 23-11.

I think at 23-11 we would make the NCAA tournament. Anything less, and I think we are going to the NIT, which honestly, would be a step forward for this program.

However, I also think we can miss postseason play all together if we aren't careful. We gotta finish strong to get the attention of both the NCAA and NIT. If we can just get to 20 wins on the season, I think the NIT will take us.

I don't disagree, but I think the odds of accomplishing this are roughly equal to our odds of winning the SEC tourney for the automatic bid.
What a fool I used to be.

3kgthog

The only remaining win worth a crap would be UK. I figure you'll see Mizzou drop off the map and LSU never was more than a turd with sprinkles.

The_Iceman

Quote from: 60 Minutes of Hell on February 09, 2014, 05:35:56 pm
I don't disagree, but I think the odds of accomplishing this are roughly equal to our odds of winning the SEC tourney for the automatic bid.

Agreed. It's not likely we'll do that. But that is the most likely scenario of us reaching the tournament (don't see us beating Mizzou or UK no matter what).


Hawg Red

Still less than 10% at this point. We just don't have the resume right now. We can still change that, though....

yraciv

I think some of you are a little premature with the 0% projections. Heck if you win the SEC tournament your in, which I'd put at about 5%.  I certainly don't feel good about these guys playing their way in, but with the weak bubble we aren't as far from the tournament as some of you seem to think. Our RPI sits at 70 and BPI sits at 40.  Winning at Missouri or Kentucky is unlikely, but crazier things have happened and would give our resume a huge boost. Who knows what the draw will look like in Atlanta. We could easily see Kentucky or Florida there for another chance at a good resume win. We have several quality wins, and no awful losses. We're down, a longshot, but definitely not dead yet.

swinesation


ATU HOG

Would it benefit us more by not being one of the 6 teams with a bye in the SEC tourney?  That way we could possibly have 1 more win underneath our belt in the tourney.

I don't know if that is possible with a 21-10 record, but just food for thought

HawgAdvocate

Quote from: ATU HOG on February 09, 2014, 09:52:05 pm
Would it benefit us more by not being one of the 6 teams with a bye in the SEC tourney?  That way we could possibly have 1 more win underneath our belt in the tourney.

I don't know if that is possible with a 21-10 record, but just food for thought

We have to keep winning to have a chance, so moving up from 10th in the SEC to 6th or better would then likely happen anyway.
"The supreme benevolent force of Hogville, who is impervious to pervasive form of confirmation bias, which is inherent to ALL human beings" - intelligence 4/4/16
***
I used to argue with HA about how Pel ran the basketball team.  I've since learned to like and respect him.  In fact, I'd go as far to say that HA is well connected or extremely perceptive. - Porkatarian, 11/7/12

yraciv

Quote from: swinesation on February 09, 2014, 09:38:37 pm
No awful losses?!?

Yes no awful head scratching losses. You know like last year we got destroyed by an awful South Carolina team, and the year before that I believe it was Houston.  A&M and Georgia are certainly bad losses, but they aren't the sub 150+ RPI losses that kill your resume.

Poker_hog

10% right now.  Win at mizzu and it goes to over 50%.  The team would have the swag back that it lost at aTm.
Sometimes wrong, but never in doubt

Rbill

21-30%

Factoring in the slight possibility of winning the SEC tournament is worth a few percentage points. And I give us a 1in4 or 1in5 chance of winning the games we need to win the rest of the year. It isn't where I'd put my money, but it could still happen. No reason to give up yet at all.

HF#1

We need to win at Mizzou.  Period.  The rest of the schedule is favorable.  Expect a loss in Lexington but other than that every game is winnable. 

Believe it or not, we can climb back on the bubble just by beating Mizzou Wednesday.
"We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid."  <br /><br />Benjamin Franklin

Pistol Pig Maravich

Quote from: East Clintwood on February 09, 2014, 05:35:24 am

Odds the Hogs make the NCAA  NIT Tourney?


A more realistic poll.
Wow...East...what weather channel is that!!! Someone call DIRECTV and get it on!!

hogsanity

less than 10%.  Since it is still possible until the field is announced and they are not in it. However, those resting on last Sat's win need to look at somethings.  Vandy has 7 scholarship players, the hogs shot 18% better from the field ( 30% better from 3 pt range ), were almost even on the glass, won the to battle, shot ft's very well, AND STLLL had to make a 22ft jumper and survive a decent last look by VAndy to win. 

Playing that well against a depleted foe, and still had to squeek out the win.  Not likely they win enough to make it. 
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

swinesation

This team is too inconsistent for us to entertain thoughts of making the NCAA tourney. Our best player this season has been Ky Madden, and even he has been inconsistent the last few games. Over the last four games, he has been 1-5, 4-15, 5-15, and 6-10 from the field. He looked horrible against LSU and Alabama. Luckily, Portis had the game of his life against Bama, and Odom missed a shot he shoulda made, or everybody would be talking about how awful this team is.

We just don't have the talent. The likelihood is that we'll go 4-4 over our last 8 games, or 5-3 at best. No NCAA tourney this season. Maybe the NIT.

Beaverfever

February 10, 2014, 03:17:11 pm #41 Last Edit: February 10, 2014, 03:31:58 pm by Beaverfever
Quote from: HogFan#1 on February 10, 2014, 12:30:15 pm
We need to win at Mizzou.  Period.  The rest of the schedule is favorable.  Expect a loss in Lexington but other than that every game is winnable. 

Believe it or not, we can climb back on the bubble just by beating Mizzou Wednesday.
this.  Win at Mizzou and the conversation is way different.  I like the schedule after that.  OM and LSU would be road losses but we should win both at home.  It's equally as important for Mizzou though.  They don't need another loss or us passing them in the NCAA pecking order. 

Poker_hog

Quote from: Beaverfever on February 10, 2014, 03:17:11 pm
this.  Win at Mizzou and the conversation is way different.  I like the schedule after that.  OM and LSU would be road losses but we should win both at home. 

If we beat mizzou we'll likely be on a 5 game winning streak heading into msu
Sometimes wrong, but never in doubt

hvsupastar

Finish 10-8 in conference, win a game in the conference tourney I certainly think we are in the conversation
"Do not believe everything you read on the internet just because it has quotations next to the image of someone prominent" - Abraham Lincoln

z1on

Go 6-2 during the next 8 games, that would put them at 21-10 in the regular season. Then win 2 SEC tourney games to get to 23 wins and I think we are in, anything less than 23 and it's NIT or worse.

Beaverfever

Quote from: hvsupastar on February 10, 2014, 04:04:52 pm
Finish 10-8 in conference, win a game in the conference tourney I certainly think we are in the conversation
I wonder if MA coached teams will tend to be slightly favored by the committee because of the way they play.  As bad as his teams are on the road they can be formidable in neutral postseason play where officials are encouraged to "let em play".