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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

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ChicoHog

I was 10-3 for the tournament until the UK loss and now I am likely going to lose the UALR game barring a huge comeback for a back door cover.  Thinking about taking Utah tonight vs gonzaga but I like Gonzaga and want to root for them so i think I'll pass. 

onebadrubi

Quote from: yraciv on March 19, 2016, 02:04:34 pm
I went 2-1 yesterday in CBB. Won with SDS and Northern Iowa, lost on Asheville.  Think my plays today are UK -4 and Spurs -4.

I went with Indiana and golden state today, so we both just lost some juice.

 

ChicoHog

Should have bet on Gonzaga!  Haven't decided what to take tomorrow yet.  Going to wait until the am to decide. 

gotyacovered

Quote from: gotyacovered on March 18, 2016, 10:02:22 am
lookin' at sooners...

will be as close to a home crowd as your gonna get in the tourney... CS Bakersfield is a team just happy to be there and as of late - on the road against opponents far lesser than this (-35 at Saint Marys, -16 at Arizona State) they dont have size the reg season competition to prepare them for the sooners. -14.5 in pocket.

i dont want to even talk about last night... trojans had no idea what they were doing and with :21 sec left - no way it should have been a 1 possession game in favor of USC.... AND providence was losing by 1 :puke:

providence and Oklahoma losses were brutal. and to correct my statement above... i lost providence by the hook... then OU the next day. oh well... maybe this week will be profitable.
You are what you tolerate.

Hawgndaaz

ran into Userpick at the track casino this weekend. He's alive!

onebadrubi

I was there on Saturday, got stroked on every race except the Rebel. 

This weekend hurt me all around.  Lost three maybe even a fourth big play by .5, and I just for some stupid reason stopped buying those when I have been buying the .5 all season.

onebadrubi


widespreadsooie

Yes it is, already have my eye on few college games

onebadrubi

And they canceled the first game on us. I bet the NFL
Office is loving themselves this morning.

I read a stat yesterday, in pre season chip Kelly is has only not covered the spread once and the same for the over I believe.

gotyacovered

August 08, 2016, 10:42:23 am #10059 Last Edit: August 08, 2016, 10:54:05 am by gotyacovered
my early convictions...

chicago bears +6 vs texans on 9/11
got this one in 7/22 before jj watt news hit the presses and i think osweiler will have some trouble with o'briens complicated playbook. last i saw line was at 3.5 - value and timing bet alone basically.

carolina panthers over 10.5 wins
so the markets are telling me they will lose 5 more games than last year with a better defense and (at least) as good as offense?

tampa bay bucs over 7.5 wins
i am basically betting on jameis... he is 22... young but one year older... he scored 27 on the wonderlic (one less than peyton manning), they went from 2-14 in 2014 to 6-10 last year with winston as a rookie. and if you catch any of quotes coming out of camp... well, he seems to have turned a corner. here are a few...

jameis
"If you're trying to push leadership on guys, that guy is not going to want to follow you. Me and the Chaplain, Doug (Gilcrease), we were talking about Biblically what leadership means. Leadership means to serve others. As long I as I can serve the guys around me, I feel like I'm doing a good job of being a leader to them and I know they will do anything for me just like I will for them.''

Gerald McCoy
"Me and Jameis had a private conversation about what he feels like this team needs me to be as a leader. I'm not going to say, but I think it will be obvious when it happens, because you guys are used to doing things a certain way.

"That's going to change. The face of the franchise came to me and said 'Hey, listen. If we're going to win, we need you to do this. OK?' My quarterback said this is what he needs, so it's what I'm going to do. If he feels like that's what our team needs in order for us to win, who am I to tell him, 'No, I'm not going to do that.' I want to win, too.

"He's an intelligent guy, young or not. Very mature, very intelligent. He sits back and watches and analyzes, and he's seen something he feels like I can do to help this team be better. It's not hard to do. It's just a matter of me just doing it. I love Jameis, man. He's like my brother."

Koetter
"Jameis is very perceptive about not only what he needs to get better but what our offense and our team needs to get better. That's one of the things when you're around him more, he's mature way beyond his years with that sort of thing. The reason I got a smile is because that's a good thing for the Bucs.''

los angles rams vs 49ers under 45.5 total
2 of the worst offensive teams and both have decent defenses, line seems out of whack.

here are a few i have not pulled the trigger on, yet.

9/3 usc +10.5 vs bama
just a gut play, lots of talent on usc squad and thats a pretty big number...
LSU to win the SEC
just a value play... there are some good numbers out there, its off on my book today and cant remeber the exact line, but...
You are what you tolerate.

onebadrubi

Carolina O 10.5 is plus money too, I've stayed away from it but fully expect I give in before season.  I was all over Carolina in this thread last year and they single handidly kept me in the black probably.  They got no love from the books and I never understood it. 

widespreadsooie

College lines I'm interested in right now:

Vandy -3 vs. USC-e
Stanford -16 vs. K St.
UCLA +2 @ A&M
LSU -10 vs. WIS
UNC +3 vs. UGA
ND -4.5 @ TX

hogsanity

Quote from: widespreadsooie on August 08, 2016, 12:27:33 pm
College lines I'm interested in right now:

Vandy -3 vs. USC-e
Stanford -16 vs. K St.
UCLA +2 @ A&M
LSU -10 vs. WIS
UNC +3 vs. UGA
ND -4.5 @ TX

the 1st 4 games scare me, I think UNC and ND are locks to cover easy.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

 

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

widespreadsooie

Anyone do any future betting?

I took TN to NOT win the East at +100

SPAL

August 26, 2016, 09:06:47 pm #10065 Last Edit: August 27, 2016, 05:56:25 pm by sir-pigs-a-lot
Cal -19......W

1-0

SPAL


sooiepig_12

Toledo +3 at stAte looks awfully tasty.  Don't know how much Toledo has lost though 

gotyacovered

Quote from: widespreadsooie on August 20, 2016, 01:00:59 pm
Anyone do any future betting?

I took TN to NOT win the East at +100

i have since added....

USC Trojans under 7.5 wins
South Alabama +31 (look who the D coordinators dad is--and do you think miss st is going to be trying to win by 5 TD's with south carolina and LSU the next 2 following weeks?) plus lots freshman gettgin snaps.

here is my question... anyone unbiased enough to logically justify hogs over 7.5 RSW?

Quote from: gotyacovered on August 08, 2016, 10:42:23 am
my early convictions...

chicago bears +6 vs texans on 9/11
got this one in 7/22 before jj watt news hit the presses and i think osweiler will have some trouble with o'briens complicated playbook. last i saw line was at 3.5 - value and timing bet alone basically.

carolina panthers over 10.5 wins
so the markets are telling me they will lose 5 more games than last year with a better defense and (at least) as good as offense?

tampa bay bucs over 7.5 wins
i am basically betting on jameis... he is 22... young but one year older... he scored 27 on the wonderlic (one less than peyton manning), they went from 2-14 in 2014 to 6-10 last year with winston as a rookie. and if you catch any of quotes coming out of camp... well, he seems to have turned a corner. here are a few...

jameis
"If you're trying to push leadership on guys, that guy is not going to want to follow you. Me and the Chaplain, Doug (Gilcrease), we were talking about Biblically what leadership means. Leadership means to serve others. As long I as I can serve the guys around me, I feel like I'm doing a good job of being a leader to them and I know they will do anything for me just like I will for them.''

Gerald McCoy
"Me and Jameis had a private conversation about what he feels like this team needs me to be as a leader. I'm not going to say, but I think it will be obvious when it happens, because you guys are used to doing things a certain way.

"That's going to change. The face of the franchise came to me and said 'Hey, listen. If we're going to win, we need you to do this. OK?' My quarterback said this is what he needs, so it's what I'm going to do. If he feels like that's what our team needs in order for us to win, who am I to tell him, 'No, I'm not going to do that.' I want to win, too.

"He's an intelligent guy, young or not. Very mature, very intelligent. He sits back and watches and analyzes, and he's seen something he feels like I can do to help this team be better. It's not hard to do. It's just a matter of me just doing it. I love Jameis, man. He's like my brother."

Koetter
"Jameis is very perceptive about not only what he needs to get better but what our offense and our team needs to get better. That's one of the things when you're around him more, he's mature way beyond his years with that sort of thing. The reason I got a smile is because that's a good thing for the Bucs.''

los angles rams vs 49ers under 45.5 total
2 of the worst offensive teams and both have decent defenses, line seems out of whack.

here are a few i have not pulled the trigger on, yet.

9/3 usc +10.5 vs bama
just a gut play, lots of talent on usc squad and thats a pretty big number...
LSU to win the SEC
just a value play... there are some good numbers out there, its off on my book today and cant remeber the exact line, but...
You are what you tolerate.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Early leans Da Ville -39 large
Vols -20 large
S Carolina +4 medium
Let's make some waves.

widespreadsooie

Already put in Clemson -6.5

Still looking at ND -3, Stanford -15.5, MIZ +9.5, and FSU -4

onebadrubi

Marlins/Mets Over 7.5.  Loved this game at 7 and then waited and had to get it at 7.5. 

gotyacovered

Quote from: widespreadsooie on August 29, 2016, 11:07:20 am
Already put in Clemson -6.5

Still looking at ND -3, Stanford -15.5, MIZ +9.5, and FSU -4

i like clemson, i didnt pull trigger bc ole gus will pull out all the stops. also one to note in the future - they got a lot of extra practice time from the title game....
You are what you tolerate.

hogsanity

1st picks of the year

Vandy/SC under 43.5

West Va -10
Clem -7.5
OU - 11


People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

 

onebadrubi

I know some people dropping some major coin on that clemson line before it moved to -7.5. 

hogsanity

Quote from: onebadrubi on August 30, 2016, 11:17:13 am
I know some people dropping some major coin on that clemson line before it moved to -7.5. 

It is actually my lightest play, but I think clemson has way too much for Auburn. My big concern for many of the games in the southeast this weekend is the potential for this tropical system currently in the gulf to make it a messy wet day.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

gotyacovered

i bet flat, but if i were to load up on one, i think it would be South Alabama.

in case it got overlooked... and the fact it created zero discussion...

Quote from: gotyacovered on August 29, 2016, 08:52:47 am
South Alabama +31 (look who the D coordinators dad is--and do you think miss st is going to be trying to win by 5 TD's with south carolina and LSU the next 2 following weeks?) plus lots freshman gettgin snaps.

to me this is a dream... you think dave wommack isnt going to help his son beat their biggest arch rival... add in the fact he worked for his dad last year and is the youngest assistant coach in the nation (28)... its all about edges and i think this is a good one. i about fell out of my chair when i saw the father/son relationship on twitter. youve never seen a bet placed faster than this one.

my intrest today is kstate +15.5/47.5... not sure exactly how to approach it but it'll either be the wildcats +15.5 with a significant upgrade (i think) at QB and the standford QB set up. long time since they have had anyone like andrew luck and from what i understand both ryan burns and keller chryst will play... the thing to watch may be the standford heisman rb who may have a chip on his shoulder... over 47.5/48 may be the way... dunno. they have USC then at washington, at UCLA so a savvy coach like david shaw may push pace a little more than usual to maximinze playing time.
You are what you tolerate.

widespreadsooie


OnYourToes

Lines I'm looking at now, some I'm playing, some just looking.  A lot of Home Opening plays that look tasty, some based on coaching story lines, some based on travel.

Vandy-4.5 V South Carolina

Oregon St +13 @ Minn - Playing - New Coach at Minn and Oregon St is on the rise with multiple key starters returning.

Stanford - 15.5 v KState - Playing - Home Opener for the Cardinal and Heisman campaign for Christian McCaffery starts now.

Michigan - 40 v Hawaii - Hard lean - Lot of points but Hawaii just played in Sydney Australia and then has to go to a 5 hour time difference the other way, this will be the shortest week in the lives of the Rainbow Warrior players and coaches.  Oh and their reward for nearly and entire day lost to travel, is Michigan's  home opener in the Big House.  It may be a 52 - 7 type of game.

Ohio St -27.5 v Bowling Green - Hard lean - Again, that's a lot of points and Ohio St has some injuries to deal with, but this is the Urban Bowl, where he started and where he might finish.  Another home  opener he may be looking to make a statement.

Washington - 26.5 v  Rutgers - Hard lean- Washington Home opener plus Rutgers cross country flight. . .

Alabama -11.5 v USC - Playing - Talent and Coaching security of Alabama

Clemson -7.5 @ Auburn - Playing - Talent difference, Clemson's QB is the real deal and their D will disrupt anything Gus tries to hurry up

Notre Dame -3.5 @ Texas - Hard lean - Texas is improved but not quite to the level of beating ND this early in the season.

Ole Miss +4.5 v Florida St - Interesting - Ole Miss has a chance to have an "Us against the world" mentality.  No sanctions yet, so they have to win everything now and make a statement before the fit hits the shan.



This is the most wonderful time of the year!!!
Quote from: Fresh Legs on September 22, 2006, 09:56:48 am
Quote from: OnYourToes on September 22, 2006, 09:48:23 am
The wife's b-day was this past Tuesday, I got her a gift certifiacte for a message, she is going to redeem it Saturday, around 2:35ish.  I had it planned all along.  House to myself, game on, free to yell as loud as I can!!!!!

You sir are a genius!

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Havent even really looked at Saturday yet. Hoping to come.out of the gate fast Thursday night.
Let's make some waves.

userpick

I'm back! Lets make this season a profitable one.

onebadrubi

Tailing a guy that killed it last year with this play. Arkansas state -3-120 huge

ChicoHog

I parlayed GT -3, Irish -3 and LSU -10.  Kind of like La Tech +26 or maybe even the under total of 56 in Hogs game but I can't bet against them.  I think Bielema may play this game fairly conservative in order not to show much going into the TCU game the following week.  Thinking Hogs may win 35-14 or something like that. 

DadVader1

Glad to be starting another season, and good to see a lot of familiar "faces" and a few new ones.  I plan to start out slow to amass a few weeks data before ramping up.  I left my bankroll intact from last season in hopes of getting a decent return on a larger starting amount this season.  Good luck all!

WooPig90


widespreadsooie

Quote from: WooPig90 on August 31, 2016, 11:36:45 am
Thoughts on Vandy -4.5?

I think Vandy wins in what should be a low scoring game. Opened at 2.5 and the fact it's crossed 3 and 4, I'm not playing it. Figure the value lies on the other side now.

gotyacovered

Quote from: ChicoHog on August 30, 2016, 08:46:21 pm
I parlayed GT -3, Irish -3 and LSU -10.  Kind of like La Tech +26 or maybe even the under total of 56 in Hogs game but I can't bet against them.  I think Bielema may play this game fairly conservative in order not to show much going into the TCU game the following week.  Thinking Hogs may win 35-14 or something like that. 

i think your right about hog game plan.
You are what you tolerate.

DadVader1

It's way too early to put any stock in the power ranking systems, but the top six systems from last season all agree on three games in week one:

Stanford -14
Toledo +3.5
BYU +1.5

I'm doing those three and tailing Jeff to play (all for 1/8 unit ... I'm serious about starting small in wk 1)
TN -20
Lou -39.5. 

onebadrubi

Quote from: DadVader1 on August 31, 2016, 04:51:32 pm
It's way too early to put any stock in the power ranking systems, but the top six systems from last season all agree on three games in week one:

Stanford -14
Toledo +3.5
BYU +1.5

I'm doing those three and tailing Jeff to play (all for 1/8 unit ... I'm serious about starting small in wk 1)
TN -20
Lou -39.5.

Where can I get Stanford at -14? 

And to consider Toledo the same as last year, do you factor in everything they lost?

DadVader1

5Dimes still has Stanford at -14 (110).  This afternoon it was at -14 (105), so  I actually took it at -13.5 (115).

I did no independent research on Toledo (one of the side effects of a 1/8 unit bet).  I'm just hoping that at least one  or two of the six top rating systems from last year took that into account. 

Fort Dweller

ND -3

Texas starting a true freshman at QB. 
Quote from: Fatty McGee on June 03, 2012, 09:43:59 pmRabid gay rampage?  That's quite a phrase.  I picture rundown neighborhoods being gentrified by angry, fit, childless, and well dressed mobs.
Quote from: sharpd1 on September 23, 2012, 08:33:21 pmSome of the people posting on here aren't good at brain stuff.
Quote from: PonderinHog on June 26, 2013, 11:15:49 pm
What if he chews a Poptart into the shape of two men holding hands - or worse?
Quote from: PharmacistHog on February 19, 2015, 10:09:07 am
Did you really click on the "report to moderator" button.  And not only that but do it on yourself? 

onebadrubi

Quote from: DadVader1 on August 31, 2016, 07:49:31 pm
5Dimes still has Stanford at -14 (110).  This afternoon it was at -14 (105), so  I actually took it at -13.5 (115).

I did no independent research on Toledo (one of the side effects of a 1/8 unit bet).  I'm just hoping that at least one  or two of the six top rating systems from last year took that into account.

Dang it!!  I swore off 5dimes after I got into it with their customer service. They are AWFUL!!! 

WILL CLINTON

September 01, 2016, 03:17:24 am #10092 Last Edit: September 05, 2016, 11:39:56 pm by WILL CLINTON
FINALLY!!!

Thursday, Sept 1:

Vandy -4 v South Carolina ...L
Vandy v South Carolina u 41.5 ...W

Friday, Sept 2:

Saturday, Sept 3:

OU -11...L
UCLA +3...L
Clemson -8...L
WVU -10 ...W
UNC +4...L
KY -4...L
Texas +4 v ND...W
FSU -4 v OM...W

Leans:

2016 Record: 4-6  40%  Bankroll: $922
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WooPig90

Took a 6 pt 2 team teaser....Vandy +2 and Indiana -4

jkstock04

Staying away from the marquee games today. Gonna go with

Rice +17 for 7 units

Wake Forest -16 for 4 units

Try and hit it hot out of the gate here. Good luck guys.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

hogsanity

tonight
vandy -4
vand/sc under 43.5
tn -20.5
wku -16.5

People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

widespreadsooie


WILL CLINTON

September 01, 2016, 02:56:32 pm #10097 Last Edit: September 01, 2016, 03:45:07 pm by WILL CLINTON
So, so many of us on Vandy tonight. Hope the hogville curse doesn't strike. And we're all on the under also.

Most of my bets will be 3% of my bankroll. My heaviest bet will only be 5%. Trying a bit of strict bankroll management this year.

There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

gotyacovered

Best of luck fellas... my updated open sheet.

Futures:
Carolina Panthers over 10.5 wins
Tampa Bay Bucs Over 7.5 Wins
9/11/16  Bears +6 vs Texans
9/12/16 LA Rams 49ers U45.5

South Alabama +31 vs Mississippi St
Kansas State vs Stanford Over 48
BYU PK vs Arizona

Vandy is popular everywhere, not just here!
You are what you tolerate.

gotyacovered

couple other things that made it into my notes for the weekend...

Mazzone current off coordinator for aggies held that position at UCLA last year;
Dave Aranda was the def coordinator at Wisconsin is this weekend he is on the other side line;
Shannon Dawson, off coordinator at Southern Miss is playing Kentucky team where he was in same position last year;
everybody should have already seen my south bama/miss st edge.
You are what you tolerate.