NCAAT Question for Math...others

[Hot_Town_Hog]

After looking at RPI's. schedules, etc,. I really believe if we win the West with an 11-5 record and pick up one more in the SECT, we will get in the Dance. Lanardi has his last in today with an RPI in the 80's.

I will also say again we will catch a break on some of the early season losses with one of the best PG's in the Country sitting out 14 games, and numerous others out for things such as fabricated rape accusations that also was a distraction to the entire team. With the statement of no wrong doing coming out for a 2nd time, it is clear these guys should have been playing. I will be shocked if you don't hear this very thing dicussed the week leading into Selection Sunday. It has to play a factor based on historical cases, and should hear as well.

We need to keep winning, and we will see how it plays out. I will add that winning 2 out of 3 over Vandy, Miss, and @ Tenn would be huge for our resume.

What is your take?

[mathhog]

After looking at RPI's. schedules, etc,. I really believe if we win the West with an 11-5 record and pick up one more in the SECT, we will get in the Dance. Lanardi has his last in today with an RPI in the 80's.

I will also say again we will catch a break on some of the early season losses with one of the best PG's in the Country sitting out 14 games, and numerous others out for things such as fabricated rape accusations that also was a distraction to the entire team. With the statement of no wrong doing coming out for a 2nd time, it is clear these guys should have been playing. I will be shocked if you don't hear this very thing dicussed the week leading into Selection Sunday. It has to play a factor based on historical cases, and should hear as well.

We need to keep winning, and we will see how it plays out. I will add that winning 2 out of 3 over Vandy, Miss, and @ Tenn would be huge for our resume.

What is your take?

ever since we started winning, this is my rule of thumb to be in for SURE:

13-3 (win out) = we're in even if we do naked cartwheels and lose on friday in the sect
12-4 (lose 1 - must be road game) = must win 1 in the secT
11-5 (lose 2 - must be road games) = must make it to the finals of the secT
10-6 (lose 3) = gotta win the whole thing

SO the magic win number is "20" to be CERTAIN of being in.  win 20 games somehow (13-3 gets us to 20-11 before the sect starts)

now, i agree with you on the CF thing.  i see us like kentucky last year, with the awful noncon but going 12-4 in the league.  so what i mean is, if we went 12-4 in the sec, and lost a compettive Friday SECTourneygame to tennessee/vandy or something (it's still possible they'd finish 4th, which is who we'd likely play on friday, E-4th) we could still go.... im just saying we need 20 not to sweat.

with that said, if we're 12-4, lose on the first day, and are 19-13 on selection sunday, we're likely still in, but it will be a low seed and it will be nervewracking.

20 wins = in for sure.
19 wins = sweat, probably in.
18 wins = eh, could be, but that means we're 11-5.  gotta pray every gonzaga wins.

the issue, too, is that we need an ok rpi to justify our getting in.  winning AT knoxville gives us 10 pts minimum, as does winning at bama, beating vandy at home, beating ole miss a second time, etc.  every one of those games we dont win keeps our rpi low.  we need an rpi of at least in the 70s/60s to think about an at large bid even with the CF exemption.

(fun fact: i played with some numbers - if we'd beaten UAB, ETSU, Morgan State, and South Alabama, our RPI, instead of the #110ish it is right now, our RPI would be about #49 and we'd be 16-7.... puke)

so 20 wins = money.  that's the goal, and it's doable.  just take it one game at a time.

[Hot_Town_Hog]

Would have to agree with everything you said. And the KY analogy is very fitting. We also have a very strong SOS, at least according to realtime rpi. I still say a win at Tenn could take a lot of heat off, especially if we are perfect at home with wins over Vandy, Miss, and even SC.

Like you said. we just need to keep winning. Stay focused and take care of LSU, then the Bama game will be huge for us.

[Hot_Town_Hog]

Forgot to add just how much that dunk given to UAB is hurting our resume. That and the others do make you sick, but that is the cards we were dealt and we will just have to step it up a notch and keep winning!!

[NuttMustGo!]

We just have to keep the momentum going and keep winning games. 20 wins I agree should get us in, but we may need more. I would love a SECT victory so we don't even have to think about it on selection Sunday!

[Rainmaker203]

ever since we started winning, this is my rule of thumb to be in for SURE:

13-3 (win out) = we're in even if we do naked cartwheels and lose on friday in the sect
12-4 (lose 1 - must be road game) = must win 1 in the secT
11-5 (lose 2 - must be road games) = must make it to the finals of the secT
10-6 (lose 3) = gotta win the whole thing

SO the magic win number is "20" to be CERTAIN of being in.  win 20 games somehow (13-3 gets us to 20-11 before the sect starts)

now, i agree with you on the CF thing.  i see us like kentucky last year, with the awful noncon but going 12-4 in the league.  so what i mean is, if we went 12-4 in the sec, and lost a compettive Friday SECTourneygame to tennessee/vandy or something (it's still possible they'd finish 4th, which is who we'd likely play on friday, E-4th) we could still go.... im just saying we need 20 not to sweat.

with that said, if we're 12-4, lose on the first day, and are 19-13 on selection sunday, we're likely still in, but it will be a low seed and it will be nervewracking.

20 wins = in for sure.
19 wins = sweat, probably in.
18 wins = eh, could be, but that means we're 11-5.  gotta pray every gonzaga wins.

the issue, too, is that we need an ok rpi to justify our getting in.  winning AT knoxville gives us 10 pts minimum, as does winning at bama, beating vandy at home, beating ole miss a second time, etc.  every one of those games we dont win keeps our rpi low.  we need an rpi of at least in the 70s/60s to think about an at large bid even with the CF exemption.

(fun fact: i played with some numbers - if we'd beaten UAB, ETSU, Morgan State, and South Alabama, our RPI, instead of the #110ish it is right now, our RPI would be about #49 and we'd be 16-7.... puke)

so 20 wins = money.  that's the goal, and it's doable.  just take it one game at a time.

+1.  Pretty much spot on.

[Danny J]

There is no chance we make the NCAA tourny unless we win the sec tourny. There are just too many things that need to happen. I was watching during the ole miss/bama game today and they displayed the sec RPI rankings and we are not even in the top 6. The sec will be lucky to get 5 teams in the big dance this year. UK, Vandy, Tenn are for sure locks. That leaves Florida, Ole Miss, MSU and Arkansas. All 3 of those teams have ALOT better RPI's and wins. All 3 of those "bubble" teams have signature wins. What is our signature win? Mizzou state and Ole Miss(bubble team)? Tenn would be a signature win but I dont see us winning in knoxville. The only chance we have is to win out and win 2 games in the sec tourny but what are the chances? Can we win out and beat tenn, auburn and bama on the road plus win thre rest of our home games? I just dont see it happening but hey....stranger things have happened.

[Razorback88]

It's fun to speculate on what we need to do in order to get an at-large, but there's no way you can claim that a certain amount of wins will or will not get us in.  There are too many other variables: how Ole Miss and Miss State finish, how many conference tourney upsets occur, etc.

The fact remains that our resume is not good enough to seriously be having this conversation right now.  Just keep winnin' baby.

[12247]

Unfortunately, we don't deserve a bid at this time.  If we should win and win big the rest of the season including the SECT, we MIGHT deserve to be in as a double digit seed.

[rzrbackrob]

Right now the Hogs are 12-11
This is a streaky team not only in games but overall for the season.
Before the current 4 game winning streak, they had lost 6 of 7 games.
Early in the season, the Hogs had a 5 game winning streak and a 4 game losing streak.

The Hogs are not going to win out.
The history of this team points to a 3-4 game losing streak on the horizon.
At this point winning 1/2 their games from here on out would be doing well for this team.
8-9-or 10 wins in the SEC after just 2 last year is significant improvement.
Realistically the Hogs could make the NIT. Making a postseason tournament after last years crash and burn is positive improvement.
The only realistic chance for the Hogs to get an NCAA tournament birth is to win the SEC Tournament.

[RedSatinHog]

Alot on how our RPI improves hinges upon who we beat and who we lost to from here on out.  Sounds simplisitic, but it won't do anything for our program if we hand losses to teams like Tennessee and Vandy, while losing twice to LSU, if any of that were to ever happen.

In other words, we need to win the games we should win (at home AND on the road), and win a game or two which we weren't expected to win.