Oaklawn Thursday

[mckinneyhog5]

Love closing weekend but it gets much harder to find value and still cash a ticket.
Just finished looking over the first half of the card and see some interesting plays depending on post time odds.
The first race becomes wide open with the scratch of the 10 Niki's Rose. Intresting move in the first is 3 Endless Bloom. The 1st is a 15000NW2 but the 3 is still a maiden. Trained by Whited and switches to Franco in the irons. Showed good speed in last a MC12500 contest before fading and finishing 5th out of 11. Speed Numbers DO NOT qualify this mare with others. Coming back from a race 11 days ago. So what's the angle here the trainer is playing? This will be the horses 6th race this meet. My guess is the horse came out of last in good order with plenty of energy and the owners want one more shot before the meet closes. Adding Franco appears to signal they really beleive they have a shot. With a ML of 30-1 says this horse has no chance. Someone thinks it does have a chance otherwise there is no need to enter this horse in this race. May not be good enough for win but I wouldn't leave it off the exotic tickets.
Haven't made a decision yet on who I'll play but I'm currently trying to talk myself out of considering a Borel DD play.

[mckinneyhog5]

Gonna go with the 5 I Suspect Taylor. Will also use the 3 in some Ex and DDs. Will also play a small Borel DD.

[mckinneyhog5]

Gonna go with the 5 I Suspect Taylor. Will also use the 3 in some Ex and DDs. Will also play a small Borel DD.

On a side note...May be Suspect broke her maiden last year and the 2nd place finisher that race was Endless Bloom.

[Russ22]

Gonna go with the 5 I Suspect Taylor. Will also use the 3 in some Ex and DDs. Will also play a small Borel DD.

I picked "I Suspect Taylor" back on March 30. He stopped on me.  Cates is taking him back to 6 f after he won a 1 1/16 mi two races back. I guess he meets the conditions & there wasn't a route for him before the end of the meet?

Sorry to do this, but can you post how you are playing the DD? Is it a straight 11 with 3 or have you thrown others in?

I am really new to this whole deal...

[mckinneyhog5]

Late pick four...Pick4 04/13 OP - R7 - 1, 7 / R8 - 2, 3, 9 / R9 - 2, 6 / R10 - 1, 5, 6, 8

[mckinneyhog5]

I picked "I Suspect Taylor" back on March 30. He stopped on me.  Cates is taking him back to 6 f after he won a 1 1/16 mi two races back. I guess he meets the conditions & there wasn't a route for him before the end of the meet?
I just played some two dollar doubles with the top three in the second.

Sorry to do this, but can you post how you are playing the DD? Is it a straight 11 with 3 or have you thrown others in?

I am really new to this whole deal...

Yep on the DD often I'll play some small 2 dollar tickets usually a LS in the first with the top three choices in the DD pool or vice versa.

[Russ22]

Late pick four...Pick4 04/13 OP - R7 - 1, 7 / R8 - 2, 3, 9 / R9 - 2, 6 / R10 - 1, 5, 6, 8

Another dumb question. Would you do a late pick-3 with the same horses or does that make it too expensive for expected return?

That is, R8 - 2, 3, 9 / R9 - 2, 6 / R10 - 1, 5, 6, 8 [$12 ticket on 0.50 pick 3]

[mckinneyhog5]

Another dumb question. Would you do a late pick-3 with the same horses or does that make it too expensive for expected return?

That is, R8 - 2, 3, 9 / R9 - 2, 6 / R10 - 1, 5, 6, 8 [$12 ticket on 0.50 pick 3]

I like to hedge sometime so I'll start with a pick 4 and see how that goes and depending on results I might jump in on a Pick 3 after the first leg of pick four has gone.

[mckinneyhog5]

I really wish Oaklawn had rolling DD's..

[Russ22]

I like to hedge sometime so I'll start with a pick 4 and see how that goes and depending on results I might jump in on a Pick 3 after the first leg of pick four has gone.

So, you have a live ticket after race 7...What is the hedge?

[mckinneyhog5]

So, you have a live ticket after race 7...What is the hedge?

Pick 3 1/2,6/1,5,6,8
If I'm still alive after this race I'll look into some late DD's.

[Russ22]

Pick 3 1/2,6/1,5,6,8
If I'm still alive after this race I'll look into some late DD's.

Tell me to stop asking if this gets old. You took this pick 3 the 1 in R8 because it was left out of the Pick 4?

[mckinneyhog5]

Man I can't believe I missed that horse...bleed and stopped last race and has been throwing down some nice works...

[mckinneyhog5]

Tell me to stop asking if this gets old. You took this pick 3 the 1 in R8 because it was left out of the Pick 4?

I figured I had it covered with the 3 I picked and at the time the 1 seemed the most logical horse that could beat me.

[Russ22]

Man I can't believe I missed that horse...bleed and stopped last race and has been throwing down some nice works...

Transaction ID: a37c4-cd4d9
OP Race 8
Win
Horses 4
Bet Total $2.00

----
That's from my program. I put my picks out on my blog where I have a record, but I doubt anybody ever sees them. I don't trust them enough yet to throw them out to you guys.

[mckinneyhog5]

Playing a late DD $25 3/9

[Russ22]

Playing a late DD $25 3/9

I completely don't understand. Neither of those horses were in either the pick 4 or pick 3.  I think I should give up now before I go down this rabbit hole any further.

[Russ22]

I bet a DD $1  1,3/5,6,8

[mckinneyhog5]

Oh how I loathe favorites...