AJ Derby

[Inhogswetrust]

http://www.battleredblog.com/2011/4/27/2137559/odds-of-getting-a-pro-bowler-by-round-years-2000-2007

For players drafted from 2000-2007
First round: 12.5 players per year making pro-bowl
2nd round: 5.5
3rd round: 2.0
4th round: 2.375
5th round: 1.625
6th round: 1.5
7th round: 0.75
FA: 4.125

Essentially what you see there is an exponential function. The higher you are picked, the much more likely you are to be a successful player (before the argument is made that pro bowl is just popularity, 1/3 of pro-bowl voting is, but fans aren't the sole decider).

Nice work Benny! VERY interesting that FA's are higher than all but the first two rounds!

[bphi11ips]

It bugs me that no one ever holds him accountable when he gets his evaluations wrong.

The guy on his left griefed him a good bit and it obviously got under his skin.  At one point while the rest of the panel was cutting up Kiper was shuffling his deep stack of notes as if something in there was going to save his "Best Available" picks that kept sliding down the Board.

[Inhogswetrust]

The guy on his left griefed him a good bit and it obviously got under his skin.  At one point while the rest of the panel was cutting up Kiper was shuffling his deep stack of notes as if something in there was going to save his "Best Available" picks that kept sliding down the Board.

And people wonder why I don't like him and following "draft" experts in general.

[wholehog92]

Nice work Benny! VERY interesting that FA's are higher than all but the first two rounds!

That's because there's more of them.  That's like saying more 3 stars are drafted than 5 stars.

Derby is in a good situation at a well run franchise that likes to use the TE.  He's a hell of an athlete.  I was one of the guys griping about him, but it was because he was holding a QB spot.  My gripe was that he was a highly regarded LB in HS rated a high 4 star prospect and held an impressive offer list at linebacker.  We needed linebackers terribly bad and he wasn't a good QB option.  That was the gripe.  He chose TE rather than LB, both have similar athletic skill sets and body types.  He was a good asset for the hogs his senior season.

If he would have made the position move when he arrived, I'd bet his draft position and contract would both be better and the hogs would have benefited more.

I don't understand why people have to bring up that stuff in a thread clearly started to cheer on an ex-hog.  If you must, at least be accurate.

Good luck A.J. and thanks for the effort.

[Inhogswetrust]

That's because there's more of them.  That's like saying more 3 stars are drafted than 5 stars.

Good luck A.J. and thanks for the effort.

Of course! But it is still interesting.

[bennyl08]

I would totally agree that the number of players is the main contributor to the high UDFA number. I mean, teams will take at least five and often over 8 guys. So, in shear numbers they outweigh the entire draft. If you assume 6 players per team, then that is like having 0.6875 guys per "round" of FA, which is less than round 7.

However, I would add two things. First, you have some of the low character, high talent guys end up here. I mean, Collins the LT from LSU will likely be one of those UDFA pro-bowlers. However, given that nobody took a chance on him the entire draft, things could be worse for him than it seems. I mean, I assumed he would go from a top 10 or so pick to a top 20 pick. I mean, it seemed like he had some sort of relationship with this girl some time ago, the girl dies, police are simply doing due diligence talking to anybody who knew her. However, not being drafted at all hints to me that the NFL found out things may be worse than that.

Secondly, you have the chip effect. I believe that if the Patriots drafted Brady in the first round instead of the 6th, he would not have had the career that he has (I had to look up their first pick that year to make sure it wasn't Teddy Bruschi or Ty Law or somebody like that). I think that happens to a lot of other guys too. Maybe they had all the physical tools but lacked the work ethic up to that point.

[Iwastherein1969]

boy, some UA fans sure do have their "sacred cows" ....you know the guys who are beyond reproach...all I said is that he choked on one of the biggest plays in UA history and it most likely cost us a win over OSU and the Sugar Bowl championship....I NEVER, not one single time said he wasn't a great kid, because he was....DJ overcame obstacles in is life that would make most of us start selling drugs on the street...however, one must separate the personal with the professional and that is all I was doing...sorry if I permanently rustled anyone's jimmies in here....GO AJ GO!