10 games left, how do you see it finishing?

[Hogberry Snortcake]

I think we'll probably go 5-5 somehow. Our last two home games (Kentucky, Auburn) will be super-tough. The only road game that I see as being overly-tough is Alabama. For some reason, I think we can steal 2/3 of our next 3 road games. Mizzou looks like they are starting to crumble, but who knows where they'll be at as a team in that conference finale. That's one on the road we need to get, though.

I'm still thinking about 20-21 wins heading into the SEC Tournament, and that's a solid record given the strength of the conference this year. I do think this team has the potential to make a run in the postseason and I feel as though they haven't peaked yet.

I hope this is right.  I think they peaked in December. 

[Hawg Red]

I hope this is right.  I think they peaked in December.

The last 3 games have given me hope. They've been winning close games and even won one on the road. At some point, everyone will be clicking at the same time and the Hogs will be firing on all cylinders.

[ArkansasI]

Let's line 'em up:

at Texas A&M  -  L
at LSU  -  L
South Carolina  -  W
Vanderbilt  -  W
at Ole Miss  -  L
Texas A&M  -  W
Kentucky  -  W
at Alabama  -  L
Auburn  -  L
at Missouri  -  L


I've got us at 4-6, and hoping we play well enough to achieve that.  The Hogs are going to have to play lights out to win on the road.  While that is possible, we got hammered at home against LSU; and seemingly escaped with victories at home against Ole Miss and Missouri.  So, I don't know why anyone would predict wins at their arenas.

I'm not seeing any reason to be overly optimistic about A&M in College Station, but admit that I could see us somehow winning there.  I hope I got that one wrong.

Right now, I've got a loss at home to Auburn.  That team is crazy athletic, and their record lends me to believe they may beat us at BWA.  I hate Auburn - cheating bastards.  Hiring that SOB is an acknowledgement that they celebrate cheating.  I'm surprised that Auburn is not in Kentucky, where the Wildcats and Cardinals also pride themselves in being outlaws.

The prediction of a Kentucky win is wishful thinking.  Calipari - another cheating bastard - is developing that team quite well.  Calipari is a great coach that cheats.  Frankly, he may not have to cheat as much now as he did in the past...  Anyway, their win at West Virginia was impressive.  No reason to believe they can't or won't win in Fayetteville.  Calipari does a great job of coaching defense.  Did I mention that I hate Kentucky?

Bottom line, we could easily go 3-7, with 5-5 being hopeful.  I'm just glad we only had to play Florida and Mississippi State once each this year.  I don't think I'll ever get over how bad Kevaughn Allen makes the Hogs look.  MSU beat us in Starkville before 478 people while the Hogs were playing well.  I think Howland would take his and beat ours in Fayetteville.  Glad we won't find out.

[razobak]

Our remaining schedule is actually somewhat favorable for us:

1/30 @ TA&M
2/3 @ LSU
2/6 SCar
2/10 Vandy
2/13 @ Ole Miss
2/17 TA&M
2/20 UK
2/24 @ Bama
2/27 Auburn
3/3 @ Mizzou

Best case scenario I see us going 8-2, holding serve at home the rest of the way and dropping 2 of the three road games @ LSU, @ Bama, and @ Mizzou. I absolutely think we can handle UK and Auburn at home, I think the players will come out hyped for payback against LSU though, and TA&M is for some reason a dumpster fire right now and we should be able to steal one at their place tomorrow. If this happens I think we'll be somewhere around a 5-6 seed for the NCAAT with a record of 23-8 (12-6), as long as we don't flame out early in the SECT.

Worst case I see us going 3-7, losing all our road games and at home to UK and Auburn. If this happens, it would put us at 18-13 (7-11) and likely out of the NCAAT barring a miracle run at the SECT a la the 2006-2007 season (wound up getting a 12 seed and losing to USC in the first round of the NCAA).

Realistically? I see anywhere from 6-4 to 7-3 happening. I think we'll hold serve at home and maybe lose either to Auburn or UK, and go 2-3 on the road the rest of the way (the three games would be @Bama, @Mizzou and either @Miss or @LSU). I think that would garner us a 7 or 8 seed with a strong SECT showing.

[Hawg Red]

I've got us at 4-6, and hoping we play well enough to achieve that.  The Hogs are going to have to play lights out to win on the road.  While that is possible, we got hammered at home against LSU; and seemingly escaped with victories at home against Ole Miss and Missouri.  So, I don't know why anyone would predict wins at their arenas.

Here's why you can predict a win against LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri on the road -- because it really doesn't matter how we played them at home. I mean, obviously, it does in a matchup sense, but you're speaking strictly to margin of victory. In that context, it's really more about how well the team is playing at the time of the game. And even then, it really doesn't matter. Each game can be different in a game like basketball.

Here's an example of what I'm talking about -- we win by 1 at Vandy last year and then they demolish us at BWA. By your logic, that shouldn't have happened. Then we beat Vandy by 14 in Nashville in the SEC Tournament. Each game is different. Fans often like to assign a transitive property to outcomes of games. We barely beat some teams at home or lost by a lot to a team at home so we surely won't beat them on the road. Doesn't work like that. We're talking about teams with not a ton of separation between them, really. A Razorback fan can absolutely expect for the Hogs to win in Baton Rouge, Oxford, and Columbia because none of those teams are definitely better than Arkansas like a school like Florida or Auburn is. And we've won in all of those towns recently (even if we hadn't, again, doesn't really matter). Now, will the Hogs actually get the wins at those places is another story, but I don't see any reason why one would be out of line to expect it. LSU is 12-8. They aren't Florida or Auburn. We can win there if we can win at Georgia. Ole Miss is 11-10. I don't care what the road history is at Oxford, that isn't a particularly strong ball club. They could easily lose to the Hogs on their court just like we let them hang around on ours. Missouri is 13-8, currently on a 3-game losing streak, and their starting PG has been suspended. Why should I have to assume that's a loss?

[razorpimp]

Here's why you can predict a win against LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri on the road -- because it really doesn't better how we played them at home. I mean, obviously, it does in a matchup sense, but you're speaking strictly to margin of victory. In that context, it's really more about how well the team is playing at the time of the game. And even then, it really doesn't matter. Each game can be different in a game like basketball.

Here's an example of what I'm talking about -- we win by 1 at Vandy last year and then they demolish us at BWA. By your logic, that shouldn't have happened. Then we beat Vandy by 14 in Nashville in the SEC Tournament. Each game is different. Fans often like to assign a transitive property to outcomes of games. We barely beat some teams at home or lost by a lot to a team at home so we surely won't beat them on the road. Doesn't work like that. We're talking about teams with not a ton of separation between them, really. A Razorback fan can absolutely expect for the Hogs to win in Baton Rouge, Oxford, and Columbia because none of those teams are definitely better than Arkansas like a school like Florida or Auburn is. And we've won in all of those towns recently (even if we hadn't, again, doesn't really matter). Now, will the Hogs actually get the wins at those places is another story, but I don't see any reason why one would be out of line to expect it. LSU is 12-8. They aren't Florida or Auburn. We can win there if we can win at Georgia. Ole Miss is 11-10. I don't care what the road history is at Oxford, that isn't a particularly strong ball club. They could easily lose to the Hogs on their court just like we let them hang around on ours. Missouri is 13-8, currently on a 3-game losing streak, and their starting PG has been suspended. Why should I have to assume that's a loss?

Very good logical post

[razorpimp]

If this team plays defense the entire game like it did from 15 min - 2 min left in the second half of the OSU game + better shooting they could win 7-8 of their remaining games.....

I wish CMA would change up his rotations, quit pressing so much, and light a fire under their butts!

[ArkansasI]

Here's why you can predict a win against LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri on the road -- because it really doesn't matter how we played them at home. I mean, obviously, it does in a matchup sense, but you're speaking strictly to margin of victory. In that context, it's really more about how well the team is playing at the time of the game. And even then, it really doesn't matter. Each game can be different in a game like basketball.

Here's an example of what I'm talking about -- we win by 1 at Vandy last year and then they demolish us at BWA. By your logic, that shouldn't have happened. Then we beat Vandy by 14 in Nashville in the SEC Tournament. Each game is different. Fans often like to assign a transitive property to outcomes of games. We barely beat some teams at home or lost by a lot to a team at home so we surely won't beat them on the road. Doesn't work like that. We're talking about teams with not a ton of separation between them, really. A Razorback fan can absolutely expect for the Hogs to win in Baton Rouge, Oxford, and Columbia because none of those teams are definitely better than Arkansas like a school like Florida or Auburn is. And we've won in all of those towns recently (even if we hadn't, again, doesn't really matter). Now, will the Hogs actually get the wins at those places is another story, but I don't see any reason why one would be out of line to expect it. LSU is 12-8. They aren't Florida or Auburn. We can win there if we can win at Georgia. Ole Miss is 11-10. I don't care what the road history is at Oxford, that isn't a particularly strong ball club. They could easily lose to the Hogs on their court just like we let them hang around on ours. Missouri is 13-8, currently on a 3-game losing streak, and their starting PG has been suspended. Why should I have to assume that's a loss?

Good post.  You're right.

The Vandy thing last year may not be a great example though...  I was not surprised Vandy beat us at home because we had a miracle comeback in Nashville.  I'm sure they were amped to prove themselves.  The SEC tournament game was played a day after Vandy won a tough first round match-up, and the Hogs were fresh from a bye.

Still, you make excellent points.  Maybe I've grown to expect too little from our basketball team.

My concern with the Hogs is we appear to have one look that other teams appear prepared for.  It is a blast when we're playing well - especially against teams with far less talent.  When the opponent has comparable talent, we rely heavily on our shooters... we've got 3 of them and only one starts.

We foul away from the basket.  Defensive rotations often leave us with bad matchups.  We're not effective enough on D (producing turnovers) to account for our failure to box out.

Offensively, it looks like defenses have our motion offense figured out.  I think we'll continue to see a lot of 3-2 and 1-3-1 zones.  Our offense can work if we're shooting well and are quick enough to penetrate.  When we get a little gassed, it gets ugly fast.  We don't seem to show confidence passing the ball to our bigs.

This style of play has allowed Mike some success.  However, when he tightens up his substitutions, we are less effective.  Macon, Beard and Barford are seniors and deserve to play, but this style requires more Baily, Cook and Jones to be consistent.  We've got to keep moving... otherwise we make marginal teams look healthy - think about losses last year at Missouri, home to Vanderbilt and at Oklahoma State.  Too often we lose to teams with lesser talent, and get handled when our talent suggests we should be more competitive.

Maybe we should have another "fresh legs" thread.

GO HOGS!

[Cargill A. BullHog]

I think Coach Mike has really grown these last few weeks.  We're making more passes now, dribbling less, our players have shown that they are not afraid to shoot the ball, our defense is relying less on full court pressure, we've quit worrying about rebound differential and just focus on what we CAN do, and our freshman are starting to impose their footprints on the team.  I would nt be suprised if we ran the table to the SEC tourney, but I try to be realistic.  8-2 the rest of the way.  Then on to Atlanta, and hopefully a SECT win and a 3 seed in the big dance.  Go Hogs

[HF#1]

We lose next two, win the following 8 (peaking at wrong time). One and done in both tournaments.

[HawgTrough]

They're not playing very well and still winning. I say 5-5, but I'm optimistic they may hit their stride and go 7-3

[HF#1]

If this team plays defense the entire game like it did from 15 min - 2 min left in the second half of the OSU game + better shooting they could win 7-8 of their remaining games.....

I wish CMA would change up his rotations, quit pressing so much, and light a fire under their butts!

I think they need to press more and be more aggressive.

[hogsanity]

If this team plays defense the entire game like it did from 15 min - 2 min left in the second half of the OSU game + better shooting they could win 7-8 of their remaining games.....

I wish CMA would change up his rotations, quit pressing so much, and light a fire under their butts!

Everyone seems to be forgetting that defensive performance was against a team so depleted at guard, they had to play a walk on who had only played 18 mins all year, had not seen the floor in at least 5 games, and scored his only FG of the season. How much of it was improved D and how much of it was poor shooting due to fatigue? OSu still had several open looks.

That said, A&M is having guard issues right now too, which bodes well for the Hogs. LSu? Surely Mike will make some adjustments based on what LSu did in BWA. Vandy is not very good, especially away from home. SC plays a style the Hogs do not like, but the Hogs have better players. Bama presents matchup problems all over the floor, and KY is starting to come together. Auburn is tough this year anywhere, and also presents matchup problems. This game is in BWA, but Aub has no problems playing the way the Hogs want to play.

Unless A&m guards come back to life, Id say the Hogs go 6-4, wins over LSU, A&M (2), SC, Vandy, And one of 3 mizzu/bama/om.

[Dominicanhog]

Id say the Hogs go 6-4, wins over LSU, A&M (2), SC, Vandy, And one of 3 mizzu/bama/om.

Sunshine pumper...