Ncaa Tourney/RPI Discussion/Final RPI/Regionals Announced

[YtownHog]

RPI fell again after the win, now 50.  LSU was left out of the tourney a few years back with a high 30s RPI if I remember correctly.  I just don't have a warm and fuzzy feeling about things after that Friday night loss and how much it fell.

[TikiHog]

were a lock in the tournament...all depends a 2 or 3

[SPAL]

We are so far on the good side of the bubble, I think we could get swept to UGA and not be worried.

[Kevin]

We are in as a 2, imo

[jry04]

We are so far on the good side of the bubble, I think we could get swept to UGA and not be worried.

I would much rather not test that. A sweep to UGA would drop our RPI into the high 60s or low 70s.

[stan the man]

We go from maybe hosting a regional to wondering if we are going to the tournament after one loss?

[SPAL]

We go from maybe hosting a regional to wondering if we are going to the tournament after one loss?

We are hog fans....we are good at worrying.

[SPAL]

I would much rather not test that. A sweep to UGA would drop our RPI into the high 60s or low 70s.

I agree. I don't see it happening that way anyway.

[WilsonHog]

Hosting was always a long shot. We're solidly a #2 seed.

[YtownHog]

We go from maybe hosting a regional to wondering if we are going to the tournament after one loss?

Seems wild, but it's a legit question.  I'm curious what the highest RPI at large bid is in the past.  I too think we've done more than enough, but just thought I would ask.  I also know RPI is not the gospel, just look at Auburns RPI.

[Kevin]

So explain to me how someone with a sos of 117, can have an rpi of 21, with 34 wins.

Hogs 30 wins, SOS 43, but Rpi 50.

Total farce

[BroyledNutts]

Stop....take a breath....think logically.

Win two at GA and that's 17 wins - and 8 of 10 series with one weather induced split...and we'll finish in the top 5 of the conference...

Remember the selection committee is placing more emphasis on conference record and how you finished...
One win at Georgia and one or less at Hoover and we're a 3 or 4....
2 or more wins at GA and at least one at Hoover and we are a 2 seed...
Add to that a quality win against Creighton (hopefully) and the RPI should end in the 40s...same place we were last year when we got in...

We're in the NCAA....

[TikiHog]

we will be a 2 or 3 not a 4....they would leave us out before they would make us a 4

[TikiHog]

So explain to me how someone with a sos of 117, can have an rpi of 21, with 34 wins.

Hogs 30 wins, SOS 43, but Rpi 50.

Total farce

20-9 on the road...6-3 top 50...18-3 conf

what kills us his NC RPI 154 and NC SOS 210

[TikiHog]

according to Boyds World we have to win out just to get to top 45

[Kevin]

20-9 on the road...6-3 top 50...18-3 conf

what kills us his NC RPI 154 and NC SOS 210

That is why it is flawed.  Arkansas should never play 30 road games   

[jbell96]

So explain to me how someone with a sos of 117, can have an rpi of 21, with 34 wins.

Hogs 30 wins, SOS 43, but Rpi 50.

Total farce

What killed our non conference RPI & SOS is losing a series with Cal because of weather and having to play Eastern Illinois.

[Kevin]

What killed our non conference RPI & SOS is losing a series with Cal because of weather and having to play Eastern Illinois.

with the schedule we played we are still 67 spots higher in SOS

check out Iowa's schedule, plus, they do not play Illinios, or Ohio State in their league play.

[A_R_K_A_N_S_A_S]

We go from maybe hosting a regional to wondering if we are going to the tournament after one loss?

Well, it really is a fine line sometimes.

[Kevin]

wonder when the last time a sec team won 15 league games and did not get in

[Tusks]

what's the details on LSU's 30 RPI and didn't get in.  What was their conference record and overall record?

[ricepig]

what's the details on LSU's 30 RPI and didn't get in.  What was their conference record and overall record?

They finished last, or tied for last in the West, 13-17. We won the West with a 15-15 record. Their overall record was 36-20.


aTm finished 14-16 last year and made it, of course, they have someone on the committee. 

[Razorback7281]

wonder when the last time a sec team won 15 league games and did not get in

Probably hasn't happened since the tourney expanded to 64 teams in '99

[(notOM)Rebel123]

wonder when the last time a sec team won 15 league games and did not get in

Exactly. Let's not "overthink" the situation.

[Kevin]

Exactly. Let's not "overthink" the situation.

As biased as the rpi is to small schools and Midwest schools it might be a problem

[WilsonHog]

Can anyone name the last SEC team with 15 regular-season conference wins that did not make the NCAA Tournament?

[Wisco Pig]

Looks like the last time was 2007.  Alabama and Florida each finished 15-15 in league play that season but were left out of the NCAAs.   Florida finished 29-30 overall, and Bama was 31-26.

Arkansas was the #7 national seed in 2007, but lost in the Fayetteville regional to Oklahoma State.

[A_R_K_A_N_S_A_S]

They finished last, or tied for last in the West, 13-17. We won the West with a 15-15 record. Their overall record was 36-20.


aTm finished 14-16 last year and made it, of course, they have someone on the committee. 

If I remember correctly, that's the year that one of the committee members said Arkansas barely got in the tournament because they barely won their division of the SEC.  I think we won the division in the last game of the year against Ole Miss in a late inning come back. We would have finished 4th if we lost, if I remember correctly. Wait, maybe we started at #4 that day and finished #1.....something like that. Anyway, it was really jumbled and I think all but one team could have won it on the last day.

It seemed like the committee was giving equal value to all conferences across the country, judging by the decisions they made, which is just crazy wrong.

[A_R_K_A_N_S_A_S]

Looks like the last time was 2007.  Alabama and Florida each finished 15-15 in league play that season but were left out of the NCAAs.   Florida finished 29-30 overall, and Bama was 31-26.

Arkansas was the #7 national seed in 2007, but lost in the Fayetteville regional to Oklahoma State.

Which SEC team has had the highest RPI and not make the NCAA tournament? Auburn could break that record this year.

[Kevin]

I was listening to college sports on Sirius last night, they were talking about how the rpi, is skewed, and how the smaller schools, & northern schools are taking advantage of it in their scheduling.

[knoxvillehog]

Saw this on the D1 chat yesterday from Aaron Fitt. Response to a question about Arkansas, Kentucky and Missouri having sub par RPIs.


I'm not worried about Arkansas, despite the RPI, but the other three are all very much on the bubble. That Kentucky-Missouri series might very well amount to an elimination series for at-large hopes. Auburn absolutely cannot get swept at Florida, and even if it loses two out of three, it could be in trouble. 14 SEC wins is usually safe, but 13 is precarious. 12 is not enough.

[A_R_K_A_N_S_A_S]

Saw this on the D1 chat yesterday from Aaron Fitt. Response to a question about Arkansas, Kentucky and Missouri having sub par RPIs.


I'm not worried about Arkansas, despite the RPI, but the other three are all very much on the bubble. That Kentucky-Missouri series might very well amount to an elimination series for at-large hopes. Auburn absolutely cannot get swept at Florida, and even if it loses two out of three, it could be in trouble. 14 SEC wins is usually safe, but 13 is precarious. 12 is not enough.

Yep, I'm still hearing talk about the chance for only 6 or 7 SEC teams making the NCAAT. WE never know what the committee is going to do, but if these teams don't have a winning overall record, the committee can't use RPI to save them and if they are going to use conference performance as a major criteria, that very well could shorten the list of teams coming from the SEC in a big way. This is a BIG weekend for just about every team in the SEC, including us. 4 games under .500 in the SEC is tough, real tough to get in, but Auburn could pull it off because of everything else they have going for them and the fact that they may be scrambling to find enough SEC teams that are qualified.

I would love to see Auburn miss out on an At Large bid, especially with a good RPI (just to help prove a point or two), but I'll be rooting for Auburn to sweep Florida so as to help us out. Auburn cannot catch us, but we can catch Florida.

[SPAL]

Saw this on the D1 chat yesterday from Aaron Fitt. Response to a question about Arkansas, Kentucky and Missouri having sub par RPIs.


I'm not worried about Arkansas, despite the RPI, but the other three are all very much on the bubble. That Kentucky-Missouri series might very well amount to an elimination series for at-large hopes. Auburn absolutely cannot get swept at Florida, and even if it loses two out of three, it could be in trouble. 14 SEC wins is usually safe, but 13 is precarious. 12 is not enough.

I agree wholeheartedly.  We are in the tournament regardless of how it goes.

Kentucky is odd. They had played themselves into the tournament and were solidly in, now they have played themselves out. I do think they take mizzou. 

[Wisco Pig]

Which SEC team has had the highest RPI and not make the NCAA tournament? Auburn could break that record this year.

I poked around the Web for a while and couldn't find anything definitive, so I e-mailed Warren Nolan with the question.  We'll see whether he replies.  My guess is that the 2011 LSU team (mentioned above in this thread) will be hard to beat.

[WizardofhOgZ]

. . . that IF we prevailed in the first round (in Dallas), we'd then likely play @ Texas A&M. . . where we recently had great success.

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/baseball/bracketology

[King]

I know it is impossible with more than 8 teams from one conference, but isn't there at least some effort to avoid super-regional rematches with conference divisional rivals?

I certainly can't think of the last time Arkansas was paired with another SEC regional for supers.

[jry04]

. . . that IF we prevailed in the first round (in Dallas), we'd then likely play @ Texas A&M. . . where we recently had great success.

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/baseball/bracketology

I know all projections are just guesses, but I have trouble putting any stock into this website when their last two projections released had same conference opponents playing each other in a regional.

[Iwastherein1969]

I know all projections are just guesses, but I have trouble putting any stock into this website when their last two projections released had same conference opponents playing each other in a regional.

every goob on tv or print these days seems to be saying strange things...this eveing, the SEC baseball guru paired with Dari Nowkhah who was hosting the show SEC NOW, said that Arkansas had more work to do to get into the NCAA tournament....stated that if we get swept by UGA this weekend the Hogs would likely be on the outside looking in...then further said that Alabama, Georgia and Miss St was secure in their positions to get into the NCAA tournament...I'm like, 'did that guy really say what I think he said '? So I stayed up to see the re-run to check out if my nap earlier had affected my recollection of what the guy said, the answer was no, it had not, the guy (can't think of his name wish I could) kept on and on about the Hog's RPI and how it will keep us out of the NCAA tournament if we get swept at Athens or win one and do poorly in the SEC tournament.  The way I see it we are firmly entrenched in the NCAA tournament as a 3rd seed at worst, but then again, maybe I'm wrong.  Anyone ?

[Knot2brite]

If Missouri state has a regional...that is where we will be due to the fact that we will travel there in large numbers...make that money is the theme of the ncaa

[Kevin]

Love to go to Springfield

[A_R_K_A_N_S_A_S]

We are one of the better teams and hottest teams in the country and EVERYBODY knows that, including the selection committee members. If we qualify and they want us in the NCAAT, they will find a way to get us in there.  We do have work to do, we can't get swept at Georgia. On the other hand, we could end up a 2 seed and if we sweep Georgia and go real deep in the SECT and our RPI hits the mid 20's (not sure this possible) we could be talked about as a host. It's a very fine line we are walking.

If we get swept at Georgia and end up with a RPI in the 60/70's and a 15-14 SEC  record, we could be the first SEC team ever to have 15 wins and not make the NCAAT.

History of SEC teams making the NCAAT with:
15 wins = 100%
14 wins = 90%
13 wins = 16%
12 wins =  0%

The worst RPI a SEC team has ever had and received an at large bid in the NCAAT is #48.

This is a big weekend for us and the SEC.
http://www.hogville.net/yabbse/index.php?topic=592601.0

and
http://www.hogville.net/yabbse/index.php?topic=592716.0#lastPost

[bighog2255]

http://www.d1baseball.com/analysis/field-of-64-projections-week-14/

4 SEC teams on the bubble. Going to make for a crazy last weekend/tournament

UK (Last 5 out) @ Mizzu (last 5 in)
Auburn (Last 5 in) @ Florida
SCarolina (Last 5 out) vs LSU

Other 6 SEC teams:
LSU (#1 overall)
Florida (#6 overall)
A&M (host)
Vandy (host)
Ole Miss (2-seed)
Arkansas (2-seed)

[Jacob "2 Scoops" Johnson]

I would take that regional in a nanosecond.

[Kevin]

where do we sign up for that

[Kevin]

so the big ten gets 6 teams in

[TNhawgfan]

Sign me up as well. That's even better than Dallas

[BroyledNutts]

And paired with Florida State....

Expect riots in Tallahassee if that happens...

[Razorback7281]

And paired with Florida State....

Expect riots in Tallahassee if that happens...

They may be so distracted by being paired with the Hogs that they lay and egg and don't make it out of their regional.

[dotnet]

As long as Missouri State throws their ace in the first game... I don't care.

Or even better, if they save him and lose.  That would be perfect

[hawginbigd1]

Sign me up as well. That's even better than Dallas

Give me Dallas or let us host.