Annual conference expansion talks heat up - Big 12, SEC adding teams?

[Hugo Bezdek]

First of all it's not if we expand but who and when. Va. Tech will be one and UNC or NC State will be the other. It all depends on whether UNC bilieves they are too good for the SEC as UVA does. If so then NC State will be the choice, and that is the odds on choice at this juncture. Fla State does not really add anything to the footprint and now that Maryland has left,it narrows the footprint potential. The next year will bring Va. Tech and either UNC or NC State and there will probably not be any other options. Fla State seems to have been left out of the mix. No Duke in the mix, period. If UNC pushes Duke goodbye UNC.

Oh I agree the SEC expands but I was trying to make point we would opt out before adding schools that don't fit the desired profile.

We may very well end up with VT/NC State but the #2 team in Virginia and the #3 team in North Carolina is not the first choice. A UNC/Duke package would absolutely be considered. I don't think you can rule that out.

[Lysol]

I checked into this thread to give some facts and I did,but most of these 24 pages are just mindless speculation. When I get some new information I will return, but as I posted, my sources, in Birmingham and here in Texas are currently silent,when that changes I will check back but for now read the mindless speculation and waste your time. Good day and Happy New year.

I will watch for your posts sir

[texas tush hog]

I will watch for your posts sir

Appreciate that.

[elvis26]

  texas tush hog i am looking forward to your future info!!!!!!!! i hope the sec expands this year!!!!!!!!!!

[Murr]

Happy New Year everyone.

It's been quite over the bowl season mostly due to the administration of most schools being on vacation.  Boise State made their announcement on the 31st due to timing reasons.

The rumors have not changed much: uva's might still have some internal reluctance to overcome before a move to the B1G, the UMD-ACC lawsuit might be settled in mid January at the earliest, and FSU still weighing options.

GT and UVA are still considered 15 and 16 in the Big Ten.  The fight for UNC continues.  Fox wants more quality programing in the Big 12.  The dude thinks FSU might have a chance at the Big Ten (see his Jan 1st update at eersauthority.com) and that Clemson's and FSU's futures might not be a packaged deal(burnt bridges maybe).

[Brass Knob]

Cincy will never be in the SEC. However, when you talk about "bringing a state" from a TV standpoint it is not about how many people watch, but rather how many cable subscribers there are, so Cincy does not have to have a ton of TV viewers to be valuable. It is why Tulane got into Big East over many schools that put far more butts in the seats. The Big East wanted the New Orleans market for their TV contract. The SEC is obviously in a far better position than the Big East and can be more choosy. The ACC did not even consider Cincy when they added L'Ville (it was going to be either UCONN or L'Ville only) for a reason. VT and NC State are the best cultural fits and IMO will be the next added to the SEC. Slive wants no part of Duke, and I have a hard time seeing Duke and UNC split up. They may possibly land in the Big 10, but the Big 10 would probably take Virginia and GT in their next expansion sequence. 

[Hoggish1]

If UNC pushes Duke goodbye UNC.

Actually, I think Duke and UNC would be excellent options.  UNC for obvious reasons as a flagship high prestige nationally ranked academic institution.  Duke would balance Bandy very well as a private school (Vandy would move to West and East would have its counterpart in Duke in the East).  The SEC is not looking to add tough football powers, just footprint and NC schools fit that bill very nicely.

Bonus: Both provide a huge boost to basketball with tobacco road moved to the SEC (KY, NC, Duke).

[psooie]

"Slive wants no part of Duke?" from what i've read, slive's first choice is UNC and Duke package to get to 16. The sec doesn't need football powers but could use new markets, academic school's, and programs for its network like unc and duke basketball games. The better phrase might be duke and unc want no part of the sec and prefer to stick with the acc but the landscape might force them to consider the sec or the big 10. I don't believe UNC or Duke would bail on the acc unless other school's leave it first. If the big 10 lands UVA and Geo Tech than all bets are off. I could see the sec offer all 4 of unc, duke, nc state, and virg tech in that case to jump to 18. For the big 10, after getting UVa and Tech, they probably they will also target unc and duke. Expansion to 18 or 20 could happen for the big 10 or sec fast if somebody moves from the acc, 16 isn't' a magic number when prime schools want to move. The downside is the bigger the sec or big 10 get, they lose conference identity.

[GuvHog]

Actually, I think Duke and UNC would be excellent options.  UNC for obvious reasons as a flagship high prestige nationally ranked academic institution.  Duke would balance Bandy very well as a private school (Vandy would move to West and East would have its counterpart in Duke in the East).  The SEC is not looking to add tough football powers, just footprint and NC schools fit that bill very nicely.

Bonus: Both provide a huge boost to basketball with tobacco road moved to the SEC (KY, NC, Duke).

Missouri would move to the SEC West, not Vandy. It's already set to happen when the SEC adds 2 teams to the East.

I don't see the SEC inviting Duke or UNC because the SEC is a football first league so their additions would weaken the conferences football standing. Duke and UNC are both Basketball first schools and that just doesn't fit in the SEC.

[Brass Knob]

"Slive wants no part of Duke?" from what i've read, slive's first choice is UNC and Duke package to get to 16. The sec doesn't need football powers but could use new markets, academic school's, and programs for its network like unc and duke basketball games. The better phrase might be duke and unc want no part of the sec and prefer to stick with the acc but the landscape might force them to consider the sec or the big 10. I don't believe UNC or Duke would bail on the acc unless other school's leave it first. If the big 10 lands UVA and Geo Tech than all bets are off. I could see the sec offer all 4 of unc, duke, nc state, and virg tech in that case to jump to 18. For the big 10, after getting UVa and Tech, they probably they will also target unc and duke. Expansion to 18 or 20 could happen fast if somebody moves from the acc.

The SEC has always had a one school per state mentality. If they are unwilling to add FSU for that principle purpose; why in the world would they all of a sudden want three schools from North Carolina. I guess we have just heard different things (not really shocking with the unpredictability of this topic), but I do not think Slive wants Duke in any way. He would take UNC in a heart beat probably, but if comes down to a package UNC and Duke or NC State (plus a VT or similar school), I am willing to bet NC State gets the nod.

[GuvHog]

The SEC has always had a one school per state mentality. If they are unwilling to add FSU for that principle purpose; why in the world would they all of a sudden want three schools from North Carolina. I guess we have just heard different things (not really shocking with the unpredictability of this topic), but I do not think Slive wants Duke in any way. He would take UNC in a heart beat probably, but if comes down to a package UNC and Duke or NC State (plus a VT or similar school), I am willing to bet NC State gets the nod.

I agree, I believe NCSU and Virginia Tech will be invited to join the SEC.

[psooie]

I would bet ESPN would prefer UNC and Duke and so would the SEC college presidents. The sec doesn't need anymore football powers, the football coaches don't want them and their is a law of diminishing returns with adding school's like FSU. Also, the big 10 network model might go bye bye with ala carte programming, so the one state mentality isn't 100%. What do you think folks in NYC, LA or chicago want to watch UNC-DUke basketball game or Virg tech NC state football game?  If the sec network wants to go national, Duke and UNC basketball trumps other options.

[GuvHog]

I would bet ESPN would prefer UNC and Duke and so would the SEC college presidents. The sec doesn't need anymore football powers, the football coaches don't want them and their is a law of diminishing returns with adding school's like FSU. Also, the big 10 network model might go bye bye with ala carte programming, so the one state mentality isn't 100%. What do you think folks in NYC, LA or chicago want to watch UNC-DUke basketball game or Virg tech NC state football game?  If the sec network wants to go national, Duke and UNC basketball trumps other options.

IMHO the SEC will not invite 2 "Basketball first" Universities to join. Both NCSU and Virginia Tech are 2 sport schools.

[Tim Harris]

Actually, I think Duke and UNC would be excellent options.  UNC for obvious reasons as a flagship high prestige nationally ranked academic institution.  Duke would balance Bandy very well as a private school (Vandy would move to West and East would have its counterpart in Duke in the East).  The SEC is not looking to add tough football powers, just footprint and NC schools fit that bill very nicely.

Bonus: Both provide a huge boost to basketball with tobacco road moved to the SEC (KY, NC, Duke).

1 in Virginia and 1 in NC makes a lot more sense than adding a small private school in a state we already cover.

[Hugo Bezdek]

IMHO the SEC will not invite 2 "Basketball first" Universities to join. Both NCSU and Virginia Tech are 2 sport schools.

Staking a claim as the best conference in football, basketball, and baseball would have tremendous value for the SECN (and with CBS for that matter). The number of cable subs in these states does matter because of the multiplier but I think that point is somewhat oversimplified. You still have to negotiate a rate with the cablecos. Branding and viewership still matter. I'm not knocking NC State and Va Tech by any means but it's not a slam-dunk they would be more valuable than UNC/Duke. That's before you even begin to consider their potential value to the SECAC as research partners.

[Brass Knob]

Staking a claim as the best conference in football, basketball, and baseball would have tremendous value for the SECN (and with CBS for that matter). The number of cable subs in these states does matter because of the multiplier but I think that point is somewhat oversimplified. You still have to negotiate a rate with the cablecos. Branding and viewership still matter. I'm not knocking NC State and Va Tech by any means but it's not a slam-dunk they would be more valuable than UNC/Duke. That's before you even begin to consider their potential value to the SECAC as research partners.

NC State essentially brings the same viewers as Duke and UNC. VT brings DC, Baltimore, and Philly. It by itself offers way more than UNC and Duke combined. The SEC already has a tremendous brand and UNC + Duke does not make the SEC the best basketball conference...

[Murr]

NC State essentially brings the same viewers as Duke and UNC. VT brings DC, Baltimore, and Philly. It by itself offers way more than UNC and Duke combined. The SEC already has a tremendous brand and UNC + Duke does not make the SEC the best basketball conference...

True but does UNC + Duke paired with UK and UF improve basketball programming enough to provide more value than VT and NC State subscription fees?  Only the guys in Birmingham know.

[Hugo Bezdek]

True but does UNC + Duke paired with UK and UF improve basketball programming enough to provide more value than VT and NC State subscription fees?  Only the guys in Birmingham know.

With UNC and Duke in the SEC, member schools will have won 13 of the last 22 national championships and 6 of the last 8. Collectively the SEC member schools would have more national championships than any other conference.

[GuvHog]

With UNC and Duke in the SEC, member schools will have won 13 of the last 22 national championships and 6 of the last 8. Collectively the SEC member schools would have more national championships than any other conference.

I just don't see the SEC taking 2 schools that have the same TV market, that's why neither Georgia Tech nor Florida State have ever been seriously considered.

[Tim Harris]

True but does UNC + Duke paired with UK and UF improve basketball programming enough to provide more value than VT and NC State subscription fees?  Only the guys in Birmingham and on Hogville know.

Fixed it for you!

[Piggfoot]

The SEC is a football conference. The coup for the SEC  would be to bring in Oklahoma and Oklahoma State or perhaps TCU and Baylor ( both improving programs) . Placing them in the West and moving the Alabama schools to the East. The dividing line would be the Tennessee river.  You do realize that conference expansion in any form  will statistically reduce the possibility for the hogs to play in a BCS bowl unless they add more bowls or do away with the conference affiliations.

[Tim Harris]

The SEC is a football conference. The coup for the SEC  would be to bring in Oklahoma and Oklahoma State or perhaps TCU and Baylor ( both improving programs) . Placing them in the West and moving the Alabama schools to the East. The dividing line would be the Tennessee river.  You do realize that conference expansion in any form  will statistically reduce the possibility for the hogs to play in a BCS bowl unless they add more bowls or do away with the conference affiliations.

Bama won't go East.  That would put the majority of the power teams on that side.

[Brass Knob]

True but does UNC + Duke paired with UK and UF improve basketball programming enough to provide more value than VT and NC State subscription fees?  Only the guys in Birmingham know.

No. Just look at the Big East. Basketball has little to no relevance when negotiating TV contracts. Football and market size are what currently determine value. IMO it is why neither the Big 10 nor the SEC has the desire to add Duke. Both would take UNC because they have had relative success in football and given the appropriate attention has potential to be a good program. Basketball oriented athletic departments with good leadership have figured this out and have started focusing their time, money, and attention to football.

[GuvHog]

Bama won't go East.  That would put the majority of the power teams on that side.

Agreed. That's why I believe the next 2 members will come from the ACC.

[NaturalStateReb]

The SEC is a football conference. The coup for the SEC  would be to bring in Oklahoma and Oklahoma State or perhaps TCU and Baylor ( both improving programs) . Placing them in the West and moving the Alabama schools to the East. The dividing line would be the Tennessee river.  You do realize that conference expansion in any form  will statistically reduce the possibility for the hogs to play in a BCS bowl unless they add more bowls or do away with the conference affiliations.

The Big 12 grant of rights practically closed those schools off from realignment.  If the SEC is going to expand, it's going to look to the east, because that's where the viable targets are and for geographic balance.

For those saying that the SEC won't take two from the same state as an argument against UNC and Duke, I'm not sure that applies in this situation.  First, I think that really applies to states and schools already in the footprint (FSU, Clemson, and GT, for instance) but I don't think that necessarily applies to new states.  We're not carving up an existing member's turf in that case.

Second, UNC is the big get, the SEC's version of Notre Dame.  UNC is followed in-state in ways that UVA, VT, NC State, and others aren't, and it has a national basketball following.  If taking Duke is the price to get UNC, I think the SEC is willing to pay it.  Duke's no football threat, and taking them together insures market domination in North Carolina.  UNC baseball is pretty good, and SEC basketball would then have UNC, Duke, Kentucky, Florida, and Missouri, at the least. 

Third, UNC and Duke are both AAU schools and raise the overall academic reputation of the conference, which is a goal of SEC presidents.  I think part of the reason for taking Mizzou and A&M--both AAU schools--was to make the SEC sell on academics to ACC institutions easier in the next round of SEC expansion, if another round occurred.

I think UNC and Duke together are a completely viable option for the SEC.  It's not like VT is a panacea--they're not winning the ACC and they will only partially deliver markets.  UNC and Duke together completely deliver North Carolina and both have national followings in at least one sport that UVA, VT, and NC State cannot offer.

[Brass Knob]

The Big 12 grant of rights practically closed those schools off from realignment.  If the SEC is going to expand, it's going to look to the east, because that's where the viable targets are and for geographic balance.

For those saying that the SEC won't take two from the same state as an argument against UNC and Duke, I'm not sure that applies in this situation.  First, I think that really applies to states and schools already in the footprint (FSU, Clemson, and GT, for instance) but I don't think that necessarily applies to new states.  We're not carving up an existing member's turf in that case.

Second, UNC is the big get, the SEC's version of Notre Dame.  UNC is followed in-state in ways that UVA, VT, NC State, and others aren't, and it has a national basketball following.  If taking Duke is the price to get UNC, I think the SEC is willing to pay it.  Duke's no football threat, and taking them together insures market domination in North Carolina.  UNC baseball is pretty good, and SEC basketball would then have UNC, Duke, Kentucky, Florida, and Missouri, at the least. 

Third, UNC and Duke are both AAU schools and raise the overall academic reputation of the conference, which is a goal of SEC presidents.  I think part of the reason for taking Mizzou and A&M--both AAU schools--was to make the SEC sell on academics to ACC institutions easier in the next round of SEC expansion, if another round occurred.

I think UNC and Duke together are a completely viable option for the SEC.  It's not like VT is a panacea--they're not winning the ACC and they will only partially deliver markets.  UNC and Duke together completely deliver North Carolina and both have national followings in at least one sport that UVA, VT, and NC State cannot offer.

That is not how the media markets work though. It is not nec about how many people actually sit down and watch the games. Market size is how many TV sets have cable subscriptions, that is determining factor. Stadium size and game attendance has an impact but VT and NC State both do just fine in that regard. I am not sure how UNC or Duke stack up in those categories. Of course it is overly simplified what I said above, however, it is much more accurate to look at subscriber numbers than actual viewership numbers. Again, look at Tulane to the Big East over some of their other options. They brought the New Orleans market despite almost no following. Academics are nice but they will be thrown to the side if they are going to result in less money.

[GuvHog]

The Big 12 grant of rights practically closed those schools off from realignment.  If the SEC is going to expand, it's going to look to the east, because that's where the viable targets are and for geographic balance.

For those saying that the SEC won't take two from the same state as an argument against UNC and Duke, I'm not sure that applies in this situation.  First, I think that really applies to states and schools already in the footprint (FSU, Clemson, and GT, for instance) but I don't think that necessarily applies to new states.  We're not carving up an existing member's turf in that case.

Second, UNC is the big get, the SEC's version of Notre Dame.  UNC is followed in-state in ways that UVA, VT, NC State, and others aren't, and it has a national basketball following.  If taking Duke is the price to get UNC, I think the SEC is willing to pay it.  Duke's no football threat, and taking them together insures market domination in North Carolina.  UNC baseball is pretty good, and SEC basketball would then have UNC, Duke, Kentucky, Florida, and Missouri, at the least. 

Third, UNC and Duke are both AAU schools and raise the overall academic reputation of the conference, which is a goal of SEC presidents.  I think part of the reason for taking Mizzou and A&M--both AAU schools--was to make the SEC sell on academics to ACC institutions easier in the next round of SEC expansion, if another round occurred.

I think UNC and Duke together are a completely viable option for the SEC.  It's not like VT is a panacea--they're not winning the ACC and they will only partially deliver markets.  UNC and Duke together completely deliver North Carolina and both have national followings in at least one sport that UVA, VT, and NC State cannot offer.

Say what you want but rumors are flying that V Tech and NCSU will soon announce that they are leaving the ACC on July 1st, 2014 and will begin looking for a new conference very soon.

[Piggfoot]

Bama won't go East.  That would put the majority of the power teams on that side.

I know nothing about Conference agreements but if the money is right lawyers can find ways  around most agreements.
As far as the power distribution here is my opinion how it would arguably balance out today .

West                              East
LSU                                Alabama
Oklahoma                       Florida
A&M                               Georgia
Oklahoma State              S.  Carolina
Mississippi State              Vanderbilt
Mississippi                       Tennessee
Arkansas (kills me)          Auburn
Missouri                           Kentucky

I don't see a big difference in power with this and it would be regionally doable without a lot of travel. I realize this is just one scenario and like most other thoughts here doubtful.
                       

[twk]

Frankly, I don't buy that the SEC is in any hurry to expand. If you think 14 causes scheduling problems, wait until we go to 16 and have to start thinking about pods. That's going to be a bloodbath. I really think that, if Slive had his wish, the ACC would keep on trucking for a while--at least until the current SEC media deals expire (or shortly before that time). It would be best to give the leauge some time to digest the recent additions of A&M and Missouri before feeding again.

I could see taking Duke along with UNC if that was the price to ultimately get UNC, but, I think there would be a slight preference to get one of the Virginia schools and not concede the DC market to the Big Ten.  The one thing you can say about Duke, however, with regard to the SEC network, is that while they wouldn't bring you any spcecific geographic area, having Duke basketball games for programming in November through March (particularly for weeknights) would be a nice selling point when it comes to talking about what the subscription rates should be for the SEC Network. Basketball programming would account for a lot more air time on the SEC Network than football programming, and having Duke basketball as a brand to sell would help everywhere with the rate, rather than just helping you get on basic (as opposed to the sports tier) in some distinct geographic region.

As to short term strategy, I would approach UNC and UVA (yes, I'd go to them first--if we take Duke, it will be as a fall back) and tell them that there is no need to bring the ACC to a premature end--let things play out until the next decade. If things don't work out, there will be a place for you in the SEC. However, if you go to the Big Ten, understand that our next move will be to invite your in-state rival to take your place. UVA may have such a low prospect of their chances for success in the SEC that they would be willing to roll the dice on what VT in the SEC would do to their future (or whether the SEC would really follow through, knowing they might need that slot for Duke in order to entice UNC), but there's no way that UNC wants to see NC State in the SEC. NCSU has some basketball history to lean on, and if they were to become a force in football, they just might be able to turn the tables on UNC, or at least end UNC's dominance of the state.

On the Big XII grant of rights, I really think that the only way to bust that deal would be with the agreement of the Big XII's TV partners (ESPN and Fox), which means that the only possibility of escaping the Big XII (and it's a remote one, at that) would be to go to a league where the same two entities own the TV rights. The SEC does not fit that description--the Pac-12 does. Essentially, what would have to happen is that enough Big XII schools would have to find landing places (and want to do so) in order for the league to dissolve, and then you'd still have to placate the TV rights holders. Can you see Fox letting OU or Texas go to the SEC? I can't.

[texas tush hog]

I know nothing about Conference agreements but if the money is right lawyers can find ways  around most agreements.
As far as the power distribution here is my opinion how it would arguably balance out today .




West                              East
LSU                                Alabama
Oklahoma                       Florida
A&M                               Georgia
Oklahoma State              S.  Carolina
Mississippi State              Vanderbilt
Mississippi                       Tennessee
Arkansas (kills me)          Auburn
Missouri                           Kentucky

I don't see a big difference in power with this and it would be regionally doable without a lot of travel. I realize this is just one scenario and like most other thoughts here doubtful.
                       

It will never, and I repeat, will never happen, the next two SEC teams will come from Virginia and North Carolina, trust me. They will go east and Mizzou comes west. IMHO it will wind up being Va Tech and NC State although UNC would be desirable but they are too tied to UVA at this point, stay tuned. This scenario was sealed when Maryland bolted. As soon as they kick the ACC in the nads on the exit fee, others will beat the door down to get out.

[Hugo Bezdek]

I think in Slive's perfect world he would add UNC and UVA. I think most would be surprised that UVA was number two in the ACC behind FSU in total athletic revenues at $81M. UNC and Duke were 3 and 4 at about $78M. NC State and VT were 7 and 8 at around $64-65M.

[texas tush hog]

I think in Slive's perfect world he would add UNC and UVA. I think most would be surprised that UVA was number two in the ACC behind FSU in total athletic revenues at $81M. UNC and Duke were 3 and 4 at about $78M. NC State and VT were 7 and 8 at around $64-65M.

UVA  and UNC are like Notre Dame and Texas and neither have the football appeal that the Irish and sips have, but the PTB in the SEC, along with Slive don't see that the benefits are worth the price you have to pay to put up with them.

[Hugo Bezdek]

UVA  and UNC are like Notre Dame and Texas and neither have the football appeal that the Irish and sips have, but the PTB in the SEC, along with Slive don't see that the benefits are worth the price you have to pay to put up with them.

Maybe. But Slive is a UVA alum.

[texas tush hog]

Maybe. But Slive is a UVA alum.

Good point, I had forgotten about that, but he knows them well enough to know what I'm saying is true.

[Tim Harris]

Maybe. But Slive is a UVA alum.

He isnt going to play favorites because he is an alum there.

[Hugo Bezdek]

Good point, I had forgotten about that, but he knows them well enough to know what I'm saying is true.

Regardless it seems they are aligning with the B1G. UNC won't be left behind though.

[texas tush hog]

I guess this is the place for expansion rumors. A poster on another board, who has been consistent with tush an murr, said the changes will be after the bowls.

Murr works hard to get his info, mine comes easy by way of some well connected people. Murr is one of the few I read everyday to supplement what I am hearing from my sources. I was not referring to him in my little rant, he does good work from what I gather. I am not going to work that hard at it, as my daughter says "it is what it is," but Murr and the Dude are pretty well informed." I wish I had had some better sources during the coaching search, but Long was crafty as hell.All I am doing is trying to supplement Murr's info from people who have been spot on, so far. We are entering a new phase of college football. The SEC is not going to dilute a great product, but I know for a fact, that Slive intends to go to 16, but doubtful he goes beyond that. It is fun to watch the others scramble to keep up. And yes, it begins this spring.

[GuvHog]

It will look something like this:

West                              East
LSU                               North Carolina State
Auburn                           Florida
A&M                               Georgia
Alabama                         S. Carolina
Mississippi State              Vanderbilt
Mississippi                      Tennessee
Arkansas                        Virginia Tech
Missouri                          Kentucky

[texas tush hog]

It will look something like this:

West                              East
LSU                               North Carolina State
Auburn                           Florida
A&M                               Georgia
Alabama                         S. Carolina
Mississippi State              Vanderbilt
Mississippi                      Tennessee
Arkansas                        Virginia Tech
Missouri                          Kentucky

Guv are you trying to force me to agree with you?

[GuvHog]

Guv are you trying to force me to agree with you?

I'm not trying to force anything, I've believed this would happen for a long time and Douglas all but said the same thing if I remember correctly. If you'll recall; when the SEC went to 14 schools Virginia Tech tried to join but they were told "Not now, be patient" by Slive.

[Murr]

MHver3 tweets from today:

ACC is close to offering Uconn full membership and Cincy in FB only with provisions to join in all sports in the future. [could happen as soon as next week]

Both schools would receive a drastically smaller share if ACC tv revenues for quite some time.

ACC was warned by espn that MWC was going to double down on both those schools in an effort to get some eastern penetration.

The biggest surprise is that no one other than BC seems intent to try and stop it.

[Murr]

Murr works hard to get his info, mine comes easy by way of some well connected people. Murr is one of the few I read everyday to supplement what I am hearing from my sources. I was not referring to him in my little rant, he does good work from what I gather. I am not going to work that hard at it, as my daughter says "it is what it is," but Murr and the Dude are pretty well informed." I wish I had had some better sources during the coaching search, but Long was crafty as hell.All I am doing is trying to supplement Murr's info from people who have been spot on, so far. We are entering a new phase of college football. The SEC is not going to dilute a great product, but I know for a fact, that Slive intends to go to 16, but doubtful he goes beyond that. It is fun to watch the others scramble to keep up. And yes, it begins this spring.

I'm a realignment junkie.  I don't have access to any sources just the messengers.  I follow the Dude, MHver3 and Eerlaw on BGN; when they have chats on that board I go in there and ask questions like the others and manage to get a few more tidbits than what they have posted publicly.  I also leave a recap on their pay board for members that were unable to make it.

The majority of the stuff I post here and on hf.net is sourced or referenced info that I find credible enough to be worth discussion.  Brett McMurphy, ESPN, Wilner in California, CBS and a few others are more credible sources that I prefer to reference, but they usually don't report findings until it is further along down the process than say the twitter and message board guys do.

[texas tush hog]

I'm a realignment junkie.  I don't have access to any sources just the messengers.  I follow the Dude, MHver3 and Eerlaw on BGN; when they have chats on that board I go in there and ask questions like the others and manage to get a few more tidbits than what they have posted publicly.  I also leave a recap on their pay board for members that were unable to make it.

The majority of the stuff I post here and on hf.net is sourced or referenced info that I find credible enough to be worth discussion.  Brett McMurphy, ESPN, Wilner in California, CBS and a few others are more credible sources that I prefer to reference, but they usually don't report findings until it is further along down the process than say the twitter and message board guys do.

Keep up the good work, I will help when I can.

[texas tush hog]

I'm not trying to force anything, I've believed this would happen for a long time and Douglas all but said the same thing if I remember correctly. If you'll recall; when the SEC went to 14 schools Virginia Tech tried to join but they were told "Not now, be patient" by Slive.

Tongue in cheek, man, just a little chat board humor.

[Murr]

I believe Douglas said West Virginia and Florida State were the other two.

http://gridironhistory.com/forums/index.php?topic=355.0

Those were the other two schools that were voted on by the presidents when Mizzou was in the mix for #14.

Bascially A&M and OU were offered invites that summer, A&M joined, OU said they needed OSU to tag along, SEC said no, OU/OSU "wallflower" episode with the PAC, Big 12 about to implode again, Big 12 GOR, SEC talked to some new market ACC schools, number 14 came down to the linked choices.


The dismantling of the Big East continues,  MWC is contractually obligated to give SDST the first option at agreeing to terms to become the 12th member even though there is still some "butthurt" from some of the MWC Presidents:

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/8803804/mountain-west-conference-give-san-diego-state-aztecs-first-option-join

As part of Boise State's contract to remain in the Mountain West, obtained by ESPN, MWC presidents must set the terms of SDSU's return and present an offer to the school before moving on to other schools. The "right of first option" in the contract lasts until Jan. 31

A league source told ESPN Wednesday afternoon "right now the votes are not there for San Diego State."

Sources told ESPN that besides San Diego State and BYU, the Mountain West is considering Houston, SMU and UTEP. Houston and SMU are scheduled to join the Big East on July 1, 2013.

Other than San Diego State, Thompson will not name potential candidates but said his league has had contact with "five to six schools." League sources said the Mountain West remains undecided whether to expand to 12 or 14 schools.

Now if you couple those potential Big East loses with the rumors that UConn and Cincy could join the ACC, they there might not be a team left to pay the Big East exit fees to.

[Hugo Bezdek]

1 in Virginia and 1 in NC makes a lot more sense than adding a small private school in a state we already cover.

With Duke we're not talking about Rice or Wake Forest. Their enrollment is about the same as Ole Miss and larger than ours when we joined the SEC twenty years ago. They have a $6 Billion endowment. Last year they did $800M in research which would be tops in the SEC, 3rd in the B1G and 2nd in the PAC. They had $78M in athletic revenues. That's not exactly a small liberal arts school.

As alluded to in an earlier post the appeal of a UNC/Duke combo would be national. You not only negotiate a higher rate with cablecos in NC but possibly get better national distribution and better rates outside the SEC footprint because of the combined football/basketball content.

[NaturalStateReb]

That is not how the media markets work though. It is not nec about how many people actually sit down and watch the games. Market size is how many TV sets have cable subscriptions, that is determining factor. Stadium size and game attendance has an impact but VT and NC State both do just fine in that regard. I am not sure how UNC or Duke stack up in those categories. Of course it is overly simplified what I said above, however, it is much more accurate to look at subscriber numbers than actual viewership numbers. Again, look at Tulane to the Big East over some of their other options. They brought the New Orleans market despite almost no following. Academics are nice but they will be thrown to the side if they are going to result in less money.

You're right that it's not just about viewership numbers, but it is to some extent.  What's it's really about is convincing cable companies to carry your channel.  Take the Longhorn Network as an example--there are plenty of Longhorn fans in Texas, but few cable companies carrying LHN.  But what if there was a Texas network that carried Texas and A&M?  It'd be much harder for cable companies in that area to say no, and it would be more attractive out of region.  That's what I think the cable advantage of both UNC and Duke would have--it would make it harder for NC cable carriers to say no to the upcoming SEC Network and would add to the SEC Network's desirability out-of-region since both have some sort of national following in basketball.

[GuvHog]

You're right that it's not just about viewership numbers, but it is to some extent.  What's it's really about is convincing cable companies to carry your channel.  Take the Longhorn Network as an example--there are plenty of Longhorn fans in Texas, but few cable companies carrying LHN.  But what if there was a Texas network that carried Texas and A&M?  It'd be much harder for cable companies in that area to say no, and it would be more attractive out of region.  That's what I think the cable advantage of both UNC and Duke would have--it would make it harder for NC cable carriers to say no to the upcoming SEC Network and would add to the SEC Network's desirability out-of-region since both have some sort of national following in basketball.

The same thing would happen if NCSU were invited instead. They are just as popular in NC plus with Virginia Tech, they'd be adding some other huge markets. Too huge to ignore by inviting 2 schools from the state of NC while passing on V. Tech.

[texas tush hog]

The same thing would happen if NCSU were invited instead. They are just as popular in NC plus with Virginia Tech, they'd be adding some other huge markets. Too huge to ignore by inviting 2 schools from the state of NC while passing on V. Tech.

It may be past the point of no return on Va Tech and NC State. They are the last man standing at this juncture. UVA, and UNC have run out the clock and Slive appears to have moved on. Duke was probably never a serious player but UVA and UNC may have overplayed their hands. No other options are on the table, now that Maryland has moved on and UVA and UNC may have no other choice but to follow. If they play around much longer they may have to move to the Big XII with FSU and Clemson,especially if the ACC caves on Maryland. The Big East basketball schools secession is putting a lot of pressure on both the Beast and ACC. Listen close Murr and give us some updates, it looks like things are going to develop quickly accoording to the conversations at breakfast at the Cotton Bowl hotels yesterday and today.

[VBMark]

UVA has a national following and alumni base. It would open the VA/DC/MD markets like VATech never could.

They may be the stepchild on the gridiron, but they have better facilities and a better alumni base to compete in the arms race than VATech.