Observation on kickoff returns for all teams

[verticalhog]

On a touchback, the ball is brought out to the 25 yard line.  Yet, MANY KO returners just seem to have to run it out, often being tackled inside the 15 (and almost always the 20).  I cannot understand why special teams coaches don't instruct the KO returners to "play the odds" and even if the ball is only one yard deep to take the touchback with the ball on the 25 and no time running off of the clock.  This is just plain stupid!  Vent over.

[SultanofSwine]

Did you feel the same way when Felix, dMac or DJ were taking one to the house?

[31to6]

On a touchback, the ball is brought out to the 25 yard line.  Yet, MANY KO returners just seem to have to run it out, often being tackled inside the 15 (and almost always the 20).  I cannot understand why special teams coaches don't instruct the KO returners to "play the odds" and even if the ball is only one yard deep to take the touchback with the ball on the 25 and no time running off of the clock.  This is just plain stupid!  Vent over.

KO returns are opportunities for one of your best playmakers to get the ball in space.

I think that if you are sure you can get close to the 20, you should run it out, because you never know when one is going to break open.

Which is better field position for a game: 25, 25, 25, 25 or 18, 23, opp45, 22 ?

[WoodyHog]

On a touchback, the ball is brought out to the 25 yard line.  Yet, MANY KO returners just seem to have to run it out, often being tackled inside the 15 (and almost always the 20).  I cannot understand why special teams coaches don't instruct the KO returners to "play the odds" and even if the ball is only one yard deep to take the touchback with the ball on the 25 and no time running off of the clock.  This is just plain stupid!  Vent over.

You would rather take the ball at the 20 yard line 9 times, and score a TD 1 time, then get it at the 25 yard line every time.  If you come out of the front of the end zone, you almost always get close to the 20 and the opportunity for a big play is worth the small amount of yardage that you give up.

[verticalhog]

I'm a statistician so I play the odds.  So, yes, I'd rather have it at the 25 yard line every time than have it on the 7, 12, 18, etc.  Do we have a Felix or DMac on this team?  The interesting thing is that as a team gets desperate (i.e., further behind) their decision making gets worse.  Just start keeping an eye on this in all games you watch (even in the pros).  There is some incredibly poor decision making on when to bring out a kick.  Heck, some KR's even try to pick up a ball when it's obviously headed out of bounds and would have been at the 35.  You need to "play the averages."  Good coaching tells you to do just that (e.g., don't field a punt inside the 10).

[31to6]

I'm a statistician so I play the odds.  So, yes, I'd rather have it at the 25 yard line every time than have it on the 7, 12, 18, etc.  Do we have a Felix or DMac on this team?  The interesting thing is that as a team gets desperate (i.e., further behind) their decision making gets worse.  Just start keeping an eye on this in all games you watch (even in the pros).  There is some incredibly poor decision making on when to bring out a kick.  Heck, some KR's even try to pick up a ball when it's obviously headed out of bounds and would have been at the 35.  You need to "play the averages."  Good coaching tells you to do just that (e.g., don't field a punt inside the 10).

When you run it out of the EZ you are unlikely to fail to get the ball past the 15:


Field position is strongly correlated with scoring success.


Roughly 25% of all starting field position is the result of kickoffs and teams who win the starting field position battle by more than 5 yards win the game 78% of the time.
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/1/24/5337968/college-football-five-factors

[verticalhog]

Thank you for the supporting data!!!  The most likely outcome (by far) when running the ball out of the end zone is field position inside the 25 yard line (in fact, if you add it up, it's over 2/3 of the time).  So, take a knee!!!  Give your team a better chance to win.

[Tortfeasor]

I just wish we had a kicker that could kick it into the end zone.

[verticalhog]

I just wish we had a kicker that could kick it into the end zone.

AMEN times infinity!!!

[passinghog]

In college, if it's 4 yards deep or closer, you take it out. 5 yards deep and further, take a knee. Save the stat junkies.

In the NFL you should take it out because you get so few opportunities with KOs that aren't kicked out of the back of the EZ.

[sickboy]

In college, if it's 4 yards deep or closer, you take it out. 5 yards deep and further, take a knee. Save the stat junkies.

In the NFL you should take it out because you get so few opportunities with KOs that aren't kicked out of the back of the EZ.

This

[WoodyHog]

Thank you for the supporting data!!!  The most likely outcome (by far) when running the ball out of the end zone is field position inside the 25 yard line (in fact, if you add it up, it's over 2/3 of the time).  So, take a knee!!!  Give your team a better chance to win.

Are you sure his data supports your conclusion?  I don't really see it that way.  Based upon those two graphs, I would say that its a close call.  You are likely to get the ball past the 15 yard line if you run it out of the endzone, and the difference in points scored between starting field position of the 15 and 25 isn't that great.  Its fact dependent, but if a team has a decent return game, it very well could be the better statistical decision to return the ball.  The potential upside outweighs expected difference in starting field position.

Another interesting graph would be the number of fumbles lost on returns out of the endzone compared against the number of touchdowns scored returning out of the endzone.  If that is factored in, it might weigh in favor of just taking the knee.  But again, very team and player specific, so I don't think you could make a blanket statement that its a good or bad idea. 

[Jackrabbit Hog]

FWIW, one reason we've lost so many close games under CBB is because our special teams haven't been very special lately.  We were fortunate against Tennessee because our offense and defense both outplayed theirs pretty decisively, but their special teams clearly outplayed ours.  Not sure why this is, but we just don't seem to cover kicks well this year or return them well either, for that matter (JC's nullified punt returns excepted).

[31to6]

FWIW, one reason we've lost so many close games under CBB is because our special teams haven't been very special lately.  We were fortunate against Tennessee because our offense and defense both outplayed theirs pretty decisively, but their special teams clearly outplayed ours.  Not sure why this is, but we just don't seem to cover kicks well this year or return them well either, for that matter (JC's nullified punt returns excepted).

Team speed is critical for special teams. I think we have a lot of our speed nursing injuries or at positions so shallow we can't risk them getting injured.

[31to6]

Are you sure his data supports your conclusion?  I don't really see it that way.  Based upon those two graphs, I would say that its a close call.  You are likely to get the ball past the 15 yard line if you run it out of the endzone, and the difference in points scored between starting field position of the 15 and 25 isn't that great.  Its fact dependent, but if a team has a decent return game, it very well could be the better statistical decision to return the ball.  The potential upside outweighs expected difference in starting field position.

Another interesting graph would be the number of fumbles lost on returns out of the endzone compared against the number of touchdowns scored returning out of the endzone.  If that is factored in, it might weigh in favor of just taking the knee.  But again, very team and player specific, so I don't think you could make a blanket statement that its a good or bad idea. 

I don't have time to do it, but the right way to handle the data would probably be to take the % chance of return yardage and weight it with the expected points for starting field position.

[Danny J]

Wish we had a guy capable of consistently kicking it into the endzone.

[31to6]

Wish we had a guy capable of consistently kicking it into the endzone.

Hocker was a weapon.

We miss him.

[hobhog]

I have no expertise in this area, but our KRs seem really hesitant on our returns and run into our own blockers a lot. Jo Jo and Edwards don't seem to have "it", but maybe it is the blocking....?

[Bacons Rebellion]

I don't have time to do it, but the right way to handle the data would probably be to take the % chance of return yardage and weight it with the expected points for starting field position.

I agree. Minus the percentage chance for a fumble times the expected value of points for defender's starting field position after the lost fumble.

I'm quite happy to take the touchback, especially now that you get the ball at the 25, but honestly the slope of expected points between your own 20 and your own 25 looks pretty low.

[31to6]

I have no expertise in this area, but our KRs seem really hesitant on our returns and run into our own blockers a lot. Jo Jo and Edwards don't seem to have "it", but maybe it is the blocking....?

The article I drew the data from was focussing on the fact that some teams are really good at special teams (either at kick coverage, which is *grossly* underrated) and at kick returns and that, for those team that are good at KR, the risk/reward calculation for running the ball out of the EZ is heavily skewed in favor of returning the kick rather than taking a knee.

That's the X-factor. If you suck at kick return, take the 25. But, on the other hand, if you never run it back, you will never improve. Catch-22.

As an Arkansas fan, I still hold my breath every kick (and definitely every punt) just hoping we field it cleanly. That, at least, has not been a problem for us recently. *knock on wood*

[Bacons Rebellion]

FWIW, one reason we've lost so many close games under CBB is because our special teams haven't been very special lately.  We were fortunate against Tennessee because our offense and defense both outplayed theirs pretty decisively, but their special teams clearly outplayed ours.  Not sure why this is, but we just don't seem to cover kicks well this year or return them well either, for that matter (JC's nullified punt returns excepted).

I agree with 31t6. Kick coverage is all about speed and tackling. When you just get "better" as a team your special teams improve. When you have second teamers with speed and tackling ability (that means your are "good") then these guys are fresh and perform well on special teams and don't have any temptation to take a kick off because they are tired.

Kick return is usually about having some athlete with a knack for seeing the crease and accelerating.

Career (Min. 20 returns)
1. 28.21 Felix Jones (62 for 1749 yards) 2005-07
2. 26.14 Dickey Morton (22 for 575 yards) 1971-73
3. 25.03 Ron Dickerson (31 for 776 yards) 1989-92
4. 24.80 Korliss Marshall (28 for 693 yards) 2013-14
5. 24.40 Darren McFadden (38 for 926 yards) 2005-07
6. 23.87 Lance Alworth (31 for 740 yards) 1959-61
7. 23.63 Carl Miller (43 for 1016 yards) 1983-85
8. 23.39 Dennis Johnson (119 for 2784 yards) 2008-12
9. 22.48 David Dickey (21 for 472 yards) 1966-68
10. 22.29 Jon Richardson (35 for 780 yards) 1970-72