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2017 MLB Draft Thread

Started by ucahogfan, May 24, 2017, 09:20:16 pm

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bulldog04

Tillo signed for 557,500. Slot was 607,300

PintailKiller

Quote from: bulldog04 on June 20, 2017, 12:28:27 pm
Tillo signed for 557,500. Slot was 607,300

Disappointing IMO.  Thought he could come for 1 year and really jump up after working with Coach Johnson.  Never like seeing recruits sign for under slot.
"Just take the ball and throw it where you want to. Throw strikes. Home plate don't move."

 

SPAL

Once he was drafted that early, he was never coming.

Youngsta71701

Quote from: JonClaudeVanHam on June 15, 2017, 10:27:02 am
He would lose money. He's gone.
He would lose money how? Please explain...
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

spe450

Quote from: Youngsta71701 on June 20, 2017, 02:04:56 pm
He would lose money how? Please explain...

Leverage.  If he comes back and leaves as a senior, even if he improves his numbers, they can pay him less since he has nowhere else to go.

gutshot

Seniors make peanuts.  The Braves 7th round pick (a college Senior) just signed for $1,000.  It's brutal, but they have no negotiating leverage. 

Youngsta71701

Quote from: spe450 on June 20, 2017, 02:11:16 pm
Leverage.  If he comes back and leaves as a senior, even if he improves his numbers, they can pay him less since he has nowhere else to go.
Ok, good point. Gotcha. That is understandable. But what if he tore it up his whole senior season like he did toward the end of this past year? What would that do? That would have to do something to change that logic wouldn't it?
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

k.c.hawg

Quote from: Youngsta71701 on June 20, 2017, 02:24:05 pm
Ok, good point. Gotcha. That is understandable. But what if he tore it up his whole senior season like he did toward the end of this past year? What would that do? That would have to do something to change that logic wouldn't it?

Nope. Here is the reality check for seniors. With a draft pool in place seniors have it worse than ever before. They steal from college players to overpay high schoolers that are high picks. If you don't sign a high pick you lose that slot money from your pool. Thus, they overpay.


Those with the least amount of leverage are college seniors.  This has been the case without reference to the specific terms of the collective bargaining agreement that teams and players operate under.  Teams are in a position to tell college seniors, "take it, or leave it," and if said players decline their offers, they often must look at independent baseball leagues as placeholders until they are able to once again test the MLB market.  This is far from an optimal situation for those athletes.

Just how bad do MLB-bound college seniors have it?  In a forthcoming law journal article titled, Foul Ball: Major League Baseball's CBA Exploits College Seniors in the MLB Draft, author Jonathan Gordon sifted through the college seniors drafted in the first 10 rounds of the 2013 MLB Draft and found that those players signed on average for only 19.77% of the recommended amount at their respective slots.   A total of 57 college seniors were drafted in the first 10 rounds and all 57 signed with the teams that selected them.  Meanwhile, high school seniors drafted in the same rounds, and certainly controlling more leverage in negotiations, were able to command roughly 20% above their recommended slot values.



So a college Senior gets less than 20% of his slot money while a high School kid gets 120%!!!
Just sitting on the deck with a cold beer and a hot tequila watching the razorbacks roam.

jabberjawls


Youngsta71701

Quote from: k.c.hawg on June 20, 2017, 02:52:57 pm
Nope. Here is the reality check for seniors. With a draft pool in place seniors have it worse than ever before. They steal from college players to overpay high schoolers that are high picks. If you don't sign a high pick you lose that slot money from your pool. Thus, they overpay.


Those with the least amount of leverage are college seniors.  This has been the case without reference to the specific terms of the collective bargaining agreement that teams and players operate under.  Teams are in a position to tell college seniors, "take it, or leave it," and if said players decline their offers, they often must look at independent baseball leagues as placeholders until they are able to once again test the MLB market.  This is far from an optimal situation for those athletes.

Just how bad do MLB-bound college seniors have it?  In a forthcoming law journal article titled, Foul Ball: Major League Baseball's CBA Exploits College Seniors in the MLB Draft, author Jonathan Gordon sifted through the college seniors drafted in the first 10 rounds of the 2013 MLB Draft and found that those players signed on average for only 19.77% of the recommended amount at their respective slots.   A total of 57 college seniors were drafted in the first 10 rounds and all 57 signed with the teams that selected them.  Meanwhile, high school seniors drafted in the same rounds, and certainly controlling more leverage in negotiations, were able to command roughly 20% above their recommended slot values.



So a college Senior gets less than 20% of his slot money while a high School kid gets 120%!!!
Now that's just wrong and unethical!
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

ucahogfan

Saw on Twitter that Canaan Smith signed with the Yankees for $497,500 which was over slot if I remember correctly.

bulldog04

Dakota Bennett signed also

texas tush hog

June 20, 2017, 07:36:19 pm #462 Last Edit: June 20, 2017, 08:01:15 pm by texas tush hog
Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on June 20, 2017, 06:46:13 pm
Signed for $10,000 for a slot of 139,700.




They call $10,000.00 senior money. You're lucky to get that. Come back after your junior year and lose $50,000 to 100,000. Then you make $1500.00 a month your first year.


http://www.yougoprobaseball.com/how-much-money-do-minor-league-baseball-players-make-get-paid.html

 

Hogs49ers

Dang that is rough...There are scenarios where coveted seniors still get paid good slot money right??  Like if Bonfield goes off next year and a bunch of teams are after him and he goes in the 6-7th round, he could make close to slot value right?'

Anyone know what Taco signed for yet?
SCREW Vandy!

texas tush hog

Quote from: Hogs49ers on June 20, 2017, 07:58:06 pm
Dang that is rough...There are scenarios where coveted seniors still get paid good slot money right??  Like if Bonfield goes off next year and a bunch of teams are after him and he goes in the 6-7th round, he could make close to slot value right?'

Anyone know what Taco signed for yet?

Senior money is normally $10,000.

SPAL

Quote from: Hogs49ers on June 20, 2017, 07:58:06 pm
Dang that is rough...There are scenarios where coveted seniors still get paid good slot money right??  Like if Bonfield goes off next year and a bunch of teams are after him and he goes in the 6-7th round, he could make close to slot value right?'

Anyone know what Taco signed for yet?

He hasn't. Each player has their own thread and I will update when they sign.

thebignasty

Quote from: Youngsta71701 on June 20, 2017, 03:40:58 pm
Now that's just wrong and unethical!

Makes sense from a negotiation perspective
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Hogs49ers

SCREW Vandy!

Hogs49ers

Quote from: thebignasty on June 20, 2017, 08:32:19 pm
Makes sense from a negotiation perspective

Yes, I agree.  I think sometimes people lose sight that the MLB is a business. 
SCREW Vandy!

SPAL

I moved some of the chatter about signing money to the draft thread. I wanna keep the player pages for news, updates, and stats.

Youngsta71701

Quote from: thebignasty on June 20, 2017, 08:32:19 pm
Makes sense from a negotiation perspective
No doubt. Sucks for the seniors though. You get punished for trying to do the right thing and finish school. Now if you've graduate already as a redshirt sophomore or a junior then that's a different story.
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

Youngsta71701

Quote from: Hogs49ers on June 20, 2017, 08:36:10 pm
Yes, I agree.  I think sometimes people lose sight that the MLB is a business.
Everything is a business. Including youth baseball.
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

spe450

Quote from: Youngsta71701 on June 21, 2017, 07:49:55 am
No doubt. Sucks for the seniors though. You get punished for trying to do the right thing and finish school. Now if you've graduate already as a redshirt sophomore or a junior then that's a different story.

The players are mostly having to pay their own way anyway.  It's always a good choice to leave as a junior if you are drafted high.  They can come back and finish school in the off season if they want.

DiamondHogFan

This is where draft eligible sophomores have it made.  They have 2 years worth of negotiations while in college ball.  If you want to go pro and think it's going to take 4 years of college to get your ready for that, you should do all you can to redshirt your freshman year.

 

dotnet

Quote from: DiamondHogFan on June 21, 2017, 09:01:38 am
This is where draft eligible sophomores have it made.  They have 2 years worth of negotiations while in college ball.  If you want to go pro and think it's going to take 4 years of college to get your ready for that, you should do all you can to redshirt your freshman year.

If it takes you 4 years of college ball to get ready for going pro, then you're not good enough for the soph leverage year to matter. 

If you're good enough to go pro, then the lost year of earnings due to the redshirt and just the blahness of not getting to play your (theoretically) favorite game for a season are not worth the potential leverage

Youngsta71701

Quote from: dotnet on June 21, 2017, 09:40:45 am
If it takes you 4 years of college ball to get ready for going pro, then you're not good enough for the soph leverage year to matter. 

If you're good enough to go pro, then the lost year of earnings due to the redshirt and just the blahness of not getting to play your (theoretically) favorite game for a season are not worth the potential leverage
There is such a thing called development you know. There are late bloomers. Mike Piazza for example. Do you know what round he was drafted in?
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

boaron

Quote from: texas tush hog on June 20, 2017, 08:03:26 pm
Senior money is normally $10,000.

I just noticed the Cardinals signed their 9th and 10th round picks, both LHP srs, for $3000 each.  A JR may not like getting drafted low but, as far as bonus is concerned, they sure need to weigh the odds.

DiamondHogFan

Quote from: dotnet on June 21, 2017, 09:40:45 am
If it takes you 4 years of college ball to get ready for going pro, then you're not good enough for the soph leverage year to matter. 

If you're good enough to go pro, then the lost year of earnings due to the redshirt and just the blahness of not getting to play your (theoretically) favorite game for a season are not worth the potential leverage
I see your point, but I think the sophomore leverage year matters no matter how good you are.  The more times a prospect can get in the draft and build relationships with those big league teams, the better off they are for once they finally get there (if they are lucky enough to do so). 

The jump that Benintendi made from his Freshman to Sophomore season was incredible.  You never know when a jump like that may occur.

I just think that if possible, a redshirt year may benefit some guys when it comes to draft time a few years later.  It is kind of a hindsight thing, but just an observation after seeing how the draft usually plays out.  The more chances they have to get themselves in the best position possible to get the biggest signing bonus possible, the better off they are.

jry04

June 21, 2017, 01:04:19 pm #478 Last Edit: June 21, 2017, 01:15:24 pm by jry04
Quote from: boaron on June 21, 2017, 11:04:04 am
I just noticed the Cardinals signed their 9th and 10th round picks, both LHP srs, for $3000 each.  A JR may not like getting drafted low but, as far as bonus is concerned, they sure need to weigh the odds.
They definitely lose a lot of leverage, but people throw out that seniors don't get paid simply because good juniors rarely come back. Most of those guys signing for $10,000> are guys that go rounds 7-10 and are agreeing to a lower signing bonus because they aren't guaranteed to get drafted. Chadwick wasn't going to get drafted, or if he was it was going to be late. By him agreeing to take $10,000 in the 9th round, he guaranteed that team would have over $100,000 extra for other drafted players. His alternative was likely not being drafted at all, or going around when Alberius does and not getting much pay. Sometimes seniors have better chances of getting drafted higher because of how little they will take to sign. Not all seniors drafted go for cheap, but they do go for underslot. A guy like Kramer Robertson went in the 4th round. He isn't going to sign for $10,000. If that were a possibility, then he wouldn't have returned. He was drafted at a slot value of over $400k. He will probably end up signing for $250k. They aren't taking a guy in the 4th round to sign for $10k.


There are all these numbers that support seniors signing for peanuts. The reason being is most juniors who are serious MLB draft prospects go pro. There are not a lot of really good seniors, so seniors are looked at as guys who will sign below slot and save money so they can try to convince better prospects in later rounds. If you are good and you are a senior you will still get paid.  Mark Appel is another example. He made the rare decision to return to school as a senior. He ended up signing for $6 million, but was still over $1 million under slot. He rejected over $6 million from the Astros and fell in the draft to 8th, and rejected over $3 million from the Pirates who took him. They could have easily said "take $10,000 or leave it because you are a senior and do not have an option." However, these guys with talent are guys they hope to develop and they aren't going to start off with a terrible relationship by paying a top talent that low even though they wouldn't have a choice if presented. We just don't see good seniors in college much anymore, so those examples are rare.

Stephan made the right decision 100%, but had he returned they wouldn't have automatically offered him less than $100k because he is a senior. He still would have made A LOT of money.

jry04

June 21, 2017, 01:21:54 pm #479 Last Edit: June 21, 2017, 02:52:52 pm by jry04
Quote from: k.c.hawg on June 20, 2017, 02:52:57 pm
Nope. Here is the reality check for seniors. With a draft pool in place seniors have it worse than ever before. They steal from college players to overpay high schoolers that are high picks. If you don't sign a high pick you lose that slot money from your pool. Thus, they overpay.


Those with the least amount of leverage are college seniors.  This has been the case without reference to the specific terms of the collective bargaining agreement that teams and players operate under.  Teams are in a position to tell college seniors, "take it, or leave it," and if said players decline their offers, they often must look at independent baseball leagues as placeholders until they are able to once again test the MLB market.  This is far from an optimal situation for those athletes.

Just how bad do MLB-bound college seniors have it?  In a forthcoming law journal article titled, Foul Ball: Major League Baseball's CBA Exploits College Seniors in the MLB Draft, author Jonathan Gordon sifted through the college seniors drafted in the first 10 rounds of the 2013 MLB Draft and found that those players signed on average for only 19.77% of the recommended amount at their respective slots.   A total of 57 college seniors were drafted in the first 10 rounds and all 57 signed with the teams that selected them.  Meanwhile, high school seniors drafted in the same rounds, and certainly controlling more leverage in negotiations, were able to command roughly 20% above their recommended slot values.



So a college Senior gets less than 20% of his slot money while a high School kid gets 120%!!!
I mentioned this in another thread, but these numbers are a bit slanted. The reason being we don't see quality seniors in the draft very often. Most good prospects who are juniors go pro, so the amount of good seniors are very low. A lot of these seniors being taken in the top 10 rounds are guys who have little to no chance of being drafted anyways so they are happy to take $1,000-$10,000 because that is better than nothing. If you are a good prospect and a senior (which is rare), then you are still getting paid because they are taking you hoping that you some day contribute. If they want you to be a part of their organization then they aren't wanting to start off with a bad relationship where they drafted you in the 2nd round but made you sign for $10,000 just because they can. You rarely get Cole Freemans, Mark Appels, Kramer Robertsons, etc who return for their senior season and get taken in the top 5 rounds, but when they do they are usually still paid well. They can draft a guy like Chadwick because they do not think he is going to be a big part of their club going forward so if he is disgruntled about signing for $10,000 then so be it.

For some teams, rounds 7-10 are nothing more than places to save money with guys who are thrilled to be drafted, so the best prospects for them are taken in rounds 1-5 and then 11-20.


Note: This post was merged from a separate thread, not just repeating myself in same thread.

dotnet

Quote from: jry04 on June 21, 2017, 01:21:54 pm
we don't see quality seniors in the draft very often.

This is a good point.  James Ramsey was a cf for FSU a few years ago and was taken in the first round as a senior.  He was not one of the lowest 2 paid players in the first round. 

I don't think he got full slot, but he was good enough to be rewarded for his talent 

TebowHater

Jry is totally correct and provides a great explanation. These guys have agreed to take less ahead of time.

Because while it's true the seniors have almost no leverage, they do have the ability to walk. A team would then be forced to eat whatever that guy's slot value was. Sure, everyone wants to play pro ball so who in their right mind would walk but if a guy thought he was getting screwed he could walk (money wise, there was literally nothing to lose). A team can't take that gamble, especially in the early rounds with 400k+ bonuses.


soso

$5000 signing bonus for the 10th round seems criminal. Hopefully there are some other "considerations"

dotnet

Quote from: soso on June 26, 2017, 10:22:30 am
$5000 signing bonus for the 10th round seems criminal. Hopefully there are some other "considerations"

He was free to get $0 and to go get a day job. 

texas tush hog

Quote from: soso on June 26, 2017, 10:22:30 am
$5000 signing bonus for the 10th round seems criminal. Hopefully there are some other "considerations"


Major League Baseball has absolutely zero compassion for these kids.Once they get them past their leverage into their senior year they stomp on them. That's why I can't fathom those on this board wanting a kid to come back after they are drafted. You either get your money while you can or give it up. Once you sign you are at their mercy as well. $1500.00 a month your first year increasing to $2400.00 a month. And that is only for 6 months a year. It is a hard life. There are no other "considerations", believe me.

ImHogginIt

Quote from: texas tush hog on June 26, 2017, 05:11:59 pm

Major League Baseball has absolutely zero compassion for these kids.Once they get them past their leverage into their senior year they stomp on them. That's why I can't fathom those on this board wanting a kid to come back after they are drafted. You either get your money while you can or give it up. Once you sign you are at their mercy as well. $1500.00 a month your first year increasing to $2400.00 a month. And that is only for 6 months a year. It is a hard life. There are no other "considerations", believe me.

I would imagine those who get screwed and become decent MLB players remember this at some point in the future when they negotiate their contract.

jry04

Quote from: texas tush hog on June 26, 2017, 05:11:59 pm

Major League Baseball has absolutely zero compassion for these kids.Once they get them past their leverage into their senior year they stomp on them. That's why I can't fathom those on this board wanting a kid to come back after they are drafted. You either get your money while you can or give it up. Once you sign you are at their mercy as well. $1500.00 a month your first year increasing to $2400.00 a month. And that is only for 6 months a year. It is a hard life. There are no other "considerations", believe me.
Not always true. The seniors who get this money are guys who do not have much of a shot to get drafted where they were drafted to begin with. Taco agreed to the money before he was drafted, he would have fell much lower in the draft if not for agreeing to this bonus. Same with Chadwick. Taco probably was offered a lot more money last year, and probably should have gone, but he also probably thought he would have a much better year. A guy like Kramer Robertson returned and will make a nice pay day off it because he has a lot of talent and is a guy the  organization will want to keep around. He will sign under slot, but not under $200k.

texas tush hog

June 28, 2017, 10:29:34 am #488 Last Edit: June 28, 2017, 10:40:23 am by texas tush hog
Quote from: jry04 on June 27, 2017, 06:03:56 pm
Not always true. The seniors who get this money are guys who do not have much of a shot to get drafted where they were drafted to begin with. Taco agreed to the money before he was drafted, he would have fell much lower in the draft if not for agreeing to this bonus. Same with Chadwick. Taco probably was offered a lot more money last year, and probably should have gone, but he also probably thought he would have a much better year. A guy like Kramer Robertson returned and will make a nice pay day off it because he has a lot of talent and is a guy the  organization will want to keep around. He will sign under slot, but not under $200k.


Totally different story. Fourth round pick and if they don't sign him they lose the slot value. Taco should have signed when he had leverage. But essentially your point is well taken, both players agreed to the chump change before they were taken. That way the MLB big wigs save that slot money to sign other picks.

k.c.hawg

Quote from: jry04 on June 27, 2017, 06:03:56 pm
Not always true. The seniors who get this money are guys who do not have much of a shot to get drafted where they were drafted to begin with. Taco agreed to the money before he was drafted, he would have fell much lower in the draft if not for agreeing to this bonus. Same with Chadwick. Taco probably was offered a lot more money last year, and probably should have gone, but he also probably thought he would have a much better year. A guy like Kramer Robertson returned and will make a nice pay day off it because he has a lot of talent and is a guy the  organization will want to keep around. He will sign under slot, but not under $200k.

Yeah he actually did. I'm sure you saw he signed for $150k or $274k below slot. The quote I had initially put up stated the average senior drafted in the first 10 rounds of 2013 got roughly 20% of slot. Robertson got 35% which is a steal for the team but doesn't beat him down mentally as bad as 20%. Truth is if he signed the year before (turned down $250k) he would be $100k to the better and a year along through the system. Maybe coming back was worth $100k to him, certainly wouldn't blame him if he said it was. The Jr below him got slot, a Jr 2 rds below him got 157% and of course the HS kids 6th round 167% and 8th rd 225%.
Just sitting on the deck with a cold beer and a hot tequila watching the razorbacks roam.

ricepig