My Kentucky Derby top 4...only 11 days out! (with post time odds guess)

[HogFanInBryant]

1. Destin (11-1)
2. Nyquist (7-2)
3. Exaggerator (9-2)
4. Trojan Nation (40-1)

****I'm pretty well set on my #1 selection, and set on #2 and #3 but not sure of the order....#4 could bounce or move forward so just a toss up there

[jdelo77]

Destin is a question mark to me ? Lightly raced and improving ..
Nyquist , no need to explain ...
Exaggerator , I just don't know ? Was it the off track ? Who knows ? I'm just not sold on him yet ..
4th slot is random ...it's an all button on the bottom of the superfecta for sure ...

My list

1.nyquist
2. Destin/Danzig candy/my man Sam
3. Brody's cause/ exaggerator /destin/??
4.all

[HogFanInBryant]

Destin is a question mark to me ? Lightly raced and improving ..
Nyquist , no need to explain ...
Exaggerator , I just don't know ? Was it the off track ? Who knows ? I'm just not sold on him yet ..
4th slot is random ...it's an all button on the bottom of the superfecta for sure ...

My list

1.nyquist
2. Destin/Danzig candy/my man Sam
3. Brody's cause/ exaggerator /destin/??
4.all

I guess what gets me on Exaggerator is he did what he did so easily.  At first I was thinking he freaked on the off going, but he just did it so easily I can't not include him.  He seems like he will like the distance based on his stride the last furlong or so.  Brody's Cause, I do kinda like him, but he got dusted so bad by Destin in Tampa...it makes me like Destin even that much more.  You are absolutely correct in saying all in the 4th slot.  I hate that I can't get off this damn Trojan Nation horse, but if he moves forward watch out and he should really be able to run all freaking day.  I am throwing out everything pertaining to the Ark Derby...just don't think any of them can light the board honestly, and could easily be wrong and deserve a pie in the face!  I'm possibly gonna regret not using Danzing Candy, but you can't use them all and kinda have to make a stand and exclude some you may like kinda.

[HogFanInBryant]

Destin is a question mark to me ? Lightly raced and improving ..
Nyquist , no need to explain ...
Exaggerator , I just don't know ? Was it the off track ? Who knows ? I'm just not sold on him yet ..
4th slot is random ...it's an all button on the bottom of the superfecta for sure ...

My list

1.nyquist
2. Destin/Danzig candy/my man Sam
3. Brody's cause/ exaggerator /destin/??
4.all

I'm curious, what do you think the post time odds will be on Danzing Candy?  What about Nyquist and Exaggerator?

[porkinsons disease]

Wide open. I am not going to discount Mor Spirit either. Not flashy, but gives an honest effort everytime.Stevens needs to start his run a little earlier

[cbhawg03]

Wide open. I am not going to discount Mor Spirit either. Not flashy, but gives an honest effort everytime.Stevens needs to start his run a little earlier

Went really fast early and really slow late in work today iirc

[cbhawg03]

I guess what gets me on Exaggerator is he did what he did so easily.  At first I was thinking he freaked on the off going, but he just did it so easily I can't not include him.  He seems like he will like the distance based on his stride the last furlong or so.  Brody's Cause, I do kinda like him, but he got dusted so bad by Destin in Tampa...it makes me like Destin even that much more.  You are absolutely correct in saying all in the 4th slot.  I hate that I can't get off this damn Trojan Nation horse, but if he moves forward watch out and he should really be able to run all freaking day.  I am throwing out everything pertaining to the Ark Derby...just don't think any of them can light the board honestly, and could easily be wrong and deserve a pie in the face!  I'm possibly gonna regret not using Danzing Candy, but you can't use them all and kinda have to make a stand and exclude some you may like kinda.

You do realize that Exxagerator came home really slow right? Like just as slow as Creator and Brody's Cause.  Off track ok, but not sure about the confidence in him otherwise. Creator is getting good at the right time, talked to someone before AR Derby and said watch out for him, just my problem was that I keyed him with Cupid and/or Pioneer.  If you like Exaggerator then why not Creatorcwhen you will get double the odds.

Little hunch play, play Asmussenbto win. A number of jocks, including Pat Day, one derby the year inducted in HOF, trainers the same.

[mckinneyhog5]

Gun Runner
Mo Spirit
Suddenbreakiingnews
Nyquist

[HogFanInBryant]

Gun Runner
Mo Spirit
Suddenbreakiingnews
Nyquist

Gun Runner is showing up on some of the wise guy lists...what is it about him you like so much? 

[HogFanInBryant]

You do realize that Exxagerator came home really slow right? Like just as slow as Creator and Brody's Cause.  Off track ok, but not sure about the confidence in him otherwise. Creator is getting good at the right time, talked to someone before AR Derby and said watch out for him, just my problem was that I keyed him with Cupid and/or Pioneer.  If you like Exaggerator then why not Creatorcwhen you will get double the odds.

Little hunch play, play Asmussenbto win. A number of jocks, including Pat Day, one derby the year inducted in HOF, trainers the same.

I understand he came home slow...but he did it like a workout.  The final quarter of that race he was in what looked to be a jog to me.  Not saying he is some superstar, but just saying his body language and stride were amazingly effortless to me at the final 1/8 of the SAD...just think he might be peaking now and might love the longer distance?  idk?

[kingoftherapids]

https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/reading-pedigrees-how-kentucky-derby-contenders-shape?utm_source=TRC+Newsletter&utm_campaign=7d811d4349-TRC+Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d7e29e80ff-7d811d4349-156246729

[porkinsons disease]

Gun Runner is showing up on some of the wise guy lists...what is it about him you like so much? 

I like him too. He seems to be improving with every race and broke his maiden at CD.Should sit right off the pace. On the down side, he is still filling out physically and seems to get distracted easily

[jdelo77]

The fact that creator took five tries to break his maiden tells me all I need to know ..

[cbhawg03]

The fact that creator took five tries to break his maiden tells me all I need to know ..

Not a fan of the lightbulb angle huh?

[cbhawg03]

I understand he came home slow...but he did it like a workout.  The final quarter of that race he was in what looked to be a jog to me.  Not saying he is some superstar, but just saying his body language and stride were amazingly effortless to me at the final 1/8 of the SAD...just think he might be peaking now and might love the longer distance?  idk?

I get it was effortless, but he was the only one coming home.  It was so effortlessly done that the time showed it too.

I think its Nyquist or the field, so not necessarily talking you off of him, but just not sure how anybody could be sold on a single horse outside of Nyquist and I will admit that I'm not even sold on Nyquist.

[jdelo77]

Not a fan of the lightbulb angle huh?

I said it before , I'll say it again ! The Arkansas derby told us noting ...and I think if an assmusen horse wins it will be gun runner ...although not a fan of him either

[cbhawg03]

I said it before , I'll say it again ! The Arkansas derby told us noting ...and I think if an assmusen horse wins it will be gun runner ...although not a fan of him either

Let me get this straight, you don't like Creator but want to bet a case a beer that Whitmore, who was beat by Creator, will hit the board? Sorry but I don't get it.

[jdelo77]

Hit the board in any triple crown race , I believe that's what you said correct ? The Preakness is where I think he can hit board ! Assuming he makes it anyway ....and no I don't like creator ..

[cbhawg03]

Yes that's what I said. Thought I heard that Victor would ride him for entire triple crown, I would assume that means if he runs in them.

[mckinneyhog5]

Gun Runner
Mo Spirit
Suddenbreakiingnews
Nyquist

have changed my mind..
1. Exaggerator
2. Mo Spirit
3. Creator/SBN take your pick, they seem identical to me
4. Brody's Cause/Nyquist

[jdelo77]

Exaggerator scares me , I haven't liked him at all until the last few days ! His Santa Anita derby win was fun to watch ...

[cbhawg03]

Nyquist / Exaggerator, Creator / all

Nyquist / all / Exaggerator, Creator

Exaggerator, Mo Tom / Nyquist, Creator / all

Exaggerator, Mo Tom / all / Nyquist, Creator

all / Nyquist, Exaggerator, Creator / Nyquist, Exaggerator, Creator

You can throw a 3 or 4 horse Tri Box together and hit it, job well done. Just not sure how you trust any of these. Nyquist seems to be cut above everybody else, but was he tiring or playing around in Fla Derby win? If tiring, going to be able to hold off everybody else that extra 1/8th? How much pace will there actually be in the race? Outside of Danzing Candy, who else is going to go to the front? Trainer stated he would like to sit just off the speed if drawn outside, but will the horse even allow that?  Does he run off again and race fall apart like every prep?  Would have to think they would be going pretty slow up front if Danzing Candy is sitting off the pace.

Not sure what order of races will be, but Tepin could give everyone a free square playing pick 4 that hopefully includes the Derby.  Think Catch a Glimpse could on Friday as well and that sequence does include the Oaks. 

[jdelo77]

If the pace breaks down on the front end , there's no telling who will come flying at the end ! But If nyquist is just off the pace and Danzig candy actually sets the pace , I like nyquist chances ! The question is who else will go with Danzig candy ?

[jdelo77]

Is gun runner legit ? This is a question I've had with a buddy the last few days ..

[kingoftherapids]

right now i am
1 by 3 by 10
1 by 10 by 3
3 by 1 by 10
10 by 1 by 3
3 by 10 by 1
10 by 3 by 1

total cost 90 for 50 cent

[porkinsons disease]

Is gun runner legit ? This is a question I've had with a buddy the last few days ..

I like him. Still filling out and can get distracted, but will get some strong play from me.

[cbhawg03]

right now i am
1 by 3 by 10
1 by 10 by 3
3 by 1 by 10
10 by 1 by 3
3 by 10 by 1
10 by 3 by 1

total cost 90 for 50 cent

Who is the 1 and the 3?

[cbhawg03]

If the pace breaks down on the front end , there's no telling who will come flying at the end ! But If nyquist is just off the pace and Danzig candy actually sets the pace , I like nyquist chances ! The question is who else will go with Danzig candy ?

That's the key. Does Danzing Candy go slower and can he go the distance? Outwork should be forwardly placed but don't see him being that quick or fast. Destin eager off the layoff? Again, even quick enough? Does somebody scratch and Laoban gets in? Then he goes and maybe hooks up with Danzing Candy. Literally 95% of the field wants to be mid-pack or even farther behind.

[kingoftherapids]

my 1 is SBN

My 3 will depend on post position but it will be between majesto, shagaf, gun runner, brody's cause, mohaymen, creator, destin.  don't worry though nyquist will be a part of the big group.

[cbhawg03]

my 1 is SBN

My 3 will depend on post position but it will be between majesto, shagaf, gun runner, brody's cause, mohaymen, creator, destin.  don't worry though nyquist will be a part of the big group.

Sure didn't think the one would be SBN.

Why SBN? btw, there is this: 43 of last 45 winners had prior Derby mounts, excludes Gun Runner, Mohaymen, Suddenbreakingnews and Tom's Ready

[kingoftherapids]

his turn of foot is good enough to get him on the board IMO. He explodes in the stretch of every race. reminds me a lot of summer bird.
After the post draw i think danzing candy is going to go so hard to clear the field that it is going to be a hot pace which will help our arkansas derby closers.

I'll go thru each one with my notes with mostly concerns of breeding:

Gun runner- will love distance

Nyquist- struggle with distance

Exaggerator- only if wet

Outwork- distance limitations

Brody's cause- can get distance

Creator- suited for distance

Lani- will relish distance but never switched leads in last work and was not sharp whatsoever

Mor spirit- on sires side will get distance.  On mother's side absolutely not.  Leaning to latter since he seems to take after his mother so far.

Mohaymen- can get distance but has to rebound. Likes track

Danzing candy- no chance to win

Destin- can get the route by breeding but never been even 9F

Suddenbreakingnews- will relish

Oscar nominated- hell no. Move on

Shagaf- will get distance and I like the works and consistency

Whitmore- The further the less he will like it.  not based on breeding but based on his races so far. he doesnt seem to have IT.  He might just be passing tired horses.

Toms ready- not with free money would I bet him

My man Sam- probably won't get distance.

Majesto- will like distance

Trojan nation- the question mark horse.  Although I didn't like anyrjing in the wood. Also he hasn't even broken his maiden

Mo tom- closing miler

[cbhawg03]

his turn of foot is good enough to get him on the board IMO. He explodes in the stretch of every race. reminds me a lot of summer bird.
After the post draw i think danzing candy is going to go so hard to clear the field that it is going to be a hot pace which will help our arkansas derby closers.

I'll go thru each one with my notes with mostly concerns of breeding:

Gun runner- will love distance

Nyquist- struggle with distance

Exaggerator- only if wet

Outwork- distance limitations

Brody's cause- can get distance

Creator- suited for distance

Lani- will relish distance but never switched leads in last work and was not sharp whatsoever

Mor spirit- on sires side will get distance.  On mother's side absolutely not.  Leaning to latter since he seems to take after his mother so far.

Mohaymen- can get distance but has to rebound. Likes track

Danzing candy- no chance to win

Destin- can get the route by breeding but never been even 9F

Suddenbreakingnews- will relish

Oscar nominated- hell no. Move on

Shagaf- will get distance and I like the works and consistency

Whitmore- The further the less he will like it.  not based on breeding but based on his races so far. he doesnt seem to have IT.  He might just be passing tired horses.

Toms ready- not with free money would I bet him

My man Sam- probably won't get distance.

Majesto- will like distance

Trojan nation- the question mark horse.  Although I didn't like anyrjing in the wood. Also he hasn't even broken his maiden

Mo tom- closing miler

Agree with lot of that.

Gun Runner: good enough? Getting better but has to improve and who has he beat?

Wouldn't bet Whitmore with worst enemy's money. Better than Far Right but that's not saying much.

Creator: had talk with someone before derby on how much he had improved since maiden win, all he had to do was take another step forward and he did. Could easily again but has to have something to run at though.

SBN: not sure. Stats say no to first time Derby jocks as well. Out kicked by Creator and Sanatana not afraid to bully way through hole. Might be difference in the two. SBN with Sanatana and Luis Q on Creator and results might flip flop. Can't always go so wide and maintain late kick or catch horses. But don't pull a Lanerie either.

Does Nyquist struggle with distance or was he playing around at GP? Is he way better than these so limitations don't matter?

Exaggerator: according to the history of winners, strike system of Jon White and another system I have seen is the winner. I at hi k only wet too but everything says he is the play stats wise.

Outwork: don't like any Wood runner except Shagaf

Brody's Cause: move the Deeby the Keeneland and yes

[cbhawg03]

Lani is absolutely nuts. I'm not sure he doesn't have complete meltdown and ends up being scratched while their in the paddock or on the track before they race. Even if he makes it to, in and out of the gate, will he even run? He wouldn't workout the other day. Did notice that Jon White had him in his top 4 though, is he crazy or something to Lani?

Mor Spirit: liked him but last couple have left wanting more. Workout was really fast then really slow, so slow late that late fractions didn't seem true. Buffett thought of scratching all day during SA Derby and said if not going to win the wrap him up and have fresh horse for Derby. Any truth to any of that? Was he wrapped up? Didn't like mud? Why was workout so bad?

Mohaymen: who has he beaten? What happened last race? Seen reports that he looks really keyed up last couple days so does he go to the front or just off and then fade? Concerns but could rebound at a nice price since seems to have been forgotten.

Danzing Candy: who goes with him? If alone then can he slow it down some and get the distance? Pace makes the race and he could be line pace.

Destin: likewise, hasn't been 9F and is going to win going 10F? I'll pass for sure. TAP record also to consider as reason to pass along with layoff.

Agree on Oscar Nominated.

Shagaf: only horse from Wood that would consider.

Toms Ready: Dallas Stewart. So have to use underneath right? Don't see how he wins but could hit the board? Think he will be grossly over eat in place and show pools though due to trainer record.

My man Sam: ran in Bluegrass right? Don't really like that race. Chad Brown won anything on dirt other than with Wavell Avenue?

Majesto has that one good race iirc. Somebody had to run in the money behind Nyquist though. Did make up ground at GP which isn't easy to do but Nyquist wasn't running when he was making up ground.

Trojan Nation: ran in the Wood, maiden. Think that's enough to say pass.

Mo Tom: according to history, one other system and Jon White's system (you do have to take into account 2 strike horses to get to him), he is the only other horse that could win outside Exaggerator. Does he find trouble m, was it Lanerie or both?

Really when was last derby that had this many question marks?

[jdelo77]

Is exaggerators win in the SA derby a fluke ? Was it the muddy track ? His wins came in mud/slop but , damn he ran his eyeballs out in that race !!! It's very confusing to me ...

[cbhawg03]

Is exaggerators win in the SA derby a fluke ? Was it the muddy track ? His wins came in mud/slop but , damn he ran his eyeballs out in that race !!! It's very confusing to me ...

If you look at the stats of prior winners, everything says Exaggerator is the play.  But I do agree with you about the SA Derby except for the fact that he ran his eyeballs out.  He still came home very slow, it looked really impressive but that's because he was the only one running.  Where do you turn to say that this performance on a fast track going two turns shows that he will win though? I'm not sure where you find that race.  He did run second to Nyquist though, albeit a one turn race.  He won SA Derby then Uncle Lino came back and won stakes race at Los Al last weekend. 

[jdelo77]

Good point , the time was slow ! But it still looked visually impressive ...

[jdelo77]

I'm liking dazing candy more and more , and I had a dream creator won the derby ? What the hell But I also had a dream nyquist passed everyone in the stretch ...weird

[kingoftherapids]

there is a prop bet. SBN -120 beating Danzing Candy. I think i might put my house on that bet

[jdelo77]

That's not a bad bet actually , you figure DC will go right to the front and logically SBN could pick up the pieces but , it's the derby and who knows what could happen in the stretch ...I'm off exaggerator I know that ! I think it was the off track that made his last look so good

[HogFanInBryant]

I'm going to say something, and not back it with my wallet....which means I hope I am talking nonsense here!

Mohaymen scares the absolute **** out of me and absolutely will not surprise me if he freaks and runs off with it!  The connections are being kinda quiet, but word on the backside (ex-customer in Lexington knows everyone who knows everyone in the KY circuits) is this horse is a possible freak and draw a line in the last race...act like it never even happened!

[porkinsons disease]

I'm going to say something, and not back it with my wallet....which means I hope I am talking nonsense here!

Mohaymen scares the absolute **** out of me and absolutely will not surprise me if he freaks and runs off with it!  The connections are being kinda quiet, but word on the backside (ex-customer in Lexington knows everyone who knows everyone in the KY circuits) is this horse is a possible freak and draw a line in the last race...act like it never even happened!

I accidently left him out of some of my exotics. Hope it doesn't come back to bite me. Looked bad as a beaten favorite in The FL Derby. McLaughlin could not explain it. Race sets up well for him and he seems to love the Churchill surface.

[jdelo77]

I looked at the fields he faced , all small , he looked good but he will have to run better to beat nyquist today !

[kingoftherapids]

i like mohaymen a lot as well.

[jdelo77]

My buddy loves him !! I'm not a big fan , maybe play under in the exacta

[porkinsons disease]

I have him in a few exactas; but.for whatever reason left him out of most other exotics . Played Gun Runner and Mor Spirit pretty heavy (for me at least)

[HogFanInBryant]

I hope Mohaymen runs 5th or worse lol.

[cbhawg03]

How much rain is going to fall and does it even result in off track. If so then have to downgrade Mohayman and Shagaf and up grade Exaggerator.

[GoHogs1091]

Win    Exaggerator    It would be cool to see a son of Curlin win the Kentucky Derby.  It would be poetic justice considering Curlin got a terrible trip in the KD and still managed to finish in 3rd.  It would also be huge for a son of Curlin to win the KD considering a son of Curlin defeated the Triple Crown Winner last year.  Those 2 aspects should supplant all of the American Pharoah, Tapit, and Uncle Mo hub bub that is going on in the breeding community.

Place   Shagaf

Show   Suddenbreakingnews

Those above 2 have A.P. Indy pretty close up in their pedigree.

[husker71]

I just boxed the 2,5,15 and 17 in exactas and tris     Just guesses on my part

[yraciv]

Win   on 3
Exacta Box on the 9/11/14