SH's Derby Dozen...plus 8 more

[HogFanInBryant]

Anything surprising here?


http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2016/04/19/derby-dozen-april-19-2016-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx

[userpick]

I honestly quit reading when I saw Whitmore was #5.

[HogFanInBryant]

I honestly quit reading when I saw Whitmore was #5.

Whitmore is the wise guy horse for this year's Derby.  Kind of like several years ago when it was Ten Most Wanted...anyone remember that?

[userpick]

I love the "wait til he gets a perfect trip" crowd. When 20 horses break out of the gate, there is no such thing. The horse is average at that level and will be lucky to finish in the top 8. I wouldn't bet him to hit the board with your money.

[GoHogs1091]

First of all, I would toss any horse who has Dixie Union as a Broodmare Sire, so that would mean tossing Mor Spirit and Mohaymen.  Dixie Union is not a good source of stamina.

Indian Charlie is also not a good source of stamina, and the Uncle Mo sired horses have Indian Charlie right up towards the front on the top side of their pedigree, so I would be leery about Nyquist, Outwork, and Mo Tom.  Outwork does get helped with having Empire Maker as the Broodmare Sire, so Outwork is not as problematic stamina wise as the other 2 Uncle Mo sired horses.

I would be leery about the horses who came directly out of Gulfstream Park.  Gulfstream is such a speed biased track that a lot of the horses who directly come out of there are not as good speed wise when they run on the track at Churchill Downs.

As of now, from a pedigree only perspective (point of view), the following to me could be the top 3 finishers in the Kentucky Derby.

Win   Exaggerator
Place   Brody's Cause
Show   Suddenbreaking News

The above is as of now just pedigree wise, and doesn't take into account how they look on the track at Churchill the days leading up to the race, and doesn't take into account their gate positions.

Two horses to watch out for are Destin and Shagaf.  Destin could be good enough pedigree wise to win, but the such a long layoff between last race and the Kentucky Derby could either be bad or good (well rested and runs a huge race).  Shagaf has Bernardini as the Sire and Unbridled's Song as the Broodmare Sire.  That is a very good combination in a pedigree.

[cbhawg03]

Mor Spirit hasn't really done anything that says he will get the distance but hasn't done anything to say he won't either.

Nyquist, there is the pedigree but he just seems to be head and shoulders better than everybody else so the pedigree might hurt him but his class may be what wins it.

Brody's Cause, I would bet him at Keeneland, everywhere else, not so much.

Not sure how you trust Excagerator to do anything other than on an off track.

[HogFanInBryant]

First of all, I would toss any horse who has Dixie Union as a Broodmare Sire, so that would mean tossing Mor Spirit and Mohaymen.  Dixie Union is not a good source of stamina.

Indian Charlie is also not a good source of stamina, and the Uncle Mo sired horses have Indian Charlie right up towards the front on the top side of their pedigree, so I would be leery about Nyquist, Outwork, and Mo Tom.  Outwork does get helped with having Empire Maker as the Broodmare Sire, so Outwork is not as problematic stamina wise as the other 2 Uncle Mo sired horses.

I would be leery about the horses who came directly out of Gulfstream Park.  Gulfstream is such a speed biased track that a lot of the horses who directly come out of there are not as good speed wise when they run on the track at Churchill Downs.

As of now, from a pedigree only perspective (point of view), the following to me could be the top 3 finishers in the Kentucky Derby.

Win   Exaggerator
Place   Brody's Cause
Show   Suddenbreaking News

The above is as of now just pedigree wise, and doesn't take into account how they look on the track at Churchill the days leading up to the race, and doesn't take into account their gate positions.

Two horses to watch out for are Destin and Shagaf.  Destin could be good enough pedigree wise to win, but the such a long layoff between last race and the Kentucky Derby could either be bad or good (well rested and runs a huge race).  Shagaf has Bernardini as the Sire and Unbridled's Song as the Broodmare Sire.  That is a very good combination in a pedigree.

I like your approach here but I disagree with ignoring Nyquist based on pedigree.  If you go back and look...Thunder Gulch was never supposed to run further than about 7 furlongs based on pedigree...and he won at 1.25 and 1.5 miles...just an example.  Nyquist may not come in the top 4 but he seems to have talent that can overcome the pedigree...just my 2 cents.

[jdelo77]

Secretariat wasn't suppose to handle the Belmont either .. Just saying

[cbhawg03]

I think you have to ignore Nyquist's pedigree. Nobody else has the class and determination to win that Nyquist does. Will he win? I'm not necessarily sold, but just don't have an alternative or better option at the moment.

Besides the pedigree, how many horses are actually going to try to be on the lead or prompt the pace? Seems like everybody wants to settle back and make a run.

Mor Spirit will be off pace
Gun Runner not going to front
Anybody from the Wood?
Brody's Cause, Cherry Wine, Whitmore, Creator, Suddenbreakingnews all at the back.
My man Sam will be at back too iirc

Will Laoban get in?
Will Danzig Candy even run?
Myhayman sit off the pace?

So who will Nywuist actually have to contend with early on in the race?

[HogFanInBryant]

Here is a horse that ran off and left Exaggerator on a dry track...but everyone seems to forget about him since he didn't like the wet, gummy track at SA.  Let Danzing Candy get out on a lone lead with some fair fractions...watch how brave he gets!  Forget him at your own financial loss in that scenario!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Z5OPMxQa6A

[cbhawg03]

Here is a horse that ran off and left Exaggerator on a dry track...but everyone seems to forget about him since he didn't like the wet, gummy track at SA.  Let Danzing Candy get out on a lone lead with some fair fractions...watch how brave he gets!  Forget him at your own financial loss in that scenario!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Z5OPMxQa6A

Last I seen they aren't even sure will go in Kentucky, may point to Preakness.

[mckinneyhog5]

Here is a horse that ran off and left Exaggerator on a dry track...but everyone seems to forget about him since he didn't like the wet, gummy track at SA.  Let Danzing Candy get out on a lone lead with some fair fractions...watch how brave he gets!  Forget him at your own financial loss in that scenario!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Z5OPMxQa6A

Exaggerator had trouble switching leads in the stretch and at a minimum cost him 2nd. Mike Smth is my favorite jockey and he had a nice ride on Danzig Candy.

[HawgWild]

Secretariat wasn't suppose to handle the Belmont either .. Just saying

What was it about Secretariat that suggested he couldn't get the distance in the Belmont? Just curious.

[kingoftherapids]

What was it about Secretariat that suggested he couldn't get the distance in the Belmont? Just curious.

lol find another horse... can't be comparing secretariat to anybody. he is in another stratosphere!

[userpick]

American Pharoah wasn't supposed to run as far as he did either. Sometimes you gotta throw that stuff out.

[HogFanInBryant]

Last I seen they aren't even sure will go in Kentucky, may point to Preakness.

If they even sniff the possibility that he could get a lone lead without having it be suicidal...they are nuts if they don't run and he is fit and sound...my 2 cents.

[cbhawg03]

If they even sniff the possibility that he could get a lone lead without having it be suicidal...they are nuts if they don't run and he is fit and sound...my 2 cents.

Nyquist has some go in him so wouldn't get to far away from Nyquist.

[PineyWoodsRooter]

Talking about Danzing Candy, Trainer Clifford Sise plans to take an unusual route to the Derby, by training him at San Luis Rey Downs first in California (because their track more closely resembles Churchill Downs than Santa Anita).

[cbhawg03]

Talking about Danzing Candy, Trainer Clifford Sise plans to take an unusual route to the Derby, by training him at San Luis Rey Downs first in California (because their track more closely resembles Churchill Downs than Santa Anita).

Just make selective appearances around here huh 

[HogFanInBryant]

I don't have a problem at all with Danzing Candy flying out of the gate for a 22.5 opening half if he can open up a bit and then slow it down.  Nyquist isn't fast enough out of the gate to go with him in my opinion.  Tell me a speed ball that will 100% for sure go with Danzing Candy?

[jdelo77]

I figure at this point , trainers know a hell of a lot more than me ! But , there are certain bloodlines that produce great young horses ! Hell last year supersavers offspring Made me some cash ...