OP Shippers

[userpick]

It's that time of the year again. One of my favorite racing angles. Find the Oaklawn shipper who was not quite good enough to win against Oaklawn fields but will win against weaker. Right Squall, who was coming off two disappointing efforts at Oaklawn, just won at 11-1 at Laurel Park. If anyone has some stabled horses that are shipping to less competitive tracks, post them here!

[userpick]

Lone star race 7 #3 Dance on Warrior. Currently 5/2 odds.

[husker71]

last year Indiana Downs, MTR and of course Will Rogers all produced winners BUT the big payers moved to bigger tracks and several paid big $$    This is a great angle especially for those who ran a few times and maybe just did not like the track at OP 

[heavylifting]

Paid Admission won the 9th at Churchill today at 10-1.

Same setup as last year, when he ran at Oaklawn before shipping to CD for the win. And he's done his best racing at CD.

AND THEY LET HIM GET OFF AT 10-1!!!

Life can be good sometimes.

[kingoftherapids]

OP shippers are winning like crazy. i think the 2-5 races at churchill today were oaklawn horses last start. one was a trifecta. van berg hits the board twice. just crazy

[The Hogfather]

I need help tracking these horses so I can bet them.

[jdelo77]

I need help tracking these horses so I can bet them.

Churchill has a lot of them so does prarie meadows , but your value will come from smaller tracks like mountaineer , Indiana grand , places like that

[heavylifting]

I need help tracking these horses so I can bet them.

Horses running on Churchill Downs' Friday card that made their last start at Oaklawn Park.

1st race – MSW, 7f. Modify (# 7), Geroux/Asmussen, is the 6-5 favorite off two runner-up finishes at Oaklawn. Figures to be tough, but might be overbet and by no means a sure thing. Learning Curve (# , Santana/Moquett, showed signs of life in her last two at Oaklawn, both 2-turn routes. Cuts back here to a long sprint. Has a shot and the 10-1 price makes her too good to overlook. Garden Goddess (# 9), Bridgmohan/Byrne, was well back early in her sprint debut at Oaklawn, closed some ground late in what was probably a race designed to get her feet wet. Gets an extra furlong here, as well as the outside post, and could be along in time. ML is 12-1. Note: the three Oaklawn shippers occupy the three outside posts. Modify is the DRF consensus choice.

2nd race – first-level Alw/OC sprint. Vickie Wins (# 1), Santana/Asmussen, comes in here off her maiden-breaker at Oaklawn in which she won by eight lengths in a performance that elicited the comment "sharp" from the chartcaller. That was March 6, so she's had two months' rest. 4-1 ML. American Holiday (# 7), Rocco/Brad Cox, went 2-for-2 at Oaklawn this winter as the 7-5 fave both times. Entered to be claimed here for $75,000. ML? 10-1. Go figure. Neither made the DRF Consensus box.

3rd race – second level Alw/OC mile around one turn. Rose to Glory (# 2), Hill/Donnie VH, was a minor player at Oaklawn this winter; one third-place finish in three tries was her high-water mark. She appears to be somewhat outclassed here, but runs first time for a tag for whatever that's worth. 15-1 ML. Misleading Lady (# 9), Irad Ortiz/Brad Cox, stretches out off three 6-furlong sprints at Oaklawn. Has won at Churchill. 12-1 ML suggests she might be an overlay. Neither got as much as a mention from the DRF pickers.

4th race – first-level Alw/OC route. Divine Elegance (# 2), Luis Q/Donnie VH, stretches out here after closing ground in sprints at Oaklawn. Usually gets a piece. 8-1 ML. Smart Emma (# 6), Hill/Peitz, broke her maiden at Oaklawn in her second start, her first around two turns. Closed in that one, then tried to steal it on the lead in her first try against winners, but got caught. 10-1 ML. Avisionofchocolate (# , Court/Fires, moves back into open company after running second against Arkansas-breds last time. That, plus stretchout from sprint to route, plus dull Churchill tries last fall suggest she'll be longer than her 15-1 ML. Bonita Cat (# 9), Geroux/Campbell, just did get up in time last out to surprise an Oaklawn field of similar at 18-1. This time, connections are willing to risk losing her for $75,000 to try the same kind. A stone closer, the extra sixteenth can only help her. So, why is the ML 20-1? Only question is just how hard will you kick yourself if you let this one get by you at double-digit odds? Not saying it's going to happen, but her recent races have all been pretty decent, and when she finished 12 lengths back on Feb. 5, that was Terra Promessa in front of her. Seems to have plenty of upside. Smart Emma got third in the DRF Consensus box.

5th race – MSW around one turn on the grass. Jacob Rocks (# 6), Hill/Donnie VH, tries grass for the first time here. Son of Street Boss been knocking on the door; only a matter of time. 10-1 ML. Not even a nibble from the DRF pickers.

6th race – Grade 1 La Troienne, at 1-1/16 miles for fillies and mares. Theogony (# 7), Santana/Casse, was unplaced in two graded stakes at Oaklawn. Was runner-up in Grade 2 at Churchill last November. Wins appear to have all come over the synthetic track at Woodbine. 15-1 ML.

8th race – Grade 3 Twin Spires Turf Sprint at 5 furlongs. You probably need no intro to this trio. Alsvid (# 6), Landeros/Chris Hartman, has only two grass races in 40 career tries, but nearly got up here at Churchill last fall under Landeros in one of those. 12-1 ML. Weast Hill (# , Rocco/Brad Cox, 5-for-5 at Oaklawn, tries grass for the first time here. Son of Rockport Harbor worked over the Churchill turf course on April 24 in 48.4. That might not seem exceptional, but note how much faster it is than all the dirt works he shows. If you like him, you'll love his 20-1 ML. Speightsong (# 9), Lanerie/Forster, spit the bit last out in the Grade 3 Count Fleet at Oaklawn. Did win there in February. Winless in two turf tries. Also 20-1 and deservedly so. Note that this is a large 13-horse field.

9th race – Grade 2 Alysheba for older horses at 1-1/16 miles on the main track. Natchez (# 2), Hill/Lukas, came to hand for D. Wayne in Hot Springs this past winter, winning two of three allowance tries. Shows two third-place finishes over the Churchill strip for previous connections. Tries stakes company for the first time. 30-1 ML in wide-open betting race; fave is 7-2 Eagle.

11th race – Kentucky Oaks. Terra Promessa (# 1), Santana/Asmussen, drew the rail for her first Grade 1 assignment. 10-1 ML. Loading at the other end of the gate will be Taxable (# 14), Mike Smith/Asmussen, hoping to avenge her Fantasy defeat and take down the rest of the field, as well. Broke her maiden at Churchill at first asking last June by seven lengths. 20-1 ML. Don't shy away; there've been some high prices in this race in recent years.

12th race – MSW at a mile on the grass. Will Did It (# 6), Court/Lukas, is still a maiden after 14 tries on the dirt. Son of Medaglia d'Oro comes into this off three in-the-money finishes in Hot Springs. 10-1 ML.

13th race – starter allowance at a mile on the main track. Meanbone (# 7), Lanerie/Moquett, was third behind Weast Hill in a statebred stakes race last out. Owns most wins (3) of any member of field, many of whom have only broken their maiden. Still looking for first win in open company. 10-1 ML. Susan's Reward (# , Landeros/Greg Compton, will probably be more than his 20-1 ML off of stinker in Hot Springs last out, his first for connections after they claimed him off of Donnie VH. Upside, however, is that he broke his maiden at Churchill last year with a flourish under Landeros. That, alone, suggests he should not be ignored. Blinkers on. Meanbone is third in the DRF Consensus box.

[heavylifting]

Re the above post -- apparently, I triggered an emoticon when I indicated a horse with the 8 program number.

[The Hogfather]

Thank you!  I really appreciate it!

[heavylifting]

Horses running on Churchill Downs' Saturday card that made their last start at Oaklawn Park.

Note that 1st race post time is 10:30 ET, that is, 9:30 in Arkansas

By the way, nice try by Alsvid at 10-1 in the Twin Spires Turf Sprint on Friday, in which he ran second. The winner got loose on the lead and couldn't be reeled in.

1st race – Alw/OC at a mile on the main track. Rocket Time (# 3), Rosario/Stall, won one of two at Oaklawn this past meet. More encouraging is that he's 2-for-2 at this exact trip over the Churchill surface. He won't be a surprise, though, as attested by his 3-1 ML.

2nd race – first-level Alw/OC at 1-1/16 miles on the main track. Divine Interventio (# 3), Santana/Asmussen, came from far back to win his racing debut a month ago to the day. Wasn't Triple Crown nominated, so he might have surprised his connections some. 7-2 ML. Racer (# 7), Court/Fires, is an Arkansas-bred that won two of six at the Oaklawn meet. Finished second against open company last time. 12-1 ML. Unexplained (# , Lanerie/Richard, has been coming around of late, finishing third in the Northern Spur on Arkansas Derby day. Won his racing debut at Churchill last November. 4-1 ML.

3rd race – MSW at 6-1/2 furlongs on the main track. Burntwood (# 9), Luis Q/Donnie VH, cuts back to a sprint off five routes at Oaklawn. Got nosed for the win last time. Three back, he was third by 10 lengths to Creator; chartcaller noted that Burntwood was "blocked." ML is 8-1. Grand Candy (# 11), Santana/Asmussen, was second last out at Oaklawn in his first race off the shelf since his debut at Saratoga last summer. 5-1 ML.

4th race – MSW at a mile on the lawn. Place des Vosges (# 12), Hill/Chris Hartman, looking like a professional maiden, as she enters her 13th race without a win. Has hit the board in four of eight turf tries. 12-1 ML.

5th race – second-level Alw/OC on the main track features Commanding Curve (# 9), which was second to California Chrome in the Derby two years ago and has gone 1-for-8 since. That win, however, came at Churchill, where his career box is 5-2-2-1. The opposition includes For Greater Glory (# 1), Rocco/Hobby, a graded-stakes placed animal that's available to be claimed today for $62,500. 8-1 ML. The other coming off an OP race is Bold Conquest (# 2), Santana/Asmussen, another underachiever. 9-2 ML. (Note: Commanding Curve did NOT run his last race at Oaklawn.)

8th race – Grade 1 Humana Distaff at 7 furlongs on the main track. Sarah Sis (# 1), Geroux/Mason, cuts back to a sprint off two less-than-stellar route efforts in Hot Springs. 30-1 ML. Super Saks (# 5), Hill/Lukas, brings a two-race winning streak from Oaklawn. Better yet, her last three races at Churchill (one on dirt, two on turf) all resulted in wins. 30-1 ML. Yikes!

9th race – Grade 2 American Turf at 1-1/16 miles on the grass. Cutacorner (# 2), Court/Van Berg, won a first-level allowance race at Oaklawn in January, and then finished well back in the Southwest, Rebel and Arkansas Derby. Has a fourth-place finish at Kentucky Downs in his lone try over grass. 50-1 ML.

10th race – Grade 3 Pat Day Mile on the main track. Discreetness (# 1), Court/Fires, won the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn in January, and then kept Cutacorner company in the next three races in the 3-year-old series. Won an allowance race at Churchill last fall. 12-1 ML. Gray Sky (# 4), Hill/Lukas, is another that came up short on Oaklawn's Derby trail. 15-1 ML, but likely to be much higher than that. Unbridled Outlawn (# 12), Espinoza/Romans, came apart in the Arkansas Derby. 5-1 ML – does Battaglia still make the line at Churchill? No way does this guy shape up as 5-1 against a field that includes two new shooters that haven't been breathed on against their respective local company. Baffert sends American Freedom (# 9), which attracts Castellano off a 98 Beyer in his winning debut at Santa Anita on April 9. 6-1 ML, but wouldn't be surprised if he goes off 6-5. Then there's Imperial Hint (# 5), 2-for-2 lifetime, both at Tampa, getting a 93 Beyer last time. Small-time connections will scare off a lot of people, but how about Runhappy last year? Who ever heard of his trainer before he went on his amazing run? Imperial Hint is 15-1 ML.

12th race – Kentucky Derby. Not going to go into detail here, you know the cast. Last race Oaklawn are the 1-2-3 from the Arkansas Derby, Creator (# 3), Suddenbreakingnews (# 2) and Whitmore (# 10), respectively. If there's a fast pace, they could all be in the picture at the wire.

13th race – first-level Alw/OC at 7 furlongs on the main track. Uno Mas Modelo (# 1), Landeros/Williamson, broke his maiden at first asking at Arlington, hasn't hit the board in four tries since then, including two at Oaklawn, and now runs for a $75,000 tag. 20-1 ML. Mkubwa (# 4), Castellano/Miller, won at first asking at Oaklawn on April 9. You might note how Grand Candy runs in the third race today to get a line on Mkubwa; they ran 1-2 in that April 9 race. 4-1 ML on Mkubwa. Cash Bonus (# 12), Brian Hernandez/Calhoun, drops in for a tag for the first time off a sixth-place finish in the Gazebo Stakes at Oaklawn. 6-1 ML.

14th race – MSW at 9 furlongs on the main track. Tales of War (# 2), Court/Lauer, ran third last time out; the second finisher, four lengths in front of him, was Burntwood, which, as noted, goes here today in the third race. 20-1 ML on Tales of War. All Rise (# 9), Castanon/Compton, showed little in first try for new connections, who got him from Bill Mott, who couldn't get him to hit the board in three tries. This 6-1 ML gets blinkers on. Finally, Red Fern (# 11), Torres/Forster, ran fifth on April 15 at Oaklawn, but he had to butt heads with Front Pocket Money, which won that race and then came back to win an allowance sprint on the grass at Churchill on Friday (11th race). Red Fern, 20-1 ML, stretches out here and if he can relax on or near the lead, might be able to go on with it. Also gets blinkers on. The tepid (7-2) favorite is Goats Town (# 12), which hit the board in four races at Oaklawn for Lukas before running sixth in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. 

[heavylifting]

Here are some more for Saturday that I stumbled upon while cruising through the past performances.

Arlington 1st race – Indy Awesome, # 1, 5-1
Arlington 7th race – G P's Girl, # 4, 20-1
Belterra 6th race – Apocalypse, # 8, 15-1
Laurel 3rd race – Lemon Juice, # 14, 6-1
Lone Star 2nd race – Fairwayngreen, # 7, 3-1
Lone Star 3rd race – Captain Payback, # 2, 5-2
Lone Star 10th race – Jet Trick, # 12, 10-1
Thistledown 2nd race – Squidalem, # 1, 7-2
Thistledown 6th race – Rattlesnake Holler, # 6, 8-1
Thistledown 7th race – Mr. Handsome, # 4, 5-2
Thistledown 8th race – Misterbulltoyou, # 1A, 5-2

More to come (maybe).

[jdelo77]

Wow , you put in some time for all this !!! Great work sir !!!

[cbhawg03]

Not necessarily a next out Oaklawn runner and entries not out, but might refinance the house on Idolo Porteno, horse from Argentina, that ran 3rd in the Razorback. Yes was beaten by $10k claimed, Domains Rap, but look at what barn that horse is from, enough said. He was also running off like a year plus layoff or something like that and I believe he will be going turf to dirt. Ran huge back home in Argentina and looks like the Pimlico Special will come up light. Stanford or a very disappointing Noble Bird look to be the key contenders, think he has a huge shot and the distance won't bother him at all.

[jdelo77]

Page McKenney will be tough , runs Hard every race and just grinder...I will play him on top of Idolo porteno and a few others ..I don't like Stanford at all ...

[cbhawg03]

Page McKenney will be tough , runs Hard every race and just grinder...I will play him on top of Idolo porteno and a few others ..I don't like Stanford at all ...

Scratch of Stanford and Page McKinney will hurt the price.  Noble Bird will really have to get hammered in order for price to stick.

[cbhawg03]

Didn't play after seem opened at 1/5 and didn't even watch. Caught replay, Noble Bird ran away from them, IP ran 2nd.

[heavylifting]

Friday night, May 27, at Canterbury, 7th race. Three of the seven runners ran their last race at Oaklawn Park. They ran 1-2-3 in a blanket finish. Winner paid $28.00 to win, runner-up went off at 10-1, third finisher was 2.90-1 second choice. Exacta returned $239.40 for $2, while the trifecta fetched $1,234.80 for $2.

Nevada Litfin trains both of the top two finishers, McLean Robertson the show horse.

[jdelo77]

Not quite as good as the Canterbury tri but , ready to confess finished third in the fantasy at OP , won at Churchill yesterday at 12/1 ...