Derby contenders

[jdelo77]

Who do you like ?

Mohaymen
Nyquist
Danzig candy

Those would by my three right now ..

[HogFanInBryant]

It's very early, but I am not done with Suddenbreakingnews yet.

[cbhawg03]

American Pioneer
Mor Spirit

[jdelo77]

Is American pioneer going straight to Ark Derby ? I heard a rumor that Baffert will train Cupid until the Kentucky Derby , any truth to this ?

[cbhawg03]

Is American pioneer going straight to Ark Derby ? I heard a rumor that Baffert will train Cupid until the Kentucky Derby , any truth to this ?

Yes and not that I have heard, everything I've heard is he will return for AR Derby, had 4F work yesterday at SA towards AR Derby.

Not to steal thoughts, but look at who Mohayman and Nyquist have beat, especially Nyquist, particularly the BC Juvy. That race hasn't produced much so while those two get all the attention, who good are they really? Nyquist also by Uncle Mo, that spells trouble especially with dam side being sprinting pedigree as well.

American Pioneer will have to improve, but I will take a flyer on him. Would have Dazzling Gem, but that performance at FG wasn't inspiring.

[cbhawg03]

Perhaps Unbridled Outlaw will soften up Cupid for American Pioneer in the AR Derby or Suddenbreakingnews. Unbridled Outlaw or Cupid get out in front alone though and everybody else is in for 9F chase. Them two go at each other or someone else will have to go with them otherwise one of them wins.

[jdelo77]

I agree , Mohaymen is who I'm leaning towards actually , I had long drawn out conversation with a guy about gun runner today , he was ranting and raving about his speed figures !!! I told him if you bet on strictly speed Figs , you would be broke ...

[ghostzapper]

Nyquist wins Fla Derby.  Mohaymen flattens in stretch.

[jdelo77]

Freaking Mohaymen flattened in the stretch ..

[ghostzapper]

Anybody impressed today?

[HogFanInBryant]

Anybody impressed today?

I hate to not give due to these 3 year olds when they win a grade 1, BUT....Exaggerator could have been a very tricky winner in the SAD...simply because the race totally falls apart on a track that is like running on Bubble Yum!  Those west coast tracks get gummy and sticky when they get that type of rain on them and horses either LOVE it or HATE it.  He could be the next huge thing but I'm gonna be looking elsewhere for sure...

[HogFanInBryant]

Anybody impressed today?

I also kind of like how hard the 2nd and 3rd place finishers in the Blue Grass were digging at the end.  They seem to be moving like they'll love the KD distance.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gB-jJfHo0fQ

[ghostzapper]

14 ran a good race.  His not winning cost me a 4 grand pick 4

[ghostzapper]

Beyer figs for yesterday's winners:

SA Derby:  103
Wood:  93
SA Oaks: 93
Ashland: 92
Blue Grass: 91

[ghostzapper]

Unified won the Bay Shore in only his second start with a 102.

[riccoar]

So what's thought on Shagaf.  Watched that race on Sat.  Bad ride?  And Songbird, and chance they point her to one of the TC races?

[jdelo77]

In throwing out any east coast horses , the west coast seems to have the deck stacked again !!!

[cbhawg03]

I also kind of like how hard the 2nd and 3rd place finishers in the Blue Grass were digging at the end.  They seem to be moving like they'll love the KD distance.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gB-jJfHo0fQ

Lanerie can't make a good decision.  First it was his rides on Mo Tom at FG then he chooses Cherry Wine over Brody's Cause. 

[cbhawg03]

In throwing out any east coast horses , the west coast seems to have the deck stacked again !!!

Exxagerator has to be tossed out to IMO, think his only good 2 turn races are on an off track.  Mor Spirit was probably the most disappointing for me. I think he might be able to grind out the bottom of the Tri or Super, but just don't seem to have the acceleration he had previously showed before last two, but could grind away and just keep going without slowing down and pick up a piece or two while some others fade due to the distance.  Maybe he is better suited for the Belmont where he could just grind away especially with the long stretch.

Guessing its Nyquist or the field at this point.  For as good as AP was last year, this group is as bad as he was great. 

[userpick]

I'm excited to see Cupid again. You have to think he will be even fitter after the Rebel.

[ghostzapper]

So what's thought on Shagaf.  Watched that race on Sat.  Bad ride?  And Songbird, and chance they point her to one of the TC races?

He had not run a race as good as three or four others in that race coming up to it, so maybe he wasn't as good as the pps suggested.  Or it could have been the track. 

I hope Songbird stays running against her own.  Never understood the temptation to run a filly with the boys. 

[ghostzapper]

Exxagerator has to be tossed out to IMO, think his only good 2 turn races are on an off track.  Mor Spirit was probably the most disappointing for me. I think he might be able to grind out the bottom of the Tri or Super, but just don't seem to have the acceleration he had previously showed before last two, but could grind away and just keep going without slowing down and pick up a piece or two while some others fade due to the distance.  Maybe he is better suited for the Belmont where he could just grind away especially with the long stretch.

Guessing its Nyquist or the field at this point.  For as good as AP was last year, this group is as bad as he was great.

The problem with off tracks and three year olds is that you can't always tell whether marked improvement is the natural improvement process or because of the mud.  I am not inclined to throw him out just yet. 

[cbhawg03]

The problem with off tracks and three year olds is that you can't always tell whether marked improvement is the natural improvement process or because of the mud.  I am not inclined to throw him out just yet.

Maybe not but just his 2 turn races are basically strictly on off track that are any good. Also, never bought into Danzing Candy, who set that up for a horse to come from behind.

At the end of the day, don't see anyone of them wanting a part of Songbird even though it doesn't sound like it's going to happen.

[kingoftherapids]

Nothing from the wood for sure

[cbhawg03]

So who does everybody have in the AR Derby?

Dale Romans has said that he thinks Unbridled Outlaw could steal the race being out in front.  Not really sure that he even gets the lead, as not sure he is even quicker than Cupid, Martin Garcia won't hustle Cupid up to the lead if breaks slow again, or if them two will just duel each other. 

Unbridled Outlaw hadn't ran since BC Juvenile when he ran on Rebel undercard, went 23.62, 48.32, 1:13.25, 1:38.07, 1:44.22, while Cupid broke slow and was rushed up and went 22.96, 46.82, 1:12.11, 1:37.65, 1:43.84.  Lanerie will have to be committed to having the lead otherwise Cupid will probably be in front of him or they will duel with each other and set things up for some of the local horses. 

Dazzling Gem should get a perfect trip, but he didn't have an acceleration in the LA Derby, he was just kind of one paced and maintained his spot while losing ground to the winner.  I think this field is a lot better than that LA Derby field so he will have to come up with some acceleration in order to win.

Whitmore, looks good in the mornings and when schooling, but just seems like a little better version of Far Right. Look for him to hit the board, but just don't see him winning.  At the end of the day, think his best races will be longer 1 turn races. 

Gettysburg, was beat by Collected at Sunland and Collected finished 4th or something like that in Smarty Jones or Southwest.  Just not sure how much better he could have got between Sunland and now.

[jdelo77]

how many are expected to enter ? Because It looks like cupids race to lose ! I don't like any of the horses you mentioned  other than Cupid and  whitmoore

[kingoftherapids]

12 in

[jdelo77]

Just saw the entries , American pioneer is interesting at 8/1 ...

[kingoftherapids]

Just saw the entries , American pioneer is interesting at 8/1 ...

I told a couple guys that this would be my pick beside cupid. i got completely shot down by trainers. i can't get off of him because of them because if he runs big then i will be so pissed i wouldnt be able to think

[userpick]

I've been on Pioneer for over a month and I won't let anyone take me off of him. Pioneer or Cupid wins the Derby.

[HogFanInBryant]

Suddenbreakingnews wins unless he has a bad trip. 

[cbhawg03]

I told a couple guys that this would be my pick beside cupid. i got completely shot down by trainers. i can't get off of him because of them because if he runs big then i will be so pissed i wouldnt be able to think

Trainers thinking that Cupid is just better or that AP not doing so good? That's a big difference.

[heavylifting]

Does anyone know who Billy Patin likes? [Bzz zitt Bzz zitt]

[kingoftherapids]

Trainers thinking that Cupid is just better or that AP not doing so good? That's a big difference.

i think they think Cupid is better. which he is resume wise up to this point. AP looked very good this morning on the track. worked a half then galloped a half and looked good every step

[cbhawg03]

i think they think Cupid is better. which he is resume wise up to this point. AP looked very good this morning on the track. worked a half then galloped a half and looked good every step

Yea, I'm going to take my chances. Not betting the house on him, but will take a nice shot. Just the entire race depends on Unbridled Outlaw, at least in my eyes. If Unbridled Outlaw goes with Cupid then Pioneer, Suddenbreakingnews have a chance, but if Cupid gets out there in front alone then I think we see a Bodemeister type performance.

The local trainers have to start treating these races like turf races or none of them are going to win the Rebel or Derby again. Baffert always has speed horses and sends them here and  ivory goes with his horses. The local trainers are going to have to enter a speedball cause while 23 and change and high 46, low 47 is moving at a nice clip, good horses will just keep going.

[kingoftherapids]

exactly. you can't name a baffert winner here that was less than 1st place with 6f to go.