All 2016 A-State Football Prediction Post

[Seminole Indian]

Based on various media reports from spring practice's I thought I would again give my early predictions for the overall 2016 record for the State's other D1 football teams .

A-State-I will go with 9 wins +/-1, up from last year's  8 wins +/-1.

Will be some growing pains on offense early on as the newbie's  develop some "chemistry", but their defense will  dominate from the get-go, and those newbie's on offense are the " next level " talents the coaches have been promising.

UCA- I will go with 6 wins +/-1, down from last year's  8 wins +/-1.

Hayden Hildebrand should provide a nice spark, and some stability on offense, the OL is not without talent in the starters, and there are a number of talented receivers for him to throw to, and the  defense showed a lot of progress across the board this spring, but losing 25+ players translates into a rebuilding year in Bear Country.

UAPB-Little info, thus no prediction, same as last year.

Will try and catch a recap of their spring game on April 23.

[Seminole Indian]

Still not enough info on UAPB to make an early prediction about their 2016 prospects, but UAPB Coaches seem to see a little light at the end of the tunnel. Per HC Monte Coleman in an article about their spring scrimmage in The Pine Bluff Commercial, "We've got to rely on some help coming in. We know that. But overall we did over 100 plays, and I've got six offensive lineman out there. ...

"We've got a long ways to go, but I saw a lot of promising things out of a lot of ball-players."

New offensive coordinator Ted White could not really display a "full-blown hurry-up offense" in the scrimmage, but said "This spring, I think we made some tremendous strides kind of getting guys used to the terminology," White said on Saturday. "It's all new to them. We want to be an explosive offense. We want to run the no-huddle. We want to be running at least 100 plays a game."

- See more at: http://pbcommercial.com/sports/uapb/uapb-debuts-white-s-offense-spring-game

In a related note about the other Division 1 schools UCAFANS.Com reports that UCA picked up former Texas Tech WR Jakari Dillard 6'4" 185lbs, 4.5 40 yard dash.

Might have an arms race here, AstateNation.com is reporting that Astate is set to pick up a 6-6.5" P5 transfer in June, who will be eligible this fall. Mostly likely candidate is thought to be former Razorback receiver Kendrick Edwards.

[Seminole Indian]

Looks like A-State continues to address depth issues that hurt them down the stretch the first two years under Anderson & Company.

They have quietly added two very promising JC OL to their roster ( Matthew Guevremon, 6-4, 317 and Alex Knovak, 6-4 305) who were both suppose to play another year of JC ball, and another QB. Will probably add another receiver. All are eligible to play in 2016.

A-State returns almost everyone of the players from what was a very good defense, so the focus has been on shoring up the offense, which returns most of it's 2-deep but lost a handful of key players. In addition to the younger players already on their roster (they were able to red-shirt some talented players last year) , they have added transfers from Pitt, Oklahoma, TCU and Texas to the mix on that side of the ball.

Look for former Texas Tech RB Armond Weh Weh (5-11, 230, 4.4 sec), to challenge for the starting job at RB this fall.

I still have them down for 9 wins +/-1 for 2016, but that +1 looks very doable in 2016.

[BPsTheMan]

12-0

mark it down




13-0 after the Fiesta Bowl

I'm not kidding

[GolfNut57]

Please pass whatever it is you're abusing.....

he's not abusing. Just being ignorant and trollish.

[Seminole Indian]

While not likely, certainly not impossible. I'll stick with 9 wins +/-1 with a lean toward the + 1.

Toward that end, per their HC all the vets are on campus for the 1st summer term, and because they are pretty much set at every position they only brought in a few newbies.

With only two scholarship QB's on the roster both QB's they signed,transfer Chad Voytik, and freshman Logan Bonner, are on campus.

JC players on campus are WR Christian Booker, and DE DaJon Emory. RB Armond Weh Weh was not on campus but was expected to arrive shortly.

True freshmen brought in are former Razorback BJ Edmond's son BJ Edmond Jr, and Ben Sukut both safeties, and TE  Javon Isaac.

[BPsTheMan]

he's not abusing. Just being ignorant and trollish.

wrong sir

I'm a Wolf convert

1. ASU has had success
2. People convert
3. ASU is going undefeated

[PonderinHog]

Please pass whatever it is you're abusing.....

[thebignasty]

Anything less than 11 wins would be a major major disappointment imo

[HogCzar1]

I would think that anything less than an undefeated season and a trip to the playoffs would be a letdown based on what I read and hear from ASU supporters.

Many feel they are better than Houston was last year when they beat FSU. They have 2 four star quarterbacks and are loaded everywhere with athletes.

They should be not even challenged in their league, and will be favored at Auburn.

Also, the reason they are building 2 Convention Centers is that they have been told by Big 12 folks they have to have a certain number of hotel rooms to be considered. They are very confident that a P5 offer is within 2-3 years.

Also, they are increasingly confident that they have the money now in place to keep Anderson even if ASU goes 13-0.

[BPsTheMan]

I would think that anything less than an undefeated season and a trip to the playoffs would be a letdown based on what I read and hear from ASU supporters.

Many feel they are better than Houston was last year when they beat FSU. They have 2 four star quarterbacks and are loaded everywhere with athletes.

They should be not even challenged in their league, and will be favored at Auburn.

Also, the reason they are building 2 Convention Centers is that they have been told by Big 12 folks they have to have a certain number of hotel rooms to be considered. They are very confident that a P5 offer is within 2-3 years.

Also, they are increasingly confident that they have the money now in place to keep Anderson even if ASU goes 13-0.

This is great great news!

[BPsTheMan]

Anything less than 11 wins would be a major major disappointment imo

you mean before the bowl or after?

[Seminole Indian]

Noticed their first three games are likely to be on national tv, (Utah St is on CBS on a Friday night, Toledo on ESPN, and the Auburn game has a chance) so they will certainly have the opportunity to make a statement early on.

I'm sure that their talent, especially their speed will be noted, but this is just the beginning and as much fun as the last five years have been for their fans it is about to get better,  a lot better in fact.

[HogCzar1]

Noticed their first three games are likely to be on national tv, (Utah St is on CBS on a Friday night, Toledo on ESPN, and the Auburn game has a chance) so they will certainly have the opportunity to make a statement early on.

I'm sure that their talent, especially their speed will be noted, but this is just the beginning and as much fun as the last five years have been for their fans it is about to get better,  a lot better in fact.

To have a game on CBS on a Friday Night early in the season will give ASU a great chance to make national waves. To get Verne and Gary Danielson would be a chance for ASU to show they belong in the playoff conversation.

You would have to think the Auburn game will likely be a featured ESPN telecast.

[FineAsSwine]

0-3 after 1st three games. Undefeated after that.

[Seminole Indian]

0-3 after 1st three games. Undefeated after that.

Very Possible, but they should be favored over Toledo in Jonesboro, and the Utah St game should be a dandy.

Really don't know much about Auburn, and UCA is in a rebuilding mode.

With Georgia Southern at home, they should have another good shot at running the table in the SBC.

Their opener with Toledo will be a Friday night game on ESPN.

[Jborohog09]

The Utah State game is actually on CBS Sports Network, not the main CBS channel.

[FineAsSwine]

Noticed their first three games are likely to be on national tv, (Utah St is on CBS on a Friday night, Toledo on ESPN, and the Auburn game has a chance) so they will certainly have the opportunity to make a statement early on.

I'm sure that their talent, especially their speed will be noted, but this is just the beginning and as much fun as the last five years have been for their fans it is about to get better,  a lot better in fact.

That buyout better be huge. ASU has had their last 3 coaches poached by bigger programs, 2 of which were SEC schools.

[thebignasty]

you mean before the bowl or after?

Before

[HogCzar1]

I'm sure that their talent, especially their speed will be noted, but this is just the beginning and as much fun as the last five years have been for their fans it is about to get better,  a lot better in fact.
[/quote]

Without question. ASU revenues which were $29 million last year are increasing by the day. When they get the expected P5 invite within the next few years, most likely the Big 12, some ASU supporters think that could easily get near the $75-80 million range.

[Seminole Indian]

I'm sure that their talent, especially their speed will be noted, but this is just the beginning and as much fun as the last five years have been for their fans it is about to get better,  a lot better in fact.


Without question. ASU revenues which were $29 million last year are increasing by the day. When they get the expected P5 invite within the next few years, most likely the Big 12, some ASU supporters think that could easily get near the $75-80 million range.

I don't think anyone associated with A-State, including fans, is expecting a P5 invite, but their AD said he expects to have an athletic budget slightly above 40 million in the very near future.

[BPsTheMan]

To have a game on CBS on a Friday Night early in the season will give ASU a great chance to make national waves. To get Verne and Gary Danielson would be a chance for ASU to show they belong in the playoff conversation.

You would have to think the Auburn game will likely be a featured ESPN telecast.

the Wolfs are going to beat Auburn by at least 21

[HogCzar1]

I don't think anyone associated with A-State, including fans, is expecting a P5 invite, but their AD said he expects to have an athletic budget slightly above 40 million in the very near future.

While it is fair to say that nobody at A-State is publicly stating that they are expecting a P5 invite, behind the scenes that is exactly what they are working toward. They understand the changing landscape in college athletics right now, and know that reorganization is likely in the next few years. They also know that changing to another G5 conference won't get them where they want to go.

I can't think of another school in the country who expects to increase their revenue over 25% in the short term, as was mentioned ASU is without even a major TV contract. That type of growth in this economy is likely unmatched. ASU officials and upper level supporters are privately confident they can present a better case to the Big 12 than some of the more commonly mentioned schools such as Cincinnati, Memphis, BYU, and Central Florida.

[Seminole Indian]

While it is fair to say that nobody at A-State is publicly stating that they are expecting a P5 invite, behind the scenes that is exactly what they are working toward. They understand the changing landscape in college athletics right now, and know that reorganization is likely in the next few years. They also know that changing to another G5 conference won't get them where they want to go.

I can't think of another school in the country who expects to increase their revenue over 25% in the short term, as was mentioned ASU is without even a major TV contract. That type of growth in this economy is likely unmatched. ASU officials and upper level supporters are privately confident they can present a better case to the Big 12 than some of the more commonly mentioned schools such as Cincinnati, Memphis, BYU, and Central Florida.

Think they would move to the AAC in a heartbeat( their AD said they would), and that door might open.

I know they are publicly confident, for real tangible reasons, that they can compete  for the G5 spot in the post season starting right now, but that is it.

A-State has positioned it's program to where 8-9 wins, and a conference championship are expected, and i don't think many people realize what a really big deal that is, because P5, G5  or FCS winning, especially conference championships, trumps everything.

A-State's football program will be considered to be among the very best G5's every year going forward, and better than most P5's.

[ricepig]

A-State's football program will be considered to be among the very best G5's every year going forward, and better than most P5's.

Easy on the koolaid big fellow, someone might confuse you with a fan, lol.

[Seminole Indian]

Easy on the koolaid big fellow, someone might confuse you with a fan, lol.

I don't really like koolaid, and certainly am not a fan, but I am right, for real tangible reasons. Most of their fans don't know it, and certainly most Razorbacks fans, don't, but I think you know it.

Is it fair that most P5 programs know their programs, no matter how much they spend will not be though of as highly as the better G5's that spend far  less, and don't have to play a true P5 schedule? Probably not, but that will not change reality.

[Seminole Indian]

Found a link to this article on HowlYes.com:

http://sportschatplace.com/cfb-picks/2016/06/06/arkansas-state-red-wolves-2016-college-football-preview

Not aware that James Tabary, and Cameron Birse are out of the mix at QB but again reflects a positive outlook for 2016.

"Outlook: The Red Wolves defense appears unchanged for the most part but a quarterback and receivers need to be found and I believe Anderson has them which makes this team extremely dangerous in the Sun Belt."

[HogCzar1]

"A-State's football program will be considered to be among the very best G5's every year going forward, and better than most P5's."


[/quote]

That's why they are not going to be satisfied with a G5 conference affiliation. ASU officials and fans agree with the moderator. That is, that ASU's football program is better than at least half, if not more, of the current Power conference schools. I have talked with several ASU fans who think this year's team could win the SEC. This is not a surprise when you consider they are confident of making the playoffs this year.

ASU cannot afford to be left behind when the next round of realignment occurs. Those schools left outside the P5 will have a harder time than they do now. Also, there is talk that after realignment P5 schools will only play P5 schools.

Aligning with a P5 conference, combined with ASU's explosive growth in revenue will likely result in a revenue increase much larger than the 40 million that is soon to be reached according to the moderator.

[FineAsSwine]

I have talked with several ASU fans who think this year's team could win the SEC. This is not a surprise when you consider they are confident of making the playoffs this year.

This conversation must have been right before the "last call for alcohol" announcement, right?

[Seminole Indian]

"A-State's football program will be considered to be among the very best G5's every year going forward, and better than most P5's."




That's why they are not going to be satisfied with a G5 conference affiliation. ASU officials and fans agree with the moderator. That is, that ASU's football program is better than at least half, if not more, of the current Power conference schools. I have talked with several ASU fans who think this year's team could win the SEC. This is not a surprise when you consider they are confident of making the playoffs this year.

ASU cannot afford to be left behind when the next round of realignment occurs. Those schools left outside the P5 will have a harder time than they do now. Also, there is talk that after realignment P5 schools will only play P5 schools.

Aligning with a P5 conference, combined with ASU's explosive growth in revenue will likely result in a revenue increase much larger than the 40 million that is soon to be reached according to the moderator.

I totally disagree...........what realignment, and the other changes has done is relegate some formerly relevant programs to nothing more than stocking fillers, while opening the door for some of the have not programs.......like A-State, and paying them well in the process.

As far as P5's not playing G5's, that would benefit G5's more than P5's, but unfortunately is not going to happen.

The P5's cannot do without FCS much less G5's, and it would be suicide for many P5 programs, and their coaches know it. Half the SEC programs depend on a soft OC schedule to win enough games to make a bowl game, and the low-hanging-fruit in the P5's sure as heck don't want to schedule more loses, and already avoid the better G5's and FCS programs at all cost.

[HogCzar1]

When realignment happens, one of the talked about options is for each of the power 5 conferences to have 16 teams. If that happens, they will be in a tremendous bargaining position with TV.

At that point the concept of P5 and G5 will be a moot point. The P5 will command a huge TV contract. Within that, TV will not be interested in Alabama vs Coastal Carolina. Also, the schools who are charging huge dollars for premium seating will have customers who won't be interested in those games at those prices either.

At that point TV dollars will drive everything, and P5 schools will likely play only P5 schools. At that point, P5 schools will have no need for G5 schools. Without those large pay days, the G5 schools who depend on those games for revenue will be forced to come up with it on their own. Thus, making it much harder for them to sustain that revenue level.

[Seminole Indian]

When realignment happens, one of the talked about options is for each of the power 5 conferences to have 16 teams. If that happens, they will be in a tremendous bargaining position with TV.

At that point the concept of P5 and G5 will be a moot point. The P5 will command a huge TV contract. Within that, TV will not be interested in Alabama vs Coastal Carolina. Also, the schools who are charging huge dollars for premium seating will have customers who won't be interested in those games at those prices either.

At that point TV dollars will drive everything, and P5 schools will likely play only P5 schools. At that point, P5 schools will have no need for G5 schools. Without those large pay days, the G5 schools who depend on those games for revenue will be forced to come up with it on their own. Thus, making it much harder for them to sustain that revenue level.

I understand your logic, but realignment has already happened, the P5's have all the money, other that the AAC there is no TV money for the G5 Conferences, but some of the best programs in FBS will be G5 programs, A-State is one of those programs, and they fully expect to be ably to substantially grow their athletic budget in the short term.

The new Division I governance structure, and post-BCS playoff contract assures the G5's of their place at the FBS table, and some stability of income for years to come, and this was by design of the P5's, who want, and need the G5's.

I do think you could see the G5 Conferences that lose schools to the P5's not replace them, with 10 or 12 football playing members now being the more optimal size for a G5 Conference. The SBC is going to 10.

[ricepig]

I understand your logic, but realignment has already happened, the P5's have all the money, other that the AAC there is no TV money for the G5 Conferences, but some of the best programs in FBS will be G5 programs, A-State is one of those programs, and they fully expect to be ably to substantially grow their athletic budget in the short term.

The new Division I governance structure, and post-BCS playoff contract assures the G5's of their place at the FBS table, and some stability of income, for years to come, and this was by design of the P5's.

Based on what I've read, I do think you could see the G5 Conferences that lose schools to the P5's not replacing them, with  10 or 12 being the desired number of members for a G5. SBC is going to 10.

How do they plan on growing this budget without increased TV money, there's a limited amount of donor money to be had. I don't think Allison will keep giving $5M/yr, do you? Their fan base thinks $15/ticket is outrageous, so there's only so much money there.

[Seminole Indian]

How do they plan on growing this budget without increased TV money, there's a limited amount of donor money to be had. I don't think Allison will keep giving $5M/yr, do you? Their fan base thinks $15/ticket is outrageous, so there's only so much money there.

I just heard their AD on the radio say he expected their athletic budget to top 40 million per year in the very near future. Did not catch the how part.

To be honest was not really listening closely regarding the future budget, just the here and now budget, and i that regard they stepped up to the plate big-time.

[ricepig]

I just heard their AD on the radio say he expected their athletic budget to top 40 million per year in the very near future. Did not catch the how part.

To be honest was not really listening closely regarding the future budget, just the here and now budget, and i that regard they stepped up to the plate big-time.

So, $11M increase in what, 2-3 years? As they say, the devil is in the details. I'd like to see his budget projections.

[Seminole Indian]

So, $11M increase in what, 2-3 years? As they say, the devil is in the details. I'd like to see his budget projections.

I had no doubt you would, and sure wish I had been paying attention, but as I told a younger A-State fan the other day ............when you look back 25 years from now the most important two years for the program will probably be the last two, not the three before, not the coming season, but the last two.

While it was not mentioned specifically , that obviously includes the fact the most important budget in the history of A-State football was the budget they just approved.

If they make 40, fine, but everything I'm saying is going to happen, and very likely will happen, is based on "current state", not "future state". I like tangible things, in the here and now things , and how you compare to your real peers( those in your conference) , not your imaginary ones, in these known to be critical areas( specifically your talent) .

Current State they are one of the better (top 20-25) G5 , programs, and 2016 should help them continue to reinforce the fact they are now a 9 win +/-1 G5 program.

[HogCzar1]

This conversation must have been right before the "last call for alcohol" announcement, right?

Not at all. These folks believe it. They expect a top 20 finish. They are also counting on a P5 conference bid within the next couple years. And yes, they do firmly believe they will make the playoffs this year. As the moderator said earlier, they believe they are better than half of the P5 teams now. And, with expectations growing by the day, they see themselves as this year's Houston from 2015.

Like the moderator said, they expect their revenue to increase from $29 million to over 40 million next year. I'm not sure where this will come from, perhaps someone familiar with their budget can explain.

[ricepig]

Not at all. These folks believe it. They expect a top 20 finish. They are also counting on a P5 conference bid within the next couple years. And yes, they do firmly believe they will make the playoffs this year. As the moderator said earlier, they believe they are better than half of the P5 teams now. And, with expectations growing by the day, they see themselves as this year's Houston from 2015.

Like the moderator said, they expect their revenue to increase from $29 million to over 40 million next year. I'm not sure where this will come from, perhaps someone familiar with their budget can explain.

Well, since the get 48% of their budget from the students and university, I'd say the students.

[HogCzar1]

It is true that right at 50% of the ASU budget is subsidized. I would guess that they would raise more money from the students, and also use their political allies in Little Rock to help them as much as possible with state money.

[ricepig]

It is true that right at 50% of the ASU budget is subsidized. I would guess that they would raise more money from the students, and also use their political allies in Little Rock to help them as much as possible with state money.

Money for higher education hasn't increased more than around 1% annually, try again.

[Seminole Indian]

Well, since the get 48% of their budget from the students and university, I'd say the students.

Don't disappoint me Rice, you know many of their peers get a lot more up......to 80%+. You know they have been acknowledged for their frugality?  I know you don't like them (and they are hard to like) but be fair, because they are not a threat to the Razorbacks.

[ricepig]

Don't disappoint me Rice, you know many of their peers get a lot more up......to 80%+. You know they have been acknowledged for their frugality?  I know you don't like them (and they are hard to like) but be fair, because they are not a threat to the Razorbacks.

Nah, I just don't like their fans, haha. And since when were we talking about other schools? I was just trying to figure out where their 28% increase was coming from if they don't get a better TV deal.

[Seminole Indian]

Nah, I just don't like their fans, haha. And since when were we talking about other schools? I was just trying to figure out where their 28% increase was coming from if they don't get a better TV deal.

We have that in common, and lets be clear you mean their imaginary 28% at this point.

[ricepig]

We have that in common, and lets be clear you mean their imaginary 28% at this point.

True, they increased it a lot the last couple of years, but I was wondering where the next influx is coming from.

[HogCzar1]

If you look at the actual numbers, you have to get down to about number 60 in the list before schools make up about half of their revenue from subsidies.

I don't think the tone of the discussion is a comparison of the 2 schools. Rather, I think the question is on what basis ASU has been able to take a $29 million dollar budget last year, and grow it to over 40 million in the absence of TV money and ticket sales. That's a substantial growth, and a fair question. Especially when $14 million of the $29 million is subsidized.

[Seminole Indian]

I simply don't know the facts about there budget, but do know this AD has been able to make great advances in their facilities, and budget.

I also know for a fact he made a big deal to the National Media that UCA this coming year would be their last FCS game , but has gone 180 on that, so lets see.

[BPsTheMan]

I simply don't know the facts about there budget, but do know this AD has been able to make great advances in their facilities, and budget.

No doubt! Mojitos churns out an excellent steady product, TASTEFUL, and turns a hefty profit.

[Dropkick]

I'm not kidding

I simply don't know the facts about there budget, but do know this AD has been able to make great advances in their facilities, and budget.

I also know for a fact he made a big deal to the National Media that UCA this coming year would be their last FCS game , but has gone 180 on that, so lets see.

Not an indianredwolf fan but the AD has done an excellent job there. He will probably get some looks as higher profile jobs become open.

[Seminole Indian]

My interest in college football is recruiting for the most part other than the final scores, and overall season records, i don't pay much attention to the regular season. Normally just catch bits and pieces of games. I do find the 2016 Red Wolf regular season a little more interesting than most for a few reasons.

The fact that even though they lost a few coaches (including their OC) to P5 programs, they return their HC, and most of their staff for their third year, Conventional wisdom says you should really see a drastic improvement in a team in a staffs third year, primarily because they have been able to recruit players for their system. Will the third year under Anderson & Company follow conventional wisdom?

Even though they are returning the bulk of the talent that contributed to their nine win season last year, they are about to experience an influx of talent that is probably unprecedented in the history of their program. Will this talent take them to another level, of simply be disruptive?

The buyout for their coach is now doable for most P5 programs, so is a new coach a given? Their fans, and many in the media seem to think they will be looking for a new HC at the end of the year, and interestingly now view a coaching change as almost a good thing.

[BPsTheMan]

undefeated!