Gafford isn't ready

[riccoar]

That's not 100%, you need to discount that future higher payout for the possibility it does not occur.  Again, do the math and prove me wrong.

Don't need to.  If I go 20ish this year, and I am a lottery waiting a year, then waiting a year will be a higher payout even with waiting.  It's a gamble any way you go. 

[steveaustin69]

Don't need to.  If I go 20ish this year, and I am a lottery waiting a year, then waiting a year will be a higher payout even with waiting.  It's a gamble any way you go.

Is it guaranteed you move up to lottery? No.

I guess you don't understand present value or probability.

[hogsanity]

Is it guaranteed you move up to lottery? No.

I guess you don't understand present value or probability.

All most understand is that the Hogs will likely be pretty bad next year if Gafford does not come back, so they are playing NBA scout saying he isn't ready.

[Atlhogfan1]

Would be interesting to see how Gafford's role in our offense developed with playing with an actual PG and being a planned focus of the offense vs this season where his role has been to clean up the misses and messes of the ball hogs.  But I also think the theory of giving the scouts more to pick at can be a negative has merit. 

[hogsanity]

Would be interesting to see how Gafford's role in our offense developed with playing with an actual PG and being a planned focus of the offense vs this season where his role has been to clean up the misses and messes of the ball hogs.  But I also think the theory of giving the scouts more to pick at can be a negative has merit. 

He won't be the focus of the offense next year either, not here, that is not and has never been Mike's style. And before anyone point to Portis, Portis was a different player. He could step out and hit a 3, he could set a ball screen at the top of the key and if he got a mismatch he could take his man off the dribble. Gafford is still pretty much a back to the basket 10ft and in guy, and Mike offense is still going to be perimeter based offense.

[Atlhogfan1]

He won't be the focus of the offense next year either, not here, that is not and has never been Mike's style. And before anyone point to Portis, Portis was a different player. He could step out and hit a 3, he could set a ball screen at the top of the key and if he got a mismatch he could take his man off the dribble. Gafford is still pretty much a back to the basket 10ft and in guy, and Mike offense is still going to be perimeter based offense.

It's a guard system.  But I would think he would get some opportunities next season to show what his actual offensive skills are other than dunking. 

[hogsanity]

It's a guard system.  But I would think he would get some opportunities next season to show what his actual offensive skills are other than dunking. 

I guess when I think of a post man being the focus, I think of sets to get him the ball, making sure he touches it down low on most possessions.

[Adam Stokes]

For the Corliss comparisons, here are their freshman years. Doesn't seem difficult to me who will project better.

[steveaustin69]

For the Corliss comparisons, here are their freshman years. Doesn't seem difficult to me who will project better.

"Not 7'2"" made me lol

[cram224]

Watkins works with the bigs. Moses, Portis and Marshawn all improved their post game here.

I agree he is gone. Just not for the reason you are hinting at

Moses, he had a worse Sr year than Jr year so he regressed. Portis, if I'm not mistaken, went to a big guy camp in Las Vegas and improved after spending the summer there. Marshawn, he had more shots blocked back into his face than anybody I ever remember playing. Only one of the three is in the NBA.

[cram224]

His degree in what?  A job that might pay him $75K/year if he's lucky?  Or, he could sign a contract this summer that would earn him at least $5.5M at the ages of 20, 21, and 22 and possibly more if whatever team that drafts him picks up his fourth year option.  At $75K/year, Gafford would have to work 73 years to make $5.5M. 

So a degree from the UofA only gets you a $75K/year job? What does he major in, PE?

[thebignasty]

So a degree from the UofA only gets you a $75K/year job? What does he major in, PE?

Would be beating the median graduate income by a chunk if he made that.

https://www.payscale.com/research/US/School=University_of_Arkansas_-_Main_Campus/Salary/by_Degree

[steveaustin69]

So a degree from the UofA only gets you a $75K/year job? What does he major in, PE?

The majority of undergrad graduates are not sniffing $75K in their first job. Assuming OP used that figure in perpetuity for simplicity's sake. The point is very few gigs are getting you anywhere near the money the NBA does even over an extended period of time (duh)

[99toLife]

So a degree from the UofA only gets you a $75K/year job? What does he major in, PE?

PE might get you 40K with a masters degree out of college, . Seriously, 4 yr degree only gets you $75K out of the gate?  My guess you didn't go to college at all let alone get a degree.

[The_Bionic_Pig]

All most understand is that the Hogs will likely be pretty bad next year if Gafford does not come back, so they are playing NBA scout saying he isn't ready.

Hogsanity you've always had a way of finding the negative in a unassuming thought my friend.

Did it occur to you that the optimism of a very athletic Chaney, Bailey and Henderson interior could be much more potent with a Gafford in-play.

A fan base will selfishly always want a NBA player to stick around and will reinforce it with varying opinions. At the same time they will have our full support as a NBA representative of the University of Arkansas.

Barford, Beard & Macon are volume shooters who often relied & excelled with ISO plays.

Most have the prospective that CJ Jones can not be relied upon as a consistent scorer with O'ley defense and ball handling still being a weakness heading into his Junior year.

Jaylen Harris (Anton replacement) is a facilitator purely and with a year in the system already has a jumpstart on the incoming freshman.

Keyshawn Embrey has Jay-Barfords dna.  Not assuming the same production he is the same build, height and plays the exact same position.

Desi Sills although not a pure point can easily manage the position and is probably the best man on man defender the moment he steps foot on campus.

Zay may be the next great shooter to hit campus, the kid has ridiculous range but isn't reliant upon it as his source of offense.   

Desi & Zay can both score in bunches as appearently from the high school playoffs.   Although the SEC is a totally different creature their previous AAU campaigns vs elite talent is still a testimony to their shooting prowles.

Cook & Thomas although a none-factor last season and the majority of this season until the light came on with Thomas.  Dro, Chaney & Henderson should more than makeup for their total production (or lack their of)

[The_Bionic_Pig]

Moses, he had a worse Sr year than Jr year so he regressed. Portis, if I'm not mistaken, went to a big guy camp in Las Vegas and improved after spending the summer there. Marshawn, he had more shots blocked back into his face than anybody I ever remember playing. Only one of the three is in the NBA.

I see your infactution with Chris Beard has you calling for MA's head if we're not a sweet 16 team next season.

Let me first inform you that the Texas fanbase has their former asst. Coach in their cross hairs to replace Shaka at the conclusion of the 2019 season.

So this perfect scenario of event's you have envisioned in that head of yours and other's who spew nothing but venom towards the current Head Coach.

My suggestion is put more focus on being a Razorback fan than hoping Gus Malzahn saves the day again.

[The_Bionic_Pig]

For the Corliss comparisons, here are their freshman years. Doesn't seem difficult to me who will project better.

His stats are eerily similar to BP's now image him having the same improvement with Chaney & Henderson's production instead of Cooks & Thompson.

Bobby Portis Freshmen year: 12.3 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.6 blocks

Bobby Portis Sophomore year: 17.5 points,  8.9 rebounds and 1.4 blocks.

Optimism is what a lot have invisions...

[hogsanity]

His stats are eerily similar to BP's now image him having the same improvement with Chaney & Henderson's production instead of Cooks & Thompson.
Bobby Portis Freshmen year: 12.3 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.6 blocks

Bobby Portis Sophomore year: 17.5 points,  8.9 rebounds and 1.4 blocks.

Portis was a different dude. Could step out and hit a 3. Could knock down the shot from about 17 if he got it at the high post. Could catch the ball 20+ ft away and get himself open. Portis appears to be more of a traditional, back to the basket kind of player. Not saying his #'s would not improve next year, just that the comparison to BP is tough due to the two having a different skill set.

[AHorseWithNoName]

Someone please tell me what offensive moves he has?   Besides posting close to the basket and forcing his way to the rim (either dunking/laying the ball in, or getting it blocked), what offense does he bring to the table? 

[steveaustin69]

Someone please tell me what offensive moves he has?   Besides posting close to the basket and forcing his way to the rim (either dunking/laying the ball in, or getting it blocked), what offense does he bring to the table?

Doesn't need one with his athleticism in today's NBA. To survive as a non shooting big in the league you need to be a force diving to the rim on PnR and protect the rim on the other end. Gafford does both exceptionally well.

[cram224]

PE might get you 40K with a masters degree out of college, . Seriously, 4 yr degree only gets you $75K out of the gate?  My guess you didn't go to college at all let alone get a degree.

I just never worked for less than $75k/year. I'm retired now, but raised two kids. They both make more than $75K/year. They wanted more than a PE degree. One post above said a player taken in the late first round made about $15m/over 5 years. After paying an agent, your handlers, hanger/on's and taxes that's not a lot of money. There is plenty of stories of broke NBA players.

[steveaustin69]

I just never worked for less than $75k/year. I'm retired now, but raised two kids. They both make more than $75K/year. They wanted more than a PE degree. One post above said a player taken in the late first round made about $15m/over 5 years. After paying an agent, your handlers, hanger/on's and taxes that's not a lot of money. There is plenty of stories of broke NBA players. still a hell of a lot more money than you're gonna make in the same time frame at a normal job.

FIFY

[Hogz87]

The majority of undergrad graduates are not sniffing $75K in their first job. Assuming OP used that figure in perpetuity for simplicity's sake. The point is very few gigs are getting you anywhere near the money the NBA does even over an extended period of time (duh)

I'm not sure why I used $75K.  I know that's awfully high for a starting salary for most four year degrees.  I should've said $50K, but yes, I used $75K for simplicity's sake.  I have no idea what Gafford's major is, but I have a B.S. in education and my starting salary was just a shade under $40K.  My point was that even if Gafford's average salary over, say, the first 5 or 10 years of his working career was as high as $75K, which is on the high side, he'd have to work 73 years to earn the $5.5M he'd earn in his first three years in the NBA as the 20th pick.

[cram224]

I'm not sure why I used $75K.  I know that's awfully high for a starting salary for most four year degrees.  I should've said $50K, but yes, I used $75K for simplicity's sake.  I have no idea what Gafford's major is, but I have a B.S. in education and my starting salary was just a shade under $40K.  My point was that even if Gafford's average salary over, say, the first 5 or 10 years of his working career was as high as $75K, which is on the high side, he'd have to work 73 years to earn the $5.5M he'd earn in his first three years in the NBA as the 20th pick.

I think teachers are very under paid and deserve more than $40K. It was a Jr High teacher that pointed me in the right direction in my career.

[AlmaHog2011]

I think teachers are very under paid and deserve more than $40K. It was a Jr High teacher that pointed me in the right direction in my career.

I taught and coached mostly. Most I made was 45k. Real teachers and real coaches are very under paid. It's a shame you aren't getting the best for teachers at this point.

Gafford would be not smart to come back if he is solidly in the first round.

[Sharky]

Another year would make him a lot more money and provide us fans a lot more fond memories. Yeah, I agree, he's not really ready.

He might not be ready, but it's just flat out wrong to say he would make more money if he stayed. Rookie contracts are pre-set for two years, with two years of options. So, a decent rookie will be retrained under the pre-set options four years. He can really cash in only after four years in the NBA. The sooner the rookie gets to that four-year point, the sooner they can get that bump in salary. So, that bump alone could be $10 million, and the extra year of NBA playing time could be worth more like $15-20 million.

[Tejano Jawg]

I think "should he go" and "is he ready" are 2 different questions.

We can debate the first one—if he waits a year, how different will the $$ be, and so on. But there's no hesitation about the second question is there? Think about an NBA team, any one of them. Does Gafford's game fit in right now? What will he do going up against the forwards—Lebron? Draymond Green? LaMarcus Aldridge? Blake Griffin? Kevin Love? Or Kevin Durant?

Or how will he do against the centers—DeMarcus Cousins? Al Horford? DeAndre Jordan? Is Gafford ready to tangle with guys who are 6-9 to 7 ft, 240 to 270?...including big guys who have an outside shot.

I think the OP points out "the eye test," which is where my head is. Week in and week out, is he dominating all the other bigs? I see amazing individual plays, maybe some great games, but not a consistent force. Again, where he is right now may not be what the offering group cares about.

[Soooie21]

Portis was a different dude. Could step out and hit a 3. Could knock down the shot from about 17 if he got it at the high post. Could catch the ball 20+ ft away and get himself open. Portis appears to be more of a traditional, back to the basket kind of player. Not saying his #'s would not improve next year, just that the comparison to BP is tough due to the two having a different skill set.

Plus, Portis has those crazy eyes..

[logic]

Why not...

Because, except for degrees in engineering, medical, law, and a few others and degrees from elite colleges (Harvard, Princeton, etc.), most colleges degrees are worthless and, like a high school diploma, will get you an entry level job at Walmart or Wendy's.

[logic]

Geez when are you guys going to learn that today's NBA has NOTHING to do with a player "BEING READY", because kids are coming out early they are PROJECTING what type of player the kid will be with maturation and working on his game full time. Right now Gafford is projected as a mid first round player, regardless of what the pot belly arm chair scouts think of his readiness. Now you decide what you would do based on this:
https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale

I would go.  First, your percentage increases are greater for lower picks and second, you become a free agent making big money one year sooner.  Other, than the fact it is more fun being a star in college than riding the pine in the pros, there is no reason to stay. Certainly college basketball players at Arkansas are not getting an education and even if they get a degree, it will be a worthless degree.

[Sharky]

Because, except for degrees in engineering, medical, law, and a few others and degrees from elite colleges (Harvard, Princeton, etc.), most colleges degrees are worthless and, like a high school diploma, will get you an entry level job at Walmart or Wendy's.

They aren't really worthless if you want basically any office job. If you want to work in a trade, then they might be worthless.

[MountieDawg]

For the Corliss comparisons, here are their freshman years. Doesn't seem difficult to me who will project better.

You cant teach 7ft and athletic

[MemphisBossHog]

You cant teach 7ft and athletic

I understand the thinking here and I have heard others say it as well, but I am a Memphis Grizzlies season ticket holder for 10 years now and back in 2009, the Grizzlies had the 2nd overall pick.  Their front office folks wanted to pick Steph Curry or Tyreke Evans or James Harden, but the owner, Michael Heisley, was convinced by one of his personnel folks that "you cant teach 7ft and athletic" so Heisley overruled everyone and the Grizzlies picked Hasheem Thabeet from UCONN at 7'3" and being the Big East defensive player of the year.  You cant teach height and he would develop and learn and all that.  Well he didnt.

It was the single most pathetic pick I can think of and put the franchise back years.   The Clippers picked Blake Griffin with #1 and we picked Thabeet when we could have had James Harden or Steph Curry--to this day it makes Grizzlies' fans sick.  So no longer will I ever agree with the thinking that you cannot teach 7ft and athletic as the sole reason to pick a tall, athletic player.  Now I dont think Gafford is a player like "Thabust" but sometimes height isnt everything.

http://www.espn.com/nba/draft2009/index?topId=4279081

Do I think Gafford is ready for the NBA??  Heck no--no way shape or form, but if some team is willing to pay him to sit on its bench and develop while he still gets paid, then I cant tell the kid not to take the money.  But for right now, NBA players would eat Gafford alive.  He isnt strong enough and he cannot shoot well enough from the outside.  Being a good dunker isnt what makes an NBA player.  Heck, strong athletic college players take Gafford out of his game-and what really is his game?  Dunking??  Would love to see him try to take Deandre Jordan to the hole and get his shot off without getting blocked.  He just isnt ready.

I hope he stays at Ark and gets stronger and develops at least some type of midrange shot.  The NBA is chocked full of 6-9 to 6-11 guys who can run and jump and dunk and they are older and stronger than Daniel is. He has a tough decision to make. 

[Nashville Fan]

Maybe Scotty can talk to him about coming out if it is not 100% first rounder.