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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

DadVader1

November 28, 2012, 10:40:03 am #1951 Last Edit: December 01, 2012, 12:49:10 pm by DadVader1
Here's what I've done so far this week:

Cincinnati -5.5 @ Conn. (1 unit)
Kansas +19.5 @ W. Virginia (1 unit)
S. Alabama +5.5 @ Hawaii (1 unit)

I haven't followed these teams closely, so these are all small plays based more on a spreadsheet review than anything else.

EDiT: Added 3 more units to each.

 

widespreadsooie

What's up with Kent St. getting 6 Friday night? Seems kinda easy. Like the Bama/UGA under too at 50.

Hawgndaaz

any action tonight?
Rutgers -3.5
Falcons -3.5

Think im taking Rutgers and maybe teasing Falcons up.

Falcons +2.5  o/u 61 UNDER


For sunday:
6 pt teaser
49ers -1  o/u 34 OVER


Hooch

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on November 29, 2012, 01:36:29 pm
any action tonight?
Rutgers -3.5
Falcons -3.5

Think im taking Rutgers and maybe teasing Falcons up.

Falcons +2.5  o/u 61 UNDER


For sunday:
6 pt teaser
49ers -1  o/u 34 OVER

Thinking I am going to go Saints +4

widespreadsooie

Like Rutgers. Also taking K State and UGA Saturday.


Hawgndaaz

Did you guys buy the half to -3? mine still says -3.5

WILL CLINTON

FWIW, vegasinsiders free picks are Rutgers and Falcons.


Last week wasn't great, 5-6, but lost a LOAD on LSU v Arkansas. Serves me right I guess and I was playing with house money, so not as big of a deal as it was on Saturday as it was happening.

LSU -12....3*  L
Ohio St -4.5....1*  W 
Louisville -13....1*  L
Georgia -14....2*  W
Oregon -10.5....2*  W
Clemson -4....1*  L
bowling green -8....1*  L
Ball st -9....1*  L 
Notre dame -5....3*  W
Pats -7....1*  W
LSU -11....3*  L 


Record 49-42-1 (53%) Profit $4056 Bankroll $6056 ROI 203%

There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Hawgndaaz


DadVader1

I added Rutgers -2.5 (4 units, bought the hook)

yraciv

November 29, 2012, 05:47:13 pm #1961 Last Edit: December 01, 2012, 11:12:20 pm by yraciv
YTD: 62-43-1, +28.5 units

2 units
Louisville +3.5 W
UCLA +10 W

1 unit
Bama -8 L
Pitt -7 W
Wis +3 W

WILL CLINTON

For today:

Bama -8....1*
Nebraska -3....1*
Boise St -8....1*
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

 

yraciv

Another solid day at the office!  Hate to see the season come to an end.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Rams +7.5 / 3 units
Indy + 6.5 / 3 units
Pats -7 / 3 units
Steelers +7.5 / 3 units
Cincy -1 / 3 units

Rams, Pats, Colts three team parlay 1 unit.
Let's make some waves.

DadVader1

Jeff, you SLAYED it today!  THANKS for sharing!  I think that was the first NFL parlay I have ever hit (I bought the hook to get the Pats -6.5 in the parlay).

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: DadVader1 on December 02, 2012, 06:42:51 pm
Jeff, you SLAYED it today!  THANKS for sharing!  I think that was the first NFL parlay I have ever hit (I bought the hook to get the Pats -6.5 in the parlay).

Thanks man. This is the time of year I make my coin.  Hope you won huge!
Let's make some waves.

widespreadsooie

Took the Hogs -3 tonight. May get it at 3.5 though, bookie hasn't texted me back yet and the line moved literally a second after I texted him.

Anyone scoped any bowl lines yet?

DadVader1

December 04, 2012, 09:35:48 am #1968 Last Edit: December 06, 2012, 10:36:29 pm by DadVader1
Went 1-3 on the week last week for a -8 week, making it +21 for the season.  Finished the SEC Rant ATS contest in third place at 67% for the season (two folks tied for first at 70%).  I'm not counting the NFL plays that I luckily copied from Jeff on Sunday.

As we approach the Bowls, any words of wisdom from you veterans on what you do differently on your Bowl picks?  It's my impression that there are more issues to consider than during the regular season, like coaching changes and whether or not the team wants to be in that particular bowl and will show up to play.  Someone once told me to always take the points in bowl games.  I did some checking and decided that that was not a sound strategy.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Well hmmmm. I have been thrown off by the coaching search. Time to put it all aside and pick winners. If you notice I left college alone last week, but Sunday was nice.  Very nice. Lets do it again and all make some coin.
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: DadVader1 on December 04, 2012, 09:35:48 am
Went 1-3 on the week last week for a -8 week, making it +21 for the season.  Finished the SEC Rant ATS contest in third place at 67% for the season (two folks tied for first at 70%).  I'm not counting the NFL plays that I luckily copied from Jeff on Sunday.

I got a decent start on the database design but will probably use a combination of spreadsheets and a database for next season.  Thanks to Google, I've had a pretty steep learning curve with Excel and have figured out how to do things with it that I had no idea you could do with a spreadsheet.  It's going to be pretty sweet by the time next season rolls around.

As we approach the Bowls, any words of wisdom from you veterans on what you do differently on your Bowl picks?  It's my impression that there are more issues to consider than during the regular season, like coaching changes and whether or not the team wants to be in that particular bowl and will show up to play.  Someone once told me to always take the points in bowl games.  I did some checking and decided that that was not a sound strategy.

Honest answer and obviously this could be wrong, but I bet bowl games on the best QB playing.  Never ever bet a bowl game until 48 hours before kickoff.  College kids and anything can happen as far as last minute suspensions o.
Let's make some waves.

DadVader1

December 06, 2012, 10:45:07 am #1971 Last Edit: December 07, 2012, 09:54:29 am by DadVader1
Thanks for the tips on differences in picking bowl games!  They make sense.

You know it's been an interesting week when this thread slips to page 7. 

I took Navy -6.5 @ Army (5 units, bought the hook)

This is a spreadsheet play.  The higher than normal units is mainly because there aren't a lot of other games this weekend and is not because I have strong feeling about this one.

Added: Denver -9.5 @ Oakland (5 units, bought the hook, same reasoning as above) W

DadVader1

December 06, 2012, 02:57:15 pm #1972 Last Edit: December 07, 2012, 09:54:56 am by DadVader1
Decided to test the waters with some college basketball.  Added:

San Diego St. -15 v. UC Santa Barbara (1 unit) L
Syracuse -21.5 v. Long Beach St. (1 unit) W
Xavier -10.5 v. Vandy (1 unit) L

Hooch


 

widespreadsooie

May play OAK and the points. Double digit home dogs are something like 22-1 ATS in the last 23. Can't really find a point to back the Raiders on though other than that. They suck really bad.

Hawgndaaz

Quote from: Hooch on December 06, 2012, 03:04:58 pm
Going Denver -10 tonight

Teased denver to -3.5 and 42 Over

Hope it hits, i had an awful weekend :(

Hooch

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on December 06, 2012, 04:34:07 pm
Teased denver to -3.5 and 42 Over

Hope it hits, i had an awful weekend :(

Only thing you have to worry about I think is if Oak can score enough to get it over 42.  I could see a 34-10 or 17 game. 

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Not playing this game, but if I did I would take raiders + and the under.
Let's make some waves.

DadVader1

Added a few NFL games:

Atlanta -3 @ Carolina (2 units)
Tampa -7 v. Philadelphia (2 units)
Indy -4.5 v. Tennessee (2 units)
Seattle -9.5 v. Arizona (2 units)

I'll probably add Cleveland or Cincinnati later.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Titans +5.5 / 3 units
Bears -3 / 3 unuts
Rams +3 / 3 units
Packers -6.5 / 5 units
Patriots -3 / 5 unuts


Three team parlay for 1 unit
Pats
Packers
Titans
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on December 06, 2012, 04:34:07 pm
Teased denver to -3.5 and 42 Over

Hope it hits, i had an awful weekend :(

Dude that avatar is just plain scary to me
Let's make some waves.

Hawgndaaz

anyone playing tonight?

I took NE -5.5 1.5 units

Over 50 2 units

The Great Hambino

Start posting your bowl confidence picks based on available spreads. :)

Hooch

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on December 10, 2012, 06:22:10 pm
anyone playing tonight?

I took NE -5.5 1.5 units

Over 50 2 units

I went NE as well. Now you got me thinking about that over, I expect a shootout. 

Hooch

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on December 10, 2012, 06:22:10 pm
anyone playing tonight?

I took NE -5.5 1.5 units

Over 50 2 units

Congrats bud.  I ended up going with my original bet then doubled up -.5 on Pats 2nd half line good night. 

DadVader1

For the second week in a row, Jeff's picks have saved me from my own picks and have turned bad weekends into good ones.  THANKS again Jeff!  You are on a roll!

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: DadVader1 on December 10, 2012, 10:39:14 pm
For the second week in a row, Jeff's picks have saved me from my own picks and have turned bad weekends into good ones.  THANKS again Jeff!  You are on a roll!


Thanks man killed it again along with nailing another 3 teamer.  Feel good when it's going this way.
Let's make some waves.

DadVader1

December 11, 2012, 08:58:20 am #1987 Last Edit: December 11, 2012, 11:16:38 am by DadVader1
Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on December 04, 2012, 10:03:48 pm
Never ever bet a bowl game until 48 hours before kickoff.  College kids and anything can happen as far as last minute suspensions.

And it begins ... 3 Oregon State players suspended after a bar fight (http://sports.yahoo.com/news/3-players-suspended-team-following-031625451--ncaaf.html

There are too many coaching changes to list without making this a really long post.  My initial thoughts were to pass on the teams that lost their coaches, but I'd like to hear other opinions on possible exceptions.  For example, with N.C. State adding Dave Doeren and W. Kentucky adding BP, if they end up coaching in their bowl games, could that be considered a wash? (gaining a really good coach but losing the continuity that goes along with having the coach that got them to the bowl game)

EDIT: Just saw that neither Doeren nor Petrino will coach their new teams in their bowl games.

widespreadsooie

Quote from: The Great Hambino on December 10, 2012, 06:48:10 pm
Start posting your bowl confidence picks based on available spreads. :)

Playing all of these: Rutgers +2.5 vs. VA Tech, Vandy -7 vs. NC St., OK St. -16.5 vs. Purdue, K St. +9.5 vs. ORE, A&M -4.5 vs. OK, OM -3.5 vs. Pitt, and ND +10.5 vs. Bama

widespreadsooie


Hawgndaaz

Quote from: Hooch on December 10, 2012, 10:38:42 pm
Congrats bud.  I ended up going with my original bet then doubled up -.5 on Pats 2nd half line good night. 

FRICK!

I do not know what happend, because I am almost certain i submitted my bets last night. Did it an hour before kickoff. Checked the halftime line and noticed my wager was allegedly never placed. Still got NE at -.5 2nd half but missed out on a 3.5 unit payout :(

DadVader1

This weekend, I like Utah St. -9.5 vs. Toledo.  I also like your Rutgers and Kansas State picks but probably won't pull the trigger on those until closer to game day.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

My leans against the line on all bowl games.

Arizona
Utah st
Byu
Ball st
ULL
Boise st
Fresno st
Central Michigan
San Jose st
Cincy
Ucla
La Monroe
Rutgers
Tx tech
Rice
Az st
W Virginia
Oregon st
Mich st
Vandy
USC
Iowa st
LSU
Okie st
Miss st
S Carolina
Georgia
Wisconsin
Fl St
Louisville
Oregon
Oklahoma
Ole miss
Arky st
Alabama
Bama 38 Notre Dame 24
Let's make some waves.

widespreadsooie

Who likes NO -3 vs. TB and DET -7 @ AZ on Sunday?

widespreadsooie

I mean, all DET has to do is kick a few FGs right?

DadVader1

December 13, 2012, 11:46:56 am #1995 Last Edit: December 14, 2012, 11:26:42 pm by DadVader1
These are my leans that I plan on playing:

Arizona (already played 2 units)
Utah State (a favorite: already played 5 units)
UL Monroe
UL Lafayette
Rutgers
Rice
Arizona State (a favorite)
Oklahoma State
Northwestern
South Carolina (a favorite)


EDIT:  Upon further study, I'm leaning more toward Oregon than Kansas State.  If I play this game, it will probably be a small play.  I've also decided to move one "favorite" selection from Arizona State to Vanderbilt.

EDIT 2:  More waffling.  I'm dropping Vandy, adding OSU & UL Lafayette, and making Arizona State a favorite again.

widespreadsooie

Quote from: DadVader1 on December 13, 2012, 11:46:56 am
These are my leans that I plan on playing:

Arizona (already played 2 units)
Utah State (a favorite: already played 5 units)
UL Monroe
Rutgers
Rice
Arizona State (a favorite)
Vanderbilt
Northwestern
South Carolina (a favorite)
Kansas State

Like the Rice play. Convince me on Utah St. and/or Zona. I'm trying to get some CFB action this weekend after nothing to play in two weeks. Hell, I almost played Ole Dominion last Saturday I was so bored.

DadVader1

Utah State has the better qb, the better coach (who turned down offers from Cal and Colorado), the better D, the better record, and the better record ATS.  A few rating systems with pretty good records when predicting Utah State to cover have also predicted that Utah State will cover.  Finally, Utah State is on a 6-game winning streak, and Toledo has lost 2 of its last 3 games, with its only win coming against 1-11 Akron.

Hooch

Quote from: widespreadsooie on December 13, 2012, 09:38:01 am
Who likes NO -3 vs. TB and DET -7 @ AZ on Sunday?

I like Det but don't like NO, think TB may win that game TB has found rushing games since they played early, and oh BTW the Saints have ZERO defense.  Probably best bet in that one is the over. 

Hooch