Defense is on the upswing

[niels_boar]

Our defensive efficiency has followed a familiar pattern in recent years.  It regresses significantly in January and then improves rapidly in February. So far, it's right on schedule this season.  I don't know why this has been occurring so consistently.  It may be that our depth starts to reap a big advantage when teams start to tire from the grind.

I looked at the five-game moving average of our allowed points per possession in each game versus the five-game moving average of the offensive points per possession that our opponents are averaging on the season.  That helps normalize for competition.  I then took the difference so that  a positive number means that we are holding opponents below their season averages over the previous five games and a negative number means that teams are scoring above their season averages against us.

Throughout nonconference we were well into the positive.  As soon as nonconference hit, we went straight down deep into negative territory during January.  However, it has improved just as rapidly in  the last couple of weeks back into positive territory.  In fact, our current number is comparable to one of our toughest stretch of games in nonconference from UNC to Minnesota. Our last five opponents average 1.065 ppp on the season by my estimations from bb reference box scores.  We have held them to just under 1.02 ppp over those five games. These raw numbers aren't exact, but the relative numbers should be close since they are all calculated with the same formulas.  To put that in perspective, at one point SEC teams were averaging 0.1 ppp better than their season average against us.  So, we have recently gone from -0.1 to +.045.

Based on individual stats, the improvement has occurred mainly because our FG% defense has tightened significantly all over the court, deuces and treys, along with an uptick in defensive rebounding.  Block rate has also soared to his highest point of the season.  That's not a coincidence.  We are actually forcing fewer TOs recently, while fouls have been relatively constant.  CMA has apparently tweaked the defense for those of you who believe that he trots the same gameplan out there every game.  More buy-in and energy from the players has probably helped as well.

Sidebar: the offensive efficiency hasn't had the dramatic swings that the defensive efficiency has had. We've been tightly oscillating around a set point just below 1.1 ppp in SEC play aside from the incredibly bad performance against LSU at home.  That was the most inexplicable offensive disaster that this team has had in recent years.

[hogsanity]

what would the defensive efficiency have looked like had they got to play SC/VAndy/OM the last 3 games of JAn, and in those places in the FEb schedule have to have played FLA/TN/Aub?

I'll get excited about the D when they hold someone like Aub to the shooting % that sc/vandy or om put up.

[FineAsSwine]

what would the defensive efficiency have looked like had they got to play SC/VAndy/OM the last 3 games of JAn, and in those places in the FEb schedule have to have played FLA/TN/Aub?

I'll get excited about the D when they hold someone like Aub to the shooting % that sc/vandy or om put up.

You won't get excited even then. You'll say the Auburn shooters were cold or that they just had an off night.

[Letsroll1200]

what would the defensive efficiency have looked like had they got to play SC/VAndy/OM the last 3 games of JAn, and in those places in the FEb schedule have to have played FLA/TN/Aub?

I'll get excited about the D when they hold someone like Aub to the shooting % that sc/vandy or om put up.

Vandy had scored 81 points in the last 4 games prior to playing Arkansas. How do you explain that? They played Auburn, Kentucky and UGA when they scored 81 points. Auburn is such a bad defensive team! Get behind this team and this coach because you have a top 3 coach in this league. 

[FineAsSwine]

Thanks for the info Niels. I think it is true that teams can get dead legged this time of the year and depth becomes a bigger factor. Would be interesting to compare the Hogs trajectory in terms of these defensive numbers with that of other uptempo teams who play at a pace similar to the Hogs.

[niels_boar]

what would the defensive efficiency have looked like had they got to play SC/VAndy/OM the last 3 games of JAn, and in those places in the FEb schedule have to have played FLA/TN/Aub?

I'll get excited about the D when they hold someone like Aub to the shooting % that sc/vandy or om put up.

Our SEC schedule was frontloaded with the best offensive teams.  The five-game moving average of our opponents' offensive efficiency peaked at 1.11.  We gave up 1.18 ppp.  Our nadir on defense was a stretch when our opponents averaged 1.08 ppp on the season but we surrendered 1.18 ppp.  So, giving up 1.02 ppp versus 1.065 ppp can objectively be called real improvement.  By this measure holding Auburn to 1.12 ppp would be the same as holding USC to 0.95 ppp.  Ergo, competition is taken into account.  I'm not claiming that the defense should be expected to hold Auburn to the same efficiency as USC.

[pghawg1]

 why is it some for you fans are not happy when we win? whether you like Anderson or not You should be happy for the kids.

[hogsanity]

Get behind this team and this coach because you have a top 3 coach in this league.

You couldn't just stop at get behind the team, you had to add in a ridiculous statement about the coach. A top 3 coach in this league would have been to more NCAAt's in 6 yrs than just 2. But you know that and it is why you said it.

[Iwastherein1969]

we should be on edge when A&M comes to town....it's time for close to 20k hillbillies to hang from the rafters when Aggy shows up Saturday...it's time to get our pint of blood from that institution

[niels_boar]

In SEC play only the offenses stack up as:

1. Auburn
2. Tennessee

3. Arkansas
4. UF
5. Vandy

6. LSU
7. MSU
8. Bama
9. Mizzou
10. AM
11. Ole Miss
12. UK

13. UGA
14. USC

The spread from LSU to UK is only 1.04 to 1.02 ppp, and the A&M team that we faced is better than their conference average.  It's not like the last five games have been against the dregs of the SEC on O.  Auburn and UT are particularly bad matchups for us, but that's a different discussion.

[daBoar]

Our defensive efficiency has followed a familiar pattern in recent years.  It regresses significantly in January and then improves rapidly in February. So far, it's right on schedule this season.  I don't know why this has been occurring so consistently.  It may be that our depth starts to reap a big advantage when teams start to tire from the grind.

I don't know about the prior season, but three of the guys who played really well yesterday, i.e., the freshmen, played like sophomores yesterday.  Perhaps they weren't ready in January.

[EastexHawg]

what would the defensive efficiency have looked like had they got to play SC/VAndy/OM the last 3 games of JAn, and in those places in the FEb schedule have to have played FLA/TN/Aub?

I'll get excited about the D when they hold someone like Aub to the shooting % that sc/vandy or om put up.

Since January 30 Vandy, South Carolina, and Ole Miss are a combined 1-13.  Vandy beat a terrible Georgia team that has won one of its last seven games.  Those four are absolutely the worst four teams in the SEC.  Georgia, South Carolina, and Ole Miss can't throw the ball in the ocean.  South Carolina and Ole Miss are each shooting 36% from the field during that stretch.  Georgia is a wretched offensive team that failed to even get up 50 shot attempts in three straight games.  They have shot 41% overall in their current stretch of puke-worthy basketball, but at least they were bad enough to give Vandy a win.

I don't know how anyone can watch the SEC this year and think it is a good basketball conference.  The skills...and I use that term extremely loosely...on display are pathetic for most teams and most of the time.

[99toLife]

Since January 30 Vandy, South Carolina, and Ole Miss are a combined 1-13.  Vandy beat a terrible Georgia team that has won one of its last seven games.  Those four are absolutely the worst four teams in the SEC.  Georgia, South Carolina, and Ole Miss can't throw the ball in the ocean.  South Carolina and Ole Miss are each shooting 36% from the field during that stretch.  Georgia is a wretched offensive team that failed to even get up 50 shot attempts in three straight games.  They have shot 41% overall in their current stretch of puke-worthy basketball, but at least they were bad enough to give Vandy a win.

I don't know how anyone can watch the SEC this year and think it is a good basketball conference.  The skills...and I use that term extremely loosely...on display are pathetic for most teams and most of the time.

The three teams you mentioned are all stacked at the bottom.  The latest bracket predictions still have 9 SEC teams making the dance at this time.  That's much better than the SEC has ever ever put in the dance if it holds up. 

[niels_boar]

Since January 30 Vandy, South Carolina, and Ole Miss are a combined 1-13.  Vandy beat a terrible Georgia team that has won one of its last seven games.  Those four are absolutely the worst four teams in the SEC.  Georgia, South Carolina, and Ole Miss can't throw the ball in the ocean.  South Carolina and Ole Miss are each shooting 36% from the field during that stretch.  Georgia is a wretched offensive team that failed to even get up 50 shot attempts in three straight games.  They have shot 41% overall in their current stretch of puke-worthy basketball, but at least they were bad enough to give Vandy a win.

I don't know how anyone can watch the SEC this year and think it is a good basketball conference.  The skills...and I use that term extremely loosely...on display are pathetic for most teams and most of the time.

I don't know how the SEC can be 10-6 against the Big 12 and be pathetic when almost every objective measure claims that the Big 12 is the best conference.  That's selective criticism that is a study in confirmation bias.

BTW Ole Miss in their last 4 home games:

Bama -> 1.21 ppp
Auburn -> 0.96 ppp
Mizzou -> 1.05 ppp
Arkansas -> 0.92 ppp

UGA was 7 games ago.  Giving up 1.1 ppp in Athens was part of our bottoming out on D.  You also neglected to mention that UGA took out UF by double digits in their next home game when cherry-picking your momentum argument.

[HeyHogs]

No doubt the defense has improved.  I wish I knew why.  Does not matter.  We will see just how much it is improved this Saturday.

[Hawg Red]

It's truly amazing how the same pattern seems to happen with Anderson's teams at Arkansas each season. That early-to-mid conference play lull and then a sharp snap back.

[navyhog24]

It's truly amazing how the same pattern seems to happen with Anderson's teams at Arkansas each season. That early-to-mid conference play lull and then a sharp snap back.

I'll consider it an upswing if we can beat the good teams, not the worst teams in the conference.

[zebradynasty]

There is more effort no doubt about it. That's mainly coming from Hall and Obi One! We still give up to many open looks for 3's. However, most of that is because we still get beat off the dribble too easy and someone has to help. I do think the timing of our trapping has improved it's not all the time and anywhere trapping leaving people open. Beard needs more discipline in this area. Sometimes he takes way too many risk and leaves guys open.

[niels_boar]

I'll consider it an upswing if we can beat the good teams, not the worst teams in the conference.

We're 2-3 against the top half of the SEC in the standings. 2 - 2 against the top 4. 5-3 against the bottom half.  Considering that the refs at Starkville are the only reason that we are not 3-2 against the top half, I'm not seeing overwhelming predictive power in checking out the standings to this point.  Matchups in some cases trump record.

[Corkscrew Johnson]

It's hard to watch all the wide-open clanking of the past 3 games and attribute it all to "defensive efficiency".  We still struggle with our rotations, we still sag down to double-team post players who aren't a threat and leave open 3 point shooters. 

That being said, Hall clearly helps our defense, now that he is in the rotation.  I also do believe in the mid-year "dead leg" theory to some extent.  Finally, as we get closer to the end of the season, our energy picks up, our rotation shortens, and our opponents start playing more timidly with more on the line.  We feed off uncertainty. 

[99toLife]

I'll consider it an upswing if we can beat the good teams, not the worst teams in the conference.

I agree. 

[Hawg Red]

I'll consider it an upswing if we can beat the good teams, not the worst teams in the conference.

I'll take any and all wins. One game at a time. We're competitive and playing better than we were a few weeks ago.

[niels_boar]

It's hard to watch all the wide-open clanking of the past 3 games and attribute it all to "defensive efficiency".  We still struggle with our rotations, we still sag down to double-team post players who aren't a threat and leave open 3 point shooters. 

That being said, Hall clearly helps our defense, now that he is in the rotation.  I also do believe in the mid-year "dead leg" theory to some extent.  Finally, as we get closer to the end of the season, our energy picks up, our rotation shortens, and our opponents start playing more timidly with more on the line.  We feed off uncertainty.

I took a five-game moving average to smooth out random variations in play, both good and bad.   When criticisms are hurled at our O, I don't see a lot of sympathy for CMA when Barford and Macon go 1 of 11 from deep like they did against Ole Miss.  As if every one of those misses was a highly contested prayer.

[EastexHawg]

I don't know how the SEC can be 10-6 against the Big 12 and be pathetic when almost every objective measure claims that the Big 12 is the best conference.  That's selective criticism that is a study in confirmation bias.

BTW Ole Miss in their last 4 home games:

Bama -> 1.21 ppp
Auburn -> 0.96 ppp
Mizzou -> 1.05 ppp
Arkansas -> 0.92 ppp

UGA was 7 games ago.  Giving up 1.1 ppp in Athens was part of our bottoming out on D.  You also neglected to mention that UGA took out UF by double digits in their next home game when cherry-picking your momentum argument.

I didn't cherry pick anything.  I said Georgia has won one of their last seven games.  Florida was the one.

But since you mention them, what's so great about Florida?  Do they impress you?  Do you find them to be an outstanding basketball team?  I certainly don't.  They are 11-5 over the last two months.  That sounds pretty good, but take a look at their schedule and decide who they have beaten who is worth a crap.  Kentucky?  Kentucky is 3-5 in their last eight games.  Florida has lost to Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Georgia during that time.  We know who has beaten them, but who have they beaten?

Forget the records and watch the games.  The level of play is often awful.  You'll see guys who have little to no offensive skills and who make terrible decisions with the ball.  Is the conference athletic?  Yes, for the most part.  Is it full of guys who know how to play basketball and have honed their skill sets?  Not in my opinion.

[BallHog1]

what would the defensive efficiency have looked like had they got to play SC/VAndy/OM the last 3 games of JAn, and in those places in the FEb schedule have to have played FLA/TN/Aub?

I'll get excited about the D when they hold someone like Aub to the shooting % that sc/vandy or om put up.

I really doubt you will. You'll find some other reason to urinate on any and all positive thoughts concerning this team so quit acting like you won't.

[sadhogfan]

I didn't cherry pick anything.  I said Georgia has won one of their last seven games.  Florida was the one.

But since you mention them, what's so great about Florida?  Do they impress you?  Do you find them to be an outstanding basketball team?  I certainly don't.  They are 11-5 over the last two months.  That sounds pretty good, but take a look at their schedule and decide who they have beaten who is worth a crap.  Kentucky?  Kentucky is 3-5 in their last eight games.  Florida has lost to Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Georgia during that time.  We know who has beaten them, but who have they beaten?

Forget the records and watch the games.  The level of play is often awful.  You'll see guys who have little to no offensive skills and who make terrible decisions with the ball.  Is the conference athletic?  Yes, for the most part.  Is it full of guys who know how to play basketball and have honed their skill sets?  Not in my opinion.

"Good" is all relative here. The SEC is a "good" conference relative to the rest of the country. This is clear by any objective measure, and is why the pundits are consistently predicting the SEC will get 8-9 teams in the dance. It is ignorant, and beyond that, stupid, to dispute this.

It may still be true that you watch games and see players who are lacking in skill. Fine. But this is a problem that has beset college basketball for several years now. The SEC is not "good" based on how its teams would stack up to Arkansas in 1994, or UNLV in 1990, etc. It is "good" in the sense that the majority of its teams are well above average when compared to the teams playing in 2017-2018.

[Dirty]

what would the defensive efficiency have looked like had they got to play SC/VAndy/OM the last 3 games of JAn, and in those places in the FEb schedule have to have played FLA/TN/Aub?

I'll get excited about the D when they hold someone like Aub to the shooting % that sc/vandy or om put up.

What would this board look like if we didn't have posters like you!

[Corkscrew Johnson]

I took a five-game moving average to smooth out random variations in play, both good and bad.   When criticisms are hurled at our O, I don't see a lot of sympathy for CMA when Barford and Macon go 1 of 11 from deep like they did against Ole Miss.  As if every one of those misses was a highly contested prayer.

Listen, I'm not a Mike Anderson hater, but it's fair to point out that (1) our last 6 SEC games have been against literally the worst 6 opponents in the SEC standings, and therefore your statistical analysis is unlikely a regressional discovery and more likely dictated by selective data, and (2) we still are struggling with our rotations and ill-advised double teams, and if you can't see that, you probably aren't watching the game and instead are just looking at the box score. 

Now, if you want to have a constructive discussion about how to correct these inefficiencies, I would start by replacing Beard with Hall, while also scaling back our switching.  Coaches have caught on and early in the possession are running high screens to get a mismatch with their PG and our Center. 

[niels_boar]

Just to clarify.  I'm saying that the defense has been improving, not that I would eagerly expect Arkansas to lockdown an offensive juggernaut based on recent results.  The matchups have been more favorable of late, irrespective of record.  Nonetheless, Pomeroy had us north of #110 in defensive efficiency a couple of weeks ago.  We have moved back up to #82 since, and Pomeroy takes into account the quality of offenses faced.  I think there is a statistically significant case that the D is just better irrespective of competition, and the recent  competition has had more problems on D than O with the exception of USC .  For improvement consider that we scored 1.3+ ppp against Ole Miss at home and won by 4 points.  We scored 1.08 ppp in Oxford on slow days from both Barford and Macon and won by double digits.

[mykidsdad]

Listen, I'm not a Mike Anderson hater, but it's fair to point out that (1) our last 6 SEC games have been against literally the worst 6 opponents in the SEC standings, and therefore your statistical analysis is unlikely a regressional discovery and more likely dictated by selective data, and (2) we still are struggling with our rotations and ill-advised double teams, and if you can't see that, you probably aren't watching the game and instead are just looking at the box score. 

Now, if you want to have a constructive discussion about how to correct these inefficiencies, I would start by replacing Beard with Hall, while also scaling back our switching.  Coaches have caught on and early in the possession are running high screens to get a mismatch with their PG and our Center. 

I guess you missed the part of normalizing the data so that he is comparing the performance of the opponents against what they have done with the rest of their schedule. therefore it doesn't matter the opponent but rather the trend of the opponent against the rest of their season, i.e. if they were terrible, were they worse against us, if they were good were they less good against us.

[daBoar]

Listen, I'm not a Mike Anderson hater, but it's fair to point out that (1) our last 6 SEC games have been against literally the worst 6 opponents in the SEC standings,

Quite unfortunately for our SEC play, and no one (no one) knew this at the time, but Auburn, MSU and LSU were tough road venues to begin the SEC season, especially as Arkansas was not firm on the 3, 4 and 5 positions.  And, frankly, we weren't firm on the 1 position as we have two 2 guards starting.  With 20/20 hindsight we've learned that our out of conference was not as stellar as we first assumed.  Then, on the heels of a soft December, we encountered a tough (much more tough) road schedule than anyone imagined.  And, we did that while our best 3, 4 and 5 freshmen players were learning the game.  As of Valentines Day 2018, it's a different story; the team is maturing, figuring out its identity, and getting ready for the post season.

[sadhogfan]

I guess you missed the part of normalizing the data so that he is comparing the performance of the opponents against what they have done with the rest of their schedule. therefore it doesn't matter the opponent but rather the trend of the opponent against the rest of their season, i.e. if they were terrible, were they worse against us, if they were good were they less good against us.

Reading comprehension is (apparently) hard. But at least you have it!

[Atlhogfan1]

It's truly amazing how the same pattern seems to happen with Anderson's teams at Arkansas each season. That early-to-mid conference play lull and then a sharp snap back.

Takes him a while to figure out who to play and the lineup rotations.   Schedule broke right for us just in time this season as it did last season.  Why I thought all along we were still in good position to make the NCAAT back when we were losing.  Still looks favorable in the next 2 games.

OM put up 41 in the second half. 

Niels theory on opponents wearing down is a good one.  Hope we don't see it with our guards.