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Author Topic: Game at Ole Miss key to Hogs' season  (Read 753 times)

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WizardofhOgZ

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Game at Ole Miss key to Hogs' season
« on: February 11, 2018, 01:27:49 pm »

When we look back on Arkansas' basketball season in a few weeks, it is likely that the result this (upcoming) Tuesday night will have been the "swing" game, either way. If we win it, it will be the reason we held on and slipped into the NCAA field. If we lose . . . well, hello NIT!

We have six games remaining, and sit at 6-6. We MUST go 3-3 (or better, obviously) to get into the NCAA field. We have 3 home games - Texas A&M, Kentucky and Auburn; and 3 on the road (@ Ole Miss, @ Bama and @ Mizzou). I think that if you look at the home schedule, objectively, you'd say we have a "good" chance of winning each of those games, but a less than 50-50 chance of winning them all. In fact, from an objective probability standpoint, it's fair to say it's likely we won't win them all.

That being the case, we'd need to win at least one of our road games to reach 9-9 in conference. And, of the remaining road trips, the Ole Miss game seems to provide the best chance for a road win. So, this becomes a huge game for us.

We control our own destiny; win 3 (or more) games, whether at home or on the road, and we should be in (although with a 9-9 conference record, I'd feel a whole lot better about that if we could win at least one game in the SEC Tournament). But we take the slack completely out of the rope if we lose in Oxford.
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Rome26

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Re: Game at Ole Miss key to Hogs' season
« Reply #1 on: February 11, 2018, 01:38:20 pm »

When we look back on Arkansas' basketball season in a few weeks, it is likely that the result this (upcoming) Tuesday night will have been the "swing" game, either way. If we win it, it will be the reason we held on and slipped into the NCAA field. If we lose . . . well, hello NIT!

We have six games remaining, and sit at 6-6. We MUST go 3-3 (or better, obviously) to get into the NCAA field. We have 3 home games - Texas A&M, Kentucky and Auburn; and 3 on the road (@ Ole Miss, @ Bama and @ Mizzou). I think that if you look at the home schedule, objectively, you'd say we have a "good" chance of winning each of those games, but a less than 50-50 chance of winning them all. In fact, from an objective probability standpoint, it's fair to say it's likely we won't win them all.

That being the case, we'd need to win at least one of our road games to reach 9-9 in conference. And, of the remaining road trips, the Ole Miss game seems to provide the best chance for a road win. So, this becomes a huge game for us.

We control our own destiny; win 3 (or more) games, whether at home or on the road, and we should be in (although with a 9-9 conference record, I'd feel a whole lot better about that if we could win at least one game in the SEC Tournament). But we take the slack completely out of the rope if we lose in Oxford.

It's a big game but I think a win against Auburn and any other team besides Ole Miss would get us in.
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WizardofhOgZ

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Re: Game at Ole Miss key to Hogs' season
« Reply #2 on: February 11, 2018, 01:42:28 pm »

It's a big game but I think a win against Auburn and any other team besides Ole Miss would get us in.

Disagree.  The SEC is more talented, top to bottom, than it has perhaps ever been; but, it lacks super teams at the top.  I don't think teams with losing conference (SEC) records will get it . . . they never have (with the possible exception of a team that won 4 games in the SECT to get the automatic bid - but that's not what we're talking about).  There's a 10-20% chace we won't get in even if we go 3-3 (depending on who those 3 are), but we're out at 2-4, unless we win the SECT.  And we probably won't do that (3-3) unless we win in Oxford.
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Rome26

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Re: Game at Ole Miss key to Hogs' season
« Reply #3 on: February 11, 2018, 02:02:20 pm »

Disagree.  The SEC is more talented, top to bottom, than it has perhaps ever been; but, it lacks super teams at the top.  I don't think teams with losing conference (SEC) records will get it . . . they never have (with the possible exception of a team that won 4 games in the SECT to get the automatic bid - but that's not what we're talking about).  There's a 10-20% chace we won't get in even if we go 3-3 (depending on who those 3 are), but we're out at 2-4, unless we win the SECT.  And we probably won't do that (3-3) unless we win in Oxford.

Yeah you're right, 2-4 would probably put us on the wrong side of the bubble without winning a couple in the sec tourney
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rtr

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Re: Game at Ole Miss key to Hogs' season
« Reply #4 on: February 11, 2018, 02:05:20 pm »

A win Tuesday night could spark quite a fininsh for the Hogs.  If we would have pulled Mississippi State on the road and defended our home against LSU, think how different our season would look.
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WizardofhOgZ

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Re: Game at Ole Miss key to Hogs' season
« Reply #5 on: February 11, 2018, 02:18:24 pm »

A win Tuesday night could spark quite a fininsh for the Hogs.  If we would have pulled Mississippi State on the road and defended our home against LSU, think how different our season would look.

Yes - if we miss the tournament this year, we will have several "what if" games to look back on and lament.

Time to take care of business NOW!
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Jborohog09

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Re: Game at Ole Miss key to Hogs' season
« Reply #6 on: February 11, 2018, 02:21:21 pm »

Disagree.  The SEC is more talented, top to bottom, than it has perhaps ever been; but, it lacks super teams at the top.  I don't think teams with losing conference (SEC) records will get it . . . they never have (with the possible exception of a team that won 4 games in the SECT to get the automatic bid - but that's not what we're talking about).  There's a 10-20% chace we won't get in even if we go 3-3 (depending on who those 3 are), but we're out at 2-4, unless we win the SECT.  And we probably won't do that (3-3) unless we win in Oxford.

Hogs made it in 07 with a 7-9 SEC record, but they did have that run to the SEC title game which is what ended up getting them in.
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ShadowHawg

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Re: Game at Ole Miss key to Hogs' season
« Reply #7 on: February 11, 2018, 02:58:11 pm »

We have 4 games left against teams projected in the field right now. Ole Miss is far from make or break
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OS2 (SW) Razor Back

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Re: Game at Ole Miss key to Hogs' season
« Reply #8 on: February 11, 2018, 03:02:33 pm »

Go Hogs!!!

Beat Ole Piss!!!
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TNhawgfan

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Re: Game at Ole Miss key to Hogs' season
« Reply #9 on: February 12, 2018, 08:44:31 am »

When we look back i doubt it's the ole miss game we'll look at, it will be the miss state game. First conference road game, playing in front of a thousand people, up 6 with less than 2 to play...that's the game we'll go wth?
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mizzouman

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Re: Game at Ole Miss key to Hogs' season
« Reply #10 on: February 12, 2018, 08:57:59 am »

Ole Miss is not a must win even though you should win handily.

Any combination of 3-3 or better gets you in.  That being said, the committee loves streaks to finish up the season.  So, going 3-0 then going 0-3 appears to be worse than going 0-3, then 3-0. 
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OkieBack

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Re: Game at Ole Miss key to Hogs' season
« Reply #11 on: February 12, 2018, 09:05:27 am »

Ole Miss is not a must win even though you should win handily.

Any combination of 3-3 or better gets you in.  That being said, the committee loves streaks to finish up the season.  So, going 3-0 then going 0-3 appears to be worse than going 0-3, then 3-0.

This is how I'm looking at it.  Bottom line is you gotta win as many as you lose here on out but any game, home or away, from here on out is tough to predict. 
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cram224

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Re: Game at Ole Miss key to Hogs' season
« Reply #12 on: February 12, 2018, 09:06:41 am »

Looking at each teams remaining games. What do you think our seeding will be in the SECT? Planning on attending but need to work on flights. Just curious what everybody thinks.
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TNhawgfan

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Re: Game at Ole Miss key to Hogs' season
« Reply #13 on: February 12, 2018, 09:48:45 am »

Looking at each teams remaining games. What do you think our seeding will be in the SECT? Planning on attending but need to work on flights. Just curious what everybody thinks.
I think auburn, Florida, Tennessee, and A M will get the double byes. We'll be playing our first game on Thursday. Watch us get lsu for the 3rd time
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BDSCT51

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Re: Game at Ole Miss key to Hogs' season
« Reply #14 on: February 12, 2018, 10:37:42 am »

When we look back i doubt it's the ole miss game we'll look at, it will be the miss state game. First conference road game, playing in front of a thousand people, up 6 with less than 2 to play...that's the game we'll go wth?

MS State and the LSU games are it for me. I believe a loss to OM tomorrow will knock us out of the NCAA field for good this year. I hope I'm wrong!
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WizardofhOgZ

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Re: Game at Ole Miss key to Hogs' season
« Reply #15 on: February 12, 2018, 06:37:59 pm »

We have 4 games left against teams projected in the field right now. Ole Miss is far from make or break

As I said in my OP, 3-3 gets you in (probably), no matter which teams it is against.  Clearly, odds improve if you beat UK, A&M and Auburn; but on the flip side of that, a loss to Ole Miss would be a "bad" loss, and if we also lost to Bama and Mizzou on the road, our overall road record would be very suspect (another point of emphasis for the selection committee). 

I'm just saying that when you look at the next six games, we cannot afford to lose the most 'winnable' game (Ole Miss).  That just makes our task (winning at least 3 of the last 6) all the more unlikely.  We WILL have the games there to win our way in, but we make life much harder on ourselves and increase the odds of being left out if we lose in Oxford.
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