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Author Topic: Gafford draft projections  (Read 5699 times)

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riccoar

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #100 on: February 12, 2018, 12:42:07 pm »

Exactly. I've never understood people that think the players owe us anything as fans. They should do what is best for them and they don't owe us anything. I might not always agree with their decision, but I just don't understand the people that act like they owe us something or even the school something.
Who said they owe us anything?  I want to see the kid get the most money possible.  Right now, that's waiting another year.  Check out lottery money versus where he is projected.  Don't know his family's financial situation, but if you are planning on spreading the wealth, might wait a year.  People have no concept of money anymore.  Agent gets 20% and then Uncle Sam.  You say $1 million and people act like they are going to go buy a damn private island.
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urkillnmesmalls

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #101 on: February 12, 2018, 12:59:38 pm »

Who said they owe us anything?  I want to see the kid get the most money possible.  Right now, that's waiting another year.  Check out lottery money versus where he is projected.  Don't know his family's financial situation, but if you are planning on spreading the wealth, might wait a year.  People have no concept of money anymore.  Agent gets 20% and then Uncle Sam.  You say $1 million and people act like they are going to go buy a damn private island.

I'm betting it will hinge on how he plays versus better competition from here out.  But...if he's projected inside the top 20, then you have to question the benefit of coming back, versus the risks. 

It used to be that when I watched the NBA, I knew most of the names, because I saw them in college during their 3-4 years.  Now...I watch the NBA and see amazingly talented players that I've NEVER heard of, and have no idea where they even played.  The NBA knows the skillset that they can develop into solid players, and he's going to develop a LOT faster with developmental coaches, nutritionists, strength coaches, and a higher level of competition. 

His upside lies in learning to shoot from further away, and being strong enough to rebound versus NBA bodies.  He can do the rest fairly well.  The days of guys posting up in the lane calling for the ball in the NBA are almost gone...it's spacing, and clearing the lane.  The Shaq and Kareem days...all but gone.  So....unless he works hard enough to develop an outside shot, and puts on 25-30 lbs of muscle, how does his draft stock increase next year?    
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hogsanity

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #102 on: February 12, 2018, 01:08:26 pm »

I'm betting it will hinge on how he plays versus better competition from here out.  But...if he's projected inside the top 20, then you have to question the benefit of coming back, versus the risks. 

It used to be that when I watched the NBA, I knew most of the names, because I saw them in college during their 3-4 years.  Now...I watch the NBA and see amazingly talented players that I've NEVER heard of, and have no idea where they even played.  The NBA knows the skillset that they can develop into solid players, and he's going to develop a LOT faster with developmental coaches, nutritionists, strength coaches, and a higher level of competition. 

His upside lies in learning to shoot from further away, and being strong enough to rebound versus NBA bodies.  He can do the rest fairly well.  The days of guys posting up in the lane calling for the ball in the NBA are almost gone...it's spacing, and clearing the lane.  The Shaq and Kareem days...all but gone.  So....unless he works hard enough to develop an outside shot, and puts on 25-30 lbs of muscle, how does his draft stock increase next year?    

His draft stock is not going to increase much in college because the college game for him, and the nba game are very different. HE is not going to put on much weight in college. HE is not going to improve his shooting in college any more than if he were in the NBA, that is just a product of practice, and he can do that while making $ in the nba. The offense the Hogs run is not conducive to a 6'10" guy being the standout. Portis was because Portis had a different skill set, was a better ball handler and better at facing up. Portis could step out and hit a 3.

Gafford, whenever he is drafted, is going to be a project. Most NBA teams would rather have a 19 yr old project than a 20 year old.
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urkillnmesmalls

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #103 on: February 12, 2018, 01:26:44 pm »

His draft stock is not going to increase much in college because the college game for him, and the nba game are very different. HE is not going to put on much weight in college. HE is not going to improve his shooting in college any more than if he were in the NBA, that is just a product of practice, and he can do that while making $ in the nba. The offense the Hogs run is not conducive to a 6'10" guy being the standout. Portis was because Portis had a different skill set, was a better ball handler and better at facing up. Portis could step out and hit a 3.

Gafford, whenever he is drafted, is going to be a project. Most NBA teams would rather have a 19 yr old project than a 20 year old.

That's exactly what I'm getting at.  He'll gain closer to 10 lbs, be asked to do a lot more next season, and if he's not prepared for it...it could easily appear that he has regressed. 

If you're a scout....what are the concerns?  Getting pushed around on the block for rebounding position, FREE THROW percentage (that's huge in the NBA), and being a bigger threat to score. 

If he comes back next year roughly the same size and strength, doesn't shoot FT's any better, and hasn't developed better ball handling/shooting/post moves/rebounding....then isn't it easier at that point to be concerned about where his ceiling actually is? 

"Well, he had a year to develop, and he's right where he was last year."  Stock drops...possibly badly. 

If he had great tutelage, and you KNEW he was going to gain 20 lbs, be stronger and quicker, improve at the FT line dramatically, and develop a jump shot....AND end up a high lottery pick....I get it.  That's a LOT to ask, and I say if he's projected top 20....he should go.  I don't feel like he owes me anything, and I'll NEVER forget that block/dunk sequence from the other night.  Kinda like Qualls buzzer dunk against KY.   
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Hawg Red

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #104 on: February 12, 2018, 02:01:38 pm »

He can't score out of the paint, can't shoot freethrows. Everyone will be just as tall as him when he gets in the paint. He just needs to develop but that is only my opinion. Am i really that far off?

He's being viewed by the NBA has a legitimate first round prospect. So, yes, you are far off.
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niels_boar

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #105 on: February 12, 2018, 02:21:00 pm »

If Gafford is guaranteed of being a solid first-round choice, I would never tell him to stay, but it won't be an easy decision.  Half of the top-10 recruits for this season are 6' 10''+.  Next year's class has one.  Staying hasn't hurt Williams (pending staying healthy) even with the influx in talent, and the draft may be more favorable next season.

Gafford could benefit from another year of skill and body development, and he could move up enough in the draft to make it more than financially worth it.  Once the season starts, the NBA doesn't practice a lot.  I'm not totally convinced that a year of periodic trips to the D-league, if he isn't getting minutes, is better development than playing 30+ competitive games in college that mean something.  On the other hand, you've got a contract in case of injury.   If it were me, being risk averse, I would go with a guarantee of a top-25 selection but stay if dropping to the second round is a real possibility.

Regardless, I appreciate the extraordinary effort he gives on the court every night and look forward to having another player to follow in the NBA when he does decide to go.
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Hawg Red

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #106 on: February 12, 2018, 02:26:00 pm »

Who said they owe us anything?  I want to see the kid get the most money possible.  Right now, that's waiting another year.  Check out lottery money versus where he is projected.  Don't know his family's financial situation, but if you are planning on spreading the wealth, might wait a year.  People have no concept of money anymore.  Agent gets 20% and then Uncle Sam.  You say $1 million and people act like they are going to go buy a damn private island.

What are you considering "lottery money" because each slot in the lottery pays a different amount? He's currently projected #17 by ESPN in their latest mock (and I consider ESPN's mock draft to be very credible due to Jonathon Givony's connections -- he's talking to NBA folks) and that would pay him about 400k less than the last "lottery" pick. There isn't as much of a difference as you are trying to make it out to be unless you're suggesting he needs to come back for a shot to be the #1 overall pick. That's not going to happen. Out of 25 total picks in the top 5 of each of the last 5 drafts, 18 of those picks have been college freshmen or international players college freshmen-aged. Two of those picks were college juniors and 4 of the picks were college sophomores (all in the horrible 2013 draft) or a sophomore-aged international player (Mario Hezonja). You're basically saying he needs to come back to move up less than 10 draft spots probably. He's good where's at. I'd like to see him come back, too, and I think it would help him, but you cannot undersell or ignore the risk of doing so and oversell the need for him to. It's a situation that favors risk, if we're being honest. His draft stock right now is about where Bobby Portis' was after his sophomore season. If that's where it's at still after the season, you can expect that he'll probably go pro. And he probably should. Top 5 is likely out of the question even if he comes back so he's not missing out on that much money on the rookie contract if we assume he stays around that 17th pick. From the 11th pick to his currently-projected 17th pick, it's less than a million dollars difference starting out. If we're talking about him going pro only to make the league minimum, I'd see your point, but we're talking about him making about 2.5 million starting out. Take that. Don't overthink it.

I was supportive of Robert Williams' decision to come back for another year because I do like when guys bet on themselves and make their own decision, but he's projected right now right around where he was when he pulled out of the draft last year. You could argue that's a wasted season because he didn't improve his draft stock and that's one less year of earning. That was the argument against him coming back at the time and I'd have to say that argument won out. The truth is these kids shouldn't get too cute and try to come back when they're projected solidly in the mid first round like Williams was/is and Gafford is, or Portis was (because there were posters saying he needed to come back). The odds of improving your stock from an already-advantageous position are slim. Perhaps the best example of this is Marcus Smart coming back to school when he would have gone #2 overall to Orlando and he ended up falling to #6 to Boston. Now, I'd say while he did miss out on money, playing for Boston might have been better for his career, but that really depends on how much his second contract is this summer. Orlando would have probably extended him a good clip. There's a real chance he gets south of 10 million now. Not sure if playing in green and white and in the playoffs every year will make up for that money lost by going back to school.
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Hawg Red

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #107 on: February 12, 2018, 02:27:52 pm »

If Gafford is guaranteed of being a solid first-round choice, I would never tell him to stay, but it won't be an easy decision.  Half of the top-10 recruits for this season are 6' 10''+.  Next year's class has one.  Staying hasn't hurt Williams (pending staying healthy) even with the influx in talent, and the draft may be more favorable next season.

Gafford could benefit from another year of skill and body development, and he could move up enough in the draft to make it more than financially worth it.  Once the season starts, the NBA doesn't practice a lot.  I'm not totally convinced that a year of periodic trips to the D-league, if he isn't getting minutes, is better development than playing 30+ competitive games in college that mean something.  On the other hand, you've got a contract in case of injury.   If it were me, being risk averse, I would go with a guarantee of a top-25 selection but stay if dropping to the second round is a real possibility.

Regardless, I appreciate the extraordinary effort he gives on the court every night and look forward to having another player to follow in the NBA when he does decide to go.

Williams also hasn't helped himself. He's projected at the exact pick as he was when he pulled out last year. That's about 3 million lost and year further away from a second contract if that's how it plays out.
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Hawg Red

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #108 on: February 12, 2018, 02:36:12 pm »

Looking at recent drafts, I'm struggling to find players who really helped themselves by coming back to school *after* being projected in a solid range (we'll say at least mid first) the previous year. Maybe Jakob Pöltl, going #9 overall as a sophomore. I remember him being projected in the 20s after his freshman year. Maybe back in 2013 with Cody Zeller going top 4.
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hogsanity

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #109 on: February 12, 2018, 02:36:59 pm »

People saying he should stay as saying that because they want him here because it make next years Hog team better, period. They can say all they want about it would be better for him, etc. That is just BS, they have no idea what would or would not be better for him.
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niels_boar

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #110 on: February 12, 2018, 02:37:10 pm »

Williams also hasn't helped himself. He's projected at the exact pick as he was when he pulled out last year. That's about 3 million lost and year further away from a second contract if that's how it plays out.

Williams might still move up with A&M surging, and he probably would have moved up if not for all the bigs in this season's class.  Also, it's only money lost if he plays one less year in his career.  I don't think anybody can say for certain that he will or won't.  One less year of NBA tread and an extra year of body development to take the wear and tear may or may not extend his career.   The benefits and disadvantages aren't cut and dry.  As I said, however, the risk of injury would bias my decision towards leaving, though that isn't necessarily the decision that will work out the best.  It does have the highest floor, though.
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Hawg Red

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #111 on: February 12, 2018, 02:40:34 pm »

Williams might still move up with A&M surging, and he probably would have moved up if not for all the bigs in this season's class.  Also, it's only money lost if he plays one less year in his career.  I don't think anybody can say for certain that he will or won't.  One less year of NBA tread and an extra year of body development to take the wear and tear may or may not extend his career.   The benefits and disadvantages aren't cut and dry.  As I said, however, the risk of injury would bias my decision towards leaving, though that isn't necessarily the decision that will work out the best.  It does have the highest floor, though.

He played basketball at a high level for another year for free. That's money lost. That's money that he should have made in lieu of playing for free because he was already projected around the lottery. It's a clear illustration of the lack of upside in coming back for players already possessing favorable draft position.
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Hawg Red

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #112 on: February 12, 2018, 02:42:09 pm »

People saying he should stay as saying that because they want him here because it make next years Hog team better, period. They can say all they want about it would be better for him, etc. That is just BS, they have no idea what would or would not be better for him.

I agree. As a fan, I'd love to have him back. I support his decision either way. He would be risking more by coming back if, in fact, his draft stock is where it's being projected to be right now (or higher).
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hogsanity

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #113 on: February 12, 2018, 02:43:07 pm »

For all of you saying he should stay, think back to when you were in college. IF after your 1st year someone had come along and offered you 1mil+ in GUARANTEED money to leave school and pursue your chosen career how many of you would honestly have said, no thanks, I am going to stay here and keep working for free?
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99toLife

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #114 on: February 12, 2018, 02:44:02 pm »

For all of you saying he should stay, think back to when you were in college. IF after your 1st year someone had come along and offered you 1mil+ in GUARANTEED money to leave school and pursue your chosen career how many of you would honestly have said, no thanks, I am going to stay here and keep working for free?

NOT ME I can assure you.
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hogsanity

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #115 on: February 12, 2018, 02:45:00 pm »

I agree. As a fan, I'd love to have him back. I support his decision either way. He would be risking more by coming back if, in fact, his draft stock is where it's being projected to be right now (or higher).

It is like when Portis was a soph and he was projected around 15 and people were here saying he should come back so he might get in the lottery. It had nothing to do with that, and everything to do with they knew the next year's team was going to be horrible without him.
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riccoar

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #116 on: February 12, 2018, 02:46:01 pm »

Gaffords not going to regress.  He needs to improve from the FT line and develop the 8-10 foot shot around the basket.  Many games he was getting pushed around because of size.  If he goes, he will go 1st round.  Won't be lottery, but he will get picked.  I'd pick up a policy for injury and start training to become a guaranteed top 14.

And Williams stock drop was not 100% out of his control.  His suspension contributed to that as well.  Still he is projected as a lottery pick.
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311Hog

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #117 on: February 12, 2018, 02:47:32 pm »

Gafford may want to play with Justice Hill (he is probably coming next year right?).  Maybe his team mate gets his medical clearance, with Hall etc.

You are right in that Gafford probably will be a slightly bigger version of himself now next year, maybe he doesn't get as many foul issues, and maybe the SEC loses some bigs that makes his life easier.

I just think he will want to play with Hall, Maybe Garland and Justice.  Pass first PG not something you see every day.
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zebradynasty

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #118 on: February 12, 2018, 02:47:53 pm »

His draft stock is not going to increase much in college because the college game for him, and the nba game are very different. HE is not going to put on much weight in college. HE is not going to improve his shooting in college any more than if he were in the NBA, that is just a product of practice, and he can do that while making $ in the nba. The offense the Hogs run is not conducive to a 6'10" guy being the standout. Portis was because Portis had a different skill set, was a better ball handler and better at facing up. Portis could step out and hit a 3.

Gafford, whenever he is drafted, is going to be a project. Most NBA teams would rather have a 19 yr old project than a 20 year old.

Project ??? So you think that Gafford is a late first rounder even if he stays? I think Gafford has just as much, if not more talent than the forwards that KY has been putting in the NBA first round lately. KY runs a system similar to Arkansas that doesn't feature the post. If he improves as much as has in year one of college ball and reports for his soph season around 240ish...I think he's lotto. Teams normally don't waste lotto picks on projects.   
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jgphillips3

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #119 on: February 12, 2018, 02:48:12 pm »

If he is guaranteed first round, he needs to go.  If he’s second round or marginal, he should come back.  It’s pretty much that simple for me if I was advising him.
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niels_boar

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #120 on: February 12, 2018, 02:49:07 pm »

He played basketball at a high level for another year for free. That's money lost. That's money that he should have made in lieu of playing for free because he was already projected around the lottery. It's a clear illustration of the lack of upside in coming back for players already possessing favorable draft position.

That's not necessarily true.  He may play, say, 15 years regardless of whether he left this year or last.  The mileage may have as much  to do with the length of an NBA career as raw age.  It makes no difference in career earnings if he plays from 19 to 34 than from 20 to 35.   He plays more than two seasons worth of college games in an NBA season plus playoffs.  That's just a lot more stress on cartilage and tendons.
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99toLife

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #121 on: February 12, 2018, 02:49:43 pm »

Gaffords not going to regress.  He needs to improve from the FT line and develop the 8-10 foot shot around the basket.  Many games he was getting pushed around because of size.  If he goes, he will go 1st round.  Won't be lottery, but he will get picked.  I'd pick up a policy for injury and start training to become a guaranteed top 14.

And Williams stock drop was not 100% out of his control.  His suspension contributed to that as well.  Still he is projected as a lottery pick.
I haven't see where Williams is projected as a lottery pick, but still solid mid level 1st round. 
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Hawg Red

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #122 on: February 12, 2018, 02:53:17 pm »

Gafford could benefit from another year of skill and body development, and he could move up enough in the draft to make it more than financially worth it.  Once the season starts, the NBA doesn't practice a lot.  I'm not totally convinced that a year of periodic trips to the D-league, if he isn't getting minutes, is better development than playing 30+ competitive games in college that mean something.  On the other hand, you've got a contract in case of injury.   If it were me, being risk averse, I would go with a guarantee of a top-25 selection but stay if dropping to the second round is a real possibility.

You're right about practice during the season, but going pro would afford him the ability to hire high-level trainers as soon as he picks an agent. NBA players getting better once they enter the NBA by putting in their own efforts/resources. They hire coaches and trainers and that consumes their time. Gafford can still put in a ton of work if he stays in school but no where near to the extent he could if he could dedicate all of his time and money that he does not currently have. His agent could set him up working out with other NBA big men all summer.

The experience of being "the man" on a high-major team is the only pull that has me considering coming back being a good idea, but the more I look back at past drafts and not seeing players who came back despite good draft position when they chose to come back, the more I think he should just go at this point if his stock really does end up being in the mid first round. It's a much easier decision when it's like it was for Bobby after his freshman season where he would have been a late first-round pick at absolute best. I'm just not seeing much to gain as I look back at these players and where they're drafted for guys who have that mid first round grade in hand. There's something to be said for being "the man" but there's also something to be said for iron sharpening iron.
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Hawg Red

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #123 on: February 12, 2018, 02:53:38 pm »

I haven't see where Williams is projected as a lottery pick, but still solid mid level 1st round.

He is currently #13 in ESPN's latest mock draft.
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riccoar

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #124 on: February 12, 2018, 02:53:52 pm »

It is like when Portis was a soph and he was projected around 15 and people were here saying he should come back so he might get in the lottery. It had nothing to do with that, and everything to do with they knew the next year's team was going to be horrible without him.
If Gafford could do the things Portis could do, Gafford would be legit lottery pick.  The only reason you leave this year is money, but I just don't see him pushing out of the lower portion of the 1st round.  Not with so many guys at his size that are more developed.
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Hawg Red

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #125 on: February 12, 2018, 02:55:03 pm »

That's not necessarily true.  He may play, say, 15 years regardless of whether he left this year or last.  The mileage may have as much  to do with the length of an NBA career as raw age.  It makes no difference in career earnings if he plays from 19 to 34 than from 20 to 35.   He plays more than two seasons worth of college games in an NBA season plus playoffs.  That's just a lot more stress on cartilage and tendons.

What kind of money is he going to be playing for at 35 years old, though? Probably the bare minimum, not late lottery/mid first round money.
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niels_boar

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #126 on: February 12, 2018, 02:55:43 pm »

For all of you saying he should stay, think back to when you were in college. IF after your 1st year someone had come along and offered you 1mil+ in GUARANTEED money to leave school and pursue your chosen career how many of you would honestly have said, no thanks, I am going to stay here and keep working for free?

Well, actually I turned down real money for me to go to graduate school in order to spend long nights in a lab for virtually nothing.  The tradeoff was extra training and future earnings. The difference is that the money after school only went in one direction.  I wasn't going to earn less for developing carpal-tunnel syndrome.
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Hawg Red

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #127 on: February 12, 2018, 02:56:55 pm »

Gafford may want to play with Justice Hill (he is probably coming next year right?).  Maybe his team mate gets his medical clearance, with Hall etc.

You are right in that Gafford probably will be a slightly bigger version of himself now next year, maybe he doesn't get as many foul issues, and maybe the SEC loses some bigs that makes his life easier.

I just think he will want to play with Hall, Maybe Garland and Justice.  Pass first PG not something you see every day.

I've read that Hill might come in at mid term 2018-2019 and redshirt but not play. I haven't read of a viable scenario where he plays for the Hogs next season.
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Hawg Red

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #128 on: February 12, 2018, 02:58:28 pm »

If Gafford could do the things Portis could do, Gafford would be legit lottery pick.  The only reason you leave this year is money, but I just don't see him pushing out of the lower portion of the 1st round.  Not with so many guys at his size that are more developed.

And if Portis had the draft stock that Gafford apparently has, he'd have been drafted higher than he was.
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hawginbigd1

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #129 on: February 12, 2018, 03:04:27 pm »

Does the D-League, G-league figure into these projections somehow?

I just don't get how a 6'10" skinny kid with no handle or jumper gets projected into the Top 20ish of the draft.

I know they draft on potential, but dang it seems to me he is through a contract before he is ready to contribute at this point. It's not like he is a 7 foot eraser, he's just a nice looking under-developed big.
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niels_boar

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #130 on: February 12, 2018, 03:05:50 pm »

What kind of money is he going to be playing for at 35 years old, though? Probably the bare minimum, not late lottery/mid first round money.

He will just be shifting the exact same payments by one year if he ends up playing the exact same number of years due to mileage.  Here is a toy example:

Earnings by leaving:
Age Salary
19  5
20  7
21  10
22  15
23  20
24  20
25  15
26  10
27  7
28  5 (retires because knees are bone-on-bone after 10 82-game seasons)

= $114 million career earnings

Earnings by staying:

20  5
21  7
22  10
23  15
24  20
25  20
26  15
27  10
28  7
29  5 (retires because knees are bone-on-bone after 10 82-game seasons)

= $114 million career earnings

114 = 114.  Capiche?
« Last Edit: February 12, 2018, 03:44:36 pm by niels_boar »
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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #131 on: February 12, 2018, 03:06:34 pm »

Does the D-League, G-league figure into these projections somehow?

I just don't get how a 6'10" skinny kid with no handle or jumper gets projected into the Top 20ish of the draft.

I know they draft on potential, but dang it seems to me he is through a contract before he is ready to contribute at this point. It's not like he is a 7 foot eraser, he's just a nice looking under-developed big.

I don't either but I don't write those big checks they hand out in the NBA.
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urkillnmesmalls

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #132 on: February 12, 2018, 03:14:48 pm »

Does the D-League, G-league figure into these projections somehow?

I just don't get how a 6'10" skinny kid with no handle or jumper gets projected into the Top 20ish of the draft.

I know they draft on potential, but dang it seems to me he is through a contract before he is ready to contribute at this point. It's not like he is a 7 foot eraser, he's just a nice looking under-developed big.

It's odd right?  But...they've seen how it pans out when you take a college Sr. who is a solid player, and how that translates to the NBA...not well typically in today's landscape.  There's so much money out there, that if they think they can bring in a player that can make a difference, they will take that chance over option B...taking a good solid "college" player. 

It's gambling....pure and simple.  As fans, we try to look at production and what difference they make on the court in college, but in the NBA...it's just a different game.  The older "wily" player who gets by with experience and knowledge, despite a lack of talent...can look great in college, but be a complete failure in the NBA. 

A lot of times it doesn't make sense, and the gamble doesn't pay off.  I think the consideration here is...is it any less of a gamble for the NBA to take him now than it would be next year?  He would have to show marked improvement for them to see more potential in him that would equate to a substantial difference in $$ based on draft placement.  A year later...the "gamble" may be higher, simply because they will EXPECT development that might not come. 

That's why I think he will go...but I hope I'm wrong for selfish reasons.     
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311Hog

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #133 on: February 12, 2018, 03:15:02 pm »

Hmm that is an odd thing to say.  I mean i have seen Gafford dribble and defend a G on the perimeter he seems adequate in both of those.  I have also seen him square up and hit the jumper, he just hardly ever does it or need to.

Sure his FT isn't good but his shot is good from mid range.  I mean Antony Davis is who he "looks" like to me, before he developed the outside shot.
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zebradynasty

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #134 on: February 12, 2018, 03:16:03 pm »

Does the D-League, G-league figure into these projections somehow?

I just don't get how a 6'10" skinny kid with no handle or jumper gets projected into the Top 20ish of the draft.

I know they draft on potential, but dang it seems to me he is through a contract before he is ready to contribute at this point. It's not like he is a 7 foot eraser, he's just a nice looking under-developed big.

See most of Kentucky's Bigs drafted the last 5-6 years.
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urkillnmesmalls

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #135 on: February 12, 2018, 03:23:45 pm »

He will just be shifting the exact same payments by one year if he ends up playing the exact same number of years due to mileage.  Here is a toy example:

Earning by leaving:

19  5
20  7
21  10
22  15
23  20
24  20
25  15
26  10
27  7
28  5 (retires because knees are bone-on-bone after 10 82-game seasons)

= $114 million career earnings

Earning by staying:

20  5
21  7
22  10
23  15
24  20
25  20
26  15
27  10
28  7
29  5 (retires because knees are bone-on-bone after 10 82-game seasons)

= $114 million career earnings

114 = 114.  Capiche?

Hehe...am I missing something?  The thought process is....he stays, and that drops a year off his playing career due to wear and tear.  So...in your example B of him staying, he would retire in the same year....2028, and it would only be $109M in earnings....only able to play 9 seasons due to wear and tear from the extra year in college.  That's the argument that I guess was lost in translation somehow....

Look at it like this.  He goes through the motions without an agent.  The NBA scouts say..."Needs to gain 25 lbs minimum in muscle (which by the way, is not realistic...a solid 10 without drugs is about what the human body can do...I digress).  Need to improve FT percentage by "x" percent.  Need to develop a mid range jumper, and better yet...a threat from 3." 

He come back next year, doesn't improve on those identified weaknesses, and where does that put him?  He could easily make LESS on his first contract.  Factor in injury risk, and he could end up in the same exact place...on the D league roster, making MUCH less money...and fighting for that second contract that might never come if he DOESN'T develop like they expect. 

The more you look at it...the more it just makes sense to go if he's in the top 20.  I hate that...but with the "one and done" opportunity still in place, that's just how it is going to play out a lot of times for these top talent kids.   
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hawginbigd1

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #136 on: February 12, 2018, 03:25:21 pm »

He will just be shifting the exact same payments by one year if he ends up playing the exact same number of years due to mileage.  Here is a toy example:

Earning by leaving:

19  5
20  7
21  10
22  15
23  20
24  20
25  15
26  10
27  7
28  5 (retires because knees are bone-on-bone after 10 82-game seasons)

= $114 million career earnings

Earning by staying:

20  5
21  7
22  10
23  15
24  20
25  20
26  15
27  10
28  7
29  5 (retires because knees are bone-on-bone after 10 82-game seasons)

= $114 million career earnings

114 = 114.  Capiche?
Here is my logic for why Gafford should stay and why BP should have stayed one more year, imo moving up the draft board usually means going to a team with talent needs which means more opportunity to play. More opportunity to play leads to your overall value  being higher, so not only are you making slightly more on your first contract, but you in fact lost a year of earnings, so it takes at least that first contract to break even. The value is that the next contract would be at a higher value than what it would be if you came out a year earlier. So just using simple numbers, I am thinking BP is at an expiring contract maybe not, my thought was if he stays another year his next contract is at 2mill per at 4 years=8 mill net, v. a contract at 1 mill x 4 years =4 mill net, and so on and so forth so if he did indeed play 1 less year he would still make considerably more money.
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hawginbigd1

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #137 on: February 12, 2018, 03:27:45 pm »

See most of Kentucky's Bigs drafted the last 5-6 years.
Most of those guys showed a much better skill set than what Gafford has shown.
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zebradynasty

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #138 on: February 12, 2018, 03:39:39 pm »


Look at it like this.  He goes through the motions without an agent.  The NBA scouts say..."Needs to gain 25 lbs minimum in muscle (which by the way, is not realistic...a solid 10 without drugs is about what the human body can do...I digress). 

Any athletic trainer/nutritionist that can't deliver 10 lbs of muscle without roids in an offseason...should lose his/her license and never be around athletes again! *Assuming the athlete follows the plan.
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niels_boar

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #139 on: February 12, 2018, 03:42:02 pm »

Hehe...am I missing something?  The thought process is....he stays, and that drops a year off his playing career due to wear and tear.  So...in your example B of him staying, he would retire in the same year....2028, and it would only be $109M in earnings....only able to play 9 seasons due to wear and tear from the extra year in college.  That's the argument that I guess was lost in translation somehow....

Look at it like this.  He goes through the motions without an agent.  The NBA scouts say..."Needs to gain 25 lbs minimum in muscle (which by the way, is not realistic...a solid 10 without drugs is about what the human body can do...I digress).  Need to improve FT percentage by "x" percent.  Need to develop a mid range jumper, and better yet...a threat from 3." 

He come back next year, doesn't improve on those identified weaknesses, and where does that put him?  He could easily make LESS on his first contract.  Factor in injury risk, and he could end up in the same exact place...on the D league roster, making MUCH less money...and fighting for that second contract that might never come if he DOESN'T develop like they expect. 

The more you look at it...the more it just makes sense to go if he's in the top 20.  I hate that...but with the "one and done" opportunity still in place, that's just how it is going to play out a lot of times for these top talent kids.   

All I am saying is that number of games played may have as much to do with career length as raw age.  Having played an 82-game season at the age of 19, 28-year-old former phenom may have to retire after 820 games.  The  college season is much less taxing.  Hence, by only playing 35 games at 19 the same phenom may still be in the NBA at the age of 29.  Hence, the total length of career might possibly be 10 years whether he played an extra year of college or not.  The countdown in career length may be in games, not age. Hence, the notion that staying necessarily loses a year of salary is an assumption that may or may not be true. 

Once again, my advice to anyone who is guaranteed to go well into the first round would be to leave.  It's just that the disadvantage in one less year of career earnings by staying  isn't necessarily true.
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zebradynasty

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #140 on: February 12, 2018, 03:49:50 pm »

Most of those guys showed a much better skill set than what Gafford has shown.

Really ???  Edrice Adybayo, Skal Labissiere, Willie Cauleystein, Trey Lyles. None those guys had much offensive skills outside of alley-oops and wide open dunks. ALL were first rounders! Karl Anthony Towns was the only big taken from KY in the last several years where you could see had offensive skills.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2018, 04:32:29 pm by zebradynasty »
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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #141 on: February 12, 2018, 03:53:41 pm »

A guy like Gafford projects as a top 20ish pick because people are afraid on missing out on a guy who might become a NBA solid big for 10 years. It is like drafting a 17 yr old left handed pitcher that throws hard but has control problems. They get drafted because if you fix the flaw, you have a commodity not many have. Same with 6'10 guys with a wing span like Gafford. They just do not grow on trees.
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311Hog

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #142 on: February 12, 2018, 04:01:32 pm »

A guy like Gafford projects as a top 20ish pick because people are afraid on missing out on a guy who might become a NBA solid big for 10 years. It is like drafting a 17 yr old left handed pitcher that throws hard but has control problems. They get drafted because if you fix the flaw, you have a commodity not many have. Same with 6'10 guys with a wing span like Gafford. They just do not grow on trees.

that can run and jump like he does and doesn't have a broken shot.
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hawginbigd1

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #143 on: February 12, 2018, 04:03:48 pm »

Really ???  Edrice Adybayo, Skal Labissiere, Willie Cauleystein, Trey Lyles. None those guys had much offensive skills outside of alley-oops and wide open dunks. ALL were first rounders! Karl Anthony Towns was the only big taken from KY in the last several years where could see had offensive skills.
Adebayo and Cauley-stein are different players, and Adebayo had some refined inside game skills, Frenchy could shoot and handle, and KAT is the one that I think of first, he was definitely a Lottery guy after 2 weeks, totally different than Gafford.
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311Hog

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #144 on: February 12, 2018, 04:15:55 pm »

Adebayo and Cauley-stein are different players, and Adebayo had some refined inside game skills, Frenchy could shoot and handle, and KAT is the one that I think of first, he was definitely a Lottery guy after 2 weeks, totally different than Gafford.

i maybe crazy but to me Gafford is like Willie (if he never changes and cant develop a J) or he could be like Antony Davis if he does develop a better handle and jumper.


KAT is great i just don't put his defense and athletic ability in the same category as Willie and AD.
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LA Football fan

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #145 on: February 12, 2018, 04:18:10 pm »

that can run and jump like he does and doesn't have a broken shot.

That block and run out for a dunk is what the NBA covets in big men.  They know that they can improve his shooting by repetition but either you can run and jump or you cannot and the number of bigs out there like Daniel are few and far between.  I also doubt the NBA will have him out top guarding point guards all game either.
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zebradynasty

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #146 on: February 12, 2018, 04:31:02 pm »

Adebayo and Cauley-stein are different players, and Adebayo had some refined inside game skills, Frenchy could shoot and handle, and KAT is the one that I think of first, he was definitely a Lottery guy after 2 weeks, totally different than Gafford.

Gafford 11pts, 6.1rebs, 2.0 blocks

vs

Recent Kentucky First Rounder Bigs

Adebayo 13pts, 8rebs, 1.5 blocks
Labissiere- 6.6pts, 3.1rebs, 1.6 blocks
Lyles-8.7pts, 5.5, 0.4 blocks
Cauley-Stein- 6.8pts, 6.1rebs, 2.9 blocks*soph year

None of these KY first rounders screamed offensive fire power when they were Gafford's age.
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Paul

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #147 on: February 12, 2018, 04:31:33 pm »

Gaffords not going to regress.  He needs to improve from the FT line and develop the 8-10 foot shot around the basket.  Many games he was getting pushed around because of size.  If he goes, he will go 1st round.  Won't be lottery, but he will get picked.  I'd pick up a policy for injury and start training to become a guaranteed top 14.

And Williams stock drop was not 100% out of his control.  His suspension contributed to that as well.  Still he is projected as a lottery pick.
  ain't no guarantee:  injury, arrest, etc
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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #148 on: February 12, 2018, 04:32:12 pm »

Lots of financial experts on hogville giving free advice. Enjoy your millions gafford. Thanks for being a hog for a season
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Paul

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Re: Gafford draft projections
« Reply #149 on: February 12, 2018, 04:33:46 pm »

Most of those guys showed a much better skill set than what Gafford has shown.
  I disagree
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