Collins a First Rounder?

[Next1_04]

http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/nfl-mock-draft-2016-browns-try-again-at-qb-with-paxton-lynch-titans-grab-joey-bosa/ar-BBocugu?li=BBnb7Kz#page=9

30. Panthers: Alex Collins, RB, Arkansas
Carolina needs to find a left tackle to replace Michael Oher sometime soon, but they won't have that opportunity if they're picking this late in the first round. A defensive end to pair with Charles Johnson or finding replacements for their future expiring cornerback contracts is intriguing, but running back could be a unique yet stylistic benefit in the draft.

Jonathan Stewart recently signed a five-year deal to remain the team's feature running back, but that contract is easily cut-able after the 2017 season, and he hasn't proven a reliably healthy option. Collins paired with last year's late rounder Cameron Artis-Payne could be the duo of the future. Collins, formerly the No. 1-ranked high school running back recruit just three years ago, offers tremendous acceleration and a balance-power combo that should produce highlight break-tackle plays at the NFL level.

[King Kong]

I wouldn't take to much stock in a Mock Draft 4 months from the draft.

But it would be great for both AC and Arkansas if it happened

[navyhog24]

We can only hope. His patience, vision, ability to block, and durability will help him have a productive career. Congrats to the kid! I'll always be thankful he played for my Hogs.

[bennyl08]

I wouldn't take to much stock in a Mock Draft 4 months from the draft.

But it would be great for both AC and Arkansas if it happened

Exactly. However, they are not without any merit. It depends on who does them, but many of them are done by people who are in contact with NFL scouts and have a legitimately informed opinion. Of course, at this state in the game, the information is relatively low and lots can change. Further, perception has value in and of itself. If people perceive that you are talented, that perception will inherently bias their view of you for better or worse, but they will view you. The more people that look at you, the more your odds of somebody really liking you goes up and it only takes 1 out of 32 teams.

[AirForceHog]

heck I would go watch him in Carolina Panthers colors.

[longpig]

I'll be happy if he's one of the first five backs taken, considering the competition. Slim chance any rb will go in the first round this year.

[AirForceHog]

I think Derrick Henry goes first round easily.

[KlubhouseKonnected]

Mock drafts are click bait. Mock Drafts before the combine... Less reliable clickbait I guess. I hope Collins does well but I seriously doubt he will go round one. Teams just don't value the position that highly anymore.

[AirForceHog]

I agree. one for sure first round pick will be used on a back. Two if there is someone who impresses at the combine.

[OS2 (SW) Razor Back]

Only if McShay and Kiper says it's ok.

[Iwastherein1969]

I think Derrick Henry goes first round easily.

Derrick Henry has zero wiggle which is a must in the NFL. Alex Collins has more wiggle than Derrick Henry, Leonard Fournette and Nick Chubb combined. In the N ot F or L ong league, if you don't know how to stick your foot in the ground and make cuts you don't last long. For that reason, I think Alex will be the best of this year's crop of RB's as far as doing well in the NFL. Alex reminds me so much of Emmitt Smith. Emmitt was not that fast past an initial burst of 30 yards, but wow, could Emmitt cut on a dime. Same thing with Alex. I wish Jerry would draft Alex to backup Darren at Dallas then in a year or so when McFadden retires or moves on, Alex would have that great line to run behind. Come on Jerrah, pull the trigger and pull Alex in round II

[Cartoon Man]

AC  reminds me a little of Emmit Smith.   Hope he has the same type career.

[bennyl08]

I'll be happy if he's one of the first five backs taken, considering the competition. Slim chance any rb will go in the first round this year.

In the past 4 years, 5 rb's have been taken in the first round. That rb's can't go in the first is a myth. In that span, you have Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, David Wilson, Todd Gurley, and Melvin Gordon. 2nd rounders include Sankey, Hyde, Hill, Abdullah, Yeldon, Bernard, Bell, Ball, Lacy, Christine, Pead, and James.

[threeNout]

Derrick Henry has zero wiggle which is a must in the NFL. Alex Collins has more wiggle than Derrick Henry, Leonard Fournette and Nick Chubb combined.

exactly, the NFL isn't going to care that D. Henry was the best player on the best team in college.

everything about AC's skills scream NFL.

[ChitownHawg]

Derrick Henry has zero wiggle which is a must in the NFL. Alex Collins has more wiggle than Derrick Henry, Leonard Fournette and Nick Chubb combined. In the N ot F or L ong league, if you don't know how to stick your foot in the ground and make cuts you don't last long. For that reason, I think Alex will be the best of this year's crop of RB's as far as doing well in the NFL. Alex reminds me so much of Emmitt Smith. Emmitt was not that fast past an initial burst of 30 yards, but wow, could Emmitt cut on a dime. Same thing with Alex. I wish Jerry would draft Alex to backup Darren at Dallas then in a year or so when McFadden retires or moves on, Alex would have that great line to run behind. Come on Jerrah, pull the trigger and pull Alex in round II

On M&M they were talking about the mileage on Henry. His carries this year would have led the NFL. Because he cannot make someone miss the scouts are worried about the mileage and hits. Lacy was used as an example that when in the game he does ok. But cannot stay healthy due to the hits.

Made sense to me.

[AirForceHog]

Good points

[TNhawgfan]

I'll be happy if he's one of the first five backs taken, considering the competition. Slim chance any rb will go in the first round this year.

Someone will go RB in round 1. Next year, Fournette will be a top 12 pick

[hoglady]

On M&M they were talking about the mileage on Henry. His carries this year would have led the NFL. Because he cannot make someone miss the scouts are worried about the mileage and hits. Lacy was used as an example that when in the game he does ok. But cannot stay healthy due to the hits.

Made sense to me.

Those statements are really misleading.
He doesn't have that much mileage.
Henry had tons of carries THIS YEAR only - total carries in college is 603. That's 62 less than Alex Collins at 665.

[onebadrubi]

There will be some NFL GM that drafts off of college hype, happens every year.  No matter if henry is worthy or was overused, there will be a Gm that soaks him up. Always will be! 

Collins will need some help to get in the first round. He will have to really win over a team and GM/head coach.  We didn't see his hands out of the backfield much but if he can show good hands for hot routes and check downs carolina could be a very very good fit for him! 

[dagnamit]

NFL likes running backs that are also receivers. If AC can catch the ball out of the back field how dangerous for the defense would that be.

I always wondered why the Hogs did not do this? Maybe because he can't. Maybe because they just didn't want to do it.

[Seebs]

Bold Prediction: They will show concern  on Alex's 40 time - it will seem pedestrian. 

But they will notice that he gets to 10-15 yards faster than anybody else - his quickness is the key.  I have a love/hate relationship with the combines.

[Soooie21]

Hunter Henry may go 1st round......

[onebadrubi]

Bold Prediction: They will show concern  on Alex's 40 time - it will seem pedestrian. 

But they will notice that he gets to 10-15 yards faster than anybody else - his quickness is the key.  I have a love/hate relationship with the combines.

The ones that draft off of 40 times are the same ones that draft off of college hype.  Sometimes it can be a good thing though, I do believe Knile's 40 time got him some real money and better draft pick.  Teams that are known for drafting well will not just look at a 40 time and ding a rb for that. 

Glancing at the NFL top 10 rush leaders for this season there are as many  bigger backs that ran +4.5 at the combine than ran sub 4.45 (one of these is Deangelo williams and we know he has lost a little time).  All that considered, what it tells us is a 4.55 running back has just as good a chance to make it in the NFL as a 4.40 guy.  Is it coincident the 4.5 guys in the top 10 have all had long tenures?

Derrick Henry wont eclipse the 4.5 mark I do not believe.

[HogimusMaximus]

Bout to get paid, straight cash homie.

[k.c.hawg]

The ones that draft off of 40 times are the same ones that draft off of college hype.  Sometimes it can be a good thing though, I do believe Knile's 40 time got him some real money and better draft pick.  Teams that are known for drafting well will not just look at a 40 time and ding a rb for that. 

Glancing at the NFL top 10 rush leaders for this season there are as many  bigger backs that ran +4.5 at the combine than ran sub 4.45 (one of these is Deangelo williams and we know he has lost a little time).  All that considered, what it tells us is a 4.55 running back has just as good a chance to make it in the NFL as a 4.40 guy.  Is it coincident the 4.5 guys in the top 10 have all had long tenures?

Derrick Henry wont eclipse the 4.5 mark I do not believe.

Derek Henry's 40 is "projected" to be slower than Alex Collins.

[onebadrubi]

Derek Henry's 40 is "projected" to be slower than Alex Collins.

Correct.  The only people that will make a big deal out of Collins 40 time are just looking for something to say as to either fill air time or an interview.  Collins is fast enough to play RB.  It will not come down to his speed, it will come down to everything else in which we've seen highlighted while he was touting the rock for Arkansas, except catching out of the back field consistently.  We did not see him do it for some reason, we can speculate if that was a Collins thing, O line things, B Allen skill set, or coaches not liking those plays. 

-Speed to get to the edge
-Speed to get through a hole before it closes
-Collins blocks like a top 3 rb.
-Reads holes and defenses like a great RB
-Clean off the field and good team mate
-Can stay healthy as a feature RB
-Came from a pro style system so his education of a play call system will not be as required as spread guys. 

All things I think the good teams like to see in a recruit.  I think it will come down to who needs a RB as a top 1-2 draft pick on THEIR board. 

[KlubhouseKonnected]

In the past 4 years, 5 rb's have been taken in the first round. That rb's can't go in the first is a myth. In that span, you have Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, David Wilson, Todd Gurley, and Melvin Gordon. 2nd rounders include Sankey, Hyde, Hill, Abdullah, Yeldon, Bernard, Bell, Ball, Lacy, Christine, Pead, and James.

Who said can't? I think you just indicated that out of 32 annual first round picks there is an average of 1.25 running backs selected. That's a fairly low number by any positional standard but it is quite low in comparison to itself ten or fifteen years ago.

For a lot of reason's the predominant line of thought for NFL franchises is just that running backs are a comparatively high risk investment in the first round.

[RME]

Who said can't? I think you just indicated that out of 32 annual first round picks there is an average of 1.25 running backs selected. That's a fairly low number by any positional standard but it is quite low in comparison to itself ten or fifteen years ago.

For a lot of reason's the predominant line of thought for NFL franchises is just that running backs are a comparatively high risk investment in the first round.

Exactly. Just look at the difference between last year's two first rounders, Gurley and Gordon. Gurley ripped it up and looks to be legit. Gordon didn't do much at all. Yeldon and Abdullah, 2nd rounders, both had far better rookie seasons than Gordon. As did UDFA Thomas Rawls. It's a risky investment to take a RB that high.

I'm not saying Collins won't be an early rounder, but even if he does fall, it doesn't mean he won't be a good NFL running back. My point being, many of the solid, young backs in the league are mid to late rounders. RBs just aren't a priority anymore.

[Jackrabbit Hog]

If he goes to the combine, I'll bet his time for the shuttle drill (cutting around the cones) is off the charts.

[bphi11ips]

Probably not, but I'll bet in 10 years he'll have been worth more than 90% of the first rounders.

[onebadrubi]

Exactly. Just look at the difference between last year's two first rounders, Gurley and Gordon. Gurley ripped it up and looks to be legit. Gordon didn't do much at all. Yeldon and Abdullah, 2nd rounders, both had far better rookie seasons than Gordon. As did UDFA Thomas Rawls. It's a risky investment to take a RB that high.

I'm not saying Collins won't be an early rounder, but even if he does fall, it doesn't mean he won't be a good NFL running back. My point being, many of the solid, young backs in the league are mid to late rounders. RBs just aren't a priority anymore.

Wasn't gordon hurt a lot this year?

[RME]

Wasn't gordon hurt a lot this year?

Only missed the last 2 games of the season, played in the first 14 games. Now, whether he had a nagging injury all year that affected him may be a different story, but he played all but 2 games. Averaged 3.5 YPC and 0 rushing TD's.

[onebadrubi]

Only missed the last 2 games of the season, played in the first 14 games. Now, whether he had a nagging injury all year that affected him may be a different story, but he played all but 2 games. Averaged 3.5 YPC and 0 rushing TD's.

I can't remember, was thinking for some reason he was hurt early in the year.  Might have been someone else. 

[jackflash]

The only RB I've seen predicted to go first is Elliott from Ohio State

[RME]

I can't remember, was thinking for some reason he was hurt early in the year.  Might have been someone else.

You may be thinking of Yeldon. He missed 4 games this year but still put up pretty decent numbers for a rookie RB.

[HVHog]

Derrick Henry has zero wiggle which is a must in the NFL. Alex Collins has more wiggle than Derrick Henry, Leonard Fournette and Nick Chubb combined. In the N ot F or L ong league, if you don't know how to stick your foot in the ground and make cuts you don't last long. For that reason, I think Alex will be the best of this year's crop of RB's as far as doing well in the NFL. Alex reminds me so much of Emmitt Smith. Emmitt was not that fast past an initial burst of 30 yards, but wow, could Emmitt cut on a dime. Same thing with Alex. I wish Jerry would draft Alex to backup Darren at Dallas then in a year or so when McFadden retires or moves on, Alex would have that great line to run behind. Come on Jerrah, pull the trigger and pull Alex in round II

This + 1

[k.c.hawg]

Henry has been getting a 3rd round grade from many scouts. Several I've seen quoted as having him for pick 90-100 I still think some idiot will overdraft and pull the trigger somewhere between 30 and 60.

As for Alex I think his biggest thing to prove at the combine is that he has good hands and looks comfortable catching the ball. If I'm his agent I've got him working non stop on running routes and catching the ball up until the combine and training him on running an efficient 40 just to make sure he doesn't run much worse than he actually is. He will be fine and if things go good I could see him going late 2nd. If things go bad and running backs fall I could see him going early 4th.

[bennyl08]

Who said can't? I think you just indicated that out of 32 annual first round picks there is an average of 1.25 running backs selected. That's a fairly low number by any positional standard but it is quite low in comparison to itself ten or fifteen years ago.

For a lot of reason's the predominant line of thought for NFL franchises is just that running backs are a comparatively high risk investment in the first round.

It was said that it is unlikely for any back to be in the first round. In fact, it is likely that at least one will be taken.

I included the names to show what kind of a resume leads to a first vs a second round pick. I'll be quite surprised if Elliot isn't a first round and Henry is on the verge of being first himself. Collins is close to Henry so it is possible that a team in dire need will reach and take him in the first instead of Henry. However, I think Collins is a likely second rounder.

[Paul]

Henry has been getting a 3rd round grade from many scouts. Several I've seen quoted as having him for pick 90-100 I still think some idiot will overdraft and pull the trigger somewhere between 30 and 60.

As for Alex I think his biggest thing to prove at the combine is that he has good hands and looks comfortable catching the ball. If I'm his agent I've got him working non stop on running routes and catching the ball up until the combine and training him on running an efficient 40 just to make sure he doesn't run much worse than he actually is. He will be fine and if things go good I could see him going late 2nd. If things go bad and running backs fall I could see him going early 4th.

Henry is a lot like Lacy in that he has to build momentum before hitting the hole.  Aside from the 50 yd run where he was untouched, Clemson did a great job of hitting him in the backfield or close to the line of scrimmage.  IMO,AC has an advantage over DK in this area.

[PorkSoda]

Exactly. However, they are not without any merit. It depends on who does them, but many of them are done by people who are in contact with NFL scouts and have a legitimately informed opinion. Of course, at this state in the game, the information is relatively low and lots can change. Further, perception has value in and of itself. If people perceive that you are talented, that perception will inherently bias their view of you for better or worse, but they will view you. The more people that look at you, the more your odds of somebody really liking you goes up and it only takes 1 out of 32 teams.

no doubt,  the point isnt whether they get every pick of the first round correct, the point is that people are starting to realize that AC has first round talent. 

[PorkSoda]

If he goes to the combine, I'll bet his time for the shuttle drill (cutting around the cones) is off the charts.

maybe, but I expect collins of have a fairly average combine.  he is not exceptionally big, strong, or fast, but he has the immeasurables like vision, short quick cuts and is a very competent pass blocker.

[KlubhouseKonnected]

Wasn't gordon hurt a lot this year?

Running backs in general take a lot of punishment, than in itself lowers the overall draft stock of the position. Like Benny pointed out lots of very talented backs are selected mid round or deeper, not because their so much less talented in general compared to players at other positions selected earlier but based on risk of investment. The fact that so many undrafted running back free agents have come in and been productive is sort of a dual by-product of this and also a factor in stock devaluation.

[Jackrabbit Hog]

Henry is a lot like Lacy in that he has to build momentum before hitting the hole.  Aside from the 50 yd run where he was untouched, Clemson did a great job of hitting him in the backfield or close to the line of scrimmage.  IMO,AC has an advantage over DK in this area.

I heard McShay on the radio the other day saying he could see Henry being a very average NFL back if he goes to the wrong team, and a very good back if he goes to the right team.  He went on to explain that a team with a line that base blocks and tries to overpower a D-Line would be a great fit for Henry since he doesn't "make his own holes" but can often go the distance if there is a hole.  Kind of reminded me of the conversations many of us have been having about DMac now that he's in Dallas instead of Oakland.

Which reminds me, I was traveling Monday night so I didn't get to watch the first half of the NC game; instead I listened to Mike Tirico and Todd Blackledge call the game on the radio.  Tirico and Blackledge were talking about being on the field before the game and being awed by what a physical specimen Henry is.  Blackledge said, "yeah, the guy that came to mind that I last was so impressed with his sheer physical build was Darren McFadden."

[code red]

Ha ha.......love it.  He will be no later than 2nd.  But according to most around here....a week ago.  He was a 4th rounder. 

[code red]

Only if McShay and Kiper says it's ok.

They have missed on plenty...but, I do love listening to them.

[code red]

I think Derrick Henry goes first round easily.

I agree but, the knock on Henry is going to be speed.  He also has a slow first step...and....he is a big target.

[bennyl08]

maybe, but I expect collins of have a fairly average combine.  he is not exceptionally big, strong, or fast, but he has the immeasurables like vision, short quick cuts and is a very competent pass blocker.

That's what the 3-cone measures essentially, that and the 20-yard shuttle. How well you can change direction without losing speed. 3-cone is essentially a continuous direction changing run so if you have tight hips, it easily shows. 20 yard gives you how well a player can start, stop and change directions, and start again.

Combined with the 40 yard dash, it gives you a good clue on players that are straight line fast but not very fluid vs players who are really quick but not necessarily fast.

[PorkSoda]

That's what the 3-cone measures essentially, that and the 20-yard shuttle. How well you can change direction without losing speed. 3-cone is essentially a continuous direction changing run so if you have tight hips, it easily shows. 20 yard gives you how well a player can start, stop and change directions, and start again.

Combined with the 40 yard dash, it gives you a good clue on players that are straight line fast but not very fluid vs players who are really quick but not necessarily fast.

and I get that, but it cant replicate real game situations.  my point is, that I don't think he will have the highest on the bench press or the highest on the 40, and like you said, he should do well on the shuttle etc.  but there is more to his skill set than what these drills can show.

[KlubhouseKonnected]

I heard McShay on the radio the other day saying he could see Henry being a very average NFL back if he goes to the wrong team, and a very good back if he goes to the right team.   

The same could be said for a lot of skill position players every year.

[Hogarusa]

Carolina has no need for a RB in round 1.  they are pretty comfortable there, especially considering their QB ran for 600+ yards and 10 TD