Ethan Henderson Dropping In Rankings

[NWAHog479]

Ethan Henderson at one point in time was ranked the #51 player in the 2018 class, now he is at #116. Does anybody that has watched him play know why this might be? The highlights that I have seen from this summer have looked pretty promising.

[Kevin McPherson]

Ethan Henderson at one point in time was ranked the #51 player in the 2018 class, now he is at #116. Does anybody that has watched him play know why this might be? The highlights that I have seen from this summer have looked pretty promising.

Lack of playing time and production at Parkview, inconsistency in motor and production during the two Adidas Gauntlet sessions, and limited skill. The avg. ranking of the 4 major services -- Ethan is No. 50 on 247, 80 on Rivals, 100-110 on Scout, and Top 125 on ESPN -- would still be in the Top 100 (around No. 91), but for some reason the composite ranking has him at No. 116 ... still a 4-star recruit, BUT outside the Top 100.

Highlights are good because they are, well, the highlights.

Ethan, IMO, belongs in the Top 50-75 range. He's not as skilled as many of today's 4s, but he's still a big-impact asset with a high ceiling when his motor is running full-bore and he's not in foul trouble. In the 4 Adidas Gauntlet series games that the ARHawks won, Ethan averaged more than 10 pts and 7 rebs. In their 4 losses, it was a lot less than that and in those games he picked up early fouls and struggled to play aggressively when he was on the floor.

I'm encouraged by the fact he put up double-doubles against some of the Hawks' toughest opponents, such as previously ranked Macus Smart YGC36 and current No. 11 Team Thad (he had 15 pts, 13 rebs in that game). Another point of encouragement is that I have personally seen Ethan improve his footwork inside, his mid-range shot (footwork, release, posture), and his pro-activity and re-activity on defense -- all from April to May.

He also played well enough at Pangos AA Camp 2 weeks ago (121 of the best from '18, '19, plus six from the '20 class) to make the Top 60 Cream of the Crop game, and he led his team in scoring there with 14 points. One hoops analyst covering the entire Pangos event ranked Ethan in the Top 50 players at the camp (No. 44).

Again, ball skill and face-up game are behind others, and production doesn't look Top 100 at times due to lack of consistent motor. Where I think he really needs growth is learning to play with that high motor consistently. When he fouls or makes a mistake, he tends to let up. He sometimes gets flat-footed and ball-watches instead of playing the game.

I think these are things he will continue to improve on, I think he's a great fit athletically for the Hogs' system, and I'm not concerned about recruiting rankings so much with him because I believe in about 3 years we are going to see CMA and staff help this young man develop into a solid college basketball player.

[daprospecta]

Lack of playing time and production at Parkview, inconsistency in motor and production during the two Adidas Gauntlet sessions, and limited skill. The avg. ranking of the 4 major servies -- Ethan is No. 50 on 247, 80 on Rivals, 100-110 on Scout, and Top 125 on ESPN -- would still be in the Top 100 (around No. 91), but for some reason the composite ranking has him at No. 116 ... still a 4-star recruit, BUT outside the Top 100.

Highlights are good because they are, well, the highlights.

Ethan, IMO, belongs in the Top 50-75 range. He's not as skilled as many of today's 4s, but he's still a big-impact asset with a high ceiling when his motor is running full-bore and he's not in foul trouble. In the 4 Addidas Guantlet series games that the ARHawks won, Ethan averaged more than 10 pts and 7 rebs. In their 4 losses, it was a lot less than that and in those games he picked up early fouls and struggled to play aggressively when he was on the floor.

I'm enocuraged by the fact he put up double-doubles against some of the Hawks' toughest opponents, such as previously ranked Macus Smart YGC36 and current No. 11 Team Thad (he had 15 pts, 13 rebs in that game). Another point of encouragement is that I have personally seen Ethan improve his footwork inside, his mid-range shot (footwork, release, posture), and his pro-activity and re-activity on defense -- all from April to May.

He also played well enough at Pangos AA Camp 2 weeks ago (121 of the best from '18, '19, plus six from the '20 class) to make the Top 60 Cream of the Crop game, and he led his team in scoring there with 14 points. One hoops analyst covering the entire Pangos event ranked Ethan in the Top 50 players at the camp (No. 44).

Again, ball skill and face-up game are behind others, and production doesn't look Top 100 at times due to lack of consistent motor. Where I think he really needs growth is learning to play with that high motor consistently. When he fouls or makes a mistake, he tends to let up. He sometimes gets flat-footed and ball-watches instead of playing the game.

I think these are things he will continue to improve on, I think he's a great fit athletically for the Hogs' system, and I'm not concerned about recruiting rankings so much with him because I believe in about 3 years we are going to see CMA and staff help this young man develop into a solid college basketball player.

You are a treasure to jump ball sir.

[HogFoo]

Lack of playing time and production at Parkview, inconsistency in motor and production during the two Adidas Gauntlet sessions, and limited skill. The avg. ranking of the 4 major servies -- Ethan is No. 50 on 247, 80 on Rivals, 100-110 on Scout, and Top 125 on ESPN -- would still be in the Top 100 (around No. 91), but for some reason the composite ranking has him at No. 116 ... still a 4-star recruit, BUT outside the Top 100.

Highlights are good because they are, well, the highlights.

Ethan, IMO, belongs in the Top 50-75 range. He's not as skilled as many of today's 4s, but he's still a big-impact asset with a high ceiling when his motor is running full-bore and he's not in foul trouble. In the 4 Addidas Guantlet series games that the ARHawks won, Ethan averaged more than 10 pts and 7 rebs. In their 4 losses, it was a lot less than that and in those games he picked up early fouls and struggled to play aggressively when he was on the floor.

I'm enocuraged by the fact he put up double-doubles against some of the Hawks' toughest opponents, such as previously ranked Macus Smart YGC36 and current No. 11 Team Thad (he had 15 pts, 13 rebs in that game). Another point of encouragement is that I have personally seen Ethan improve his footwork inside, his mid-range shot (footwork, release, posture), and his pro-activity and re-activity on defense -- all from April to May.

He also played well enough at Pangos AA Camp 2 weeks ago (121 of the best from '18, '19, plus six from the '20 class) to make the Top 60 Cream of the Crop game, and he led his team in scoring there with 14 points. One hoops analyst covering the entire Pangos event ranked Ethan in the Top 50 players at the camp (No. 44).

Again, ball skill and face-up game are behind others, and production doesn't look Top 100 at times due to lack of consistent motor. Where I think he really needs growth is learning to play with that high motor consistently. When he fouls or makes a mistake, he tends to let up. He sometimes gets flat-footed and ball-watches instead of playing the game.

I think these are things he will continue to improve on, I think he's a great fit athletically for the Hogs' system, and I'm not concerned about recruiting rankings so much with him because I believe in about 3 years we are going to see CMA and staff help this young man develop into a solid college basketball player.

I'm am glad he is a hog.  We know what he can do. Let others go by his 'drop'  haha... that way they'll leave our recruits alone.  I think once he gets to the hill he will be fine.  Mike will jumpstart that motor of his whether he likes it or not.  haha    Thanks for your reports.  Every cool to get in depth knowledge like you have been providing.

[orgkeith]

Saw that Team Thad game.  In that game Henderson looked like the Hawks best player.  Hawks lost that game because of injuries to Sills and Hill.  Joe and J T Smith couldn't get the ball up court.

[Kevin McPherson]

Saw that Team Thad game.  In that game Henderson looked like the Hawks best player.  Hawks lost that game because of injuries to Sills and Hill.  Joe and J T Smith couldn't get the ball up court.

Agreed. Team Thad has Jevian Fleming, a highly regarded/highly recruited 6-9 PF/C, and Ethan did more than hold his own.

[AlmaHog2011]

Basketball info on this site is the best!

[Kevin McPherson]

ESPN just updated / expanded (from 60 to 100 players) it's Class of 2018 rankings ... Ethan Henderson comes in at No. 88, a 4-star. So, he's No. 50 according to 247Sports, No. 80 according to Rivals, No. 88 according to ESPN, and just outside of Scout's Top 100 as 1 of its 17 4-stars not ranked -- so effectively no worse than 117th on Scout.

That works out to an average ranking of No. 84. I don't think that's way off, either. Consistency -- keeping that motor running high -- has been Ethan's biggest hurdle. Sometimes he looks like a Top 25-50 guy, other times he looks like to be Top 75-100. As a result, I sorta always think of him as somewhere in the middle (Top 50-75ish) ... so, an average ranking at No. 84 is maybe a smidge outside of where I believe he should be, but still fair.

[NWAHog479]

At number 84 I will gladly take that, top 100 player. Can't wait to get him on the Hill and have Mike develop the young man. Kevin, great insights my friend cream of the crop when it comes to Hog recruiting!

[Kevin McPherson]

https://twitter.com/Ben_CreightonTV/status/877003049432207360

[poloprince]

There is nothing to worry about with Ethan, he will be a good 4 year player.

[FineAsSwine]

There is nothing to worry about with Ethan, he will be a good 4 year player.

Agreed. I am excited to have him aboard.

[Letsroll1200]

There is nothing to worry about with Ethan, he will be a good 4 year player.

This is Henderson. Solid 4 year player

[RazorAg]

We should expect Ethan to drop in 247's full-class update. He probably end up a top 150 guy, which I think is fair based on what I've seen the last twelve months. Two years ago, he was ahead of a lot of players due to his size and athleticism. But, his skill level hasn't increased significantly and his engagement hasn't been consistent.

Still, he's valuable, especially in a system like ours. Ceiling is still high.

[mizzouman]

Who cares about the kid's ranking?  All players are who they are.  He will either prove or not prove it on the court.  That's the bottom line.  Don't worry so much about rankings.  Yeah, it's fun, but at the end of the day, it doesn't matter.

[ShadowHawg]

Who cares about the kid's ranking?  All players are who they are.  He will either prove or not prove it on the court.  That's the bottom line.  Don't worry so much about rankings.  Yeah, it's fun, but at the end of the day, it doesn't matter.

You are right.

Outside of the first 30 or so kids, the next 100 don't have enough separation between them in potential to really matter that much.

[Kevin McPherson]

According to 247Sports, Ethan's composite national ranking (an aggregate of the 4 major recruiting services) has moved up again, to No. 76. This is more in line with that Top 50-75 where I believe Ethan belongs.

[NWAHog479]

According to 247Sports, Ethan's composite national ranking (an aggregate of the 4 major recruiting services) has moved up again, to No. 76. This is more in line with that Top 50-75 where I believe Ethan belongs.

Good to hear! Crazy how it can be a back & forth game with the rankings

[RazorAg]

According to 247Sports, Ethan's composite national ranking (an aggregate of the 4 major recruiting services) has moved up again, to No. 76. This is more in line with that Top 50-75 where I believe Ethan belongs.

Now, #92

[FineAsSwine]

Tracking Ethan's recruiting ranking is starting to look like following stock market indexes.

All I know is that he looks like a good fit for what CMA wants to do. He is top 150 for sure and with his length and athleticism, he has a chance to make an early impact on the court.

[pigsooie1000]

Tracking Ethan's recruiting ranking is starting to look like following stock market indexes.

All I know is that he looks like a good fit for what CMA wants to do. He is top 150 for sure and with his length and athleticism, he has a chance to make an early impact on the court.

people expecting a quick impact I think are kind of looking at things with rose colored glasses. the guy doesn't really make an impact at Parkview, he didn't see court in state title game even after a starter fouled out. if he can't see court at Parkview, expecting big impact at Arkansas seems like a lot

[Hawg Red]

people expecting a quick impact I think are kind of looking at things with rose colored glasses. the guy doesn't really make an impact at Parkview, he didn't see court in state title game even after a starter fouled out. if he can't see court at Parkview, expecting big impact at Arkansas seems like a lot

Then what stock do you put into the obvious impact he's making on the AAU circuit against better competition than he's going to see at Parkview?

It's my opinion that AAU performance > high school performance. It gives you a better idea how he will stack up against the kinds of players he'll see in college. Some kids, for whatever reason, just aren't motivated by high school competition.

[Kevin McPherson]

https://twitter.com/ARHoopScoop/status/888150170675707904

https://twitter.com/MakePlayz_com/status/888111672006541313

[NWAHog479]

Ethan has had a solid summer, like seeing the improvement. Saw one of his recent clips on Twitter of him taking off a little after the free throw line. Serious hops.

[Hawg Red]

He's not the project some are touting him to be.

[Youngsta71701]

He's not the project some are touting him to be.

Is he still a project or is he close to being seasoned?

[azhog10]

He's not the project some are touting him to be.

If he could figure out how not to disappear offensively he's going to be big time. His athleticism is as good as it gets, he just needs to continue to be more aggressive and more active. He is slowly developing the tools needed to be more than just an adequate high major player.

[niels_boar]

I've never seen Henderson play except highlights, but he's still ranked higher than Steere by both ESPN and 247.  This board would have done a collective back flip if Steere had signed.  Of course, Steere must be better. He's out of state!  I know one thing from the highlights. If you have a kid that long and that athletic before his senior year of high school, you get him on campus and count yourself fortunate.

[Kevin McPherson]

* Ethan's rankings are interesting. ESPN has him at No. 87 (4-star); 247Sports at No. 97 (4-star); Scout at No. 101 (4-star); and Rivals at No. 109 (4-star) ... so the avg ranking is No. 98.5 (4-star), but the composite nat'l ranking (an aggregate of the 4 major services, not an average) is No. 112 (4-star). Hmmm ...

* Isaiah Joe is No. 91 (4-star) according to 247Sports; No. 123 (3-star) according to Rivals; No. 143 (4-star) according to Scout; and somewhere outside the Top 100 but a 3-star according to ESPN. His avg ranking is No. 119, but the composite is No. 150.

* Desi Sills is No. 168 (3-star) according to Scout; No. 237 (3-star) according to 247Sports; and he's not ranked by Rivals or ESPN. Composite at No. 272.

* Hogs drop from No. 5 to No. 10 in the composite nat'l team rankings for 2018.

[Kevin McPherson]

I typically prefer the composite national rankings that 247Sports publishes, because as we've talked about before, it's an aggregate ranking of the 4 major services -- ESPN, 247Sports, Scout, and Rivals. Ranking players is not an exact science, it's subjective, and it becomes increasingly difficult to do once you get past the Top 20 or so players. Having said all that, I think the recent c/o 2018 update by Scout.com that dropped Ethan Henderson to No. 246 is CRAZY. And all it takes is one extreme outlier to skew the composite rankings.

ESPN just updated its Top 100, and Ethan held at No. 88 (a 4-star). He's No. 98 (a 4-star) according to 247Sports, No. 109  (a 4-star) according to Rivals ... again, Scout dropped him all the way down to No. 246 (a 3-star), which pulled his composite down to No. 134 (a 3-star).

Then, looking at other national services, Ethan comes in at No. 43 / 4* (HoopSeen), No. 82 / 4* (Future 150), and No. 108 / 4* (Endless Motor Sports).

So, if you discard the extreme outlier (Scout), and add up the rankings of the 6 other national services that I detailed above, the average ranking comes out to No. 88, which mirrors ESPN's latest ranking of No. 88 for Ethan.

For these reasons, I will continue to refer to Ethan as a Top 100 player and ignore the composite ranking.

[RazorAg]

I typically prefer the composite national rankings that 247Sports publishes, because as we've talked about before, it's an aggregate ranking of the 4 major services -- ESPN, 247Sports, Scout, and Rivals. Ranking players is not an exact science, it's subjective, and it becomes increasingly difficult to do once you get past the Top 20 or so players. Having said all that, I think the recent c/o 2018 update by Scout.com that dropped Ethan Henderson to No. 246 is CRAZY. And all it takes is one extreme outlier to skew the composite rankings.

ESPN just updated its Top 100, and Ethan held at No. 88 (a 4-star). He's No. 98 (a 4-star) according to 247Sports, No. 109  (a 4-star) according to Rivals ... again, Scout dropped him all the way down to No. 246 (a 3-star), which pulled his composite down to No. 134 (a 3-star).

Then, looking at other national services, Ethan comes in at No. 43 / 4* (HoopSeen), No. 82 / 4* (Future 150), and No. 108 / 4* (Endless Motor Sports).

So, if you discard the extreme outlier (Scout), and add up the rankings of the 6 other national services that I detailed above, the average ranking comes out to No. 88, which mirrors ESPN's latest ranking of No. 88 for Ethan.

For these reasons, I will continue to refer to Ethan as a Top 100 player and ignore the composite ranking.

If you didn't see it, Evan Daniels said that they only numerically ranked the top 100, and that any player ranked beyond that will "lose" the ranking number beside them soon, as the transition to the 247 platform completes.

[azhog10]

Ethan has a chance to be better than Reggie Perry. Reggie has better overall basketball skills at this point. But the things you can't coach all swing in favor of Ethan. I hope he's able to grow his game this year as Parkview will have to rely on him more with certain guys leaving their program. Could be really good for Ethan if Flanagan uses him. I sure hope he does.

[NWAHog479]

I'm right there with you Kevin, no way should Henderson be out of the top 100 or anywhere near #246!

[Kevin McPherson]

If you didn't see it, Evan Daniels said that they only numerically ranked the top 100, and that any player ranked beyond that will "lose" the ranking number beside them soon, as the transition to the 247 platform completes.

We'll see how that affects his composite, but my guess is he'll still fall outside the Top 100 because of Scout's outlier rating of 3-star status. The 3 other major services (ESPN, Rivals, and 247Sports) all rate him a 4-star, as do national services Future150, HoopSeen, and Endless Motor Sports.

Scout will still be the outlier here, and that has potential to skew the composite ranking and composite star-status even after that ridiculous numeric ranking goes away. 

[niels_boar]

I typically prefer the composite national rankings that 247Sports publishes, because as we've talked about before, it's an aggregate ranking of the 4 major services -- ESPN, 247Sports, Scout, and Rivals. Ranking players is not an exact science, it's subjective, and it becomes increasingly difficult to do once you get past the Top 20 or so players. Having said all that, I think the recent c/o 2018 update by Scout.com that dropped Ethan Henderson to No. 246 is CRAZY. And all it takes is one extreme outlier to skew the composite rankings.

ESPN just updated its Top 100, and Ethan held at No. 88 (a 4-star). He's No. 98 (a 4-star) according to 247Sports, No. 109  (a 4-star) according to Rivals ... again, Scout dropped him all the way down to No. 246 (a 3-star), which pulled his composite down to No. 134 (a 3-star).

Then, looking at other national services, Ethan comes in at No. 43 / 4* (HoopSeen), No. 82 / 4* (Future 150), and No. 108 / 4* (Endless Motor Sports).

So, if you discard the extreme outlier (Scout), and add up the rankings of the 6 other national services that I detailed above, the average ranking comes out to No. 88, which mirrors ESPN's latest ranking of No. 88 for Ethan.

For these reasons, I will continue to refer to Ethan as a Top 100 player and ignore the composite ranking.

When I look at data, I more often than not find the median to be more predictive and useful than the mean.  It's less sensitive to outliers.

43
82
88
98 <- median
108
109
246

The densest cluster of his rankings is definitely centered around the mid-90's.  Considering that he is a player that is considered to have a lot of growth potential in his game, I think it goes without saying that we should be overjoyed that he is a Hog.  If he were not signed and hailed from, say, New York, I bet there would be a lot of ecstatic cheers if he did sign with us.

[mhuff]

Scout is obviously very discombobulated .