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Author Topic: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016  (Read 1257 times)

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bennyl08

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Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« on: April 17, 2017, 09:23:44 pm »

There's been some debate on Greenlaw's importance to the defense. I'd like to open with the obvious limitations of what I'm about to do. Namely, the box score does not tell the whole story. A team could register zero sacks and still get immense and game changing pressure on the qb. An OL can allow 8 sacks on the season (i.e. 2013) and give up a ton of pressure on the qb, but the qb will throw the ball into the stands rather than take the sack. The best cornerback is often the one with the fewest stats because the ball isn't thrown their way. DT's are often limited in the box score even if they are the ones making the plays and others just clean up, the cleaning up is what gets tallied.

Having said that, lets move on to games with and without. Which brings us to another caveat, quality of the games. All 3 non p-5 games came when Greenlaw played which really distorts things. So, I'll look at the total differences and the p-5 differences with and without Greenlaw. Another confounding factor could be the offensive potency of the teams played. For that, I call upon the likes of musk, biggus, factchecker, etc... to help me out there. I.e. how our defense did compared to the teams season average or something of the sort. How many big play (30+) yards allowed with vs with, etc...

Rushing: We allowed 177 ypg in games where Greenlaw was starting for us (246 ypg vs power 5 opponents) and 5.3 ypc with Greenlaw (6.7 p5) and 2.3 td/game (3.5). Without (all power 5 and all sec games fwiw), 188.5 ypg, 5.2 ypc, 3.66 td/game.

Passing: 221.6 ypg (274.5 p5), 9.95 ypc (13.4 ypc), 60.4% completion (62.6%), 1 int/game (0.75 int/game), 1 td/game (1.75 td/game) with Greenlaw. Without: 220.7 ypg, 14.2 ypc, 57% completion, 0.5 int/game, 0.667 td'game.

Defensive plays: 66.3 total tackles (68.75) * and this is including assisted tackles incorporated as per the official stat policy musk, 31.7 unassisted tackles (23), 5.9 tfl (5.5), 2.4 sacks (2.0), 1.3 ff's (1.5), 1.1 fr's (1.5), 1 int (0.75), 3.7 pbu's (4.25), 1.4 qbh's (1.0 qbh's) with Greenlaw. Without: 63.667 total tackles, 32.3 unassisted, 3.0 tfl, 1.0 sacks, 0.8 ff's, 0.5 fr's, 0.5 int's, 3.8 pbu's, 2.83 qbh's.

Verdict: Comparing only the power 5 stats accumulated, the team allowed about 60 fewer rushing yards per game, basically the same ypc, but gave up 1.3 more td's on the ground without Greenlaw than with. Teams rushed for more yards with Greenlaw in the game, he had basically no impact on ypc, but td's were much easier to come by without him. We gave up about 55 more passing yards with GL in the game, but almost a full yard less per completion though about 3.5% more completions. We had 0.25 more interceptions per game with him than without, but gave up over a full td more per game in the passing game with him than without. Cumulative, we gave up 111 more P5 yards per game with him in the lineup than without and averaged 1 more td with him in the lineup than without.

Our defense made 3 more tackles with him than without and 1 fewer unassisted tackle. Whether that's a positive or a negative I'm not sure. What is very positive is that even when accounting for only p5 schools, our defense made 2.5 more tfl's per game with him than without, 1.4 sacks, 0.7 more ff's, 0.25 more fr's and int's, pbu's were basically the same, but 1.8 fewer qbh's. IN p5 games, we were 1-3 with him as a starter and 3-3 without.

We gave up over 100 more yards and an extra td more against p5 teams with him, but that included Bama with a pretty high power offense, aTm with a high powered offense, TCU, and VT. The games without include the game against UF with a disastrous offense. So, while I tried to make it more fair by only comparing p5 schools, do not that it isn't a perfectly normalized comparison. While Greenlaw himself is not a key contributor in making big impact plays for the defense (tfl's, sacks, pbu's, qbh's, int's, forced and recovered fumbles), from the stats, he appears to really free up other players to make those plays as almost all of those impact plays per game dropped and quite significantly without him in the lineup. Of not is that qbh's greatly increased. Meaning, we were able to get more pressure on the qb without him in the game, but were less likely to actually make the sack.

Honestly, I'm quite surprised at the polarized results and was really hoping to see a clearer picture. My best guess for an explanation has less to do with Greenlaw himself and more to do with the scheme as a whole. Our defense was clearly more aggressive in the games where Greenlaw started, but they gave up a lot more yards and td's. Thus, perhaps they decided to play more conservative on defense, explaining the fewer impact type plays, but also fewer td's and yards.

*** In looking at the game by game stats, a key stat really jumped off the page that isn't Greenlaw related and needs to be told. Regardless of where you stand in the Great Tackle Counting Debate, Mizzou really jumped out as an anomaly. In that game, we had only 41 total tackles. That is really low to begin with. Missouri had 56 combined pass and rush attempts. Meaning that on 15 of those, no tackle was counted. But what was really, really weird, there were only 4 assisted tackles counted in the entire game (or for musk, there were only 2 assisted tackles :) ). To me, that suggests that their offense was excellent at really spreading our defense out and forcing them to make one on one tackles. The florida game had the 2nd fewest assisted tackles with 22, but that made up half the total tackles (Florida's offense wasn't on the field much) compared to literally <1/10th of the total tackles for the mizzou game (~1/10th for musk). Florida has 43 total tackles on 51 combined rush/pass attempts compared to the 41/56 seen for Mizzou. Mizzou really struggled offensively in the first half, but completed a lot of deep passes in the 2nd as I remember. However, 4 total assisted tackles is just mind boggling. Our defense was not able to gang tackle at all that game apparently.
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greenie

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #1 on: April 17, 2017, 09:36:36 pm »

A great example of why I enjoy Hogville.  People putting great effort into analyses and posts well beyond my ability (and availability) to match.  A good read. Thanks, benny.
I hope Greenlaw is All SEC this year, but I feel we're in better shape with LB depth at this point. Very anxious to see how the D looks this year with more LBs and fewer DLs on the field.
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bennyl08

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #2 on: April 17, 2017, 09:55:17 pm »

A great example of why I enjoy Hogville.  People putting great effort into analyses and posts well beyond my ability (and availability) to match.  A good read. Thanks, benny.
I hope Greenlaw is All SEC this year, but I feel we're in better shape with LB depth at this point. Very anxious to see how the D looks this year with more LBs and fewer DLs on the field.

I was incredibly worried about that last part when the switch was first talked about. However, a lot of our DL players were tweeners. Taylor and Ramsey were really on the small side for a DE. Agim, Smith, and Dean were size wise inbetween DE and DT. We would be in a really awkward position in 2017 with a base 4-3. Further, 2016 signed the best LB class that I have ever seen as a razorback fan. Headlined by Harris, but including the likes of AJB and LaFrance who I think are all SEC starter quality along with Walker who provides good depth for us IMO.

Now, we've historically done a lot, lot better recruiting on the DL than LB, so I still have hesitations about our future with a 3-4. However, for the next 2 years, I think our pieces fit together nicely in the 3-4 and the biggest questions will be how well CPR schemes in the 3-4 and how well our players can mentally handle the complexities without it slowing down their play.
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bennyl08

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #3 on: April 17, 2017, 09:56:54 pm »

Also, I appreciate the compliment on the post. Sadly, in my experience, a thread on the GSD or what Petrino is up to will go 6-10 pages or so while something like this will get 10-15 comments and fade off into obscurity. It's a lot easier and faster to post emotions than facts.
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greenie

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #4 on: April 17, 2017, 10:45:56 pm »

Also, I appreciate the compliment on the post. Sadly, in my experience, a thread on the GSD or what Petrino is up to will go 6-10 pages or so while something like this will get 10-15 comments and fade off into obscurity. It's a lot easier and faster to post emotions than facts.

I'm primarily a reader, and have been for several years. I pretty much know who I like to read, who to ignore, who has an agenda, who likes to be the first with info, who not to engage, and even the political leanings of the eighty-percenters (the small number of posters responsible for most of the posts). I think there are lots of people on HV like me.  I don't always agree with your opinions, but you definitely make an effort to contribute. Keep it up.
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lasthog

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #5 on: April 17, 2017, 10:49:56 pm »

Benny, I appreciate this post and the many other informative posts of yours.

However, I am sure you are right in not expecting many responses due to the fact that this post contains none of the hot words, controversial subjects, insults, names, or coach/player bashing.

Sorta like David Allan Coe said why the first version of "You Never Even Called Me By My Name" wasn't the perfect country song: The author hadn't mentioned Mama, trains, prison or getting drunk. ;)

 
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Iwastherein1969

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #6 on: April 18, 2017, 01:53:19 am »

all those stats only serve to baffle me with BS...we are changing defensive schemes from last year, we will have a different DC and will be playing USC jr on the road instead of UF at home this coming season....Greenlaw is a good player, not a difference maker but a player who will do his job efficiently....the most important position in a 3-4 is the nose guard and does he have the ability to occupy two O linemen...it won't matter how good or bad the LB's are this year unless the OL can occupy blocks allowing the LB's to get penetration and make tackles...the most important player on our defense will be #3...if he progresses as we all hope he does he will be unstoppable by the opposing O line...anyway, all of those stats were based on a different defensive scheme and although was a well thought out and presented opinion on Dre Greenlaw's 2016 season, I see little value in what Greenlaw did in a totally different defense...however, we need him to play well, but he doesn't need to be super man, just play solid defense and don't miss tackles...our defense must tackle well...watch the Tide's defense, rarely (except against Clemson) did they miss tackles, the majority of the tackles the Tide makes are made by the first defender on the scene....to make things simple, that's what our defense needs to do, the first man needs to wrap up or at least find a body part and hang on for dear life
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bennyl08

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #7 on: April 18, 2017, 02:23:03 am »

all those stats only serve to baffle me with BS...we are changing defensive schemes from last year, we will have a different DC and will be playing USC jr on the road instead of UF at home this coming season....Greenlaw is a good player, not a difference maker but a player who will do his job efficiently....the most important position in a 3-4 is the nose guard and does he have the ability to occupy two O linemen...it won't matter how good or bad the LB's are this year unless the OL can occupy blocks allowing the LB's to get penetration and make tackles...the most important player on our defense will be #3...if he progresses as we all hope he does he will be unstoppable by the opposing O line...anyway, all of those stats were based on a different defensive scheme and although was a well thought out and presented opinion on Dre Greenlaw's 2016 season, I see little value in what Greenlaw did in a totally different defense...however, we need him to play well, but he doesn't need to be super man, just play solid defense and don't miss tackles...our defense must tackle well...watch the Tide's defense, rarely (except against Clemson) did they miss tackles, the majority of the tackles the Tide makes are made by the first defender on the scene....to make things simple, that's what our defense needs to do, the first man needs to wrap up or at least find a body part and hang on for dear life

Baffle you with BS? For a post that is basically just stats and no interjected opinion, there isn't really any room for BS.

OP of this thread is not about what will make a good 3-4 defense or what Greenlaw's role will be moving forward.

I agree that tackling is paramount for a defense. I agree that looking back at an entirely different defensive scheme isn't useful going forward in projecting an individual's future, at least when the scheme change changes that player's position. I will say that the NG doesn't have to occupy 2 blockers to be successful. That's what I thought earlier this off-season and that is still a common style of 3-4, but there are many examples of a 1-gap 3-4 defense which is a bit more like the 5-2 of yesteryear than the stereotypical 3-4.

All this thread is meant to do is look at the impact that a particular player (Greenlaw), had on one side of the ball (defense), in the past (2016 with no judgement in this thread about moving forward, strictly a look to the past).
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Dwillhog66

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #8 on: April 18, 2017, 03:18:51 am »

It's a great post benny. Thanks for your input on here.

I will be very suprised if DG isn't playing on Sundays and believe injury is the only thing that will keep him from doing it.
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Iwastherein1969

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #9 on: April 18, 2017, 03:38:05 am »

Baffle you with BS? For a post that is basically just stats and no interjected opinion, there isn't really any room for BS.

OP of this thread is not about what will make a good 3-4 defense or what Greenlaw's role will be moving forward.

I agree that tackling is paramount for a defense. I agree that looking back at an entirely different defensive scheme isn't useful going forward in projecting an individual's future, at least when the scheme change changes that player's position. I will say that the NG doesn't have to occupy 2 blockers to be successful. That's what I thought earlier this off-season and that is still a common style of 3-4, but there are many examples of a 1-gap 3-4 defense which is a bit more like the 5-2 of yesteryear than the stereotypical 3-4.

All this thread is meant to do is look at the impact that a particular player (Greenlaw), had on one side of the ball (defense), in the past (2016 with no judgement in this thread about moving forward, strictly a look to the past).
sorry about the BS line...that was really too strong, perhaps I should have used the word hyperbole instead...Dre is a good kid and a more than adequate SEC linebacker but he's no Martrell Spaight....but Dre is the type of player you definitely want on your side and I'm glad to have him...not so sure he can play in the NFL although I hope he can and does....his size will hold him back...Dre's best bet to play on Sundays is to hopefully have enough speed to play safety for someone....the NFL  running backs would give him a hard time if he played linebacker professionally..again, I hope I'm wrong because I want to see good young men have a chance to fulfill their dreams by playing in the NFL and making great money for several years
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FANONTHEHILL

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #10 on: April 18, 2017, 05:12:35 am »

sorry about the BS line...that was really too strong, perhaps I should have used the word hyperbole instead...Dre is a good kid and a more than adequate SEC linebacker but he's no Martrell Spaight....but Dre is the type of player you definitely want on your side and I'm glad to have him...not so sure he can play in the NFL although I hope he can and does....his size will hold him back...Dre's best bet to play on Sundays is to hopefully have enough speed to play safety for someone....the NFL  running backs would give him a hard time if he played linebacker professionally..again, I hope I'm wrong because I want to see good young men have a chance to fulfill their dreams by playing in the NFL and making great money for several years

I find it funny that you think that Dre's size will "hold him back".  Martell Spaight entered his junior year at 6'0", 225 lbs.  Dre enters his at 6'0", 226lbs.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #11 on: April 18, 2017, 06:11:33 am »

all those stats only serve to baffle me with BS...we are changing defensive schemes from last year, we will have a different DC and will be playing USC jr on the road instead of UF at home this coming season....Greenlaw is a good player, not a difference maker but a player who will do his job efficiently....the most important position in a 3-4 is the nose guard and does he have the ability to occupy two O linemen...it won't matter how good or bad the LB's are this year unless the OL can occupy blocks allowing the LB's to get penetration and make tackles...the most important player on our defense will be #3...if he progresses as we all hope he does he will be unstoppable by the opposing O line...anyway, all of those stats were based on a different defensive scheme and although was a well thought out and presented opinion on Dre Greenlaw's 2016 season, I see little value in what Greenlaw did in a totally different defense...however, we need him to play well, but he doesn't need to be super man, just play solid defense and don't miss tackles...our defense must tackle well...watch the Tide's defense, rarely (except against Clemson) did they miss tackles, the majority of the tackles the Tide makes are made by the first defender on the scene....to make things simple, that's what our defense needs to do, the first man needs to wrap up or at least find a body part and hang on for dear life

First, good job Benny. Lots of work, appreciate the effort.

As for the D-Line occupying blocks, the thing with the 3-4 that I have seen is that while the D-Line is still trying to occupy blockers, it is a more aggressive scheme where the focus is on moving to and pursuing the ball carrier and in doing so, cancelling out gaps/holes in the process, as opposed to strictly moving into a gap and sitting down. The holes (or gaps) where run plays are designed to go can be constantly moving and they can expand or contract. Moving into where you think the hole is going to be and sitting down might leave you blocked and on one side of the hole while the other side is open, even a crease wide. Staying mobile and moving with the ball carrier helps cover the entire hole and not just some of it, or none of it. One is more aggressive, one is more passive, even for a defense.

In my opinion this more passive scheme is what we encountered LY but it seemed that most of the time the thought process of our defense was to be less aggressive in an effort to contain (for fear of allowing big plays). What I know as an offensive player is that I would rather have a defense playing that way instead of constantly attacking because they were just sitting there having to react instead of moving around and making it more difficult to be blocked.

If you ever played the infield in baseball the old adage of "you either play the ball or the ball will play you" comes to mind. You always wanted to "play the ball".

By the same token, our defense "let the offense play them" as opposed to being aggressive and because of this allowed the very thing to happen that they thought they were defending against, more big plays allowed.

I'm not sure how Dre being in or out really affected the defensive performance either positively or negatively because the entire front 7 played too soft overall. Not a knock on the players, but a knock on the scheme.

With regard to tackling, anyone who has played football at any level knows that the vast majority of the time you are better off going after the ball carrier with controlled aggression, rather than sitting down and waiting for the ball carrier to come to you. If you wait you might get lucky and make the tackle, but most of the time you are going to be left with arm tackling or getting juked out of your socks. So yes, tackling has to improve but aggression has to improve as does being aligned properly so you aren't out of position to make a tackle (back to scheme and knowing where to be aligned).

JMO
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #12 on: April 18, 2017, 11:21:06 am »

There's been some debate on Greenlaw's importance to the defense. I'd like to open with the obvious limitations of what I'm about to do. Namely, the box score does not tell the whole story. A team could register zero sacks and still get immense and game changing pressure on the qb. An OL can allow 8 sacks on the season (i.e. 2013) and give up a ton of pressure on the qb, but the qb will throw the ball into the stands rather than take the sack. The best cornerback is often the one with the fewest stats because the ball isn't thrown their way. DT's are often limited in the box score even if they are the ones making the plays and others just clean up, the cleaning up is what gets tallied.

Having said that, lets move on to games with and without. Which brings us to another caveat, quality of the games. All 3 non p-5 games came when Greenlaw played which really distorts things. So, I'll look at the total differences and the p-5 differences with and without Greenlaw. Another confounding factor could be the offensive potency of the teams played. For that, I call upon the likes of musk, biggus, factchecker, etc... to help me out there. I.e. how our defense did compared to the teams season average or something of the sort. How many big play (30+) yards allowed with vs with, etc...

Rushing: We allowed 177 ypg in games where Greenlaw was starting for us (246 ypg vs power 5 opponents) and 5.3 ypc with Greenlaw (6.7 p5) and 2.3 td/game (3.5). Without (all power 5 and all sec games fwiw), 188.5 ypg, 5.2 ypc, 3.66 td/game.

Passing: 221.6 ypg (274.5 p5), 9.95 ypc (13.4 ypc), 60.4% completion (62.6%), 1 int/game (0.75 int/game), 1 td/game (1.75 td/game) with Greenlaw. Without: 220.7 ypg, 14.2 ypc, 57% completion, 0.5 int/game, 0.667 td'game.

Defensive plays: 66.3 total tackles (68.75) * and this is including assisted tackles incorporated as per the official stat policy musk, 31.7 unassisted tackles (23), 5.9 tfl (5.5), 2.4 sacks (2.0), 1.3 ff's (1.5), 1.1 fr's (1.5), 1 int (0.75), 3.7 pbu's (4.25), 1.4 qbh's (1.0 qbh's) with Greenlaw. Without: 63.667 total tackles, 32.3 unassisted, 3.0 tfl, 1.0 sacks, 0.8 ff's, 0.5 fr's, 0.5 int's, 3.8 pbu's, 2.83 qbh's.

Verdict: Comparing only the power 5 stats accumulated, the team allowed about 60 fewer rushing yards per game, basically the same ypc, but gave up 1.3 more td's on the ground without Greenlaw than with. Teams rushed for more yards with Greenlaw in the game, he had basically no impact on ypc, but td's were much easier to come by without him. We gave up about 55 more passing yards with GL in the game, but almost a full yard less per completion though about 3.5% more completions. We had 0.25 more interceptions per game with him than without, but gave up over a full td more per game in the passing game with him than without. Cumulative, we gave up 111 more P5 yards per game with him in the lineup than without and averaged 1 more td with him in the lineup than without.

Our defense made 3 more tackles with him than without and 1 fewer unassisted tackle. Whether that's a positive or a negative I'm not sure. What is very positive is that even when accounting for only p5 schools, our defense made 2.5 more tfl's per game with him than without, 1.4 sacks, 0.7 more ff's, 0.25 more fr's and int's, pbu's were basically the same, but 1.8 fewer qbh's. IN p5 games, we were 1-3 with him as a starter and 3-3 without.

We gave up over 100 more yards and an extra td more against p5 teams with him, but that included Bama with a pretty high power offense, aTm with a high powered offense, TCU, and VT. The games without include the game against UF with a disastrous offense. So, while I tried to make it more fair by only comparing p5 schools, do not that it isn't a perfectly normalized comparison. While Greenlaw himself is not a key contributor in making big impact plays for the defense (tfl's, sacks, pbu's, qbh's, int's, forced and recovered fumbles), from the stats, he appears to really free up other players to make those plays as almost all of those impact plays per game dropped and quite significantly without him in the lineup. Of not is that qbh's greatly increased. Meaning, we were able to get more pressure on the qb without him in the game, but were less likely to actually make the sack.

Honestly, I'm quite surprised at the polarized results and was really hoping to see a clearer picture. My best guess for an explanation has less to do with Greenlaw himself and more to do with the scheme as a whole. Our defense was clearly more aggressive in the games where Greenlaw started, but they gave up a lot more yards and td's. Thus, perhaps they decided to play more conservative on defense, explaining the fewer impact type plays, but also fewer td's and yards.

*** In looking at the game by game stats, a key stat really jumped off the page that isn't Greenlaw related and needs to be told. Regardless of where you stand in the Great Tackle Counting Debate, Mizzou really jumped out as an anomaly. In that game, we had only 41 total tackles. That is really low to begin with. Missouri had 56 combined pass and rush attempts. Meaning that on 15 of those, no tackle was counted. But what was really, really weird, there were only 4 assisted tackles counted in the entire game (or for musk, there were only 2 assisted tackles :) ). To me, that suggests that their offense was excellent at really spreading our defense out and forcing them to make one on one tackles. The florida game had the 2nd fewest assisted tackles with 22, but that made up half the total tackles (Florida's offense wasn't on the field much) compared to literally <1/10th of the total tackles for the mizzou game (~1/10th for musk). Florida has 43 total tackles on 51 combined rush/pass attempts compared to the 41/56 seen for Mizzou. Mizzou really struggled offensively in the first half, but completed a lot of deep passes in the 2nd as I remember. However, 4 total assisted tackles is just mind boggling. Our defense was not able to gang tackle at all that game apparently.
Absolutely no question that in some many ways Dre is a leader and key component to this defense. Last year after his injury an already thin and generally not so greatly talented LB core struggled even more than usual. While Ellis was the senior leader and certainly one of its hardest workers, the loss of Greenlaw hurt not only from an overall tackling standpoint, but most certainly diminished the pass coverage and edge protection so badly missing especially toward the end of the season.

I look forward to seeing Dre (hopefully) having a healthy and effective season. Seems this time around he also has some  "buddies" who can also assist him behind the line of scrimmage. Been a LONG time since we can say that.
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bennyl08

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #13 on: April 18, 2017, 11:39:27 am »

sorry about the BS line...that was really too strong, perhaps I should have used the word hyperbole instead...Dre is a good kid and a more than adequate SEC linebacker but he's no Martrell Spaight....but Dre is the type of player you definitely want on your side and I'm glad to have him...not so sure he can play in the NFL although I hope he can and does....his size will hold him back...Dre's best bet to play on Sundays is to hopefully have enough speed to play safety for someone....the NFL  running backs would give him a hard time if he played linebacker professionally..again, I hope I'm wrong because I want to see good young men have a chance to fulfill their dreams by playing in the NFL and making great money for several years

I'll agree with you that he isn't the same type of player as Spaight, at least, he hasn't shown that type of play yet. Greenlaw is more in the same mold as an Ellis.

As for size,



I count about 13 players (and this is from 2013) that around Greenlaw's same current size. However, the NFL has really adopted more of the spread and fast paced offense even since then and there's been a bit more of a trend towards smaller players. Just a guess, but I'd venture that there's about 30 or so guys GL's size in the NFL now. His size (if it stays the same) would limit how high he could go in the draft, but it is far from being an impossible size.
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bennyl08

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #14 on: April 18, 2017, 11:43:17 am »

I find it funny that you think that Dre's size will "hold him back".  Martell Spaight entered his junior year at 6'0", 225 lbs.  Dre enters his at 6'0", 226lbs.

Spaight's junior year was with him coming out of JUCO, yeah? But the time the combine rolled around, Spaight was up to 236.

IIRC, Greenlaw the past year and a half has been pretty steady in his weight. Which would suggest that he's at his athletically optimal size (again, if I'm remembering the roster weights correctly).
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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #15 on: April 18, 2017, 12:54:15 pm »

Don't miss the forest for the trees.  I remember early in the year we were killing some scrub team and both Ellis and greenlaw played almost the entire game.  The fact that the staff didn't trust the backups even in a blowout situation should tell you all you need to know about our line backers last year.  That's not saying they couldn't make significant jumps this year.

While I applaud your effort, what you did is an example of an underpowered statistical analysis.
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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #16 on: April 18, 2017, 02:30:46 pm »

Greenlaw was dearly missed but, not the kind of LB we are going to need in the future.  We need to figure out how to get some studs....some SEC type LB.
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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #17 on: April 18, 2017, 02:32:35 pm »

Greenlaw was dearly missed but, not the kind of LB we are going to need in the future.  We need to figure out how to get some studs....some SEC type LB.

I believe we have some of those and are recruiting more. Youth at that position is our only problem.
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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #18 on: April 18, 2017, 02:33:39 pm »

I believe we have some of those and are recruiting more. Youth at that position is our only problem.
Well it hasn't translated to the field. And I hope your right.
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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #19 on: April 18, 2017, 02:41:29 pm »

Well it hasn't translated to the field. And I hope your right.

Youth, give it time and what is more, I think the entire defense will be improved this year now that they don't think that they need to lay back and wait for the play to come to them to try to prevent big plays. That was a huge mistake and all it did was contribute to the very thing that they were trying to avoid.
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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #20 on: April 18, 2017, 03:34:50 pm »

Spaight's junior year was with him coming out of JUCO, yeah? But the time the combine rolled around, Spaight was up to 236.

IIRC, Greenlaw the past year and a half has been pretty steady in his weight. Which would suggest that he's at his athletically optimal size (again, if I'm remembering the roster weights correctly).
Dre hasn't been able to do anything weight bearing with his legs this spring.  But his upper body workouts have been off the charts.  I didn't ask him his weight when we talked last week, but I will next time I see him.  Everyone will be pleasantly surprised how big he's gotten.  The boot is off and he will be off a running as soon as they let him.
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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #21 on: April 18, 2017, 04:53:19 pm »

If y'all think back Spaight wasn't that great his first year . And if I remember correctly DG is a bit faster also. Those saying he isn't an SEC LB clearly aren't coaches . All SEC as a freshmen and playing well as a Sophomore till he was injured
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bennyl08

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #22 on: April 18, 2017, 05:06:07 pm »

If y'all think back Spaight wasn't that great his first year . And if I remember correctly DG is a bit faster also. Those saying he isn't an SEC LB clearly aren't coaches . All SEC as a freshmen and playing well as a Sophomore till he was injured

Spaight was doing very well in practice and drills his first year here, but when it came to scrimmages and such, he really struggled to learn the defensive schemes which kept him off the field come game time.
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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #23 on: April 18, 2017, 06:36:15 pm »

So shouldn't We give DG his last two years before saying he isn't as good as Spaight ? He's played well as a Freshmen and Sophomore . I actually think the missed time may actually help in the long run
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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #24 on: April 18, 2017, 06:48:51 pm »

So shouldn't We give DG his last two years before saying he isn't as good as Spaight ? He's played well as a Freshmen and Sophomore . I actually think the missed time may actually help in the long run

He's had the better part of 2 years playing already. To date, he hasn't shown to be the type of LB to get a lot of tfls, sacks, ints, pbus, etc... like Spaight was oft to do.

Can't speak for others, but I've tried to be consistent in saying that Greenlaw hasn't yet to demonstrate that he is the type of LB to pile up those types of stats. However, I don't expect a major change from the style of play he's shown over the past 20 something starts he's had, but instead progression to be even better at the style of LB that he is. Especially in the 3-4 where the OLB's are usually the big stat pile-uppers. When Spaight was out there flying around doing stuff, he had Ellis back there too being the steady tackler. Doesn't make Ellis worse than Spaight, just different roles and styles of play.
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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #25 on: April 18, 2017, 07:03:33 pm »

He's had the better part of 2 years playing already. To date, he hasn't shown to be the type of LB to get a lot of tfls, sacks, ints, pbus, etc... like Spaight was oft to do.

Can't speak for others, but I've tried to be consistent in saying that Greenlaw hasn't yet to demonstrate that he is the type of LB to pile up those types of stats. However, I don't expect a major change from the style of play he's shown over the past 20 something starts he's had, but instead progression to be even better at the style of LB that he is. Especially in the 3-4 where the OLB's are usually the big stat pile-uppers. When Spaight was out there flying around doing stuff, he had Ellis back there too being the steady tackler. Doesn't make Ellis worse than Spaight, just different roles and styles of play.

I don't totally disagree with your premise but let's keep in mind that Greenlaw was forced into action as a true freshman without the benefit of at least one full cycle of mental and physical development and last year, he played hurt at least part of the time. In addition as a Sophomore last year he witnessed a breakdown in the traditional leadership that a young player expects to see (along with every other young player on defense last year) and some elements of contention and a lack of unity rearing its head.

Is this as far as he goes in terms of athletic development and being in a system that helps him achieve the very best that he has to offer as a player? I don't know, I guess we will see. I think his play rises to a higher level this coming season, partially because of the different system, but also because he is another year older, more mature and more confident and this time, he gets to be a part of that leadership team.

When one assumes the responsibility of leadership it has a tendency to do one of two things...either make a player play even harder and better, knowing his assignments, crossing all of the "t's" and dotting all of the "i's", giving even more than ever before, or they shrink into a place where they begin to lose their position. I don't think that the latter is who Greenlaw is, but I guess we will see.
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bennyl08

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #26 on: April 18, 2017, 07:08:59 pm »

I don't totally disagree with your premise but let's keep in mind that Greenlaw was forced into action as a true freshman without the benefit of at least one full cycle of mental and physical development and last year, he played hurt at least part of the time. In addition as a Sophomore last year he witnessed a breakdown in the traditional leadership that a young player expects to see (along with every other young player on defense last year) and some elements of contention and a lack of unity rearing its head.

Is this as far as he goes in terms of athletic development and being in a system that helps him achieve the very best that he has to offer as a player? I don't know, I guess we will see. I think his play rises to a higher level this coming season, partially because of the different system, but also because he is another year older, more mature and more confident and this time, he gets to be a part of that leadership team.

When one assumes the responsibility of leadership it has a tendency to do one of two things...either make a player play even harder and better, knowing his assignments, crossing all of the "t's" and dotting all of the "i's", giving even more than ever before, or they shrink into a place where they begin to lose their position. I don't think that the latter is who Greenlaw is, but I guess we will see.

He played injured during last season? I thought he was healthy up until he was injured in the Bama game, then he didn't play again until the bowl game where he started but was about 50/50 with Eugene.

Wise Jr broke his hand in the first game and was playing injured for pretty much the whole season. When did Greenlaw get injured?
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #27 on: April 18, 2017, 07:16:02 pm »

He played injured during last season? I thought he was healthy up until he was injured in the Bama game, then he didn't play again until the bowl game where he started but was about 50/50 with Eugene.

Wise Jr broke his hand in the first game and was playing injured for pretty much the whole season. When did Greenlaw get injured?

I was thinking that Greenlaw injured his foot at some point in the first of the season (tweak or something) and then was finally really hurt in the Alabama game and didn't play again until the bowl game.

I'm not sure what Wise's injury has to do with it?

Even so, I think my point stands, at least IMO.
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bennyl08

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #28 on: April 18, 2017, 07:30:06 pm »

I was thinking that Greenlaw injured his foot at some point in the first of the season (tweak or something) and then was finally really hurt in the Alabama game and didn't play again until the bowl game.

I'm not sure what Wise's injury has to do with it?

Even so, I think my point stands, at least IMO.

I brought up Wise Jr in case you were thinking of him instead. Googling to try and find out something about Greenlaw being injured before being out isn't productive due to results being about the injury that kept him from playing.

I didn't bring up the rest of your post because there wasn't really anything to say. Scheme changes and continued development could certainly change things for Greenlaw in terms of the stats he accumulates. Can't deny that as a possibility.

The only issue is I'm trying to think of Arkansas examples that would show a similar happening before and I can't. The closest I can think of is Brandon Allen, but he didn't really show anything new in 2015. He just became more consistent and polished in the things he had already shown.
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HamSammich

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #29 on: April 18, 2017, 07:32:19 pm »

A great example of why I enjoy Hogville.  People putting great effort into analyses and posts well beyond my ability (and availability) to match.  A good read. Thanks, benny.
I hope Greenlaw is All SEC this year, but I feel we're in better shape with LB depth at this point. Very anxious to see how the D looks this year with more LBs and fewer DLs on the field.

I could have saved you a lot of reading....


"greenlaw and ramsey will be stars, book it"
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #30 on: April 18, 2017, 07:35:21 pm »

I brought up Wise Jr in case you were thinking of him instead. Googling to try and find out something about Greenlaw being injured before being out isn't productive due to results being about the injury that kept him from playing.

I didn't bring up the rest of your post because there wasn't really anything to say. Scheme changes and continued development could certainly change things for Greenlaw in terms of the stats he accumulates. Can't deny that as a possibility.

The only issue is I'm trying to think of Arkansas examples that would show a similar happening before and I can't. The closest I can think of is Brandon Allen, but he didn't really show anything new in 2015. He just became more consistent and polished in the things he had already shown.

Spaight didn't really show much of his true potential his Junior year, but once the light bulb came on (through a lot of hard work on his part), he really stood out. But he had the benefit of being older and a chance for greater maturity than Greenlaw. Greenlaw's advantage is having been in the program for two years (though playing time is about 1-1/2 years). His disadvantage is changing defensive schemes. I'm told it is simpler in nature and from what I have watched, it should be. Is that enough, along with what he has been through, to ramp up his play going into his Junior year? For him and the team, I hope so.
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bennyl08

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #31 on: April 18, 2017, 08:24:24 pm »

I could have saved you a lot of reading....


"greenlaw and ramsey will be stars, book it"

What's funny is that this post clearly shows you didn't read anything.
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HamSammich

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #32 on: April 18, 2017, 08:27:22 pm »

What's funny is that this post clearly shows you didn't read anything.

Yeah I really didn't. I'm sure it's good stuff though...



But tl;dr is even for us old guys
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #33 on: April 18, 2017, 08:29:37 pm »

What's funny is that this post clearly shows you didn't read anything.

Ever notice that people seem to prefer video's, being entertained and responding with flaming remarks to actually having to read, these days? Reading will soon be a lost art (And no "HamSammich", I am not necessarily directing this at you).
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bennyl08

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #34 on: April 18, 2017, 08:41:47 pm »

Ever notice that people seem to prefer video's, being entertained and responding with flaming remarks to actually having to read, these days? Reading will soon be a lost art (And no "HamSammich", I am not necessarily directing this at you).

It's faster for me to read a transcript than it is to watch the video so I typically avoid videos, at least for getting information and news and such.

Ever culture has a counter culture. Romance music (Mozart) arose to basically counter classical music (Beethoven). The big surge in electronic music has led to a resurgence in popularity of folk music. With technology and science and information being such a big part of society today (the information age), it's only natural that there'll be a counter culture  of anti-science and anti-information. As PC culture becomes more prominent, so does enrollment in hate groups.
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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #35 on: April 18, 2017, 08:45:12 pm »

It's faster for me to read a transcript than it is to watch the video so I typically avoid videos, at least for getting information and news and such.

Ever culture has a counter culture. Romance music (Mozart) arose to basically counter classical music (Beethoven). The big surge in electronic music has led to a resurgence in popularity of folk music. With technology and science and information being such a big part of society today (the information age), it's only natural that there'll be a counter culture  of anti-science and anti-information. As PC culture becomes more prominent, so does enrollment in hate groups.

I was just trying to look at in a light hearted way, not looking for a cultural analysis. ;)
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Großer Kriegschwein

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #36 on: April 18, 2017, 08:57:43 pm »

Last year it just seemed every time we plugged a hole, another one popped up and started pouring yardage out.

Concentrated on one area of weakness only to have another exploited by the 4th Quarter.
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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #37 on: April 18, 2017, 08:59:40 pm »

Last year it just seemed every time we plugged a hole, another one popped up and started pouring yardage out.

Concentrated on one area of weakness only to have another exploited by the 4th Quarter.
I just hope we get back to good run defense first and foremost.  I feel like the only reason our pass d looked good on paper was because teams didn't bother to pass because running was so easy.
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Großer Kriegschwein

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #38 on: April 18, 2017, 09:02:26 pm »

I just hope we get back to good run defense first and foremost.  I feel like the only reason our pass d looked good on paper was because teams didn't bother to pass because running was so easy.

I would love for us to be able to stuff a run game for 4 quarters.

Yeah, that's probably why they didn't pass too much.
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HamSammich

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #39 on: April 18, 2017, 09:11:20 pm »

Ever notice that people seem to prefer video's, being entertained and responding with flaming remarks to actually having to read, these days? Reading will soon be a lost art (And no "HamSammich", I am not necessarily directing this at you).

I'm more entertained by paragraphs and clear thoughts.
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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #40 on: April 19, 2017, 05:17:49 am »

Spaight didn't really show much of his true potential his Junior year, but once the light bulb came on (through a lot of hard work on his part), he really stood out. But he had the benefit of being older and a chance for greater maturity than Greenlaw. Greenlaw's advantage is having been in the program for two years (though playing time is about 1-1/2 years). His disadvantage is changing defensive schemes. I'm told it is simpler in nature and from what I have watched, it should be. Is that enough, along with what he has been through, to ramp up his play going into his Junior year? For him and the team, I hope so.

As I recall it the light didn't come on for him until he started living in the film room.  This is one of the main things that made him such a great player for us.  He knew what the other team was going to run almost as soon as they did.

Something I hope occurs to all of our guys.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #41 on: April 19, 2017, 06:12:28 am »

As I recall it the light didn't come on for him until he started living in the film room.  This is one of the main things that made him such a great player for us.  He knew what the other team was going to run almost as soon as they did.

Something I hope occurs to all of our guys.

I think the staff indicated that was a huge part of it.
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lefty08

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #42 on: April 19, 2017, 07:13:34 am »

I would love for us to be able to stuff a run game for 4 quarters.

Yeah, that's probably why they didn't pass too much.

The Florida game comes to mind here
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #43 on: April 19, 2017, 07:56:48 am »

The Florida game comes to mind here

Good point. 14 rushing attempts for 12 total rushing yards. Now Florida did throw 37 times completing 19 of those for 229 yards (12.05 p/reception) but on 3rd downs they threw 10 of those 37 passes and completed just 1 of the 10. So the pass defense wasn't so bad that day. They even got a Pick.
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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #44 on: April 19, 2017, 10:10:53 am »

I'm more entertained by paragraphs and clear thoughts.

Entertainment is the key.  We aren't curing cancer here.  When I see a giant wall of text I either skip it or skim it for key points.  I'd like to see cliff notes used more around here.
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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #45 on: April 19, 2017, 02:38:42 pm »

I think the staff indicated that was a huge part of it.
The Florida game comes to mind here
Florida had a stupid game plan.  The next week they beat LSU in the BR running all over them. 
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #46 on: April 19, 2017, 03:21:59 pm »

Florida had a stupid game plan.  The next week they beat LSU in the BR running all over them. 

Not sure why you quoted a statement I made with regard to Martrell Spaight, which had nothing at all to do with playing Florida.
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FANONTHEHILL

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Re: Greenlaw's statistical impact in 2016
« Reply #47 on: April 20, 2017, 07:14:06 pm »

Dre is currently weighing 230 and looking good.  Running on the aqua treadmill.  Upper body has gotten huge. 
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