The road to 20

[SPAL]

Having 20 SEC wins would have us at least in the top 15 and maybe top 10 RPI.I don't see how that's not a national seed hosting a super. So,  We have 10 today with 16 remaining.....So, how do we get to 20....

Georgia.....11
@Auburn....12
@auburn..L
@Auburn..L
Ole Miss...13
Ole Miss....14
Ole Miss...L
@tennessee...15
@tennessee...16
@Tennessee...L
Vandy....17
Vandy....18
Vandy....L
@tamu...19
@tamu....L
@tamu....L

Steal one of those road games against Auburn and tamu,  sweep Tennessee or vandy.

That LSU game is gonna be difficult to swallow. How do you see it playing out?

[ricepig]

Having 20 SEC wins would have us at least in the top 15 and maybe top 10 RPI.I don't see how that's not a national seed hosting a super. So,  We have 10 today with 16 remaining.....So, how do we get to 20....

Georgia.....11
@Auburn....12
@auburn..L
@Auburn..L
Ole Miss...13
Ole Miss....14
Ole Miss...L
@tennessee...15
@tennessee...16
@Tennessee...L
Vandy....17
Vandy....18
Vandy....L
@tamu...19
@tamu....L
@tamu....L

Steal one of those road games against Auburn, sweep Tennessee or vandy, sweep Tamu. ?

That LSU game is gonna be difficult to swallow. How do you see it playing out?

Well, you have us beating OM twice, but we stay on 13, Buckminster umping that night?

Edit: never mind, you corrected it. Works for me, let's play it out.

[SPAL]

The ones I have  listed as wins, have to be wins. Losing today or not taking 2 from Tennessee or getting swept by anybody makes it next to impossible.

[tennesseehogwild]

Vandy is going to be a tough series. They are playing much better lately, especially on the road.

[BroyledNutts]

Really need to go 2-1 the rest of the way. If we drop 2 at Auburn, we'll need to sweep Tennessee (really should anyway) ... Also can't lose another home series, can't get swept at all - need to take 2/3 from Vandy, which will be tough even at home, to see the outside possibility of a national seed ... I don't see a super happening though... there may only be one SEC Super, and right now everyone is still picking Florida or LSU ...if the SEC darlings fall out of host contention, look for those super sites to go elsewhere.

For the Hogs, Vandy is the make or break for any hope of Super consideration, provided we don't drop more than one West division series remaining (really need to win them all). May also have to win a couple in the tournament to pad the overall for super consideration. Win all remaining West series and that should lock up a regional host anyway.

Best case scenario would be to win enough to be a high seed in the 9 -16 grouping ... get paired up with one of the 7-8-9 Super host sites, with the outside chance of one of them getting beat in Regional play and having a shot to bid for the Super...

[Wisco Pig]

Thanks, SPAL.   Twenty SEC wins is a terrific goal, and I hope the Hogs can achieve it, but they've done it only once before, in 1999.   In only one other season (2004) did they get 19 SEC wins.

Your scenario makes 19 wins look like a good possibility, though.  The Hogs' lineup can mash from top to bottom.  However, DVH and Johnson have to find some more answers with the pitching staff to get to 19-20 SEC wins. These blown leads in the ninth are not a sustainable model.

[Razorback_Mack]

Really need to go 2-1 the rest of the way. If we drop 2 at Auburn, we'll need to sweep Tennessee (really should anyway) ... Also can't lose another home series, can't get swept at all - need to take 2/3 from Vandy, which will be tough even at home, to see the outside possibility of a national seed ... I don't see a super happening though... there may only be one SEC Super, and right now everyone is still picking Florida or LSU ...if the SEC darlings fall out of host contention, look for those super sites to go elsewhere.

For the Hogs, Vandy is the make or break for any hope of Super consideration, provided we don't drop more than one West division series remaining (really need to win them all). May also have to win a couple in the tournament to pad the overall for super consideration. Win all remaining West series and that should lock up a regional host anyway.

Best case scenario would be to win enough to be a high seed in the 9 -16 grouping ... get paired up with one of the 7-8-9 Super host sites, with the outside chance of one of them getting beat in Regional play and having a shot to bid for the Super...

I wouldnt say we "should" sweep Tennessee. They've been playing really well the last two weekends. Their last five games have all been one run games. They've won two of those games against really tough opponents in Florida and Auburn. Honestly, there's  not a team in this league bad enough to be an expected sweep. Win the series and everything else is just gravy.

[BroyledNutts]

I wouldnt say we "should" sweep Tennessee. They've been playing really well the last two weekends. Their last five games have all been one run games. They've won two of those games against really tough opponents in Florida and Auburn. Honestly, there's  not a team in this league bad enough to be an expected sweep. Win the series and everything else is just gravy.

While I agree with your sentiments, the selection committee will look at Tennessee differently. If we're playing out the idea of hosting or Super hosting, Tennessee would need to be a sweep - weaker team in their division, RPI of 42, 3-8 against Top 50 ... a loss to them would drop Arkansas' RPI enough to eliminate a Super selection.

BTW, a home loss to Georgia (RPI 105, 3-11 Top 50) today would do as much damage as a loss to Tennessee, but with so many games left there is the opportunity for repair. Notice our RPI hasn't moved with 2 home wins over Georgia - Tenner comes so late in the regular season a road loss there would be hard to recover from RPI wise ... also why we can't afford a loss to Memphis in either game.

[SPAL]

While I agree with your sentiments, the selection committee will look at Tennessee differently. If we're playing out the idea of hosting or Super hosting, Tennessee would need to be a sweep - weaker team in their division, RPI of 42, 3-8 against Top 50 ... a loss to them would drop Arkansas' RPI enough to eliminate a Super selection.

BTW, a home loss to Georgia (RPI 105, 3-11 Top 50) today would do as much damage as a loss to Tennessee, but with so many games left there is the opportunity for repair. Notice our RPI hasn't moved with 2 home wins over Georgia - Tenner comes so late in the regular season a road loss there would be hard to recover from RPI wise ... also why we can't afford a loss to Memphis in either game.

Agree, but I'm not certain a sweep is a must. It is a road series against a current top 50. A series win will be huge. A sweep does become necessary if we drop a game I listed as a W.

[SPAL]

Thanks, SPAL.   Twenty SEC wins is a terrific goal, and I hope the Hogs can achieve it, but they've done it only once before, in 1999.   In only one other season (2004) did they get 19 SEC wins.

Your scenario makes 19 wins look like a good possibility, though.  The Hogs' lineup can mash from top to bottom.  However, DVH and Johnson have to find some more answers with the pitching staff to get to 19-20 SEC wins. These blown leads in the ninth are not a sustainable model.

True. It's a mighty accomplishment...But we have a good start and the setup to finish.

[Wisco Pig]

True. It's a mighty accomplishment...But we have a good start and the setup to finish.

:razorback: :razorback: :razorback:

[ThisTeetsTaken]

True. It's a mighty accomplishment...But we have a good start and the setup to finish.

Yep this years schedule is the most favorable I can remember.  I'll be disappointed if we don't win 19.  That's saying a lot.

[Supermark101]

Hopefully I'm wrong, but I think we need more than 20 to get a national seed. We have a lose to Bama and it's 180 rpi. We will not play the top 3 from the east. We lost the series to the "best" team will played. This will come up at selection time.

[SPAL]

Hopefully I'm wrong, but I think we need more than 20 to get a national seed. We have a lose to Bama and it's 180 rpi. Weven will not play the top 3 from the east. We lost the series to our "best" team will played. This will come up at selection time.

RPI is currently 20. If we make it to 20 wins, our RPI will be top 15 at worst. We have a SOS in the 60's that will be much better as we play Auburn, ole Miss, vandy, and tamu. That bama loss isn't gonna hurt us. Our record against top 50 will be good.

[JHicks3636]

Last year Ole Miss and Vandy hosted a regional winning 18 SEC games, LSU and Florida had 19, South Carolina and A&M 20 and Miss. State 21. A&M, Florida, LSU and Miss. State were national seeds.

[jry04]

Having 20 SEC wins would have us at least in the top 15 and maybe top 10 RPI.I don't see how that's not a national seed hosting a super. So,  We have 10 today with 16 remaining.....So, how do we get to 20....

Georgia.....11
@Auburn....12
@auburn..L
@Auburn..L
Ole Miss...13
Ole Miss....14
Ole Miss...L
@tennessee...15
@tennessee...16
@Tennessee...L
Vandy....17
Vandy....18
Vandy....L
@tamu...19
@tamu....L
@tamu....L

Steal one of those road games against Auburn and tamu,  sweep Tennessee or vandy.

That LSU game is gonna be difficult to swallow. How do you see it playing out?

Before Warren Nolan changed their format, they projected us going 40-15 (20-10) with a projected RPI of 23. The odds are that we will not reach the top 10 RPI with just 20 wins, and top 15 may be pushing it. The thing that is hurts us is Missouri has dropped out of the top 50, Rhode Island is out of the top 50, Bama is approaching being a 200+ team, and we get UGA and Tennessee instead of UK, SC, or Florida. The good news is we have 3 winnable series left, and the boost you get form road wins is huge. A home loss to anyone left on our schedule will drop us anywhere from 5-10 spots depending on the team. We dropped 6 or 7 spots after losing game 3 to LSU, and they were top 30 at the time of game 3.


I know Auburn has been playing well, but I personally think we take that series. It won't be easy, but their batting average is not good, they only had 10 homeruns entering the weekend, and their bullpen is very shaky outside of a few guys. Before this weekend, we had a .08 better fielding % than them, 40 more homeruns, and had scored almost 40 more total runs than them. We also have a better team ERA. They have 2 of the best starters in the league, but outside of them their staff as a whole is not very good. I personally just think we match up better with a team that relies on great starting pitching than a team that can smash the ball. LSU struggled to score runs coming into our series, and we tattooed their stud pitchers. If not for a choke we win the series. Missouri had a star pitcher, and we crushed him. The Bryant and Rhode Island all-americans got rocked. It seems like if you rely only on pitching and don't have sufficient bats against us, then sooner or later we will put up a crooked number and beat your ace. I see that playing out v Auburn.

[dotnet]

I think this is a pretty good guess of what will happen.  I wouldn't be shocked to see a win vs Auburn or a&m but a loss to Ole Miss or Vandy... but on the whole, going 7-3 in SEC series with a sweep thrown is something I'll take every year

[Birminghog]

I know Auburn has been playing well, but I personally think we take that series.  They have 2 of the best starters in the league, but outside of them their staff as a whole is not very good.

How deep in the game do their starters tend to go, especially the two referenced?

[factchecker]

How deep in the game do their starters tend to go, especially the two referenced?

Keegan Thompson has pitched 48.2 innings in 8 appearances (all starts).  That's around 6 innings a game.

Casey Mize has pitched 58.66 innings in 9 appearances (all starts).  That puts him between 6 and 7 innings per game.

I'm not sure on the pitch count but I bet both will go deep if needed.

[HogFansReunited]

It doesn't matter how good their pitchers are if our batters are on. We seem to make some of the best pitchers look little league.

[southarkhog06]

Baseball is baseball, so there's no telling but I have watched Auburn play and if knight and stephan are on I don't see them getting more than a run or 2. Their offense reminds me of our 2012 lineup.

[ThisTeetsTaken]

It doesn't matter how good their pitchers are if our batters are on. We seem to make some of the best pitchers look little league.

LSU has 3 really good ones and we made the first two look average.

[HogFansReunited]

LSU has 3 really good ones and we made the first two look average.

I'm still upset about game 2.

[lakecityhog]

The key to me is Kopps and Reindl in the middle relief role, if those 2 can come in and eat up2 or 3 innings we have a pretty good shot at the 1st 2 games of any series. If we can get to Chadwick/Taco with a decent cushion I think 1 of them can get 3 outs for us.

Do we have a single lefty contributing?

[factchecker]

Do we have a single lefty contributing?

Kacey Murphy is a good mid-week guy. Matt Cronin and Weston Rogers are the other lefties.  Evan Lee has pitched some as well.

[lakecityhog]

It just doesn't ever get easier in the SEC West! LSU seems to be on a roll, Auburn has played well all year and Mississippi State is on fire right now. The least little stumble and any one of the top 4 teams can fall like a rock!

[Kevin]

a&m started bad, but they are now rolling

[SPAL]

So far, we are on the pace I said we would be. We didn't steal one at Auburn. Our next step is to win the ole Miss series.

[jry04]

So far, we are on the pace I said we would be. We didn't steal one at Auburn. Our next step is to win the ole Miss series.

Definitely looking good. The biggest thing that is helping us is our opponents continue to win. Miami has gone from high 200s to low 200s. They have won 9 of their last 12, with 3 of them being v teams in the top 115 of the RPI. Bryant went from middle 200s to the 130s. Rhode Island and LT have been hovering around the top 50. There have been many nights that our win itself hasn't bumped us, but then when all of the results go final we get bumped 2-3 spots because the results are in our favor. Just stay the course and hope they keep winning and we will be in great shape. We need some teams ahead of us to lose, too.

Win 3 of our next 4 series and we should be top 10.

[southarkhog06]

No more midweek games will help us a lot, our pitchers just look like they are running on fumes, so does Koch.

[Kevin]

No more midweek games will help us a lot, our pitchers just look like they are running on fumes, so does Koch.

totally agree on Koch. he has missed a lot of pitches over the last couple of weeks, he was mashing earlier

[southarkhog06]

totally agree on Koch. he has missed a lot of pitches over the last couple of weeks, he was mashing earlier

Catching is hard on your body, not too mention we have several 'breaking ball in the dirt' type pitchers and he has schoolwork. I hate to say it but it may be time to give Gosser a game or 2.

[jry04]

No more midweek games will help us a lot, our pitchers just look like they are running on fumes, so does Koch.

Yeah, Koch has looked tired for a while. He is slumping a bit at the plate and his body language just looks like he is tired. I am not sure I have seen us have a catcher play this many games with such little rest. I feel like our last few catchers were given a break mid-week, and even last year Koch was starting to play 1-2 game a week towards the end of the season. We have played Koch in all 5 games in a week at times this year. I have seen him almost look disgusted after having to block some breaking balls in the dirt this season.

[Kevin]

Yeah, Koch has looked tired for a while. He is slumping a bit at the plate and his body language just looks like he is tired. I am not sure I have seen us have a catcher play this many games with such little rest. I feel like our last few catchers were given a break mid-week, and even last year Koch was starting to play 1-2 game a week towards the end of the season. We have played Koch in all 5 games in a week at times this year. I have seen him almost look disgusted after having to block some breaking balls in the dirt this season.

mcann his last year, caught a bunch

[jry04]

mcann his last year, caught a bunch

True, but he was a different animal at the time. A lot of people keep forgetting that Koch is just a sophomore. Also, McCann's last year wise started 11 games behind the plate, and appeared in a total of 21 games. McCann either sat/subbed or DH'd in those games.

So far this year, Gosser has started 5 games behind the plate and appeared in 13. Unless we get up big or down big, I cannot see Koch getting another break the rest of this season. Maybe part of the reason is because we played some tough mid-week games, or because no lead is safe.

[Kevin]

hopefully, no mid week games will help him.
we need his bat back.

[Kevin]

Can the hogs go 7-5 over the next 12

[PintailKiller]

totally agree on Koch. he has missed a lot of pitches over the last couple of weeks, he was mashing earlier

We discussed this before the season in another thread.  This is exactly what I feared would happen with him.  Gosser needed more PT mid week.

[jbell96]

Vandy is going to be a tough series. They are playing much better lately, especially on the road.

While I agree that Vandy is going to be a tough series, they have not been much better lately, they are 6-5 in their last 11 games. Even at the time of your original post, April 15th, they were 5-5 in their last 10.